t67443

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,914
He does this all the time.
Almost every time something interesting happened with the FTC there was always the comment 'This is bad for Microsoft, right?'

Ignoring all that though, my hope is that $MS and $ATVI renegotiate to close the deal before the end of the year with the stock purchase moving from $95 to $100. Bet there are low odds of that happening though.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,772
So basically if i'm getting this right. The TLDR of the situation is that the CMA was caught with its pants down and are trying to save face, and delay things, because they did such a shit job of handling this whole process initially that they need to throw out the case and start over from scratch because they can't trust any of the data collection or conclusions they came to initially. And the only reason they need to do that is because they backed themselves into a corner bureaucratically to the point that Microsoft has to restructure the deal so they can claim it changed too much, and they need a redo.

I mean, I guess thats what happens when your #1 partner throughtout this whole journey got its ass handed to it in court using the exact same arguments as you, while every other regulator stabbed you in the back by not being similarly ideological about it.

I think this isn't correct. The CMA could have easily just kept fighting in the CAT, and potentially gotten a remand. They've also been trying to delay. So when MSFT/ABK proposed to them that they delay the CAT hearing to pursue an alternative outcome, there is no reason for them to not agree to the pause and hear them out.

Now they've heard them out, as they agreed to. That's it. We got this runaway train because we assumed they might settle out of court in some grand fashion to approve it. And then we got this claim that they indeed did exactly what some of us thought might be possible. But in reality, all they said is our interim order is final and we're sticking to it. And within that interim order they do in fact give an option to obtain permission in writing to circumvent the order.

I don't think we were wrong to think it was possible the CMA would do so. But we might've been assuming the CMA is reacting with the intent to do so based on the reporting, which in hindsight doesn't go nearly that far.
 

SP.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,705
Seems like the CMA won't be happy until Microsoft pulls ABK out of the UK and causes a bunch of people to lose their jobs. I don't see anything they're doing with the intention of benefiting the UK or consumers.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,493
After watching a Bloomberg interview with a former CMA legal director it really seems like this is very much a stall tactic by the CMA to get the time they requested to prepare for the appeal process and have no intentions of changing their mind.

I really hope MS wasn't stupid enough to fall for their trap without guarantees, but it could be MS literally have no other option so they thought they may as well try.
I trust the MS' lawyers and hired guns focused on the UK are advising them well. I still think this is a face-saving measure for the CMA and that within a week or so we'll see the deal move forward.
 

LordRuyn

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,912
CMA don't want to monitor remedies, they're not going to accept it overnight because deal passes in the USA. It passed in the EU and in countless other countries. They don't care.
They're unlikely taking partial divestiture or UK centric licensing deals, because they don't want to monitor this, if it's what MS brings to the table this time.

Still reads like divestiture or bust (again) tbh.
The current EC remedies have an external and neutral third-party doing the monitoring, that was part of it from the get go.
 

FrakEarth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,307
Liverpool, UK
How would a new probe by the UK into this deal affect the deal overall?:

seekingalpha.com

Activision stock drops amid report that UK may need to do a new probe of Microsoft deal

Activision (ATVI) fell 1.2% in premarket trading amid a report that the UKs antitrust authority may need to do a new probe of the Microsoft (MSFT) deal.
Can they do a new probe and wave it through in 3 days? Because if not, that's a problem for MS. Starting to think MS shouldn't have agreed to stay the litigation in the CAT, and wondering whether it can be un-stayed.
 

DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,825
How would a new probe by the UK into this deal affect the deal overall?:

seekingalpha.com

Activision stock drops amid report that UK may need to do a new probe of Microsoft deal

Activision (ATVI) fell 1.2% in premarket trading amid a report that the UKs antitrust authority may need to do a new probe of the Microsoft (MSFT) deal.

there's a decent chance CAT would quash. Microsoft is supposedly divesting something that removes the SLC. so if the SLC doesn't exist then why does the CMA need to do another probe? It just speaks to the irrationality.
 

gifyku

Member
Aug 17, 2020
2,774
Almost every time something interesting happened with the FTC there was always the comment 'This is bad for Microsoft, right?'

Ignoring all that though, my hope is that $MS and $ATVI renegotiate to close the deal before the end of the year with the stock purchase moving from $95 to $100. Bet there are low odds of that happening though.

Very low odds. Non existent I would say. While there are tailwinds to ABK recently, mainly the toxic culture claims mostly being in the rear window plus the great performance of Diablo IV, fundamentally the business is still valued at a premium by the MS offer. The 10% jump that took it to 90 bucks was a reaction to the FTC news and not inherently due to ABK's standalone value. The Diablo IV initial performance is now factored in and now we will see how recurring revenue accrues from it plus how the 2023 COD performs.
 

