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DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,796
I hope the CMA sees through this BS like the EU has.

correcting that math mistake (5 year profit vs 1 year loss) and the switch rate (call of duty players relative to the larger user base) should completely resolve the SLC

the only reason there is an SLC is due to 2 math errors. It just doesn't even exist.
 
Oct 27, 2017
16,591
I agree with this. Most people aren't going to jump ecosystems for a game they could get on their current console without a ~£500 buy-in.
That's where the first party exclusives come into play, enough quality and people will consider it and next gen we start from 0 again. Ecosystems matter less when you can sun and play it all.

It's one of the reasons I jumped at a SeX last year, I'll still play majority of my stuff on PS this gen but no more loyalty for me. I'm more worried about money now, it's getting tougher.
 

Reckheim

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,379
So basically the CMA still are killing it come April it seems sans the total divestment of Activision? because that's how I read this
I don't want this deal to go through, but MS has really done a good job of poking holes in a lot of Sony's claims. I think by the time it comes down for CMA to make the decision they might realize that something can be done without divestment.

Hopefully I am wrong.
 

Stibbs

Member
Feb 8, 2023
3,120
The 518
I don't want this deal to go through, but MS has really done a good job of poking holes in a lot of Sony's claims. I think by the time it comes down for CMA to make the decision they might realize that something can be done without divestment.

Hopefully I am wrong.
CMA are hell or high water sticking to their guns it seems, so we can take that as we will
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,219
So basically the CMA still are killing it come April it seems sans the total divestment of Activision? because that's how I read this
No, the CMA left the door open to discuss behavioral remedies with MS and that's exactly what they're doing right now. It looks like MS were very successful negotiating with the EC to get them to change their stance, so it's a real possibility that they'll do the same with the CMA, especially considering how flimsy the CMA's arguments are.

CMA are hell or high water sticking to their guns it seems, so we can take that as we will
Where are you getting that from? There's no new info from the CMA in this new report.
 
Oct 27, 2017
16,591
Oh I know. Hopefully increased competition forces them there.

Sony saying they can't afford it is a load of hogwash. They make more profit from their 30% cut on third party sales than they make revenue from first party games. If anyone can make a day one MGS, it's platform holders who take a cut of everyone's sales.

Yeah, I agree that Sony would likely be able to withstand COD on Game Pass with little effect to their market dominance. Which is a shame.

I wish they would get Sifu or Kena on there. Not only do they prevent these games from getting Game Pass deals, they also don't sign them to deals. 😭
Is the last part official?
 

Squall93

Member
Oct 29, 2017
295
Paris
No, the CMA left the door open to discuss behavioral remedies with MS and that's exactly what they're doing right now. It looks like MS were very successful negotiating with the EC to get them to change their stance, so it's a real possibility that they'll do the same with the CMA, especially considering how flimsy the CMA's arguments are.
After all the EC has always been much more open to this kind of solution, therefore much easier to convince.
It's not at all the same thing with the CMA
 

DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,796
After all the EC has always been much more open to this kind of solution, therefore much easier to convince.
It's not at all the same thing with the CMA

CMA needs evidence in order to action, even if it has it's mind set on something and MS basically deleted their evidence in their filing. I really do not think they can use the console SLC anymore. And Microsoft's cloud remedies are far far stronger than the console remedies that they could provide because they are full access which negates any strength MS has in the area.

prohibition at this point or divestiture is not proportional to the evidence and this is quickly turning into one of the rare cases that the company could definitely win in court.
 

nrXic

Member
Jul 19, 2020
11
I can but I didn't feel like going through my reply tweets to find it 😂. To be more specific his reasoning was that he just didn't like big tech mergers in general but had no explanation as to why.

Edit: I found the thread but I'm kinda new and ignorant as to how to insert the photo from my iPad into this. Don't see an option to do it.

No worries and don't worry about it, you did answer my question. His inability to explain why he holds his beliefs tells me everything.

Throughout history we've seen plenty of bad mergers and it's not hard to come up with reasons to oppose them. In this case you're seeing every concern being addressed with concessions to the point where a guy who's generally against big tech mergers can't think of a good reason why it shouldn't happen.
 

