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Tom Warren: “hardly anyone has them” (Scarlett dev kits) “They’re no where near final”

Oct 28, 2017
1,274
Imagine if the roles were reversed and the tweet said Sony holding back dev kits to surprise MS... the responses would be in FULL AGREEMENT with it.
That's kinda how it works when you're the winner. People tend to forgive little missteps.

When you're the hard loser (as in, about to be overtaken by a newer arrival), people are less generous with perceived fuck ups.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,527
A little behind, massively behind. None of that matters if MS doesn't have the exclusive quality output to match the competition.

They can survive having weaker hardware or launching slightly later. They cannot survive having worse exclusive content than Sony and Nintendo. Not again. This information is nothing to worry about, in my mind, but all eyes should be on their studios and how they compete against the best in the industry moving forward.
Well said. None of the hardware talk matters at all for either next gen consoles. I feel both of them will be too similar spec wise for any of this to make a difference. The deciding factor next gen will be software.

The console that is able to provide more compelling software to consumers is the console that will pull off the win. I’m sure Microsoft and Sony know this and that’s why we’ve seen both of them recently acquire a fair amount of studios towards the end of this gen. I’m personally happy with this direction and I look forward to them competing in what matters the most, the games.
 

Taurus

Member
Jun 15, 2018
134
Well said. None of the hardware talk matters at all for either next gen consoles. I feel both of them will be too similar spec wise for any of this to make a difference. The deciding factor next gen will be software.

The console that is able to provide more compelling software to consumers is the console that will pull off the win. I’m sure Microsoft and Sony know this and that’s why we’ve seen both of them recently acquire a fair amount of studios towards the end of this gen. I’m personally happy with this direction and I look forward to them competing in what matters the most, the games.
Neither of them cares about "winning". Getting subscribers and active users = making more money.

You can be commercially successful in several ways.
 

AmFreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,102
360 sold gangbusters at launch. Its launch games like Kameo weren't that good. I believe having a whole year to themselves was incredibly beneficial. Despite whatever happened with the PS3.
It was far from selling gangbusters (every console that came after it shipped more).
But of course you are right with the launch time being incredibly beneficial to them.
 
Oct 31, 2017
1,527
Neither of them cares about "winning". Getting subscribers and active users = making more money.

You can be commercially successful in several ways.
Well winning usually means more active users or subscribers so I’m sure they both want to “win” on some level to get the maximum number of subscribers possible from the console space even if a majority of their potential customers are on phones/tablets/PCs. I feel both consoles will be commercially successful regardless but they will still be competing for dominance in the console space.
 

Aokiji

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,022
Los Angeles
Shrug.

I heard the 2019 target in early 2017 and before. After that I stopped hearing it, and I think even posted that I didn’t know the release in early 2018.

Various plans are made, shit changes, ideas get miscommunicated or misunderstood. I was gonna say that’s business, but really that’s just life.
See. Sounds about right. Matt hearing about 2019 in 2017 and then not again lines up with the rest. All sounds like one shifting plan, as these things usually are
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,274
overtaken by new arrival meaning switch?
"Newer" (please quote me accurately. It's a real pet peeve of mine) and yes. The Switch.
Neither of them cares about "winning". Getting subscribers and active users = making more money.

You can be commercially successful in several ways.
I disagree. Not with being commercially successful, but with not wanting to be the winner. You don't get into this industry just to tread water or be adequate. The benefits of being market leader vastly outweigh being second or third place.
 
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Oct 27, 2017
419
It was far from selling gangbusters (every console that came after it shipped more).
But of course you are right with the launch time being incredibly beneficial to them.
The 360 sold incredibly well in the US, partly due to having the first year of that generation to itself. In the same vein that the PS2 was the ubiquitous console before it, the 360 ended up taking that place.
 

ILikeFeet

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,487
I'm curious is early dev kits even allow for ray tracing. I'm sure Sony and MS will want some titles using it at launch. if MS is still on generic pcs, are they running unreleased RDNA2 cards or nah?
 

AmFreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,102
The 360 sold incredibly well in the US, partly due to having the first year of that generation to itself. In the same vein that the PS2 was the ubiquitous console before it, the 360 ended up taking that place.
Maybe read what the subject was (hint: "360 sold gangbusters at launch") before replying with something completely different?
 
Oct 27, 2017
419
Maybe read what the subject was (hint: "360 sold gangbusters at launch") before replying with something completely different?
How is it different? I'm not denying that the first year of the 360's life was critical to its success. The 360 was a behemoth in the US, the numbers prove that. The PS3 did not truly shine in the US until Sony gave the console a rebranding in 2009 with the $299 price and first Slim model.
 

