correct, but scum also isn't going to stick their neck out for one of their own on D1. If they did they're stupid
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The Mansion Mafia - Hold on tightly to your secrets
- Thread starter Brazil
- Start date
I unvoted Aeleus after they claimed and am now onto you. I've already mentioned today that I don't want to pursue Lux today and want to wait and see.
I could be wrong. At this point my town reads are only like 60% town, and scum reads hover between 60-70%. I'll watch saenima a little more closely to see why I have this feeling.
I think that there are 6 scum. 5 or 7, possibly, but I'm gonna go with 6 atm. If scum split their votes relatively evenly amongst the train and the not-train (i.e. 4 for grizz/lux and 2 for something else), then the not-train sits at 29% chance to hit scum vs the 24% chance to hit scum by looking at the other votes.
Actually scratch that, let me take Grizz, Aeleus, and Kopite out of the equation
40% to hit scum on the non-train
25% to hit scum on the train
That's a good way to play mafia for sure, excluding the train because of probability that works under baseless assumptions you make about the scum team, like that they split completely evenly between the trains. (I'm disregarding that you still call the GF lynch a "non-train", even if that isnt the truth, but I already said that)
Your assumption is based on the fact that I wouldn't come back to those voters later. I undoubtedly would. I'm talking about today.
lol
obviously I can't make a 100% correct assumption on how votes are split, but I can go with what the most likely, or average scenario would entail
they are free to do that. I'm just going with what I got and how my wormy brain works.
this is what the game boils down to when we have too much information to work with and it's why I look to the proponents of having too much information to work with as suspect
Oh, and I guess belated congratulations to BronsonLee for whatever his good news is. Are you having a little baby gritty?
I love that something most of our fights in this game have been on playstyles and tactics and not on actual players or events.
Godfather and I shouted about when to vote.
Stan and kits shouted about what the word strike means.
Muffin and Hecht are shouting about maths.
Amazing
Godfather and I shouted about when to vote.
Stan and kits shouted about what the word strike means.
Muffin and Hecht are shouting about maths.
Amazing
i'm against bad information
which is what provoking bad reactions and causing unfilterable chaosdoes
funny you should boil that down to just "Information" though, it must benefit you to quell the points i'm raising. OMGUS or suspect? I vote suspect
> Solving a MAFIA game with probability
You should look at GoT Mafia. That was enough work for me.
Vote: B-Dubs I think their vote reasoning has been super weak and their late vote on godfather yesterday seemed like avoiding a train.
OP
OP
==== DAY 2 VOTES ====
Day Start
Godfather (4 votes)
Kitsunelaine - #1,739
Kopite - #2,501 #2,511
B-Dubs - #2,528
Muffin - #2,649
saenima - #2,655
B-Dubs (3 votes)
Hecht - #1,967 #2,617
Hecht - #2,617
Girlofgotham - #2,724
Godfather - #2,725
LuxCommander (3 votes)
flatearthpandas - #1,876
Zippedpinhead - #2,121
SaucyKaz - #2,598
SaucyKaz (2 votes)
Aeleus - #1,731
Stuart444 - #1,796
BronsonLee - #1,916 #2,567
Z-Beat (1 votes)