Squall93

Member
Oct 29, 2017
295
Paris
And Microsoft's cloud remedies are far far stronger than the console remedies that they could provide because they are full access which negates any strength MS has in the area.
Except that the CMA made it clear that this SLC was not limited in time and therefore what happens after 10 years
Besides, we can clearly see that MS's argument at the CMA is not about the duration of the SLC but about the benefits for consumers.
 
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rscardinals

Member
Feb 17, 2023
386
Ah, I see. Yea, I figured I was missing the bit about how many PS players played COD. Is there a document that says that somewhere? Otherwise, rscardinals' napkin math seems about right. Though, MAUs are (perhaps) going to be a smaller subset than the number of players who play 10 hours or more COD in a year. Either way, we're not talking about a lot of people, yea.
As Sheepinator says there is no good documentation on it. Bing AI and my google gift were only able to find the numbers I used. I tried to include the source of the numbers

I'm not sure there's a useful known figure. I recall recently Sony tried claiming some massive % of their userbase had played COD in 2021 or something, which is irrelevant for switching estimates since it includes free games on PS+, free demo, etc. A more useful metric might % of users which played COD >10 hours or spent >$100 spent in a year, as the CMA survey used, but they failed to mention, or failed to track, that enormously important metric.
Agreed. I guess they just used Sony telemetry data. 40% feels very high, from my napkin math, SO that would just mean an even smaller % diversion rate. Which then just causes me to shake my head. Is the CMA intentionally making it look bad to try to 1) justify blocking it or 2) to strong arm and get stronger concessions.
 
Jul 10, 2020
3,598
Man everyday in this thread is a whiplash.

Earlier today I was feeling good, now with the latest MLEX update I still feel like it's dead by the CMA.

It just seems CMA is hellbent on stamping their feet, crossing their arms and going HMPH killing this thing through block or forced sale.
 

rscardinals

Member
Feb 17, 2023
386
Man everyday in this thread is a whiplash.

Earlier today I was feeling good, now with the latest MLEX update I still feel like it's dead by the CMA.

It just seems CMA is hellbent on stamping their feet, crossing their arms and going HMPH killing this thing through block or forced sale.
Microsoft definitely is laying the ground work for an irrantionality claim to the CAT. But lets hope it doesn't get to that! I just want this over!
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,557
Man everyday in this thread is a whiplash.

Earlier today I was feeling good, now with the latest MLEX update I still feel like it's dead by the CMA.

It just seems CMA is hellbent on stamping their feet, crossing their arms and going HMPH killing this thing through block or forced sale.
The report doesn't say anything new about the CMA. Feels like half the whiplash is from conjecture a lot of the time.
 
Jul 10, 2020
3,598
Microsoft definitely is laying the ground work for an irrantionality claim to the CAT. But lets hope it doesn't get to that! I just want this over!

But even that seems like it's a waste.

It seems like the CMA for whatever reason is hellbent on saying "Sell or GTFO" despite what numerous other regulators have found elsewhere in the world.
The report doesn't say anything new about the CMA. Feels like half the whiplash is from conjecture a lot of the time.

Conjecture? I don't think so. It's been clear that the CMA has it out for this deal for whatever reason despite every other regulator with sense going "Look, we can regulate the shit out of this" and CMA just keeps going "Sell CoD or fuck off".
 

Lowrys

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,399
London
Except that the CMA made it clear that this SLC was not limited in time and therefore what happens after 10 years
Not sure CMA is allowed to speculate into the distant future like that. We're taking about a popular videogame that will not be popular or even made for eternity. I find it baffling that the CMA is apparently treating CoD like an essential asset.

If this merger were somehow to deprive Sony of the ability to use the Web or literally make its consoles, that would be one thing. This is just one game and one game, however popular, cannot foreclose Sony.
 

Mmmmmkay

Member
Jan 28, 2023
487
So basically the CMA still are killing it come April it seems sans the total divestment of Activision? because that's how I read this
That quote was from the provisional findings. A lot has transpired since then so we really don't know where the CMA is at this point and how Microsoft's response has influenced their stance given all of the inaccuracies in their methodology and conflicting statements they brought up. Those undoubtedly vastly weakened the CMA's case for divesture and prohibition. The other thing that the CMA has to be considering is if the deal is cleared in all other markets, they would be ripe for an irrationality appeal in CAT.
 

pswii60

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,673
The Milky Way
This isn't anything new by the CMA, they are simply quoting the document we were discussing a couple of weeks ago, which was the last time CMA published feedback.
 

