The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues)

kmfdmpig · Jan 3, 2023

Bradbatross said:
If the CMA and EC approve, what do the FTC have to gain at that point? MS will almost certainly fight the FTC all the way, and the FTC will very likely lose in the end. If they come to an agreement with MS on some remedies, they can at least claim they got a win out of it.

Yeah, at that point it seems like it would be Khan's decision of whether this would be the hill she'd want to risk her career on. Microsoft seems like they're willing to see this through and if they win that'd certainly be a major and high-profile loss for Khan.

Yerffej · Jan 3, 2023

So if it goes the distance, since ABK still wants this to go through, do they waive the fees and just renegotiate?

Madjoki · Jan 3, 2023

Yerffej said:
So if it goes the distance, since ABK still wants this to go through, do they waive the fees and just renegotiate?

Yes

bsigg · Jan 3, 2023

Yerffej said:
So if it goes the distance, since ABK still wants this to go through, do they waive the fees and just renegotiate?

They'll just submit a 1 page amendment that updates the dates.

dlauv · Jan 3, 2023

Lol FTC hijinks. This is such a cockblock. I wonder if the SCOTUS will prevent these in the future because a whole 'nother year for this would be insane.

BobLoblaw · Jan 3, 2023

Bradbatross said:
If the CMA and EC approve, what do the FTC have to gain at that point? MS will almost certainly fight the FTC all the way, and the FTC will very likely lose in the end. If they come to an agreement with MS on some remedies, they can at least claim they got a win out of it.

They had the option of discussing remedies with Microsoft before they decided to file their complaint. Lina Khan has said before that she isn't interested in discussing remedies with companies. If the FTC manages to drag this out like they intend, then that's what they gain. They know they don't have a chance in federal court, so they're trying to pull an "Axon" with Microsoft and ABK.

DriftingSpirit · Jan 3, 2023

BobLoblaw said:
I honestly don't expect anything to be good enough. When the head of the FTC is an ideologue who stated on record that they don't believe in remedies, then I have no hopes in a "good faith" negotiation on their part.

None of them particularly care for behavioral remedies though. It isn't anything unique to the FTC.

Rowsdower · Jan 3, 2023

ThePunisher said:
Does the FTC saying they have no plans to file in federal court and has authorized their employees to negotiate remedies really mean they are fighting it??

True, true. My bad.

Captain Tuttle · Jan 3, 2023

bsigg said:
They'll just submit a 1 page amendment that updates the dates.

Exactly, both companies want this deal to go through and it's why the FTC's seeming attempts at delay until August makes little sense

cyrribrae · Jan 3, 2023

Just because they're prepared (or at least publicly signaling that) doesn't mean they actually want to fight it for that long. I do think there's a case here for doing it - this is particiarly aggressive and MS have a good case. If they back down now, it may end up causing more problems in the future. But still... it's an expensive process.

That said, if they get to the point where everyone else has approved (big if), then what's the cost of a few more hundred million dollars spent on counsel compared to the 3-4bn breakup fee they'd have to pay ABK? lol. Anyway, it still all comes down to CMA, as it always has.

Wereroku · Jan 3, 2023

Yerffej said:
So if it goes the distance, since ABK still wants this to go through, do they waive the fees and just renegotiate?

They don't have to waive the fees those only come up if one of the parties leaves the agreement. They can just adjust the dates for the deal closing. However I could see the breakup fees going even higher on any amendments. So from 3 bil to 4 bil.

DriftingSpirit · Jan 3, 2023

VHDL said:
Correct if I'm wrong. But basically the FTC did all "this" just to see if the CMA or EU blocked the deal so they could put a medal on themselves?

The FTC's main tactic is to fight against the deal as long as possible and try to outright block it (they are highly unlikely to accept remedies). The secondary tactic is to use this action to spur on the CMA and EC to block it.

So, they are going to do all they can to stop it regardless, but the CMA and/or EC blocking (more weight in CMA's decision) helps cut down on the large amount of time it will take to fight on their own.