LuxCommander - #2,101
turmoil7 (1 votes)
Kalor - #2,675
weemadarthur (1 votes)
turmoil7 - #2,665
Hecht (0 votes)
turmoil7 - #1,906 #2,665
Stuart444 (0 votes)
SaucyKaz - #1,800 #2,242
*Splinter - #2,141 (Double) #2,278
Aeleus (0 votes)
SaucyKaz - #2,242 #2,499
*Splinter - #2,278 (Double) #2,283
Kalor - #2,404 #2,431
flatearthpandas (0 votes)
saenima - #2,098 #2,655
Kitsunelaine (0 votes)
Hecht - #1,742 #1,967
Godfather - #1,781 #2,725
Post Counts:
Hecht: 156 Godfather: 92 *Splinter: 74 SaucyKaz: 69 Fat4all: 64 Kitsunelaine: 62 Girlofgotham: 52 saenima: 44 Aeleus: 43 B-Dubs: 41 Stuart444: 40 BronsonLee: 33 Kalor: 30 Z-Beat: 29 WhySoDevious: 29 Muffin: 27 StanleyPalmtree: 25 turmoil7: 18 flatearthpandas: 17 Kopite: 15 LuxCommander: 13 weemadarthur: 10 Zippedpinhead: 2
Current Countdown:
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
Day Start
Godfather (4 votes)
Kitsunelaine - #1,739
B-Dubs - #2,528
Muffin - #2,649
saenima - #2,655
B-Dubs (3 votes)
Hecht - #2,617
Girlofgotham - #2,724
Godfather - #2,725
LuxCommander (3 votes)
flatearthpandas - #1,876
Zippedpinhead - #2,121
SaucyKaz - #2,598
SaucyKaz (2 votes)
Aeleus - #1,731
Stuart444 - #1,796
Z-Beat (1 votes)
LuxCommander - #2,101
turmoil7 (1 votes)
Kalor - #2,675
weemadarthur (1 votes)
turmoil7 - #2,665
Hecht (0 votes)
Stuart444 (0 votes)
Aeleus (0 votes)
flatearthpandas (0 votes)
Kitsunelaine (0 votes)
Post Counts:
Hecht: 156 Godfather: 92 *Splinter: 74 SaucyKaz: 69 Fat4all: 64 Kitsunelaine: 62 Girlofgotham: 52 saenima: 44 Aeleus: 43 B-Dubs: 41 Stuart444: 40 BronsonLee: 33 Kalor: 30 Z-Beat: 29 WhySoDevious: 29 Muffin: 27 StanleyPalmtree: 25 turmoil7: 18 flatearthpandas: 17 Kopite: 15 LuxCommander: 13 weemadarthur: 10 Zippedpinhead: 2
Current Countdown:
Click here to go to the Vote Tool!
Got like four more pages to catch up on but it's time to get ready for work so it'll be a while. Just addressing this, no one passed me anything in the game. I had literally been gifted a bottle of sake irl and was cracking it open.
These people don't have an active vote. (Excluding Koplite naturally).
*Splinter
Fat4all
BronsonLee
Z-Beat
WhySoDevious
StanleyPalmtree
weemadarthur
Also there's a bug since the automated "Not Voting" list on the vote tool is still listing Grizzly despite him appearing in the Dead section.
*Splinter
Fat4all
BronsonLee
Z-Beat
WhySoDevious
StanleyPalmtree
weemadarthur
Also there's a bug since the automated "Not Voting" list on the vote tool is still listing Grizzly despite him appearing in the Dead section.
That I need to go bad and read and see if I agree with the votes.
So I said some quotes stuck out about Turmoil when I voted for him.
The first thing that stuck out was that they have a pattern of just following other people.
There's no thought put into the room choice, just doing what everyone else is and forgetting about it. They also say that they're going to follow Hecht, but Hecht hasn't even voted for Wee, just voiced some weariness over her.
Secondly is their shifting position on Lux, and one that isn't really explained. This first quote is from right before Day 1 ended.
They were voting for Grizzly at the time and were clearly willing to switch to Lux to prevent a tie, which is fine. Nothing wrong with that. The two of them were in his top scum and they switched position during the day. However, then we look at their first mention of their feelings on Lux on day 2.