DopeyFish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,796
Except that the CMA made it clear that this SLC was not limited in time and therefore what happens after 10 years

the SLC that has flawed math holding it up will not apply once it goes through CAT/court even if they tried to hammer it through... so because the basis is wrong, the time that it applies is also wrong because it is relying on an incorrect foundation. those numbers being wrong means the SLC can't exist. So if it's sent back, CMA won't be able to use it because they'd have to make another conclusion without that evidence and the entire SLC relies on those incorrect numbers.

like if the numbers made sense, then CMA would still be justified, but they don't. CMA doesn't need a lot but it needs *something*.

CMA really screwed up.

In my eyes this is over. whether it being in april or a later date after appeals / court, it's still over.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
28,018
Agreed. I guess they just used Sony telemetry data. 40% feels very high, from my napkin math, SO that would just mean an even smaller % diversion rate. Which then just causes me to shake my head. Is the CMA intentionally making it look bad to try to 1) justify blocking it or 2) to strong arm and get stronger concessions.
Without that metric, you can make anything seem like an essential input.

"Our survey says 50% of [Game X] players might switch." OK, if the players represent 50% of the userbase, that's a SLC, but if they represent 1%, it's irrelevant.
 

Mmmmmkay

Member
Jan 28, 2023
487
No worries and don't worry about it, you did answer my question. His inability to explain why he holds his beliefs tells me everything.

Throughout history we've seen plenty of bad mergers and it's not hard to come up with reasons to oppose them. In this case you're seeing every concern being addressed with concessions to the point where a guy who's generally against big tech mergers can't think of a good reason why it shouldn't happen.
👍
 

Yerffej

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,557
But even that seems like it's a waste.

It seems like the CMA for whatever reason is hellbent on saying "Sell or GTFO" despite what numerous other regulators have found elsewhere in the world.


Conjecture? I don't think so. It's been clear that the CMA has it out for this deal for whatever reason despite every other regulator with sense going "Look, we can regulate the shit out of this" and CMA just keeps going "Sell CoD or fuck off".
Conjecture by some in here over the same reporting. Nothing has moved one way or another with the CMA. Who knows where they are at with everything that has transpired over the last couple weeks.

If a report comes out with a line like "the CMA however..." That's all it takes for some to just go IT'S OVER ALL IS LOST!
 

leburn98

Member
Nov 1, 2017
1,637
So basically the CMA still are killing it come April it seems sans the total divestment of Activision? because that's how I read this
Actually this is old news and is based on the CMA's PF which is based entirely on everything submitted prior to Microsoft's 10-year contracts with Nintendo, Nvidia, Boosteroid, etc. At the time of the CMA's PF, Microsoft had only committed to having Call of Duty on Nintendo, PlayStation and Steam, without any formal contract signed. Roughly two weeks after the CMA's PF, Microsoft signed deals with Nintendo and Nvidia, following that up with recent deals with Boosteroid and Ubitus.

The actual quote from the PF is:
Microsoft has, however, informed us of existing and potential contractual arrangements with third-party platforms relating to access to Call of Duty. Accordingly, while none of the circumstances in which the CMA would select a behavioural remedy as the primary source of remedial action in a merger investigation (as summarised in paragraph 15 above) appear to be present, the CMA will also consider a behavioural access remedy as a possible remedy.
For some reason MLex cut off the bolded bit.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
54,527
Its POSSIBLE that SLCs get dropped after the Provisional Findings at the CMA? Similar to the EC seemingly dropping consoles as a SLC?

Though as noted the UK is more competitive in that market than the EU so it seems unlikely.

It would be quite curious if, because now there are signed deals with Nintendo and Nvidia, etc, showing Microsoft has basically committed to behavioral remedies… that the CMA similar to the EC doesn't formalize behavioral remedies to not set some precedent of passing Phase 2 with behavioral remedies. Idk. Its been mentioned by Idas before, before Phase 2 was posted I think.

Like Microsoft is highly unlikely to not port to PS if they have to go through the effort of making a Nintendo port too, and will want to look good for future regulation deals. So the "risk" to the CMA to pass with behavioral remedies is lessened as they could just pass without conditions (like many other vertical mergers in Phase 2).