MaulerX · Jan 3, 2023

BobLoblaw said:
They had the option of discussing remedies with Microsoft before they decided to file their complaint. Lina Khan has said before that she isn't interested in discussing remedies with companies. If the FTC manages to drag this out like they intend, then that's what they gain. They know they don't have a chance in federal court, so they're trying to pull an "Axon" with Microsoft and ABK.

Except that all of a sudden (as per today's hearing) the FTC has authorized its staff to engage in settlement talks. 🤔 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Tigerfish419 · Jan 4, 2023

DriftingSpirit said:
The FTC's main tactic is to fight against the deal as long as possible and try to outright block it (they are highly unlikely to accept remedies

DriftingSpirit said:
The secondary tactic is to use this action to spur on the CMA and EC to block it.

You've got this backwards because if they really wanted this blocked they would've filed an injunction instead of doing it in house to block the deal. They are using the internal way because it's slower and they don't need to do anything and can make it go for a long time so Microsoft drops the case, right now the FTC is crossing their fingers CMA/EC block the deal and if they don't they know they're screwed.

MaulerX said:
Except that all of a sudden (as per today's hearing) the FTC has authorized its staff to engage in settlement talks. 🤔 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Because they know if the CMA/EC approve they're screwed so want to keep all doors open and if they settle then they can still say look we managed to get them to allow unions AND this other thing aren't we great.

cyrribrae · Jan 4, 2023

MaulerX said:
Except that all of a sudden (as per today's hearing) the FTC has authorized its staff to engage in settlement talks. 🤔 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm not reading too much into this. This sounds to me more like "nuh uh, we're not being intransigent and blocking the process!! We're TOTALLLLLLLY ready to talk with them about whatever they want to give up. Definitely." The last complaint from Smith was that FTC wouldn't even allow staff to hear the last proposal before they voted to block. I don't think this really indicates a substantive move in thinking one way or the other.

BobLoblaw · Jan 4, 2023

MaulerX said:
Except that all of a sudden (as per today's hearing) the FTC has authorized its staff to engage in settlement talks. 🤔 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Except like I said, there's no reason to expect a good faith effort despite what they've said, especially when the head of the FTC said she doesn't believe in remedies and previously denied Microsoft's requests to discuss them.

killerrin · Jan 4, 2023

MaulerX said:
Except that all of a sudden (as per today's hearing) the FTC has authorized its staff to engage in settlement talks. 🤔 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Just because they have she authority to engage, doesn't mean they have the authority to approve. It remains a stalling tactic because while the staff can offer amendments to the deal, Lina Khan and the board are under no obligation to actually approve it. The only thing that changes is the public pretenses.

BobLoblaw · Jan 4, 2023

killerrin said:
Just because they have she authority to engage, doesn't mean they have the authority to approve. It remains a stalling tactic because while the staff can offer amendments to the deal, Luna Kahn and the board are under no obligation to actually approve it. The only thing that changes is the public pretenses.

Not sure if this was intentional or not, but let's keep it clean please. :)

killerrin · Jan 4, 2023

BobLoblaw said:
Not sure if this was intentional or not, but let's keep it clean please. :)

No, it's the bloody autocorrect with swipe. The damn thing hates me -.-

MaulerX · Jan 4, 2023

BobLoblaw said:
Except like I said, there's no reason to expect a good faith effort despite what they've said, especially when the head of the FTC said she doesn't believe in remedies and previously denied Microsoft's requests to discuss them.

This was never about a good faith effort when there was no effort at all from the FTC.

Like the poster you quoted said, if the CMA and EC aprove this then there's a real possibility this doesn't go the distance. The FTC literally afforded themselves that wiggle room by now entertaining settlement talks. They know they can't win this in court.

The FTC will give the impression like they were tough on big tech and got concessions (settlement talk) and save a little face in the process.

Idas · Jan 4, 2023

The report from MLex about the pre-hearing has a few interesting bits of info that are new:

- Any potential remedy entered into with the EC and CMA will also be offered to the FTC: "The deal is undergoing review over in Europe and the UK and we are hoping that they will be resolved and if there are remedies that are appropriate we can come back to ... the FTC to talk about a resolution," said Beth Wilkinson (MS' lead counsel).

- James Weingarten, deputy chief trial counsel at the FTC, said that staff (he clarified that when he used the word "staff" he meant himself) is always open to a remedy or settlement proposal during or before litigation, although "There are no substantive conversations happening at this time."

