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DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,788
I mean if they believe behavioral remedies are not enough then a bunch of behavioral contracts with other companies isn't going to effect their opinions.

if it's a market, and the majority of players are on board and have signed contracts, it absolutely does have relevance.

the regulators job is to protect competition, industries, the country and consumers. If consumers see the deal is good and are for the deal and the market, most notable the smaller players are for the deal... and it has no negative impact to competition (it clearly doesn't) and it doesn't impact the economy or country (it absolutely doesn't) then the regulator is working outside it's mandate. They aren't doing anything besides acting out of personal preference.

You need evidence. Evidence the entity would dominate. Evidence that consumers would be negatively impacted. Evidence of intent. Evidence to support your claims. Ignoring deals is ignoring evidence that support the deal. Ignoring market data is ignoring evidence that supports the deal. CMA absolutely cannot pick and choose evidence because then they aren't being fair or just, they aren't giving proportional judgments and is acting contrary to their standing orders. That would make this process illegal. This is why MS wants to get regulatory communications because if they were informed of these things and disregarded it, then they are not making decisions based on facts.

As MS said during that CAT conference, they got more materials for the CMA process from the EC than from the CMA. If you aren't acting in good faith, you are likely breaking the law.
 

tt98

Member
May 19, 2023
198
That was essentially the judge's position when the CMA asked to be able to introduce new expert witness testimony as a rebuttal to Microsoft's witness testimonies from the 4 cloud providers. Again, Microsoft's position is that the testimonies from the cloud providers support their argument that the CMA in the wrong. And the judge told the CMA that most likely, they would much prefer someone from the inquiry panel or an economist that supported them be brought in vs. new expert witnesses.

I really would love to see the economist questioned and provide the rationale for the CMAs position. Didn't the CMA want to bring in a new expert economist? If they use the economist that provided them expert opinion, that doesn't bode well for them. It is contrary to what the CMA is saying....

 
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ThatNerdGUI

Prophet of Truth
Member
Mar 19, 2020
4,550
I really would love to see the economist questioned and provide the rationale for the CMAs position. Didn't the CMA want to bring in a new expert economist? If they use the economist that provided them expert opinion, that doesn't bode well for them. It is contrary to what the CMA is saying....

That's why they want a new one so they can have the next one carry their delusional narrative.
 

Wereroku

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,203
I really would love to see the economist questioned and provide the rationale for the CMAs position. Didn't the CMA want to bring in a new expert economist? If they use the economist that provided them expert opinion, that doesn't bode well for them. It is contrary to what the CMA is saying....

They can also just use their own experts. The Judge didn't care as long as they just used someone internally. But I guess they will get the chance to include their own new person at the next hearing.
 

gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,734
I really would love to see the economist questioned and provide the rationale for the CMAs position. Didn't the CMA want to bring in a new expert economist? If they use the economist that provided them expert opinion, that doesn't bode well for them. It is contrary to what the CMA is saying....


That wasn't a CMA economist or someone engaged by the CMA. He was a third party to the case providing his own response to the amended PF.

The judge - I think - was referring to bringing in one of the CMA's in-house economists to respond to Microsoft's submission in support of the CMA.

I don't think the CMA really thinks it 'needs' a new expert but was trying to juice up the complexity of bringing in new evidence if it were to 1:1 add new names to the case as MS is, in order to argue for pushing off the hearing timetable.
 

Kellemann75

Chicken Chaser
Member
Nov 19, 2019
580
Now that Netflix is making AAA game and have 232 million subscribers, the MS cloud marketshare f MS should be very low?
 

tt98

Member
May 19, 2023
198
That wasn't a CMA economist or someone engaged by the CMA. He was a third party to the case providing his own response to the amended PF.

The judge - I think - was referring to bringing in one of the CMA's in-house economists to respond to Microsoft's submission in support of the CMA.

I don't think the CMA really thinks it 'needs' a new expert but was trying to juice up the complexity of bringing in new evidence if it were to 1:1 add new names to the case as MS is, in order to argue for pushing off the hearing timetable.

You're right, there seems to be a bit of misinformation online. I was under the assumption this was an expert they brought on.
 

KnowinStuff

Member
Feb 6, 2023
206
The first case management meeting was a lot of fun to watch as an attorney. It is always nice to watch Mr. Beard, as he is always prepared, and is great at making his points effectively. It was a lot of fun to watch for proponents of the deal. There were some big wins for Microsoft and Activision as to scheduling. While Activision had some leeway to elucidate some of their arguments, in the manner of explaining their unique ability to contribute to the case regarding their application for intervention, this was not a hearing on the merits of the case, and is of little impact on the overall result. It primarily related to timing. I just wanted to point this out, because while there are frequent proclamations of "the deal is dead" or "the deal is definitely happening" we are very much in limbo, with Microsoft having a steep hill to climb to get the deal done but a great guide leading them on that climb. It will be interesting to see how it will turn out, but the result is far from a certainty in either direction.
 

