Theresa May: “If this deal is not passed then Brexit could be lost"

Koo · Mar 14, 2019

Hasney said:
Well, looks like they're already planning what happens if the third vote on the deal fails

THAT'S RIGHT FOLKS, A FOURTH VOTE. ON THE SAME DEAL.

Just keep voting; just keep voting; just keep voting....

Eventually the plan will just morph into daily (hourly?) votes to wear out the parliamentary or confuse everyone till somehow May's Deal squeaks through or the whole lot goes over the cliff with no-deal on the deadline. Keep voting till you get it right and/or everyone gets shot.

Funky Papa · Mar 14, 2019

Doctor_Thomas said:
Poland, Hungary and Italy probably won't due to their governments and courting by powers here.

They seem to agree to an extension.

Keep in mind that internal politics and EU politics don't always go in the same direction. There's no better example than Salvini, being the EU's official cheerleader for Vladimir Putin yet bending to sanctions when push comes to shove.

Principate · Mar 14, 2019

Doctor_Thomas said:
Poland, Hungary and Italy probably won't due to their governments and courting by powers here.

Why would Poland and hungry not agree? Poland specifically was asking for UK citizens to vote remain. They have a sizeable amount of citizens in the UK.

Kanhir · Mar 14, 2019

Koo said:
Eventually the plan will just morph into daily (hourly?) votes to wear out the parliamentary or confuse everyone till somehow May's Deal squeaks through or the whole lot goes over the cliff with no-deal on the deadline. Keep voting till you get it right and/or everyone gets shot.

I expect if it gets beyond MV3, Bercow will start refusing to accept new MVs in the interest of sanity.

ac0083 · Mar 14, 2019

So if Parliment rejected a non deal Brexit, and there is a chance that the EU won't accept an extension, then I guess the only other solution is just revoking Article 50 all together?

Doctor_Thomas · Mar 14, 2019

Principate said:
Why would Poland and hungry not agree? Poland specifically was asking for UK citizens to vote remain. They have a sizeable amount of citizens in the UK.

Anti-EU sentiment in the government. Pushing very right wing and being courted by the same minds behind Brexit.

Napoleonthechimp · Mar 14, 2019

gspec said:
As a american watching this. I don't like Theresa May but I think she is the scape goat for this mess. This has been hung around her neck to take the blame and the fact that she is a woman makes this even more cruel. Do people in Britain actually think Theresa May can pull a rabbit out of her ass to fix this mess and somehow force the EU to give in to Britain demands with zero leverage?

Nothing has been forced on her. She chose this.

Principate · Mar 14, 2019

Doctor_Thomas said:
Anti-EU sentiment in the government. Pushing very right wing and being courted by the same minds behind Brexit.

Theu're still both countries with a large proportion of nationals in the UK and have benefitted from the UK being in the EU. Why do you think the polish government asked for the UK to vote remain in the first place.

kradical · Mar 14, 2019

gspec said:
and the fact that she is a woman makes this even more cruel.

What does this mean?

Koo · Mar 14, 2019

Kanhir said:
I expect if it gets beyond MV3, Bercow will start refusing to accept new MVs in the interest of sanity.

Everyone sitting around twiddling their thumbs unable to vote for anything; or constant nonsensical voting till a choice is made would both be hilarious prospects if the outcome wasn't so grim.

kradical said:
What does this mean?

Everyone is piling on that bit, but I interpreted it to mean that people will unfortunately point to May as a reason to back up their misogynistic views on why women shouldn't be leaders. Although maybe my reading of that is wrong and giving too much benefit of the doubt to what the poster meant.

Deleted member 10551 · Mar 14, 2019

ac0083 said:
So if Parliment rejected a non deal Brexit, and there is a chance that the EU won't accept an extension, then I guess the only other solution is just revoking Article 50 all together?

One possibility

The UK says this means they cannot invoke article 50 finality without a deal, but article 50 is still in effect, this makes negotiations indefinite, and the UK stays in under the current terms fully until there is a deal, we will continue to negotiate

The EU says that isn't the case, but doesn't pull the trigger on no deal- either because someone vetoes doing that, or because they don't want the economic harm Brexit will cause (it will hurt the EU some, just because it hurts the UK more doesn't mean they'll want to hurt themselves just to hurt the UK, the EU isn't dumb)

You'll get a situation where Brexit will have happened but everyone pretends it didn't and things go on in a farce, until eventually a pro-EU faction wins in the UK and they revoke article 50. UK politics realignment will be very messy, so this will take a while.

