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The Mansion Mafia - Hold on tightly to your secrets

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,807
Its ok,


Why So devious? If that was the breadcrumb, then definitely worth taking a shot at.

Its a personal fault of mine, But until I see a strongman flip I have trouble believing that they exist in a game. I like to work with what is presented instead of speculating. So based on that whoever GF breadcrumbed as their visitor Night 1 is the most likely scum target. If it is WSD then we should lynch WSD, if that is Kits then lets get kits.


Now my reads -
Group A:
1. BronsonLee - Town probably the safest person that could have possibly gotten the Double today
2. Zippedpinhead -me
3. weemadarthur - Null read
4. WhySoDevious - Scum possible (Probably NOT if Kits IS)
5. Kitsunelaine - Scum possible (probably NOT if WSD IS)
6. Fat4all - Town read
7. Hecht - coming clean on the BP is a town play, scum would have ridden the fake multi to the end - town lean. Before this I was leaning scum on him.
8. StanleyPalmtree - Behelit? totally town
9. Girlofgotham - Null

Group B: (i.e. the don't lynch Zipped crew)
1. Stuart444 - Town read
2. B-Dubs - flip flopping back and forth, more town than not but at least its a read
3. Kalor - Town lean
4. saenima - town lean
5. Muffin - null read
6. Z-Beat - Null read
7. *Splinter - No one is more surprised than I that I am agreeing with *splinter this much this game. Town read
8. turmoil7 - melon was a null read (for retro stuff) but Turmoil is pretty strong with a town like game!


See what I mean about " is it possible all the scum players are in one group"? I was posting earlier. all my scum reads are in the group I can't vote for.
You only have two scum reads? And they are a "they can't be scum together" pair?

Who is scum if Kitsu is scum?

Who is scum if WSD is scum?
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,000
saenima Stuart444 could you unvote Hecht for the time being? At least to avoid a turbo
Unvote

I'm ok with backing off a bit for now only to avoid a turbo, but nothing Hecht has said has really convinced me. I want to read his answers to me in more detail but i've been busy. I haven't had the time yet but i'll be off tomorrow and will look into Devious too like i said earlier. I would be ok with pushing Devious for answers today as well. I remember him saying he was feeling sick though, don't know how available he'll be.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,859
I’m here. I was out almost all morning. I have a horrible stomach bug and woke up with a bad headache.

What’s the point of claiming?

I’m not a vanilla townie but I hold no power, no information, no anything. I would have welcomed something like that cause at least I could have made a bit more informed voting.

Anyways, since I guess there are some townies with some RPs that might see me doing something at night, let me claim: Sleepwalker.

When that one guy claimed sleepwalker, I thought that maybe he was lying because I’m a sleepwalker, but then someone mentioned right away that they had been in a game with two sleepwalkers, so that explained that.

But seriously, a town noob with no access to information other than what I’m over analyzing.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,632
I’m here. I was out almost all morning. I have a horrible stomach bug and woke up with a bad headache.

What’s the point of claiming?

I’m not a vanilla townie but I hold no power, no information, no anything. I would have welcomed something like that cause at least I could have made a bit more informed voting.

Anyways, since I guess there are some townies with some RPs that might see me doing something at night, let me claim: Sleepwalker.

When that one guy claimed sleepwalker, I thought that maybe he was lying because I’m a sleepwalker, but then someone mentioned right away that they had been in a game with two sleepwalkers, so that explained that.

But seriously, a town noob with no access to information other than what I’m over analyzing.
Don't say which it is so mafia don't know when to target you but do you only sleepwalk on odd or even nights.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,638
I’m here. I was out almost all morning. I have a horrible stomach bug and woke up with a bad headache.

What’s the point of claiming?

I’m not a vanilla townie but I hold no power, no information, no anything. I would have welcomed something like that cause at least I could have made a bit more informed voting.

Anyways, since I guess there are some townies with some RPs that might see me doing something at night, let me claim: Sleepwalker.

When that one guy claimed sleepwalker, I thought that maybe he was lying because I’m a sleepwalker, but then someone mentioned right away that they had been in a game with two sleepwalkers, so that explained that.

But seriously, a town noob with no access to information other than what I’m over analyzing.
Is there any caveat to your role? Any drawbacks?
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,000
And I know you don't believe me, but my vest is gone. That is actual information.
I really, really hate to be that guy again but it's not actual information. It's just your word that serves your own interest. You keep talking about these things as if they're confirmed facts. They're not.

I feel like an asshole for even pointing this out.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,859
I mean, if you guys wanna lynch, I don’t blame you. Looking at my voting is exactly who I would go for... Grizzly train then a vote for FEP... but then, I’ve been wrong both times, so that should tell you something.
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,273
now we have two sleepwalker claims. is that a role that gets doubled up on a lot? turmoil was the one who claimed second sleepwalker, right?
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,260
I really, really hate to be that guy again but it's not actual information. It's just your word that serves your own interest. You keep talking about these things as if they're confirmed facts. They're not.

I feel like an asshole for even pointing this out.
Fair enough. But any claim of anything is just that. Nothing is ever really confirmed until there is a flip. But my stating that I know what scum did gives town the ability to look at people's interactions with me to see if there's anything there, and it gives scum a reason to want me gone.
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,632
now we have two sleepwalker claims. is that a role that gets doubled up on a lot? turmoil was the one who claimed second sleepwalker, right?
Usually when two sleepwalkers happen, one would sleepwalk on even nights and the other on odd nights. It's rare to have two that do the exact same thing.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,260
Fair enough. But any claim of anything is just that. Nothing is ever really confirmed until there is a flip. But my stating that I know what scum did gives town the ability to look at people's interactions with me to see if there's anything there, and it gives scum a reason to want me gone.
GF could have claimed "I know that Devious visited me last night." That doesn't mean anything unless there is a flip. Had Devious flipped we would have had an idea, but we wouldn't know entirely for sure until GF flipped.