- MS/ABK and the FTC agreed to an expedited discovery schedule (so they can start requesting and inspecting documents in a shortened time period).

- Beth Wilkinson told Chappell (the administrative judge) that if a resolution isn't reached with the FTC, the deal will go forward and close after a remedy is reached in all pending jurisdictions. But that the companies assume the FTC would go to federal court in that case.

- She also said that's why they wanted to front-load the discovery, just in case the FTC went to federal court because MS/ABK have a termination date of July 18, 2023. "We are preparing for all options", said Wilkinson.

MS sounds quite confident:

- They are still expecting to close the deal in the original termination date
- They sound positive about the review process in Europe and UK
- If they get the go ahead from the CMA and EC, and the FTC doesn't settle, they'll go forward and close the deal in the US (expecting the FTC to go to court)

Very interesting! Now let's see what the CMA brings to the table this month.

Dingo · Jan 4, 2023

Ms really are just lasafai moving forward against all the hurdles lol.
I remember when we thought Ms would drop the deal because of pushback so not to waste their accumulated good boy points.

Agent Icebeezy · Jan 4, 2023

Idas said:
The report from MLex about the pre-hearing has a few interesting bits of info that are new:

- Any potential remedy entered into with the EC and CMA will also be offered to the FTC: "The deal is undergoing review over in Europe and the UK and we are hoping that they will be resolved and if there are remedies that are appropriate we can come back to ... the FTC to talk about a resolution," said Beth Wilkinson (MS' lead counsel).

- James Weingarten, deputy chief trial counsel at the FTC, said that staff (he clarified that when he used the word "staff" he meant himself) is always open to a remedy or settlement proposal during or before litigation, although "There are no substantive conversations happening at this time."

- MS/ABK and the FTC agreed to an expedited discovery schedule (so they can start requesting and inspecting documents in a shortened time period).

- Beth Wilkinson told Chappell (the administrative judge) that if a resolution isn't reached with the FTC, the deal will go forward and close after a remedy is reached in all pending jurisdictions. But that the companies assume the FTC would go to federal court in that case.

- She also said that's why they wanted to front-load the discovery, just in case the FTC went to federal court because MS/ABK have a termination date of July 18, 2023. "We are preparing for all options", said Wilkinson.

MS sounds quite confident:

- They are still expecting to close the deal in the original termination date
- They sound positive about the review process in Europe and UK
- If they get the go ahead from the CMA and EC, and the FTC doesn't settle, they'll go forward and close the deal in the US (expecting the FTC to go to court)

Very interesting! Now let's see what the CMA brings to the table this month.

Long said that Microsoft is going to dare the FTC to take them to court after their wins with the CMA and EU.

YoungGunsII · Jan 4, 2023

As always great work Idas. I kinda wanna gift you a box choclate or something for all your hard work!

Idas said:
Now let's see what the CMA brings to the table this month.

This should be any day now, correct?

christocolus · Jan 4, 2023

Idas said:
The report from MLex about the pre-hearing has a few interesting bits of info that are new:

- Any potential remedy entered into with the EC and CMA will also be offered to the FTC: "The deal is undergoing review over in Europe and the UK and we are hoping that they will be resolved and if there are remedies that are appropriate we can come back to ... the FTC to talk about a resolution," said Beth Wilkinson (MS' lead counsel).

- James Weingarten, deputy chief trial counsel at the FTC, said that staff (he clarified that when he used the word "staff" he meant himself) is always open to a remedy or settlement proposal during or before litigation, although "There are no substantive conversations happening at this time."

- MS/ABK and the FTC agreed to an expedited discovery schedule (so they can start requesting and inspecting documents in a shortened time period).

- Beth Wilkinson told Chappell (the administrative judge) that if a resolution isn't reached with the FTC, the deal will go forward and close after a remedy is reached in all pending jurisdictions. But that the companies assume the FTC would go to federal court in that case.

- She also said that's why they wanted to front-load the discovery, just in case the FTC went to federal court because MS/ABK have a termination date of July 18, 2023. "We are preparing for all options", said Wilkinson.