LordRuyn

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,912
Can they do a new probe and wave it through in 3 days? Because if not, that's a problem for MS. Starting to think MS shouldn't have agreed to stay the litigation in the CAT, and wondering whether it can be un-stayed.
I would guess it depends on how extensive the restructuring of the deal would be for the UK territory, but from what we've heard from CNBC what MSFT is proposing is an "inconsequential divestiture". It's unlikely to close by Monday, but I would fully expect it to close by the end of the month. Despite them saying this is early talks, this didn't come out of the blue, CMA and MSFT have been talking for a while if such an announcement was made literally minutes after the PI was denied. This means the CMA probably already has a good idea of what MSFT's proposal(s) would be.
 

Pixis

Member
Oct 31, 2017
355
there's a decent chance CAT would quash. Microsoft is supposedly divesting something that removes the SLC. so if the SLC doesn't exist then why does the CMA need to do another probe? It just speaks to the irrationality.

The determination of whether something removes the SLC is not Microsoft's though - it's the CMA's. So they invariably have to look at it again (albeit on an expedited timeline) if the deal is restructured to be able to determine if that is the case (in their view).
 

cowboi

Member
Dec 31, 2021
249
seekingalpha.com

Activision stock drops amid report that UK may need to do a new probe of Microsoft deal

Activision (ATVI) fell 1.2% in premarket trading amid a report that the UKs antitrust authority may need to do a new probe of the Microsoft (MSFT) deal.

Separately, the Financial Times, citing one person familiar with the negotiations, reported on Wednesday that the CMA and the companies are expected to enter a three-month period of talks. The talks over a new deal were started by Microsoft (MSFT).

My thoughts on -

Merging parties don't have the opportunity to put forward new remedies once a final report has been issued, they can choose to restructure a deal, which can lead to a new merger investigation

Anything $MSFT offers is considered a remedy. CMA says "Merging parties don't have the opportunity to put forward new remedies once a final report has been issued" as a general warning to avoid any future merger to use this case as a way to offer remedies after final report has been issued.

I'm sure they have talked to $MSFT about this, and I think they'll let $MSFT close the merger in the rest of the world except the UK and hand down their new decision in 3 months.

Lets CMA save face, $MSFT gets to close the merger on time.
 

Deleted member 133522

Mar 20, 2023
583
You think they do something like "they reach a framework for the new deal, they execute it as this new deal and then they basically agree to pass"?

Pretty much. Based on the CMA, the divestiture being discussed would make it essentially a new merger.

At this point, the only thing preventing MS from closing in UK is the interim order that includes conditions preventing MS from acquiring Activision, or vice versa, for 10 years without written consent from the CMA.

For the final order, the CMA could hypothetically adjust these conditions. Or they could probably just keep it as is and just provide written consent allowing the restructured merger, conditional to a new investigation. I would assume the investigation could still result in MS being ordered to divest Activision down the road, but where as MS is working with the CMA on this, I doubt that would be a likely outcome.

CMA's final order stands. MS gets to close. CMA does their investigation, gets their concessions, whatever form that takes. Everybody wins (except maybe UK consumers lol).
 

Flavius

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,373
Orlando, FL
Could a restructuring of the deal trigger re-evaluations by other regulatory authorities as well? From a completely amateur standpoint, that sounds troublesome.

Unless perhaps the restructure is just to somehow formally "ratify" the contractual cures Microsoft has already used to satisfy those same bodies?

idk
 

Azerth

Prophet of Truth - Chicken Chaser
Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,268
i would be surprised if the ms lawyers didn't know that a new probe would or would not have to be done
 

Fiksi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
878
Since MS and their lawyers agreed to stop the hearings, they must've been confident it was the right option and planned for the CMA pulling weird stuff. At least the impression so far is they've handled things as well as they can. There's probably a lot in the background here we know nothing about yet

I imagine it's too early to declare anything here being a problem for MS, unless they call it out
 

DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,825
Could a restructuring of the deal trigger re-evaluations by other regulatory authorities as well? From a completely amateur standpoint, that sounds troublesome.

Unless perhaps the restructure is just to somehow formally "ratify" the contractual cures Microsoft has already used to satisfy those same bodies?

idk

not likely because this structural thing would likely be in the UK only. So it doesn't likely change the deal anywhere else.
 

killerrin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,255
Toronto
So I think the crux of the issue here is. What exactly does "Restructuring" mean? What has to change for the deal to be considered a restruture?
 
OP
OP
Idas

Idas

Antitrusting By Keyboard
Member
Mar 20, 2022
2,063
I think that we are going to be here for a while (new info from the Financial Times):

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

Microsoft and Activision Blizzard are exploring a restructured version of their proposed $75bn tie-up in a move that could trigger a fresh UK antitrust probe, according to the regulator that last month blocked the original deal. The Competition and Markets Authority said on Wednesday that the only way to return to the negotiating table would be to start from scratch with a new deal.