Brexit negotiator would become a ceremonial post if this continues long enough.

This sounds incredibly stupid and it is, but given the lack of will in the UK, a good chance Ireland will veto a forced Brexit (it's a mess for them), and the EU not wanting to harm France and Belgium, I think this is the most likely outcome right now. The UK will still lose businesses , but it won't be a humanitarian disaster.

kradical · Mar 14, 2019

Koo said:
Everyone is piling on that bit, but I interpreted it to mean that people will unfortunately point to May as a reason to back up their misogynistic views on why women shouldn't be leaders

I haven't seen this happening anywhere, have you?

Zarathustra · Mar 14, 2019

Like other posters here, I have to point out that if history ever contains a semblance of justice when it is written, David Cameron should be pointed out as the first and ultimate person to blame for all this.

Zvonimir Boban · Mar 14, 2019

gspec said:
As a american watching this. I don't like Theresa May but I think she is the scape goat for this mess. This has been hung around her neck to take the blame and the fact that she is a woman makes this even more crue

Never let yourself feel any sympathy for May. She is an unabashed racist and a xenophobe and I regret that the media and public haven't been even more harsh on her.

Wackamole · Mar 14, 2019

This whole idea will be cancelled, won't it? I mean, there is nothing really left (aside an even dumber no deal brexit).
Sometimes you have to admit it was a dumb idea.

Interested Observer · Mar 14, 2019

Koo said:
Everyone is piling on that bit, but I interpreted it to mean that people will unfortunately point to May as a reason to back up their misogynistic views on why women shouldn't be leaders. Although maybe my reading of that is wrong and giving too much benefit of the doubt to what the poster meant.

I live in Ireland so we're exposed to all things UK all the time and I haven't seen any examples of this really. Nobody cares that she's a woman.

Shroki · Mar 14, 2019

kradical said:
I haven't seen this happening anywhere, have you?

And, I mean, it's the UK.

Margaret Thatcher gave everyone lifetimes worth of excuses to be shitty about female leadership and it didn't happen on a meaningful level then either.

Psychotext · Mar 14, 2019

Yeah, I've seen very little to do with gender. We just see / judge ineptitude.

Frozenprince · Mar 14, 2019

So she doesn't care at all that this will kick off bombings in Ireland again if it happens yeah?

.exe · Mar 14, 2019

Frozenprince said:
So she doesn't care at all that this will kick off bombings in Ireland again if it happens yeah?

Is that truly a realistic outcome? (I don't know much about Northern Irish history)

DeltaRed · Mar 14, 2019

gspec said:
As a american watching this. I don't like Theresa May but I think she is the scape goat for this mess. This has been hung around her neck to take the blame and the fact that she is a woman makes this even more cruel. Do people in Britain actually think Theresa May can pull a rabbit out of her ass to fix this mess and somehow force the EU to give in to Britain demands with zero leverage?

Don't feel sorry for her, she's a massive racist and was awful to people during her time as Home Security. This is also a massive mess of her own making, she has made so many bad decisions that have led to the current situation. Pandering to a minority of hard Brexiteers every step of the way despite the referendum result being very close and the house of commons being split on everything, she hasn't looked for compromise or for the majority of people at any point. She has been driven by the right-wingers in her party.

JonnyDBrit · Mar 14, 2019

daxy said:
Is that truly a realistic outcome? (I don't know much about Northern Irish history)

So Northern Ireland - and by extension the British Isles - experienced a period of 'low' intensity guerrilla warfare called 'The Troubles' over the latter half of the 20th century. Almost 2000 civilians died, tens of thousands were wounded. That largely came to an end thanks to the Good Friday Agreement, and the practical reality that as members of the EU, there was no effective border within Ireland. Reintroducing that border is risking reigniting that conflict - it is just barely over 20 years out from it, and there are still factions eager to lap up recruits. Ideally, people have seen peace long enough that they'd be personally wary of setting it off again, but ideally we wouldn't be risking this anyway.

travisbickle · Mar 14, 2019

I don't understand how there won't be a no-deal after that vote? If the uk can't get a deal by the date of A50 and the eu won't extend isn't it a no-deal by default?

