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Let's be honest, what are the odds for the acquisition to be approved by the EC AND CMA ?
30% ? 40% ? I want the deal to go through but i think we shouldn't have any expectations.
30% ? 40% ? I want the deal to go through but i think we shouldn't have any expectations.
Hey guys! What are we going to do if it goes through? Do we celebrate? What if it doesn't? We need plans.
Idas was thinking that the CMA doesn't like behavioral remedies, but behavioral remedies make the most sense, so the CMA might approve without remedies and ride on the back of whatever remedies the EC comes to.
The EC is likely to pass this with behavioral remedies. The CMA has largely been positive since entering phase 2, publishing an extremely positive market participant letter and the findings of their public emails, which were 3/4ths in favour of the deal. So it's very possible they pass it.
It's not a foregone conclusion though. Anything could happen. They could require a structural remedy which could be a deal killer, and since you appeal the CMA's decision to the CMA, it's highly likely that their decision if negative, won't be changed (ergo the deal will die).
Microsoft is likely to take whatever remedies the EC may want and apply them to the US and UK anyway. According to the FTC, there haven't been any "substantive" talks with Microsoft about remedies and that's likely because Microsoft hasn't finalized anything with the EC yet. Plus, the FTC got their nose busted yesterday and having Microsoft concede to some pretty decent remedies with the EC could still be taken as a win if they wanted it to.
And while it's true the CMA doesn't really do behavioral remedies, they may be appropriate given the industry and circumstances of this particular acquisition. It's the first of its kind at this scale for the industry and a far cry from other mergers that may be more disruptive such as the tech (i.e. not video games), telecom, oil, chip, etc. industries. Those are definitely more deserving of an increased focus with potential structural remedies.
View: https://twitter.com/thurrott/status/1621136836604358656?s=46&t=I2Va24XATkFI6ZAY1SBC5A
Wut
Edit: apparently this is a joke. I get it now.
I think it should go through but with activism being displayed who knows? I've used Idas and Hoeg as my barometer but it's gone haywire so I have no clue if it goes but always maintained some skepticism.
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Sony gets two extra days, until February 3rd, to respond to the subpoena from MS.
One more week! Nice. I know what I'll be reading that weekend :p xD
One more week! Nice. I know what I'll be reading that weekend :p xD
Even if they had responded to the subpoena, I can't imagine Sony would have finished compiling and sharing all the discovery documents before CMA publishes. I don't think much changes actually, either way.
What is the significance of MS and FTC subpoenaing Sony separately? Is this just standard practice or is this necessary so they can ask for different documents? Or did I just misunderstand something major lol
They would probably be asking for different info. Part of what MS is requesting from Sony is probably the info they provided to the FTC already.
Yea, true. That makes sense. Makes me wonder what Sony is trying to limit discovery on (or conversely what MS thinks it can get Sony to reveal). I can't imagine things like the FTC communications would be irrelevant, but maybe Sony are trying to make that case. But I guess they're close to agreeing on something, if the deadline was only extended to tomorrow? I don't know haha
Just wait 7-8 more days and we will know if the deal is cooked or not, we have gotten this far. Look for early reports next week via twitter. We will see how executives at MS sound.
Disappointing.
2/3 of the CMA panel is leaning backward.
I hope "That Way" can push this past the finish line.
Worth noting that you can tell how much sway "That Way" carries in the matter because it literally over-shadows "Another Way" and doesn't mind cutting off "This Way." So all hope is not lost...
For the people who like reading the tea leaves, what do you make of this:
View: https://twitter.com/fxshaw/status/1621265273222496256
View: https://twitter.com/fxshaw/status/1621265273222496256
If anything, I am glad that the time taken is indicative of the seriousness regulators are taking this case.
I very much believe that regulators doing their due diligence to make sure the pool of 3rd developers and publishers are stable and healthy is protecting competition.
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It very much illustrates that the regulators' concerns have nothing to do with protecting competition, but I don't think that will stop them from blocking the deal.