LilScooby77

Member
Dec 11, 2019
11,100
Not Idas, and I could be massively wrong here, but to my understanding they weren't presenting it as new evidence but as existing facts the CMA chose to ignore during their review and the fact they did not speak to a single one of the companies Microsoft struck deals with. They argue that all those are existing facts that the CMA chose to exclude and Microsoft only found out about it through their discussions with the EU, which in turn only knew about it because they were in contact with the CMA.

If I am following their train of thought here, their argument is that not only are these not new facts, but because of CMA's conversations with the EUC, they are saying that the CMA knew about them and willfully excluded them from their review process, in addition to not speaking with any of the companies Microsoft signed agreements with.

Ultimately, they argue that these are not new facts on the basis that the CMA knew about them.

Did I get it right Idas?
Now this is something we've all been saying lol.
 

gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,734
You're right, there seems to be a bit of misinformation online. I was under the assumption this was an expert they brought on.

It seems to have gone into overdrive since the case meeting. But also it's easy to get confused and lose track of what's related to what - like in my own last reply to Agent Icebeezy . It's about the time when the transcript of the case meeting would be handy.
 

Pixis

Member
Oct 31, 2017
355
You're right, there seems to be a bit of misinformation online. I was under the assumption this was an expert they brought on.

Yeah - bit of confusion but Joost's submission was in response to the addendum findings of the CMA. It wasn't sought by the CMA but rather he took it upon himself to make the submission as a third party and the CMA accordingly published it.
 

Dingo

Member
Jul 19, 2022
776
Yeah - bit of confusion but Joost's submission was in response to the addendum findings of the CMA. It wasn't sought by the CMA but rather he took it upon himself to make the submission as a third party and the CMA accordingly published it.
So because the CMA published it he can be used as a witness for the case?
 

The Lord of Cereal

#REFANTAZIO SWEEP
Member
Jan 9, 2020
9,617
I don't know why, but I'm getting the vibe that these appeals ultimately won't matter and that the deal will end up falling apart come July/August...
 

niaobx

Banned
Aug 3, 2020
1,053
I don't know why, but I'm getting the vibe that these appeals ultimately won't matter and that the deal will end up falling apart come July/August...

I know why, it's because CMA has been against it from day one and they have the ultimate power to do as they please. People here go wild over the silliest stuff (CMA lawyer ANNIHILATED during case management meeting!), but it really does not matter and everyone just gets caught in this bizarre hype of their own making
 

Neo Ankh

Member
Oct 12, 2019
781
I would think Microsoft must have a plan B. Otherwise it's a waste of everyone's time and money to hope that the CMA will suddenly have a change of heart and begin operating in good faith after getting the case back from the CAT.
 

craven68

Member
Jun 20, 2018
4,550
Everyone assume the cma have ultimate power but , why the lawyer from the cma was this nervous if they have so much power ?
 

Dingo

Member
Jul 19, 2022
776
Because he was thrown in last minute and CMA has ultimate say in the case, not admin stuff
It all depends if Microsoft can sway the CAT to take away the CMAs reasons to block. Or maybe the CAT takes the case on themselves.

Nothing else matters. MS has the talent and money. Let's see on the 12th if they can get even better tools to box the CMA in like new evidence or experts.

As always the one thing that has been said about the case even from the judge is that it's an odd/strange one. So who knows at the end how it all plays out.

None of the o shit the layer got shreked son! Means much at the end. But it is entertaining.
 

Iggy1404

Member
Feb 12, 2020
111
I know why, it's because CMA has been against it from day one and they have the ultimate power to do as they please. People here go wild over the silliest stuff (CMA lawyer ANNIHILATED during case management meeting!), but it really does not matter and everyone just gets caught in this bizarre hype of their own making

I wouldn't be so sure. We are talking here about a megacorporation (Microsoft) that hired what is probably the best and most expensive law office they could find to fight this case for them. If there was no chance, I doubt they or ABK would be wasting time or money doing this.

Also if CMA cannot be overturned and has ultimate power, then what is the point of CAT's existence?

As others with much more knowledge than me have said, on many grounds this is a unique case. It's also a case which has gathered a lot of attention from highest political offices in the UK (and probably USA).

