This Polish village is experiencing a demographic mystery - no boys have been born there in almost a decade

chadskin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,412

It's not a very large sample size, however:

In the years since the last baby boy was born, there have been 12 births in the village, an agricultural community on the edge of the smallest and least populated province in Poland. Residents do not know what accounts for the anomaly, but many think it might all just be a coincidence, like a run of coin flips turning up heads.
 

Betty

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,811
They're going to give a prize for the parents that birth the first boy in nearly a decade? That's a bit much lol.

It'll get really interesting if the next 88 births are all girls.
 

Sacrilicious

Member
Oct 30, 2017
190
A few people have stated this in terms of percentages, but maybe this is slightly more intuitive.

The odds of 12 girls being born in a row by chance are 1 in 4096. For any individual town that might not sound very high, but think about how many small towns are out there. It would be much more surprising if this didn't happen every now and then.
 

Sacrilicious

Member
Oct 30, 2017
190
Now multiply that by the number of small bummfucknowhere towns in the western world ( where the media is likely to pick up on a coincidence like that) and you are probably all the way there and well beyond 100%.
That's not quite the right way to do it (having >100% is a good indication), but yeah, the chance is high when you consider how many towns are out there.

If you are looking at N towns, you'd have a 1 - (4095/4096)^N chance that in at least one of them, the last 12 children were all girls. So if you have 10,000 towns, the probability is already over 90% that this will happen at least once.

In this case, the low birth rate makes it more "meaningful" (and would reduce the number of eligible towns) but there are still more than enough to make it likely.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,263
The odds of 12 girls being born in a row by chance are 1 in 4096. For any individual town that might not sound very high, but think about how many small towns are out there. It would be much more surprising if this didn't happen every now and then.
From a statistics point of view, it is also a 1 in 2048. The first one isn't important, it is just that the next 11 have to be the same gender as the first one.
 

i-Lo

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
9,873
Not America
When nature has to take matter into its own hands to compensate for female infanticide and female murder victims thanks to honour killings, serial killings, incels, right wing extremists and general violence against women.

That bit about "prize for parents with a son".... was uh.. interesting. Presumably there are examples of the opposite in places where patriarchal traditions have caused severe imbalance in the opposite way.
 

Sacrilicious

Member
Oct 30, 2017
190
From a statistics point of view, it is also a 1 in 2048. The first one isn't important, it is just that the next 11 have to be the same gender as the first one.
I was just speaking in the context of 12 girls but yes, if you don't care which gender they are you'll double the odds.

Nope, that's known as the gambler's fallacy. What's done is done, it doesn't affect any future statistics. The chance of the next birth being a boy is still 50/50 like anywhere else.
 

Annubis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,113
So, like, if your kid is male, would you be afraid that the rest of the village would try to kill you and your family?