MS sounds quite confident:

- They are still expecting to close the deal in the original termination date
- They sound positive about the review process in Europe and UK
- If they get the go ahead from the CMA and EC, and the FTC doesn't settle, they'll go forward and close the deal in the US (expecting the FTC to go to court)

Very interesting! Now let's see what the CMA brings to the table this month.

This is interesting. So MS and ABK plan to push ahead? I wonder why they seem so confident about the EC and CMA approving the deal.

LordRuyn · Jan 4, 2023

When this is all over, we really need to do something nice for Idas as a community, if only for the time he is dedicating to studying all the documents, providing us with summaries, and answering our questions.

Really, thanks man!

dudu0609 · Jan 4, 2023

From my understanding, now CMA's ruling is 90% key factor how this deal will go.
I am still not that optimistic about CMA's decision since they are the first regulatory body played very hard and is trying to block the deal in phase 1.

Hasney · Jan 4, 2023

dudu0609 said:
From my understanding, now CMA's ruling is 90% key factor how this deal will go.
I am still not that optimistic about CMA's decision since they are the first regulatory body played very hard and is trying to block the deal in phase 1.

They weren't trying to block the deal at all at that stage. The Phase 1 is designed to be harsh to see if it needs Phase 2 or not.

DukeBlueBall · Jan 4, 2023

Idas said:
- If they get the go ahead from the CMA and EC, and the FTC doesn't settle, they'll go forward and close the deal in the US (expecting the FTC to go to court)

Well. Well. Well.

Idas · Jan 4, 2023

YoungGunsII said:
I kinda wanna gift you a box choclate or something for all your hard work!

LordRuyn said:
When this is all over, we really need to do something nice for Idas as a community, if only for the time he is dedicating to studying all the documents, providing us with summaries, and answering our questions.

Really, thanks man!

Thanks!

That box of chocolates sounds nice, haha! :p xD

YoungGunsII said:
This should be any day now, correct?

Yes, my guess is during the next two weeks. But "January" is the official date.

Tigerfish419 · Jan 4, 2023

Dingo said:
I remember when we thought Ms would drop the deal because of pushback

I never thought that for a second, this deal is too big for them to be scared by some words, remember nothing till this point has been actual action to stop the deal it's just phase 1 findings. If Microsoft just folded after phase 1 findings then all their future deals could be harder to complete because they know Microsoft will fold, not only that but this purchase isn't even in a market they're close to be number 1 so if that is blocked say goodbye to anything where they are even more competitive.

LordRuyn said:
When this is all over, we really need to do something nice for Idas as a community, if only for the time he is dedicating to studying all the documents, providing us with summaries, and answering our questions.

Really, thanks man!

I agree! such a legend.

dudu0609 said:
From my understanding, now CMA's ruling is 90% key factor how this deal will go.
I am still not that optimistic about CMA's decision since they are the first regulatory body played very hard and is trying to block the deal in phase 1.

1) CMA didn't try block in phase 1
2) Phase 1 findings can be completely different to phase 2 findings
3) Phase 1 and phase 2 have different people looking at the deal
4) Phase 1 has a much lower floor to find complaints, phase 2 is a bit more thorough look, phase 1 is 'can there be a possibility in the world this happens' phase 2 'how likely would this happen, how should we fix concerns' sort of dealio.

dudu0609 · Jan 4, 2023

Tigerfish419 said:
1) CMA didn't try block in phase 1
2) Phase 1 findings can be completely different to phase 2 findings
3) Phase 1 and phase 2 have different people looking at the deal
4) Phase 1 has a much lower floor to find complaints, phase 2 is a bit more thorough look, phase 1 is 'can there be a possibility in the world this happens' phase 2 'how likely would this happen, how should we fix concerns' sort of dealio.

Fair enough.
However, I would rather to temper my expectations just in case to avoid big disappointment if the result is not what I want :)

Seraphs · Jan 4, 2023

January is going to be a long month, my anxiety going to kill me because of you CMA 🤣🤣🤣

christocolus · Jan 4, 2023

LordRuyn said:
When this is all over, we really need to do something nice for Idas as a community, if only for the time he is dedicating to studying all the documents, providing us with summaries, and answering our questions.

