It's not a very large sample size, however:
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This Polish village is experiencing a demographic mystery - no boys have been born there in almost a decade
- Thread starter chadskin
- Start date
It's not a very large sample size, however:
Sure is, but (oversimplifying by assuming a 50 50 chance) its still a 0,03% coincidence
Now multiply that by the number of small bummfucknowhere towns in the western world ( where the media is likely to pick up on a coincidence like that) and you are probably all the way there and well beyond 100%.
The video is cute as all hell.
The smallest girl is always facing the wrong way.
(0,5^12)*100% = 0,0244140625%
Even less than that.
It's not impossible but highly unlikely.
I just rounded up because I didn't want people to yell at me because afaik the chance for a girl is over 50%.
But yeah, it's not a common thing.
considering the demostrable gender imbalances in other places, then 12 is nothing....
A few people have stated this in terms of percentages, but maybe this is slightly more intuitive.
The odds of 12 girls being born in a row by chance are 1 in 4096. For any individual town that might not sound very high, but think about how many small towns are out there. It would be much more surprising if this didn't happen every now and then.
The odds of 12 girls being born in a row by chance are 1 in 4096. For any individual town that might not sound very high, but think about how many small towns are out there. It would be much more surprising if this didn't happen every now and then.
That's not quite the right way to do it (having >100% is a good indication), but yeah, the chance is high when you consider how many towns are out there.
If you are looking at N towns, you'd have a 1 - (4095/4096)^N chance that in at least one of them, the last 12 children were all girls. So if you have 10,000 towns, the probability is already over 90% that this will happen at least once.
In this case, the low birth rate makes it more "meaningful" (and would reduce the number of eligible towns) but there are still more than enough to make it likely.
Yeah, I have a cousin who has 12 kids and all of them boys. And they wanted a girl. Talk about bad luck.
From a statistics point of view, it is also a 1 in 2048. The first one isn't important, it is just that the next 11 have to be the same gender as the first one.
When nature has to take matter into its own hands to compensate for female infanticide and female murder victims thanks to honour killings, serial killings, incels, right wing extremists and general violence against women.
That bit about "prize for parents with a son".... was uh.. interesting. Presumably there are examples of the opposite in places where patriarchal traditions have caused severe imbalance in the opposite way.
That bit about "prize for parents with a son".... was uh.. interesting. Presumably there are examples of the opposite in places where patriarchal traditions have caused severe imbalance in the opposite way.
I was just speaking in the context of 12 girls but yes, if you don't care which gender they are you'll double the odds.
Nope, that's known as the gambler's fallacy. What's done is done, it doesn't affect any future statistics. The chance of the next birth being a boy is still 50/50 like anywhere else.
OP
OP
Statistitians hate them! Learn the terrible secrets that power this village's infernal female machine!