People close to the deal have suggested a divestiture could be a possible solution, but it is unclear what assets Microsoft would be willing to lose. Nonetheless, the proposed deadline for the deal closing on July 18 is unlikely to be met. Microsoft could pay a break fee of as much as $3bn if it falls apart.

The CMA and the companies involved have requested a stay in legal proceedings after the parties were due to appear in the UK's appeal court at the end of the month to challenge the decision. However, the court has to approve the request, and the FTC may still appeal against Tuesday's ruling by the US judge.

One person familiar with the negotiations suggested that the CMA and the companies would now enter a three-month period of talks. The person said there was a period of time "to discuss what the CMA really wants", adding that it was "way too early to speculate what's on the table".

The discussions over a new deal were instigated by Microsoft, according to one person familiar with the talks. A former CMA lawyer said it was unusual for companies to bring a reconstituted deal in front of the regulator to begin the process again.

#TeamOctober :p xD
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,170
It's about 10% of Illimina's annual revenue, which is basically the same sort of fine that the CMA impose. I think teh pointof the tweet is that regulators are not afraid to impose that level of fine
That's a good catch. I agree that dollar amount isn't representative of what they might fine MS if they tried to close over them. I expect MS' fine for doing that will be very severe, even if the ongoing negotiations are looking positive. If the CMA are acting in good faith here, and I assume they are or MS/ABK/CAT likely wouldn't agree to the delay, then I can't see MS rocking that cart. The fine and reputational damage aren't worth it, when there's little reason MS/ABK can't postpone their own deadline by a month or two if needed.
 

LordRuyn

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,912
I'm sure they have talked to $MSFT about this, and I think they'll let $MSFT close the merger in rest of the world except the UK and hand down their new decision in 3 months.
They would need to revoke and update the order they have already put out prohibiting MSFT and ATVI from merging or investing in each other in any way for that to happen. Ironically, they made a point of specifying that this prohibition order was still in place despite the talks. I wouldn't get my hopes up too much of that happening considering their stance on that order.
I was wrong

I think that we are going to be here for a while (new info from the Financial Times):





#TeamOctober :p xD
the-simpsons-mr-burns.gif
 
Last edited:
Jan 4, 2018
8,784
www.reuters.com

UK's CMA open to new Microsoft-Activision probe after u-turn

Britain's competition regulator said on Wednesday a restructured deal between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard could satisfy its concerns, subject to a new investigation, marking a climbdown in its opposition to the biggest gaming deal in history.

The CMA's decision to agree to reconsider the deal at this stage, when an appeal was imminent, has surprised advisers on the deal and many competition lawyers.

"It is really an unprecedented and dramatic turn of events," said Alex Haffner, competition partner at UK law firm Fladgate.

One source close to the deal, who asked not to be named, said they were surprised by the CMA's decision, saying it looked like the UK regulator did not want to stand alone from the two big jurisdictions of the European Union and the United States.

Becket McGrath, a partner at Euclid Law, said it seemed like the CMA wanted a way out of an "uncomfortable position".
 

BobLoblaw

This Guy Helps
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,360
Could a restructuring of the deal trigger re-evaluations by other regulatory authorities as well? From a completely amateur standpoint, that sounds troublesome.

Unless perhaps the restructure is just to somehow formally "ratify" the contractual cures Microsoft has already used to satisfy those same bodies?

idk
If the deal is just for the UK, then why would they?

www.reuters.com

UK's CMA open to new Microsoft-Activision probe after u-turn

Britain's competition regulator said on Wednesday a restructured deal between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard could satisfy its concerns, subject to a new investigation, marking a climbdown in its opposition to the biggest gaming deal in history.
Becket McGrath, a partner at Euclid Law, said it seemed like the CMA wanted a way out of an "uncomfortable position".
Don't hitch your wagon to Lina Kahn's FTC.
 

Citizencope

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,272
I only have 50 more pages to catch up. Don't know why I care so much what you jerks think about this. 😜😆
My wife had to have a birthday yesterday. 👎

Edit: Damn it now I lost my page because of my stupid post!
 

Deleted member 133522

Mar 20, 2023
583
They would need to revoke and update the order they have already put out prohibiting MSFT and ATVI from merging or investing in each other in any way for that to happen. Ironically, they made a point of specifying that this prohibition order was still in place despite the talks. I wouldn't get my hopes up too much of that happening considering their stance on that order.

The order explicitly states a merger can happen with written consent from the CMA. In addition, the existing order is an interim order. The final order hasn't yet been released and could 100% be modified.
 