AmFreak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,102
How is it different? I'm not denying that the first year of the 360's life was critical to its success. The 360 was a behemoth in the US, the numbers prove that. The PS3 did not truly shine in the US until Sony gave the console a rebranding in 2009 with the $299 price and first Slim model.
It didn't sell gangbusters at launch (not even in the US that also wasn't the subject) that's all i said.
Even the full first 12 months in the US aka the time without the PS3 were by far it's worst (while it represented the current gen obviously).
 

litebrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,141
It didn't sell gangbusters at launch (not even in the US that also wasn't the subject) that's all i said.
Even the full first 12 months in the US aka the time without the PS3 were by far it's worst (while it represented the current gen obviously).
It was sold out for large segments of time during it's full first 12 months in the US.
 

Fastidioso

Member
Nov 3, 2017
2,931
In what way MS can surprise Sony? Even if it is the more powerful I don't see possible a dramatic the difference in raw performance between the 2 hardware.
 

litebrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,141
It's a factor obviously I just think that's it's not as important as people here make it sound. I believe a delayed but stronger launch is better than a rushed release.
In the 360's case, I do believe the launch time advantage did matter more in that specific instance at that specific time but in general I think you're right.
 

Deleted member 52407

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 23, 2019
178
A little behind, massively behind. None of that matters if MS doesn't have the exclusive quality output to match the competition.

They can survive having weaker hardware or launching slightly later. They cannot survive having worse exclusive content than Sony and Nintendo. Not again. This information is nothing to worry about, in my mind, but all eyes should be on their studios and how they compete against the best in the industry moving forward.
This is the truth, IMO.

I seem to remember Xbox One coming very close to Sony's first 18 months in sales because they had a better launch lineup than Sony (first two years) then Sony's well known legs stretched.

They need to release sequels as well. Sunset Overdrive should have had a sequel, D4, Ryse, Crimson Dragon & Killer Instinct, etc, all should have proper sequels. Quantum Break needed a sequel too, or Control should have been exclusive. Its always Halo, Forza, Gears and their various incarnations. Its really annoying.
 

litebrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,141
This is the truth, IMO.

I seem to remember Xbox One coming very close to Sony's first 18 months in sales because they had a better launch lineup than Sony (first two years) then Sony's well known legs stretched.

They need to release sequels as well. Sunset Overdrive should have had a sequel, D4, Ryse, Crimson Dragon & Killer Instinct, etc, all should have proper sequels. Quantum Break needed a sequel too, or Control should have been exclusive. Its always Halo, Forza, Gears and their various incarnations. Its really annoying.
MS had the games but didn't have the first party studios and development pipeline to consistently pump out high quality games compared to Sony. The mismanagement and reliance on third party studios that made exclusive games that didn't sell well, MS buying exclusivity or timed exclusivity from multi plat games, or MS didn't own the IP ultimately made MS reevaluate and invest in first party. Also services such as Game Pass will have more impact at the beginning of a new gen.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,274
This post is nonsense given Xbox's overall direction with Game Pass, PC, console, and XCloud. Only console warrior's can't see beyond a lens of only console sales.
This is annoying, honestly. Sales will always matter, there is nothing console war-ish or fanboy-ish about it.

If MS can sustain their business or even thrive without being market leader, thats great. But sales do matter. It determines what development teams will risk making games for your console, if audiences are viable for indies, and maybe more.
 

Funkallero

Member
Oct 28, 2017
811
Tokyo
Neither of them cares about "winning". Getting subscribers and active users = making more money.

You can be commercially successful in several ways.
They care about having a sizable install base of their console to sell said services.
The more consoles you have in the wild, the more you can sell services.
 

DrScissorsMD

Member
Jan 19, 2019
352
This is annoying, honestly. Sales will always matter, there is nothing console war-ish or fanboy-ish about it.

If MS can sustain their business or even thrive without being market leader, thats great. But sales do matter. It determines what development teams will risk making games for your console, if audiences are viable for indies, and maybe more.
Yeah, nah. Sales matter but not nearly as much as people push. People completely ignore Micro’s game pass strategy to shout “but muh sales”. Saying sales are the be-all and end-all for what dev teams you get to make games for you or what audiences you might get for your indies is clearly negated by the amount of studios they’ve just acquired and the amount of indies available on game pass. They’re going to get more indies, not less, as by all accounts they’re getting paid upfront for their indies and not having to worry about actual audience numbers.
 

Judge

Vault-Tec Seal of Approval
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
2,102
This is annoying, honestly. Sales will always matter, there is nothing console war-ish or fanboy-ish about it.