Zellia · Mar 14, 2019

travisbickle said:
I don't understand how there won't be a no-deal after that vote? If the uk can't get a deal by the date of A50 and the eu won't extend isn't it a no-deal by default?

Yep. The vote was more about Parliament sending a message to the Government that No Deal is unacceptable, but in practice if nothing else is in place No Deal remains the default.

Yesterday was basically a couple more bloody noses for the weakest, most inept UK government in living memory.

cupcakeunicorn · Mar 14, 2019

daxy said:
Is that truly a realistic outcome? (I don't know much about Northern Irish history)

JonnyDBrit said:
So Northern Ireland - and by extension the British Isles - experienced a period of 'low' intensity guerrilla warfare called 'The Troubles' over the latter half of the 20th century. Almost 2000 civilians died, tens of thousands were wounded. That largely came to an end thanks to the Good Friday Agreement, and the practical reality that as members of the EU, there was no effective border within Ireland. Reintroducing that border is risking reigniting that conflict - it is just barely over 20 years out from it, and there are still factions eager to lap up recruits. Ideally, people have seen peace long enough that they'd be personally wary of setting it off again, but ideally we wouldn't be risking this anyway.

Far too few people know much of anything about the Troubles, and it's an absolute shame.

It's also worth emphasising that the last major bombing, Omagh, was only ~20 years ago. 29 dead and 200+ injured. Three of the four most expensive terrorist attacks in history, anywhere in the world, were carried out by the provisional IRA in the 1990s. This is very recent history.

.exe · Mar 14, 2019

JonnyDBrit said:
So Northern Ireland - and by extension the British Isles - experienced a period of 'low' intensity guerrilla warfare called 'The Troubles' over the latter half of the 20th century. Almost 2000 civilians died, tens of thousands were wounded. That largely came to an end thanks to the Good Friday Agreement, and the practical reality that as members of the EU, there was no effective border within Ireland. Reintroducing that border is risking reigniting that conflict - it is just barely over 20 years out from it, and there are still factions eager to lap up recruits. Ideally, people have seen peace long enough that they'd be personally wary of setting it off again, but ideally we wouldn't be risking this anyway.

Thanks. I would hope that time and perspective has minimized the risk of this, but opening an old wound like that is indeed not a great call. Who are these factions and what do they even stand to gain from conflict? Seems like something nobody would benefit from.

Now that I think about it, it's really odd that we weren't taught about this in history class in the Netherlands but did focus on faraway conflicts.

The Hobo · Mar 14, 2019

cupcakeunicorn said:
Far too few people know much of anything about the Troubles, and it's an absolute shame.

It's also worth emphasising that the last major bombing, Omagh, was only thirty years ago. 29 dead and 200+ injured. Three of the four most expensive terrorist attacks in history, anywhere in the world, were carried out by the provisional IRA in the 1990s. This is very recent history.

21 years ago. Omagh bombing happened in 1998.

cupcakeunicorn · Mar 14, 2019

The Hobo said:
21 years ago. Omagh bombing happened in 1998.

Yeah I can't do simple addition apparently! Edited my post.

JonnyDBrit · Mar 14, 2019

daxy said:
Thanks. I would hope that time and perspective has minimized the risk of this, but opening an old wound like that is indeed not a great call. Who are these factions and what do they even stand to gain from conflict? Seems like something nobody would benefit from.

Now that I think about it, it's really odd that we weren't taught about this in history class in the Netherlands but did focus on faraway conflicts.

Varying shades of 'republican' - those seeking union with the Republic of Ireland - and 'loyalist' - those wanting to maintain union with the United Kingdom - forces; one thing to bear in mind with this stuff is how there is often correlation in terms of other identities but that aren't necessarily guaranteed. So the aforementioned 'republican' might technically be a royalist in terms of liking the British crown - they just don't like the specific circumstances of Northern Ireland. Most aren't though.