Daramir

Member
Jan 20, 2022
1,462
Germany

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,493
Team late July, early August. I think if there was real worry about the deal failing or taking 3 months then we'd see that reflected in the stock price, which is down, but not dramatically so.
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,772
They would need to revoke and update the order they have already put out prohibiting MSFT and ATVI from merging or investing in each other in any way for that to happen. Ironically, they made a point of specifying that this prohibition order was still in place despite the talks. I wouldn't get my hopes up too much of that happening considering their stance on that order.

The interim order, which isn't even the final draft, specifically says they can merge with permission. These talks seem to be aimed at getting said permission.

I don't know about the rest they are saying, about allowing them to close in the rest of the world is just not a leap I am willing to make personally. I think the CMA isn't willing to concede that the world's market doesn't affect their own, which I believe is part of the reasoning that underlies a world wide ban.
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,937

cjelly

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,410
Why would Microsoft agree with the CMA's stay in legal proceedings if it meant the investigation just drags on?

Why not just take it to the CAT and get it over and done with.
 

L11ghtman

Member
Jan 19, 2022
1,333
From Reuters:

"Jonathan Compton, partner at law firm DMH Stallard and a specialist in competition law, said it was difficult to see what structural alterations the company could make. 'Were it to do so, it could face fresh inquiry from the FTC and or the Commission,' he said, of the U.S. and EU regulators. Euclid's McGrath added: 'how do you reset the clock just for the CMA process without resetting the clock everywhere?'"

So I wouldn't be so sure Microsoft could draft something just for the UK that wouldn't draw fresh inquiries elsewhere. Seems like it's a lot of uncertainty from here as things move fast. Really nobody outside of Microsoft and ABK has any idea how important the July 18 deadline is, so that's sort of a wildcard factor as well.

It really is remarkable how quickly we moved from "The CMA is the real test of this deal, if they block it the deal is pretty much dead," a few months ago to "the CMA can be ignored, sorry UK gamers." I think the best approach here is to listen to lawyers. Not sure anybody else really has a clue how this plays out.
 
Apr 29, 2023
603
One person familiar with the negotiations suggested that the CMA and the companies would now enter a three-month period of talks. The person said there was a period of time "to discuss what the CMA really wants", adding that it was "way too early to speculate what's on the table".

lol 3 months additional period of talks when they had the a boatload of time to talk things out before all this but the world knows they weren't doing anything but jerking off during their "investigations"
 

Deleted member 133522

Mar 20, 2023
583
I think that we are going to be here for a while (new info from the Financial Times):





#TeamOctober :p xD

I still don't see any world where MS agrees to delay the appeal without having some assurances they can close while a new investigation/conversations take place. Seems bizarre to me.

On the bright side, in any case, at least the thread will live on as long as the CMA investigation does!
 
Oct 27, 2017
13,028
Restructure the deal to close worldwide, deal with slightly amending the merger in the UK and let the CMA push the optics of it as a win.

Microsoft knows what they're doing here. Not concerned at all.
 

JahIthBer

Member
Jan 27, 2018
10,407
I agree, I can't play WOW anymore because I feel so out of the loop. And I could handle the Panda expansion, when most of my friends fell of hard.

A triple A story reboot that isn't a MMO or strategy game remake would be ideal for me, personally.
People need to keep expectations in check.
Microsoft hasn't even got out TES6 or Fable yet. If they are going to make a Warcraft RPG, it's not going to appear until the 2030's. Plus they probably won't ever do that when they can get people into the WoW ecosystem paying a monthly fee and purchasing MTX, that is much better for MS than a one time purchase.
 

Pancracio17

▲ Legend ▲
Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
19,026
www.reuters.com

UK's CMA open to new Microsoft-Activision probe after u-turn

Britain's competition regulator said on Wednesday a restructured deal between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard could satisfy its concerns, subject to a new investigation, marking a climbdown in its opposition to the biggest gaming deal in history.
This feels like a tacit admittance from the CMA that they were wrong and will now work to close the deal more properly. I dunno how it works out with the deadlines though.
 

Sangral

Powered by Friendship™
Member
Feb 17, 2022
6,159
I think that we are going to be here for a while (new info from the Financial Times):

#TeamOctober :p xD


But my posting made no sense huh.

Again, I stay with my opinion, they should try to close this thing over the CMA come what may, as soon as they can, immediately, eyes closed and through. Everything else leads to way way worse.

I know it's unprecedented, I know it could get expensive in fines. But what are some extra cost against potentially waiting more and more and more months for anything to get final, or fall completely through. Close it when you have the chance.
 

OfficerRob

Member
Oct 25, 2017
26,156
We are missing something here, Microsoft wouldn't agree to a legal pause for something that would drag on months (well past the deadline)