Yea, I have no problem with regulators taking their time to do their research and to present their case as well as possible. No matter what, some of us won't agree with their decision and will likely complain haha. But if it's undertaken in good faith and good law, it is what it is.
Iono if Shaw's tweet means much except that Sony is doing really, really well and that gap is only increasing. Some familiar posters have held up Microsoft selling a few extra consoles over a few months at various points in the last couple years as proof that Microsoft is clearly in the mix. Which is a reasonable argument that I think is entirely dismantled by the overwhelming body of evidence that suggests that not only is Xbox far behind in many of the relevant metrics but that there's really very little chance of them even catching up purely on their own power without making some drastic changes AND only with a healthy dose of Sony falling flat on their face for a few freaking years. COD isn't tipping the balance, especially when Sony is experiencing essentially no downside to COD. MS will be paying money to give Sony a better version for at least 2 years and then at least substantially equivalent for another 8+.
But I don't think regulators are adjusting their entire models because of this latest report haha. It was already painfully obvious long before now.
Iono if Shaw's tweet means much except that Sony is doing really, really well and that gap is only increasing. Some familiar posters have held up Microsoft selling a few extra consoles over a few months at various points in the last couple years as proof that Microsoft is clearly in the mix. Which is a reasonable argument that I think is entirely dismantled by the overwhelming body of evidence that suggests that not only is Xbox far behind in many of the relevant metrics but that there's really very little chance of them even catching up purely on their own power without making some drastic changes AND only with a healthy dose of Sony falling flat on their face for a few freaking years. COD isn't tipping the balance, especially when Sony is experiencing essentially no downside to COD. MS will be paying money to give Sony a better version for at least 2 years and then at least substantially equivalent for another 8+.
But I don't think regulators are adjusting their entire models because of this latest report haha. It was already painfully obvious long before now.
😆
This is good for MS ...right? we should probably have all the decisions from EC and CMA by then.
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It tells me that Frank has finally conceded that Nintendo is a separate market.
Perhaps because Sony does not "mainly control" the console market (and certainly not the wider gaming market), unless that console market excludes Nintendo!
And I was being facetious.
Florian Muller at Fosspatents is particularly savage this week about Sony's discovery strategy.
www.fosspatents.com
Thankless Sony is unwilling to comply with Federal Trade Commission's subpoena over Microsoft-ActivisionBlizzard merger, at least in its original form
This is counterintuitive. One would think that Sony's PlayStation chief Jim Ryan has a Lina Khan poster above his bed because the Federal Tr...
This is pretty funny, but why is this person seemingly upset? What's their involvement?Florian Muller at Fosspatents is particularly savage this week about Sony's discovery strategy.
Thankless Sony is unwilling to comply with Federal Trade Commission's subpoena over Microsoft-ActivisionBlizzard merger, at least in its original form
This is counterintuitive. One would think that Sony's PlayStation chief Jim Ryan has a Lina Khan poster above his bed because the Federal Tr...
That's their normal tone about any company or a regulatory body when he's perceiving them to be making shoddy or self-serving arguments. Especially when it starts to bite them back in any shape.
In this case, he predicted Sony would find itself in an uncomfortable spot if it became the target of discovery, so part of it is just being pleased he's right (which we all do when we're right).
Silly Sony lol.Florian Muller at Fosspatents is particularly savage this week about Sony's discovery strategy.
Thankless Sony is unwilling to comply with Federal Trade Commission's subpoena over Microsoft-ActivisionBlizzard merger, at least in its original form
This is counterintuitive. One would think that Sony's PlayStation chief Jim Ryan has a Lina Khan poster above his bed because the Federal Tr...
He's a paid consultant for hire, historically for Microsoft and Oracle.
Clearly he doesn't suffer fools. Lol It looks like Sony is posturing at this point. I really do think that they pushed the date back to 2/15 because by then we'll know what the EC and CMA have decided. If it's positive for Microsoft, then Sony is going to move to squash the subpeona because they know the FTC won't stand a chance. There would be no reason to air their dirty laundry in a losing endeavor.