In terms of more specific units, you've got the 'New' IRA (formerly the 'Real' IRA, a splinter off the old 'Provisional' IRA; the historic IRA became the actual army of Ireland) as a prime example; republican dissidents who, if they had the manpower, would try to oust the British by force. As is, they have often targeted police and/or military, bombs in the mail and such. On the other side you've got groups like the 'Ulster Volunteer Force', who while they've officially disarmed and ceased campaigning, have been caught engaging in vigilantism, drug trafficking, sparking riots, and also getting into pissing contests with other 'loyalist' groups. A car bomb was set off in Derry at the start of the year, and you may have heard of the recent letter bombs in the UK; both claimed by the New IRA, and while they deny Brexit as a specific motivating factor - because y'know, they don't like the British in any fashion, even with the current seamless border - that it could nevertheless inflame things is a genuine concern.

Zappy · Mar 14, 2019

Have to say - the risk we are headed to no deal increased rather than decreased last night. Everything is now totally chaotic and unpredictable but given there is no guarantee of an extension if we haven't agreed a deal, and given Farage is doing his best to bribe some countries into blocking an extension...I smell real danger here.

May's deal MIGHT pass - but only if Brexiteers genuinely feel no deal is off the table and the other option is a long delay. But I worry that Brexiteers can now smell a no deal chance because of the utter chaos and because there is a chance no rational plan can be put before the EU in time to agree a long extension anyway.

Hagi · Mar 14, 2019

It's absolutely ridiculous that she can put her deal across three times in a row after getting soundly defeated twice. What a farce this shit has been.

Veliladon · Mar 14, 2019

Labour proving that even with the government in omnishambles, the opposition can still be worse.

Veliladon · Mar 14, 2019

Zappy said:
May's deal MIGHT pass - but only if Brexiteers genuinely feel no deal is off the table and the other option is a long delay. But I worry that Brexiteers can now smell a no deal chance because of the utter chaos and because there is a chance no rational plan can be put before the EU in time to agree a long extension anyway.

Well the problem is there's too many rebel europhile Tory MPs and the DUP seem intent on restarting The Troubles at this point.

Koukalaka · Mar 14, 2019

Veliladon said:
Labour proving that even with the government in omnishambles, the opposition can still be worse.

Absolute idiots

Opportunity to vote on something that's literally party policy - "hmm, no, we're good thanks".

I wonder if the whisperings of a GE earlier have allowed a certain advisor to come back to the fore.

Timmm · Mar 14, 2019

Shroki said:
And, I mean, it's the UK.

Margaret Thatcher gave everyone lifetimes worth of excuses to be shitty about female leadership and it didn't happen on a meaningful level then either.

It did give Tories a way to pretend that they aren't an inherently sexist party though

Puroresu_kid · Mar 14, 2019

Veliladon said:
Labour proving that even with the government in omnishambles, the opposition can still be worse.

Sick of labour and there reluctance to give this back to the people.

bawjaws · Mar 14, 2019

Veliladon said:
Labour proving that even with the government in omnishambles, the opposition can still be worse.

Aye, Labour have been absolutely shockingly useless throughout. Fuck them, and fuck Jeremy Corbyn, for letting us slide off the Brexit cliff-edge.

Veliladon · Mar 14, 2019

bawjaws said:
Aye, Labour have been absolutely shockingly useless throughout. Fuck them, and fuck Jeremy Corbyn, for letting us slide off the Brexit cliff-edge.

All the kids that voted Jezza as party leader are getting a sharp lesson on the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend. I'll put a hundred quid that Corbyn actually voted leave in that voting booth.

WhateverItTakes · Mar 14, 2019

Labour can only back a second ref when they're sure there's the votes for it, or as a last throw of the dice. There needs to need a number of Tories wobbling to it, a big number considering more than a few labour MPs themselves won't back it. I can see the appeal of making it an issue for next week.

Then again since the amendment has been selected perhaps this is already the last throw of the dice for a second ref.

Coxy · Mar 14, 2019

Hagi said:
It's absolutely ridiculous that she can put her deal across three times in a row after getting soundly defeated twice. What a farce this shit has been.