We are rarely, if ever, working with complete information.
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,273
Fair enough. But any claim of anything is just that. Nothing is ever really confirmed until there is a flip. But my stating that I know what scum did gives town the ability to look at people's interactions with me to see if there's anything there, and it gives scum a reason to want me gone.
It only gives us a reason to beleive you if we see your flip
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,000
Fair enough. But any claim of anything is just that. Nothing is ever really confirmed until there is a flip. But my stating that I know what scum did gives town the ability to look at people's interactions with me to see if there's anything there, and it gives scum a reason to want me gone.
Fair.
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,273
Usually when two sleepwalkers happen, one would sleepwalk on even nights and the other on odd nights. It's rare to have two that do the exact same thing.
So the chances are that one was lying. Maybe one of them was lying to fish the other one out? Or they picked a weak role to fake!claim without expecting it to be in the game?
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,632
So the chances are that one was lying. Maybe one of them was lying to fish the other one out? Or they picked a weak role to fake!claim without expecting it to be in the game?
There's a possibility of someone lying. I'm more inclined to believe Turmoil, and there was no fishing going on.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,260
So the chances are that one was lying. Maybe one of them was lying to fish the other one out? Or they picked a weak role to fake!claim without expecting it to be in the game?
It's not impossible for them to both be sleepwalkers. Now the question is whether or not one of them is scum. Two town sleepwalkers is certainly...plausible, however. But it does lend credence to there being more tracking roles out there. If scum has a tracking role of some kind I'd be inclined to believe that they are both town though.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,859
GF could have claimed "I know that Devious visited me last night." That doesn't mean anything unless there is a flip. Had Devious flipped we would have had an idea, but we wouldn't know entirely for sure until GF flipped.

We are rarely, if ever, working with complete information.
I dunno who I visited. I get no information on that.

It just says that I will visit someone at random every night.
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,260
He chastised turmoil for claiming because he was in no danger and there was no need. It could have been him. Or maybe it was because it wasn’t him and he claimed for no reason.
I....I know. Never mind. My post wasn't there to damn you for any reason, it was just an example.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,638
now we have two sleepwalker claims. is that a role that gets doubled up on a lot? turmoil was the one who claimed second sleepwalker, right?
In the games I am aware of, if we had multiple sleepwalkers we had multiple watchers.

HOWEVER, I can only remember well was wolf 2.0 where I had GF's role (and completely melted down when I got lynched day 2)... I believe that they had two sleepwalkers, town had one... and Scum had one as well...
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,260
In the games I am aware of, if we had multiple sleepwalkers we had multiple watchers.

HOWEVER, I can only remember well was wolf 2.0 where I had GF's role (and completely melted down when I got lynched day 2)... I believe that they had two sleepwalkers, town had one... and Scum had one as well...
technically they had 3, where scum had 2 because the doppelganger copied the other one, lol
 

Kitsunelaine

My favorite cake is pie
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,273
I'm weary of people asserting that we must have a scum tracker because the two sleepwalkers MUST be town

that's pulling the cart before the horse and hella sus
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,807
If WSD is telling the truth, how many movements there can be at night?

The pulpit(dog claim)
Vote denier(most certainly scum, maybe a scum JOAT)
Scum's night kill
My sleepwalker
WSD's sleepwalker
The vig if the vig can kill at night/there is a separate night vig
A scum tracker likely if we have two sleepwalkers

Am I forgetting something?

How many of those are negative utilities to a BULLETPROOF self watcher?

My sleepwalker
WSD's sleepwalker
The vigilante kill if the vigilante can kill at night

3/7 of those are a negative utility if the vigilante can kill at night, 2/7 if it doesn't

I am still trying to make my mind here
 

Hecht

These are my salad days
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
4,260
If WSD is telling the truth, how many movements there can be at night?

The pulpit(dog claim)
Vote denier(most certainly scum, maybe a scum JOAT)
Scum's night kill
My sleepwalker
WSD's sleepwalker
The vig if the vig can kill at night/there is a separate night vig
A scum tracker likely if we have two sleepwalkers

Am I forgetting something?

How many of those are negative utilities to a BULLETPROOF self watcher?

My sleepwalker
WSD's sleepwalker
The vigilante kill if the vigilante can kill at night

3/7 of those are a negative utility if the vigilante can kill at night, 2/7 if it doesn't

I am still trying to make my mind here
We have 24 players, 7 of which are dead.
Of those 7, 2 were vanilla, 2 couldn't move until the other died, and 1 didn't move because he watched himself.

The only two that could move are the scum.

The assumed, known town PRs that we have so far that would move is Fat4All. That's it.
DayVig is pretty strong, and while it's possible they have a night shot, we don't know that they've tried to use it if they have it.
Then we have two claimed sleepwalkers.
Then there's the vote denier, which seems to be X-shot since no one has come forward to claim cursed.

All scum can be tracked, because in theory any scum can do the night kill. So that's positive utility for town.

I had forgotten about the vote denier. Now I'm thinking there might be 6 scum rather than 5. We know they had a roleblocker and a BP. I'm currently assuming they have a Strongman. There's also a vote denier. So that's 4 already. I would also assume there is a Godfather to throw off a cop. That leaves one more spot, which could be something investigative like a tracker or something to hinder town investigations, like a ninja or sleepwalker, because otherwise scum has no investigative abilities.
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,807
WhySoDevious did you breadcrumb anything?

Can you show us an example of how your reads changed after GF's claim? After mine? How did you saw the game before and after those events

I will have a look at that later