There's two points about this quote in particular that stand out. Like the Wee vote, they rely on voting data rather than their actual reads on the person. Then all of a sudden they now think Lux is town, despite finding them suspicious at the end of the previous day. There's no explanation of why, they just shift position and never explain it. They also are weary of Stu, and iterate this multiple times, but hasn't voted for them once today. Instead they base their votes on vote data which is flawed, with the assumptions that they make. Like with the Hecht vote, he votes for him because he voted for three people. One of them are confirmed town but the other two aren't. He apparently town reads Lux and Kaz but they aren't confirmed by any stretch. He uses that assumption about all three being town to assume that Hecht is scum voting for three town, but for all we know Lux is scum.
Yes, using your town reads to narrow down your suspects is part of the game, and a necessary one. But here it just seems to go a step further than that. I think Turmoil was throwing shade at his scum teammate, Lux, on day 1 and now on day 2 they are trying to sweep that under the rug now that they seem safe. Maybe I'm way off base, but it's only day 2 and there's bound to be some clue in the chaos.
The first thing that stuck out was that they have a pattern of just following other people.
There's no thought put into the room choice, just doing what everyone else is and forgetting about it. They also say that they're going to follow Hecht, but Hecht hasn't even voted for Wee, just voiced some weariness over her.
Secondly is their shifting position on Lux, and one that isn't really explained. This first quote is from right before Day 1 ended.
They were voting for Grizzly at the time and were clearly willing to switch to Lux to prevent a tie, which is fine. Nothing wrong with that. The two of them were in his top scum and they switched position during the day. However, then we look at their first mention of their feelings on Lux on day 2.
There's two points about this quote in particular that stand out. Like the Wee vote, they rely on voting data rather than their actual reads on the person. Then all of a sudden they now think Lux is town, despite finding them suspicious at the end of the previous day. There's no explanation of why, they just shift position and never explain it. They also are weary of Stu, and iterate this multiple times, but hasn't voted for them once today. Instead they base their votes on vote data which is flawed, with the assumptions that they make. Like with the Hecht vote, he votes for him because he voted for three people. One of them are confirmed town but the other two aren't. He apparently town reads Lux and Kaz but they aren't confirmed by any stretch. He uses that assumption about all three being town to assume that Hecht is scum voting for three town, but for all we know Lux is scum.
Yes, using your town reads to narrow down your suspects is part of the game, and a necessary one. But here it just seems to go a step further than that. I think Turmoil was throwing shade at his scum teammate, Lux, on day 1 and now on day 2 they are trying to sweep that under the rug now that they seem safe. Maybe I'm way off base, but it's only day 2 and there's bound to be some clue in the chaos.
I think you're reading too much into turmoil's play Kalor, it looks more like dumb town to me, and that has nothing to do with his reads on me. For the record, I was typing this out well before Hecht's post.
I have no interest in lynching Godfather right now, same with Kaz. I could go for Lux but for me that's more of an information lynch rather than one that's grounded in evidence. I need to look into B-Dubs. I'm only bringing Turmoil up now just to get my thoughts out there while I remember them.
i thought a hangover would be the only mess i'd wake up to today
i gave *Splinter their double vote today, and I have one more double vote i can give away in the game
im a 2-shot town pulpit
my ability doesn't mention anything about a vote being taken from another player, so i didn't have anything to do with Kopite getting screwed over
if there is a vote block of some kind, I imagine its scum more than neutral/town
I'm not sure if I buy that scum knows what all the rooms do, I'd imagine that would make it too easy for them to fuck over town, I think they just got extremely lucky today
i gave *Splinter their double vote today, and I have one more double vote i can give away in the game
im a 2-shot town pulpit
my ability doesn't mention anything about a vote being taken from another player, so i didn't have anything to do with Kopite getting screwed over
if there is a vote block of some kind, I imagine its scum more than neutral/town
I'm not sure if I buy that scum knows what all the rooms do, I'd imagine that would make it too easy for them to fuck over town, I think they just got extremely lucky today
B-dubs is basically just sheeping kopite right now.
Why claim? We didn't really need this info right now. Nobody doubted *splinter at the moment.
why not? I'd rather have it clarified that the double vote and the vote being blocked were two separate powers.