The decision to block also makes CMA (and by extension, UK) look ridiculous since every single regulatory body, except for them, has approved this deal. This is definitely not a good outlook for post-brexit UK, because it shows that the country is prone to blocking business expansion and is doing so with apparent bias which is accompanied by bizarre explanation of its decisions.

If I was UK's PM, I'd be greatly worried what this regulatory body is doing to a country that is trying to present itself that it's open for business and this decision shows that it's anything but.

We are talking about a merger that has a blessing of almost entire gaming industry (except for Sony although that is an incredible display of hypocrisy coming from a company that spent hundreds of millions of dollars (if not billions) keeping games away from Xbox) and nobody except CMA sees a problem with this merger.

I'd say that if the CAT judge remains impartial (and so far there haven't been any red flags), there is a good chance of this decision being overturned.
 

niaobx

Banned
Aug 3, 2020
1,053
I wouldn't be so sure. We are talking here about a megacorporation (Microsoft) that hired what is probably the best and most expensive law office they could find to fight this case for them. If there was no chance, I doubt they or ABK would be wasting time or money doing this.

Also if CMA cannot be overturned and has ultimate power, then what is the point of CAT's existence?

As others with much more knowledge than me have said, on many grounds this is a unique case. It's also a case which has gathered a lot of attention from highest political offices in the UK (and probably USA).

The decision to block also makes CMA (and by extension, UK) look ridiculous since every single regulatory body, except for them, has approved this deal. This is definitely not a good outlook for post-brexit UK, because it shows that the country is prone to blocking business expansion and is doing so with apparent bias which is accompanied by bizarre explanation of its decisions.

If I was UK's PM, I'd be greatly worried what this regulatory body is doing to a country that is trying to present itself that it's open for business and this decision shows that it's anything but.

We are talking about a merger that has a blessing of almost entire gaming industry (except for Sony although that is an incredible display of hypocrisy coming from a company that spent hundreds of millions of dollars (if not billions) keeping games away from Xbox) and nobody except CMA sees a problem with this merger.

I'd say that if the CAT judge remains impartial (and so far there haven't been any red flags), there is a good chance of this decision being overturned.

I would love for the deal to go through and think that it won't because CMA has made up their minds on this long time ago. The process is flawed exactly because CAT is probably going to ask CMA to investigate themselves

It's not like MS is the first big company to go against CMA, Meta surely has enough money for best lawyers too

Entire gaming industry except Sony/Google/Amazon etc, and CMA has already shown that they are more than willing to protect their business for some reason
 

Dreazy

Member
Oct 25, 2018
2,016
I would love for the deal to go through and think that it won't because CMA has made up their minds on this long time ago. The process is flawed exactly because CAT is probably going to ask CMA to investigate themselves

It's not like MS is the first big company to go against CMA, Meta surely has enough money for best lawyers too

Entire gaming industry except Sony/Google/Amazon etc, and CMA has already shown that they are more than willing to protect their business for some reason

Cat Is already getting smacked up, 1 country ain't stopping this deal lol
 

cyrribrae

Chicken Chaser
Member
Jan 21, 2019
12,723
not even the CMA can stop me recording this with my eyeballs and my brain (memory)
next case: CMA vs skeleton person

but really though.. not only no video anywhere, there's not even a transcript :( Feels like one of those cases where not seeing the reactions and delivery would make a difference :/

Seems like he is a KC and works for the same law firm as Daniel Beard.
wait the two "opposing" lawyers are from the same firm o.o? Or did I make a mistake?
 

Ombretoile

Banned
Sep 8, 2022
713
Fun fact: If South Africa, Canada, and New Zealand approve the deal, the total number of people involved would be (almost) 3 billion. The United Kingdom has a population of 67 million, which is 0.2% of that total.

And all this for the sake of cloud gaming, a barely emerging market.
 

Yoga Flame

Alt-Account
Banned
Sep 8, 2022
1,674
I know why, it's because CMA has been against it from day one and they have the ultimate power to do as they please. People here go wild over the silliest stuff (CMA lawyer ANNIHILATED during case management meeting!), but it really does not matter and everyone just gets caught in this bizarre hype of their own making
This is all uncharted territory, so nobody knows. Even the CMA lawyer tried to say that the dates the Judge wanted to set was something they've not experienced before in terms of timings and the Judge implied this isn't like other cases. Nothing is certain.
 

Reven Wolf

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,563
wait the two "opposing" lawyers are from the same firm o.o? Or did I make a mistake?
I'm not sure if it is the case but it's not unheard of.

Large enough forks can get away with avoiding conflicts of interest of competing clients by effectively creating a wall between the working lawyers.