Really, thanks man!

Agreed. Idas is the 🐐

AImalexia · Jan 4, 2023

LordRuyn said:
When this is all over, we really need to do something nice for Idas as a community, if only for the time he is dedicating to studying all the documents, providing us with summaries, and answering our questions.

Really, thanks man!

let's buy him a book about japanese merger law so he can be ready for the japanese pub acquisition

Trup1aya · Jan 4, 2023

Idas said:
The report from MLex about the pre-hearing has a few interesting bits of info that are new:

- Any potential remedy entered into with the EC and CMA will also be offered to the FTC: "The deal is undergoing review over in Europe and the UK and we are hoping that they will be resolved and if there are remedies that are appropriate we can come back to ... the FTC to talk about a resolution," said Beth Wilkinson (MS' lead counsel).

- James Weingarten, deputy chief trial counsel at the FTC, said that staff (he clarified that when he used the word "staff" he meant himself) is always open to a remedy or settlement proposal during or before litigation, although "There are no substantive conversations happening at this time."

- MS/ABK and the FTC agreed to an expedited discovery schedule (so they can start requesting and inspecting documents in a shortened time period).

- Beth Wilkinson told Chappell (the administrative judge) that if a resolution isn't reached with the FTC, the deal will go forward and close after a remedy is reached in all pending jurisdictions. But that the companies assume the FTC would go to federal court in that case.

- She also said that's why they wanted to front-load the discovery, just in case the FTC went to federal court because MS/ABK have a termination date of July 18, 2023. "We are preparing for all options", said Wilkinson.

MS sounds quite confident:

- They are still expecting to close the deal in the original termination date
- They sound positive about the review process in Europe and UK
- If they get the go ahead from the CMA and EC, and the FTC doesn't settle, they'll go forward and close the deal in the US (expecting the FTC to go to court)

Very interesting! Now let's see what the CMA brings to the table this month.

Very interesting indeed. If MS and ABK get CMA and EC approval, and then amend then requirement for FTC approval, how long would the FTC have to file an injunction? And if they do file an injunction, how soon thereafter would the case go to court?

Witness · Jan 4, 2023

Idas said:
The report from MLex about the pre-hearing has a few interesting bits of info that are new:

- Any potential remedy entered into with the EC and CMA will also be offered to the FTC: "The deal is undergoing review over in Europe and the UK and we are hoping that they will be resolved and if there are remedies that are appropriate we can come back to ... the FTC to talk about a resolution," said Beth Wilkinson (MS' lead counsel).

- James Weingarten, deputy chief trial counsel at the FTC, said that staff (he clarified that when he used the word "staff" he meant himself) is always open to a remedy or settlement proposal during or before litigation, although "There are no substantive conversations happening at this time."

- MS/ABK and the FTC agreed to an expedited discovery schedule (so they can start requesting and inspecting documents in a shortened time period).

- Beth Wilkinson told Chappell (the administrative judge) that if a resolution isn't reached with the FTC, the deal will go forward and close after a remedy is reached in all pending jurisdictions. But that the companies assume the FTC would go to federal court in that case.

- She also said that's why they wanted to front-load the discovery, just in case the FTC went to federal court because MS/ABK have a termination date of July 18, 2023. "We are preparing for all options", said Wilkinson.

MS sounds quite confident:

- They are still expecting to close the deal in the original termination date
- They sound positive about the review process in Europe and UK
- If they get the go ahead from the CMA and EC, and the FTC doesn't settle, they'll go forward and close the deal in the US (expecting the FTC to go to court)

Very interesting! Now let's see what the CMA brings to the table this month.

Very interesting and confirms the idea that they will move forward without the FTC. Eagerly awaiting the CMAs report, this month will be wild.

cyrribrae · Jan 4, 2023

AImalexia said:
let's buy him a book about japanese merger law so he can be ready for the japanese pub acquisition

XD Oh no

ThatNerdGUI · Jan 4, 2023

AImalexia said:
let's buy him a book about japanese merger law so he can be ready for the japanese pub acquisition

Or he can go train with Sarah

LordRuyn · Jan 4, 2023

AImalexia said:
let's buy him a book about japanese merger law so he can be ready for the japanese pub acquisition

LOL, the point was to reward him not give him more work to do 😂

Tigerfish419 · Jan 4, 2023

dudu0609 said:
Fair enough.
However, I would rather to temper my expectations just in case to avoid big disappointment if the result is not what I want :)

Oh yeah I get that, I do think it'll happen and if not, I'm more annoyed that the poor staff will be stuck with status quo. Microsoft will find other ways to grow it's studios so that's not an issue, the staff at ABK though would probably still be stuck in the toxic workplace.

