If MS gets the Statement of Objections tomorrow, do you think we would get media reports already by the end of the day, particularly in the US? Or would it have to wait until Monday?
Also, should we expect the CMA's decision next Friday or later than that?
Yes, my guess is that by midday (in Europe) MS should already have the Statement of Objections (SO). Even if it comes later, still plenty of time to get reports by the end of the day, in Europe and the US.
I also think that it's quite likely that we'll have provisional findings (PF) from the CMA next week:
- It would fit the new administrative timetable (late January, 30-31, early February, 1-3).
- One of the reasons for the extension was to get more time to respond to what the parties could say to the PF and then write the final report. So, the sooner the PF are published, the better for the CMA.
- Both the SO and PF mean the formal opening of remedy talks. With the SO coming tomorrow, and if the CMA is willing to talk about remedies, it makes a lot of sense that the two big regulators in Europe for the case start remedy talks almost at the same time.
- If the CMA goes for a block, it would also make sense to publish the PF almost at the same time as the SO to avoid inconvenient scenarios where the EC and MS quickly agree on remedies that could solve anticompetitive concerns, but weeks later the CMA (under the same markets, facts and theories) goes on a totally different direction. If they are going to block it I think that it would be better to do it almost at the same time that the EC states their concerns.
My personal bet is that we'll have provisional findings on Tuesday 31st :p