I really can't wait to see how this ends. I personally do not see the FTC or EC blocking it though.Florian Muller at Fosspatents is particularly savage this week about Sony's discovery strategy.
Thankless Sony is unwilling to comply with Federal Trade Commission's subpoena over Microsoft-ActivisionBlizzard merger, at least in its original form
This is counterintuitive. One would think that Sony's PlayStation chief Jim Ryan has a Lina Khan poster above his bed because the Federal Tr...
Yeah, he has done consultancy work for MS and Oracle but he is also very distrustful of the duopoly scenario that we have in mobile so he believes that a competitive MS mobile store would be a net good.
It's still a good source for documents even if you want to ignore the opinion.
"Do you need this" is absolutely not a deciding factor of a purchase. They need reasons to block, not to approve.
Do not underestimate the capacity of the UK government to take steps that unequivocally harm its citizens for stupid reasons, particularly if it is to prove a point of differentiation from the EU.
It's not the regulators job to determine what MS "needs". Only whether or not the acquisition would threaten to kill MS' competition.
Also, they shouldn't be partial to a situation where xbox is a non-viable business as that would lessen competition and make it even tougher for new entrants to emerge.
Sure, if you look at Sony's platform revenue as a "market", CODs share is comparable to that of a 1st party exclusive.
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I got a subscription to Equity Report :p
They have 4 reports about the case in the last two months with interesting new info. I share now a summary of the most recent one and later in the day the other three.
- Provisional findings (PF) from he CMA coming next week.
- The sources (two lawyers linked to the parties or third parties) say that MS is waiting the PF before offering remedies.
- The CMA is very hard to read at the moment and MS will probably learn about what's happening at the same time as everybody else.
- The outcome of the PF could depend on wether they include the ecosystem theory of harm or not.
- If the CMA blocks the deal, they'll need to back up its claims with substantive evidence from third parties to defend its position in a possible appeal.
- A third source, another lawyer linked to the case, believes that the deal shouldn't be opposed but that aligning remedies between the CMA and the EC will be a challenge because the CMA has a more formal approach and the EU process is more interactive.
- The same lawyer believes that the regulators' position about the case is a combination of the vocal opposition from a competitor (Sony) and some overreaction over the last ten years where vertical mergers have been constantly approved. "It's odd that it even got this far", he/she says.
- Sony may have been rejecting the offers from MS hoping to secure better licensing terms through a formal remedy agreement.
They have 4 reports about the case in the last two months with interesting new info. I share now a summary of the most recent one and later in the day the other three.
CMA likely to publish provisional findings on Microsoft/Activision Blizzard merger by next week
The CMA is expected to publish its provisional findings on the ongoing review of the Microsoft/Activision Blizzard merger in a week’s time.www.equityreport.co.uk
- Provisional findings (PF) from he CMA coming next week.
- The sources (two lawyers linked to the parties or third parties) say that MS is waiting the PF before offering remedies.
- The CMA is very hard to read at the moment and MS will probably learn about what's happening at the same time as everybody else.
- The outcome of the PF could depend on wether they include the ecosystem theory of harm or not.
- If the CMA blocks the deal, they'll need to back up its claims with substantive evidence from third parties to defend its position in a possible appeal.
- A third source, another lawyer linked to the case, believes that the deal shouldn't be opposed but that aligning remedies between the CMA and the EC will be a challenge because the CMA has a more formal approach and the EU process is more interactive.
- The same lawyer believes that the regulators' position about the case is a combination of the vocal opposition from a competitor (Sony) and some overreaction over the last ten years where vertical mergers have been constantly approved. "It's odd that it even got this far", he/she says.
- Sony may have been rejecting the offers from MS hoping to secure better licensing terms through a formal remedy agreement.
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It feels quite nice that the CMA are subject to transparency laws like FOI so citizens (not sure if it is just UK citizen) can request information from them and other governmental bodies in the UK.