This. But the people aren't allowed a 2nd vote? How come she gets 3?

bawjaws · Mar 14, 2019

Yeah, Corbyn obviously isn't a Remainer but at the same time he's constantly trying to have his cake and eat it by sitting on the fence. May gets criticism (quite rightly) for putting her party ahead of the country, but Corbyn's doing exactly the same thing because he knows that Labour are divided on the EU but isn't willing to alienate half of his support by coming out one way or the other on the issue. But unfortunately for him it's fucking obvious which way he leans.

impingu1984 · Mar 14, 2019

Veliladon said:
Labour proving that even with the government in omnishambles, the opposition can still be worse.

And this is why if there was a GE I'd not be backing labour... And yet I'm in a tight seat fought by labour and Tories... Not voting labour would be mean a possible Tory win...

Labours unwillingness to have a cohesive brexit position is as much an omnishambles as the Tories ...

Fuck sake

DJKippling · Mar 14, 2019

This all seems to be about parties in fighting and making sure May fails then it does about actually getting the country the best deal.

Veliladon · Mar 14, 2019

WhateverItTakes said:
a last throw of the dice

It's *checks calendar* March 14th.

Shit or get off the pot, Corbyn.

Noodle · Mar 14, 2019

Labour will NEVER officially support a second referendum. It will always be "one step away, but next time we'll totally back it except first we'll try this..."

PipefishUK · Mar 14, 2019

MidweekCoyote said:
If Britain remains in the EU specifically because of this current crisis, that makes the UK a volatile and unpredictable member state that is both trapped in a union it doesn't wholeheartedly want AND in a massive identity crisis with itself. I do NOT want more Farages and populists in the EU parliament. I don't want more MEPs that weaken our joint institutions while giving no constructive input in how to better them.

This is why if we do manage to remain, all the remainers need to take note of and vote in European elections.

We have to stop the likes of Farage being elected.

I always always vote in European elections. But people I've spoken to on both sides have said to me, 'What? We don't get to vote for them? I don't remember any EU election.' Fucking ridiculous.

If remainers don't vote - then we might have a situation where most or all of Britain's MEPs are Farage clones and that would be really bad. Sitting there spouting shit for their stupid YouTube videos and adding nothing constructive.

Zappy · Mar 14, 2019

Koukalaka said:
Absolute idiots

Opportunity to vote on something that's literally party policy - "hmm, no, we're good thanks".

I wonder if the whisperings of a GE earlier have allowed a certain advisor to come back to the fore.

Indeed. How Labour aren't instantly backing both amendments is ridiculous.

All it does is let May say "there is no support in the house for any alternative therefore its my deal or no deal".

Deleted member 12352 · Mar 14, 2019

Speaking as a long time Corbyn supporter, he has been a dire disappointment throughout these proceedings :(

cupcakeunicorn said:
Far too few people know much of anything about the Troubles, and it's an absolute shame.

No kidding. I'm constantly amazed at how completely oblivious so many younger Irish people are about just how bad we had it during the troubles. College age relatives of mine think I'm talking out of my arse when I tell them some of the shit that went on when I was around their age.

hibikase said:
Letting the public have their say is exactly what started this whole shitshow in the first place.

Yep, and it's now the only thing that has a shot at getting us out of it. I'm not thrilled about that either, but what else can we really hope for at this stage?

Deleted member 26526 · Mar 14, 2019

Is it just me or do Labour keep changing there messages on Brexit

I'm confused as to what the hell they even stand for when it comes to Brexit right now in regards to deal, no deal, referendum etc etc.

kradical · Mar 14, 2019

While everyone is rushing to attack Labour over this, it's worth noting The People's Vote campaign also don't agree with the amendment.

The People's Vote campaign does not instruct its supporters in parliament on how to vote. We recognise there is a range of opinions on when to press the case for the public being given the final say, which means some of these MPs will vote for the Wollaston amendment, some may vote against, and some will abstain.

But we do not think today is the right time to test the will of the house on the case for a new public vote. Instead, this is the time for parliament to declare it wants an extension of article 50 so that, after two-and-a-half years of vexed negotiations, our political leaders can finally decide on what Brexit means.

That is because a People's Vote is not just another option in this Brexit crisis – it is a solution to this crisis. When the real costs of Brexit are measured up against the broken promises made for it in 2016, we believe Parliament will have better opportunities to decide it is only fair and reasonable to give the public a real say on this crucial decision for our country.

Theresa May: “If this deal is not passed then Brexit could be lost"

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