Seems like a longshot but not impossible given the ECs recent behavior. Sucks we still have a month to go lol
 

Deleted member 93062

Account closed at user request
Banned
Mar 4, 2021
24,767
Actually this old news and is based on the CMA's PF which is based entirely on everything submitted prior to Microsoft's 10-year contracts with Nintendo, Nvidia, Boosteroid, etc. At the time of the CMA's PF, Microsoft had only committed to having Call of Duty on Nintendo, PlayStation and Steam, without any formal contract signed. Roughly two weeks after the CMA's PF, Microsoft signed deals with Nintendo and Nvidia, following that up with recent deals with Boosteroid and Ubitus.

The actual quote from the PF is:

For some reason MLex cut off the bolded bit.
Is there a difference between behavioral remedy and a behavioral access remedy? If so, I wonder how many mergers in the past that the CMA "blocked" were more related towards behavioral remedy instead of an access remedy. The way they're separated in that quote makes me feel like the CMA views them as different things.
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,219
I have to say it's pretty funny reading other forums that think Idas is the one writing and making up these reports lol. And I recently saw somone call Mlex a Microsoft propaganda mouthpiece. This acquistion never fails to deliver entertainment lol.
 
Jul 10, 2020
3,598
It's crazy to me that peopel keep spouting the line that "the competition in the UK is close" when we know that PS5 has a 25%+ lead on Series consoles and Sony themselves admitted that PS5 is taking AWAY Market Share from Xbox in regions used to be considered "competitive"

How is a 25%+ lead "competitive"?
 

Chaos Legion

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,922
the SLC that has flawed math holding it up will not apply once it goes through CAT/court even if they tried to hammer it through... so because the basis is wrong, the time that it applies is also wrong because it is relying on an incorrect foundation. those numbers being wrong means the SLC can't exist. So if it's sent back, CMA won't be able to use it because they'd have to make another conclusion without that evidence and the entire SLC relies on those incorrect numbers.

like if the numbers made sense, then CMA would still be justified, but they don't. CMA doesn't need a lot but it needs *something*.

CMA really screwed up.

In my eyes this is over. whether it being in april or a later date after appeals / court, it's still over.
Eh. Given paragraph 7.339 of the CMA's response, even if Microsoft is correct and the CMA's analysis is incorrect (not to mention, that's only 2 of the analyses that they examined, I would bet Sony's financial modeling does not agree with Microsoft's), they can still assess the incentive to foreclose to exist.
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,219
Man everyday in this thread is a whiplash.

Earlier today I was feeling good, now with the latest MLEX update I still feel like it's dead by the CMA.

It just seems CMA is hellbent on stamping their feet, crossing their arms and going HMPH killing this thing through block or forced sale.
There isn't anything new from the CMA other than MS being encouraged by how their talks are going. So no reason for whiplash lol.
 

Ratuso

Member
Nov 27, 2021
1,195
MLex reports if true are very good news for MS ar the EC, although we kinda expected them to approve It.

However, the EC's decision not coming before the CMA one - almost one month later in fact - is definitely not good, it would have been a huge boast for MS's case against the CMA.

Therefore, I still believe that it'll be blocked by the CMA.
 

vixolus

Prophet of Truth
Member
Sep 22, 2020
54,527
MLex reports if true are very good news for MS ar the EC, although we kinda expected them to approve It.

However, the EC's decision not coming before the CMA one - almost one month later in fact - is definitely not good, it would have been a huge boast for MS's case against the CMA.

Therefore, I still believe that it'll be blocked by the CMA.
Well previously the EC report would come the day before the CMAs so I doubt it wouldve helped
 

Ratuso

Member
Nov 27, 2021
1,195
Well previously the EC report would come the day before the CMAs so I doubt it wouldve helped
Yeah I don't think It would have really helped either, maybe with CAT if they wanted to file an appeal as quick as possible.

Microsoft has a timing issue imo
The report also says that the EC needs to have a draft decision ready soon, so I'm sure the CMA will see that too.

As far as I know , that draft won't be sent to the CMA.
 
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KnowinStuff

Member
Feb 6, 2023
206
The problem is that we know what the CMA said in the PF, and everyone has their personal view of the developments since the PF, but we can only speculate as to the CMA's view of the developments since the PF, and that is the view that matters most. The CMA runs a pretty tight ship but I'd love a couple credible leaks about now.
 