If MS can sustain their business or even thrive without being market leader, thats great. But sales do matter. It determines what development teams will risk making games for your console, if audiences are viable for indies, and maybe more.
You still aren’t getting their point. The Xbox ecosystem is more than just console sales. Console sales could be “low” but offset by high xCloud usage. Devs aren’t just looking at console sales in regards to Xbox anymore. They look at Xbox console, PC (windows store), and now xCloud.

If game devs aren’t making games for Xbox ecosystem it’s because all of those listed options aren’t resonating with the audience, not just the console portion

But all signs are pointing towards indie and dev relations being higher for the brand than they ever have been. Game series like yakuza and kingdom hearts that have never been available on Xbox finally coming, indies lining up left and right to put their games day one on game pass, extending their console games to Microsoft’s PC store, and enabling games for xCloud usage. This isn’t stopping, its GROWING
 
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sleepr

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,759
As has been said, information is shared before kits are released, and kits are updated several times before they are finalized.

The targets for these systems are shared early, because developers need to know what to aim for.

I feel like a lot a people in these threads are reading radically different things from “sources” who are generally all saying the same things.
You've been saying the same thing for months now. I guess some people just like to ignore your comments because they don't like what they read.

Thanks once again.
 

litebrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,141
This is annoying, honestly. Sales will always matter, there is nothing console war-ish or fanboy-ish about it.

If MS can sustain their business or even thrive without being market leader, thats great. But sales do matter. It determines what development teams will risk making games for your console, if audiences are viable for indies, and maybe more.
Nobody said sales said don't matter. Only that console sales will only make up a piece of the Xbox pie and only tell a part of Xbox's success.
 

litebrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,141
Yeah, nah. Sales matter but not nearly as much as people push. People completely ignore Micro’s game pass strategy to shout “but muh sales”. Saying sales are the be-all and end-all for what dev teams you get to make games for you or what audiences you might get for your indies is clearly negated by the amount of studios they’ve just acquired and the amount of indies available on game pass. They’re going to get more indies, not less, as by all accounts they’re getting paid upfront for their indies and not having to worry about actual audience numbers.
You still aren’t getting their point. The Xbox ecosystem is more than just console sales. Console sales could be “low” but offset by high xCloud usage. Devs aren’t just looking at console sales in regards to Xbox anymore. They look at Xbox console, PC (windows store), and now xCloud.

If game devs aren’t making games for Xbox ecosystem it’s because all of those listed options aren’t resonating with the audience, not just the console portion

But all signs are pointing towards indie and dev relations being higher for the brand than they ever have been. Game series like yakuza and kingdom hearts that have never been available on Xbox finally coming, indies lining up left and right to put their games day one on game pass, extending their console games to Microsoft’s PC store, and enabling games for xCloud usage. This isn’t stopping, its GROWING
Thank you!!!
 

DarkSlayer

Member
Jan 18, 2018
18
Pakistan
It's silly to think what Tom said is true. Sony and MS buy from the same vendor, they will utilize the solutions the vendor has available in 2020. They will have some custom tweaks of their own, but overall, you can expect them to be identical again.

It's not hard to make an educated guess on what your competition will likely use, especially given the MSRP ceiling is $500 - arguably.

MS is in a position to sell at a loss, they may be looking for another comeback, but I don't buy the story that they are keeping dev kits away just so Sony doesn't know. I think the only spec that may change at the last minute is RAM, there's not a lot Sony can do.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,274
Yeah, nah. Sales matter but not nearly as much as people push. People completely ignore Micro’s game pass strategy to shout “but muh sales”. Saying sales are the be-all and end-all for what dev teams you get to make games for you or what audiences you might get for your indies is clearly negated by the amount of studios they’ve just acquired and the amount of indies available on game pass. They’re going to get more indies, not less, as by all accounts they’re getting paid upfront for their indies and not having to worry about actual audience numbers.
You still aren’t getting their point. The Xbox ecosystem is more than just console sales. Console sales could be “low” but offset by high xCloud usage. Devs aren’t just looking at console sales in regards to Xbox anymore. They look at Xbox console, PC (windows store), and now xCloud.

If game devs aren’t making games for Xbox ecosystem it’s because all of those listed options aren’t resonating with the audience, not just the console portion
No, I think that is the part I understand. Sales aren't their sole metric to determine success. But sales will matter. They always will. Not in some dick measuring contest way, though. As I've said before with Japanese game developers: does xcloud and gamepass have enough penetration in those markets to make it worth it? In mainland China? Brazil? That's where sales matter, right?