It's not common for obvious reasons but I've seen it done before (not in person)
 

BobToc

Member
Jun 7, 2022
15
wait the two "opposing" lawyers are from the same firm o.o? Or did I make a mistake?

They're members of the same chambers, which isn't a firm in the way that you or I might ordinarily think of one. They're to a large extent self-employed.

I'd say that if the CAT judge remains impartial (and so far there haven't been any red flags), there is a good chance of this decision being overturned.

Not to go over this again but this somewhat misinterprets the role of the CAT. It is not to review the case on its merits, but rather whether the process has been followed correctly.

There is just a tremendous amount of wish fulfillment going on from all sides and way too much gets read into individual events. That said, as someone who's peripherally in this world, Pixis and Idas have been by quite some margin the most useful commentators on this case. The lack of understanding of the CMA, and more recently the CAT, in the broader media (including the UK media) is stunning.
 

show me your skeleton

#1 Bugsnax Fan
Member
Oct 28, 2017
15,616
skeleton land
User Warned: Platform Warring; Ignoring Thread Rules
i just want the CAT to pick up every single #SonyPony CMA huck$ter and throw them off a mountain in to a volcanoe and then announce Banjo Kazooie Fighters, and i dont think that's too much to ask for
 
MS exploring ways to close without the UK
OP
OP
Idas

Idas

Antitrusting By Keyboard
Member
Mar 20, 2022
2,023
New and very interesting report from MLex:

- Microsoft executives are actively looking at ways to close the acquisition despite a UK veto on the deal, MLex has learned.

- The CMA currently has an interim order in place preventing Microsoft from acquiring "an interest in Activision or any of its subsidiaries." It is likely to make that permanent very soon.

- The surprise speed of the CAT appeal process may dampen any calls within the company for it to close the deal regardless of the UK block.

- "Our priority is pursuing the appeal process in the UK, and we remain committed to constructive dialogue and solutions to address regulatory concerns," a Microsoft spokesperson said today.

- Microsoft has hired extra lawyers and has tasked some with examining how it could close the Activision deal, MLex understands.

- One option could include Activision exiting the UK for another European country in a bid to remove itself from the CMA's jurisdiction. Its games could continue to be sold via a distributor. One rub is that any such decision must be taken by Activision to avoid breaching merger laws that stipulate that merging companies must be managed separately and independently until they actually close.

- Another option could see Microsoft extend remedies given to and accepted by the European Commission to the UK unilaterally, even though they were rejected as insufficient by the CMA.

- The company is also actively contesting the CMA's draft order that would give effect to its veto, banning Microsoft from acquiring an interest in Activision for several years, and vice versa. The ability of the UK watchdog to impose a global ban solely to address concerns relating to the UK market is at the center of that, MLex understands. Microsoft could challenge the final order in court to seek to narrow its scope, to potentially allow it to close elsewhere in the world.

- Alternatively, Microsoft could seek to close the transaction and argue that the order was illegal in its defense when sued by the CMA.

- In mid-May, a reporter for CNBC asked Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella whether the company could close the deal and just stop selling Activision's products in the UK. The CEO responded: "Let's wait for it all to play out." Asked by MLex on May 12 whether it could close around the UK, a representative of Microsoft said it was a "complicated question," but "at some point we may need to think about it." A spokesperson from Microsoft advised against reading too much into the comments.

It sounds like MS is ready to close this no matter what :o

The next six weeks, until July 18th (the outside date in the merger agreement) could be a lot of fun :p
 

Deleted member 93062

Account closed at user request
Banned
Mar 4, 2021
24,767
- One option could include Activision exiting the UK for another European country in a bid to remove itself from the CMA's jurisdiction. Its games could continue to be sold via a distributor. One rub is that any such decision must be taken by Activision to avoid breaching merger laws that stipulate that merging companies must be managed separately and independently until they actually close.
😳

Depending on how much Microsoft offers Activision for the deal failing in the renegotiations, this seems very aggressive by MS.
 
Jan 4, 2018
8,617

DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,788
the UK government is probably going to start getting very uncomfortable with how the CMA is handling this
 

Dega

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,304
Damn I was wondering about that exact scenario of Activision leaving the uk the other day.
 

Deleted member 93062

Account closed at user request
Banned
Mar 4, 2021
24,767
I'm guessing Microsoft is going to push the boundaries a lot here because the CMA might affect any future deals they might have (gaming or non-gaming related). If they push a boundary and the CMA fines them, they'll like sue the CMA. They might be able to restrict CMA abilities in the future.
 

gofreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,734
- One option could include Activision exiting the UK for another European country in a bid to remove itself from the CMA's jurisdiction. Its games could continue to be sold via a distributor. One rub is that any such decision must be taken by Activision to avoid breaching merger laws that stipulate that merging companies must be managed separately and independently until they actually close.