Disco Infernal · Jan 4, 2023

DukeBlueBall said:
Well. Well. Well.

Some said I was crazy when I suggested they'd do this. Who's crazy now? Still me, but I was at least right about this (potentially). MS isn't scared of the FTC.

Yerffej · Jan 4, 2023

DukeBlueBall said:
Well. Well. Well.

Indeed.

Iron Eddie · Jan 4, 2023

Idas said:
The report from MLex about the pre-hearing has a few interesting bits of info that are new:

- Beth Wilkinson told Chappell (the administrative judge) that if a resolution isn't reached with the FTC, the deal will go forward and close after a remedy is reached in all pending jurisdictions. But that the companies assume the FTC would go to federal court in that case.

Isn't this really the only way to force the FTC's hand?

Yoga Flame · Jan 4, 2023

It does sound positive from CMA doesn't it. I'm getting that impression with the info they've released in terms of public feedback and the 3rd party document that was in favour of the deal, they brought up compelling arguments without sounding aggressive. If it does pass CMA + EC I do like MS attitude towards FTC, that Khan misguided push doesn't matter; they'll close, then beat them in court. And unfortunately I do think this will be the end of Khan, it'll be a collosal mistake that spends much needed resources towards her personal agenda rather than fighting legitimate harm being done to industries.

Wereroku · Jan 4, 2023

Iron Eddie said:
Isn't this really the only way to force the FTC's hand?

Yes. The FTC has no reason to file an injunction at the moment because MS isn't close to closing the deal at the moment. However once approval is obtained in the other major areas they would just need to amend their agreement with Activision and then they could start closing. At that point the FTC would have to seek an injunction in court to force them to stop.

Idas · Jan 4, 2023

AImalexia said:
let's buy him a book about japanese merger law so he can be ready for the japanese pub acquisition

ThatNerdGUI said:
Or he can go train with Sarah

LordRuyn said:
LOL, the point was to reward him not give him more work to do 😂

Hahaha! I studied Japanese during a few years, but it's very rusty right now :p So, I would prefer the book in English xD

Trup1aya said:
Very interesting indeed. If MS and ABK get CMA and EC approval, and then amend then requirement for FTC approval, how long would the FTC have to file an injunction? And if they do file an injunction, how soon thereafter would the case go to court?

I should check the specific periods, but everything is way faster. The whole process (trial, post-trial briefing, argument, and release of opinion) is around 2-4 months, normally.

Iron Eddie said:
Isn't this really the only way to force the FTC's hand?

Not the only way but the main one (and the most logical one in that case).

Iron Eddie · Jan 4, 2023

Idas said:
Hahaha! I studied Japanese during a few years, but it's very rusty right now :p So, I would prefer the book in English xD

I should check the specific periods, but everything is way faster. The whole process (trial, post-trial briefing, argument, and release of opinion) is around 2-4 months, normally.

Not the only way but the main one (and the most logical one in that case).

Thank you again for all the updates.

DopeyFish · Jan 4, 2023

I am seeing in a couple places that MS has told the ALJ that if they get approvals in the remaining areas, they will close the transaction regardless of the FTC.

Not sure of the validity of these reports.

edit: oh shit i've been era -> internet -> era'ed

Psyrgery · Jan 4, 2023

Thanks for all your work Idas !

Basically, it's up to the CMA if the deal goes through or not, as the EC seemed more positive towards approving it if concessions were made.

I guess if both the CMA and EC approve the deal, then both New Zealand and China would also agree since they were expected to follow suit.

The FTC would not have many arguments to keep staggering the whole process

The Microsoft / Activision Blizzard acquisition |OT| Antitrust Simulator (completed; discussing post-merger issues)

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