I will admit to being uninformed on how indies are compensated (you say paid upfront, I assumed they got a portion of sale revenue) so maybe it's better for smaller devs to get a flat rate? I'm not well versed in that subject.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,791
It's silly to think what Tom said is true. Sony and MS buy from the same vendor, they will utilize the solutions the vendor has available in 2020. They will have some custom tweaks of their own, but overall, you can expect them to be identical again.

It's not hard to make an educated guess on what your competition will likely use, especially given the MSRP ceiling is $500 - arguably.

MS is in a position to sell at a loss, they may be looking for another comeback, but I don't buy the story that they are keeping dev kits away just so Sony doesn't know. I think the only spec that may change at the last minute is RAM, there's not a lot Sony can do.
Pretty much.

Both consoles will have almost identical tech specs outside of their particular specifications with that hardware.

All this other stuff is for the birds.
 

litebrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,141
No, I think that is the part I understand. Sales aren't their sole metric to determine success. But sales will matter. They always will. Not in some dick measuring contest way, though. As I've said before with Japanese game developers: does xcloud and gamepass have enough penetration in those markets to make it worth it? In mainland China? Brazil? That's where sales matter, right?

I will admit to being uninformed on how indies are compensated (you say paid upfront, I assumed they got a portion of sale revenue) so maybe it's better for smaller devs to get a flat rate? I'm not well versed in that subject.
NOBODY SAID CONSOLE SALES DON"T MATTER. Quit this strawman argument. The point is Xbox's overall business is way more than just consoles.
 

Sonicfan059

Member
Mar 4, 2018
2,555
NOBODY SAID CONSOLE SALES DON"T MATTER. Quit this strawman argument. The point is Xbox's overall business is way more than just consoles.
Nah there are people downplaying sells on this forum. Consoles are their main driver and will be for some time. It'll take many years before Xcloud is close to the revenue of their console sells.
 

litebrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,141
Nah there are people downplaying sells on this forum. Consoles are their main driver and will be for some time. It'll take many years before Xcloud is close to the revenue of their console sells.
Once again they are more than that. All of their first party games will be released on PC (Windows store and Steam). Game Pass subscriptions on PC and console, Minecraft will remain a multiplatform juggernaut, XCloud will allow subscriptions on more devices like tablet and mobile. These business markets will only grow.

This is in addition to console sales and game sales on the console.
 

pixelation

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,894
Yeah I bet they want to outgun Sony, but by how much though?, and at what cost?, do they not care if they end up being the pricier console next round?, will they have to reach into their deep deep pocket so as to not pass along the higher price tag to their customers if that ends up being the case?, more importantly... who cares if it ends up being the more powerful console when at the end of the day you can still play their 1st party exclusives on a much beefier PC anyways?
 

SotaSkoldier

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14
Verge just gave misterxmedia a chub
God I had so much fun destroying that man's community with a few of my friends. Started a competing website and everything haha. Literally copied and pasted his jibberish and broke it down line by line proving he's full of shit. Eventually I got legit death threats and everything. His lame ass livejournal was cleared eventually and he made this forum where it was nothing more than four or five people screaming into the empty nothingness of the internet.
 

DrScissorsMD

Member
Jan 19, 2019
352
No, I think that is the part I understand. Sales aren't their sole metric to determine success. But sales will matter. They always will. Not in some dick measuring contest way, though. As I've said before with Japanese game developers: does xcloud and gamepass have enough penetration in those markets to make it worth it? In mainland China? Brazil? That's where sales matter, right?

I will admit to being uninformed on how indies are compensated (you say paid upfront, I assumed they got a portion of sale revenue) so maybe it's better for smaller devs to get a flat rate? I'm not well versed in that subject.
To use Japan/China/Brazil as examples, Xbox already has tiny mindshare/adoption rates in those countries. And it’s not for lack of trying on MS’s part. Xcloud if anything gives a far cheaper less risky option for people in those markets to potentially try or use Xbox.
Exact returns or payment structures aren’t known for Gamepass, but it’s definitely known that games going onto gamepass are paid for up front and not on a per-download or per-hours-played model, thankfully.
 
Nov 11, 2017
1,590
God I had so much fun destroying that man's community with a few of my friends. Started a competing website and everything haha. Literally copied and pasted his jibberish and broke it down line by line proving he's full of shit. Eventually I got legit death threats and everything. His lame ass livejournal was cleared eventually and he made this forum where it was nothing more than four or five people screaming into the empty nothingness of the internet.
I honestly see him brought up here more than I've actually seen anything from him. What's the weird infatuation with a random internet shit poster? It's rather disturbing how some still discuss him.