Don't see how that would work given the ways the CMA has asserted jurisdiction and had it upheld by the CAT in other cases.

I mean, they claimed jurisdiction in Sabre/Farelogix on the basis that Farelogix had a customer in the US that had a flight sharing partnership with a UK airline, even though that partnership didn't even generate revenue.

Having lawyers look at these things is one thing, have them find a successful way out is another, and on challenging jurisdiction, it seems REALLY tricky.

(Also quite risky for Activision if they're left empty handed at the end, assuming they moved to make an even bigger departure from the UK market than suggested here)
 

Deleted member 93062

Account closed at user request
Banned
Mar 4, 2021
24,767
I know Bobby Kotick was likely puffing his chest when he made statements about the UK being "Death Valley" if they block this deal but it does make me wonder if those comments are hints that he'd accept "leaving" the UK to get this deal done.
 

msdstc

Member
Nov 6, 2017
6,874
So Msft is exploring all of the things that armchair lawyers in this thread and Twitter have been telling us simply aren't possible. I'm just gonna sit this all out, it's clear nobody in this thread actually knows what they're talking about.
 

cowboi

Member
Dec 31, 2021
249
New and very interesting report from MLex:

- Microsoft executives are actively looking at ways to close the acquisition despite a UK veto on the deal, MLex has learned.

- The CMA currently has an interim order in place preventing Microsoft from acquiring "an interest in Activision or any of its subsidiaries." It is likely to make that permanent very soon.

- The surprise speed of the CAT appeal process may dampen any calls within the company for it to close the deal regardless of the UK block.

- "Our priority is pursuing the appeal process in the UK, and we remain committed to constructive dialogue and solutions to address regulatory concerns," a Microsoft spokesperson said today.

- Microsoft has hired extra lawyers and has tasked some with examining how it could close the Activision deal, MLex understands.

- One option could include Activision exiting the UK for another European country in a bid to remove itself from the CMA's jurisdiction. Its games could continue to be sold via a distributor. One rub is that any such decision must be taken by Activision to avoid breaching merger laws that stipulate that merging companies must be managed separately and independently until they actually close.

- Another option could see Microsoft extend remedies given to and accepted by the European Commission to the UK unilaterally, even though they were rejected as insufficient by the CMA.

- The company is also actively contesting the CMA's draft order that would give effect to its veto, banning Microsoft from acquiring an interest in Activision for several years, and vice versa. The ability of the UK watchdog to impose a global ban solely to address concerns relating to the UK market is at the center of that, MLex understands. Microsoft could challenge the final order in court to seek to narrow its scope, to potentially allow it to close elsewhere in the world.

- Alternatively, Microsoft could seek to close the transaction and argue that the order was illegal in its defense when sued by the CMA.

- In mid-May, a reporter for CNBC asked Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella whether the company could close the deal and just stop selling Activision's products in the UK. The CEO responded: "Let's wait for it all to play out." Asked by MLex on May 12 whether it could close around the UK, a representative of Microsoft said it was a "complicated question," but "at some point we may need to think about it." A spokesperson from Microsoft advised against reading too much into the comments.

It sounds like MS is ready to close this no matter what :o

The next six weeks, until July 18th (the outside date in the merger agreement) could be a lot of fun :p

This tells me a few things -

Merger extension is not on the table and rightfully so. Analysts are giving $ATVI $90 target price, $MSFT is offering $95. With $3B in break-up and $12B in bank, $ATVI can easily match or even exceed Microsoft's offer. Also, Diablo 4 is going to be a huge launch.

Microsoft needs to close this before the termination deadline, or the merger falls apart. I knew renegotiating the deadline was not going to be easy, things have changed since the merger was announced and Activision is improving.

$MSFT probably will wait till June 12 meeting at least, and after that, they need to move quickly in case FTC wants to get a TRO, that'll halt the process for couple of weeks.
 

Brrandon

Member
Dec 13, 2019
3,071
" It is likely to make that permanent very soon.
This should not even be remotely legal. The CMA should have absolutely no authority to block microsoft from acquiring any of activision outside of the UK. They are trying to be a global regulator and are overstepping their bounds, forgetting that their job is *just* the UK.

Microsoft needs to close this before the termination deadline, or the merger falls apart. I knew renegotiating the deadline was not going to be easy, things have changed since the merger was announced and Activision is improving.
Microsoft and ABK have agreed to ignore the deadline if they could go to trial in the uk before the end of july