T0kenAussie

Member
Jan 15, 2020
5,101
Why would CMA care about any of this?
If the games industry leaves the UK and moves to the EU because the business community is more friendly there it would be a huge black eye politically

And I know everyone says the CMA shouldn't or wouldn't care about the politics of the deals but there is a competition now between the UK and EU for industry investment

Given the government is signalling they are heavily invested in the industry staying with those new tax breaks I would say a regulatory body going out of its way to depress business confidence would be bad for these aims
 
OP
OP
Idas

Idas

Antitrusting By Keyboard
Member
Mar 20, 2022
2,025
So basically the CMA still are killing it come April it seems sans the total divestment of Activision? because that's how I read this

The report is just quoting the remedies notice from the CMA (February 8th). So, nothing new.

But it's relevant because it's the most recent public statement from the CMA about behavioural remedies in this case.

What are they thinking about this right now? No one really knows 🤷🏻‍♀️

The summary of day (and both reports) would be:

- MS has officially offered remedies to the EC.

- The remedies only address cloud gaming concerns because it looks like the EC has dropped the concerns about the console and PC OS markets.

- Those remedies will be subject to a market test now.

- MS expects to use those remedies to put pressure on the CMA.

- The EC has delayed the provisional deadline for a decision to May 22nd, although it will soon need to circulate a draft decision internally and to national authorities.

All in all, I think that it was a pretty good day for MS.

We'll see what happens during the rest of March.

I have to say it's pretty funny reading other forums that think Idas is the one writing and making up these reports lol. And I recently saw somone call Mlex a Microsoft propaganda mouthpiece. This acquistion never fails to deliver entertainment lol.

Oh, boy! 😬 xD
 

Lorul2

Member
Jan 4, 2018
770
The report is just quoting the remedies notice from the CMA (February 8th). So, nothing new.

But it's relevant because it's the most recent public statement from the CMA about behavioural remedies in this case.

What are they thinking about this right now? No one really knows 🤷🏻‍♀️

The summary of day (and both reports) would be:

- MS has officially offered remedies to the EC.

- The remedies only address cloud gaming concerns because it looks like the EC has dropped the concerns about the console and PC OS markets.

- Those remedies will be subject to a market test now.

- MS expects to use those remedies to put pressure on the CMA.

- The EC has delayed the provisional deadline for a decision to May 22nd, although it will soon need to circulate a draft decision internally and to national authorities.

All in all, I think that it was a pretty good day for MS.

We'll see what happens during the rest of March.



Oh, boy! 😬 xD

Why did they move the date up just to move the date back? Thanks for your reply.
 

Yoga Flame

Alt-Account
Banned
Sep 8, 2022
1,674
- The extent to which Sony would benefit from the remedy on cloud gaming is unclear. Sony's primary complaint has been that Microsoft would remove Activision Blizzard's games from its PlayStation, or at the very least degrade their performance on the Sony console to drive its users to the Microsoft Xbox. "That appears to have fallen on deaf ears at the EU competition enforcer."

This is the most encouraging part. Sony nonsensical and sensationalist arguments worked against them.

MS response to CMA PF was strong and exposed a number of flaws in how they calculated their data, crucially rather than scold them MS used existing formula with the corrected parameters which contradicted CMA number which they used to infer SLC.

CMA are being cautious but are having a hard time proving SLC at least in terms of impact to UK market.
 
OP
OP
Idas

Idas

Antitrusting By Keyboard
Member
Mar 20, 2022
2,025
Why did they move the date up just to move the date back? Thanks for your reply.

I think that the first delay (in November 2022) was because MS wanted to offer remedies as soon as possible to the EC to avoid a Statement of Objections, force the hand of the FTC (that was already thinking about an administrative complaint) and influence the CMA while Phase 2 was progressing. But the FTC rushed its decision in early December and the strategy failed.

The second delay (March 1st 2023) was because MS needed more time to offer the remedies package regarding cloud gaming (for example, closing all those agreements with the cloud gaming providers).

I think that this third delay happens because the market test is going to take 1-2 weeks, the assessment of all the info by the EC will need 1-2 extra weeks and without the extra month there was no way to publish a decision by April 25th.