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Tuesday, November 5th Election Results: Virginia, Kentucky and Mississippi

BADMAN

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,696
Alright we doing avatar bets now. I'm betting that the recount is gonna be rigged and Bevin wins anyway. Who wants to take that bet?
 

Parthenios

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
4,084
As far as I can tell, McConnell"s endurace comes from him not being hated back then + the fact that Kentucky became solidly republican. He won his first senate race by outing the dem incumbent by only 0.40% of the vote. He was able to survive the 2008 destruction by almost 6 points.

The difference since then is that, around ten years ago, Kentucky voters started to fucking despise Mitch. Thats why Grimes challenged him in 2014 but that election was a Red Wave and Kentucky voters realized "oh shit, I thought about voting for a democrat? nvm lol" so Grimes got crushed.

Would a better opponent do better in a democratic wave year, considering Kentucky voters hate him more than ever? Yeah, its likely.

Will this opponent beat him? Incredibly unlikely.
They sent McGrath to die so she wouldn't muck up a competitive race, but what if it's ShyamalanTwist.gif and the Senate race was actually the competitive race?!
 
Aug 12, 2019
505
Thanks for the reassurances and good vibes everyone, I'll need them as Bevin drags this out.

For those curious about KY, the easiest way to understand our politics is that we always run terrible candidates nearly across the board, so people tend to vote on party lines, and very specifically the typical single voter issues of guns and abortion swing people towards the Republican party. It's a sad state of affairs, but Democrats have very traditionally put up fairly poor candidates for most positions to begin with, individuals who just don't resonate with the voters as people and thus fail to overcome any party lines they otherwise might through likability. If Beshear indeed takes this election as he should based upon tonight's results, he'll have succeeded specifically because he campaigned on that sort of platform of reaching out to Kentuckians and as a likable alternative to the famously unpopular and unlikable Matt Bevin.

Which is why I do have a small amount of hope for Amy McGrath. It's still a long shot to get Mitch removed, but she's one of the better candidates I've seen in a while. If sports broadcaster Matt Jones runs, he might be better positioned to take on McConnel actually given he's a well liked presence in the state. Again, it's a long shot, but a senate seat in KY might indeed be in play in 2020.
 
Oct 27, 2017
13,564
Seattle
Nervous about ballot initiatives here in Washington. Turn out potentially worse than normal in King county (Seattle), Dems
Make strong margins here, but struggle in most of the state.

 

Exellus

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,258
Thanks for the reassurances and good vibes everyone, I'll need them as Bevin drags this out.

For those curious about KY, the easiest way to understand our politics is that we always run terrible candidates nearly across the board, so people tend to vote on party lines, and very specifically the typical single voter issues of guns and abortion swing people towards the Republican party. It's a sad state of affairs, but Democrats have very traditionally put up fairly poor candidates for most positions to begin with, individuals who just don't resonate with the voters as people and thus fail to overcome any party lines they otherwise might through likability. If Beshear indeed takes this election as he should based upon tonight's results, he'll have succeeded specifically because he campaigned on that sort of platform of reaching out to Kentuckians and as a likable alternative to the famously unpopular and unlikable Matt Bevin.

Which is why I do have a small amount of hope for Amy McGrath. It's still a long shot to get Mitch removed, but she's one of the better candidates I've seen in a while. If sports broadcaster Matt Jones runs, he might be better positioned to take on McConnel actually given he's a well liked presence in the state. Again, it's a long shot, but a senate seat in KY might indeed be in play in 2020.
Check out Mike Broihier. He's my favorite Senate primary candidate of them all.

 

Madison

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
6,375
Lima, Peru
They sent McGrath to die so she wouldn't muck up a competitive race, but what if it's ShyamalanTwist.gif and the Senate race was actually the competitive race?!
McGrath has a clear tactic, and its "laser focus on Mitch and dont criticize Trump because otherwise I might be killed" which...is certainly...an strategy.

Only time will tell if she"ll make it work but, to be honest, she"s walking a fine line between pissing off conversatives and making sure she has her base motivated.
 
Oct 27, 2017
13,564
Seattle
Looks like the amazon democrats have early leads in Seattle City council races.

King Countyis defeating the car tab initiative, but the state is starting to catch up
 
Oct 27, 2017
13,564
Seattle
Car tab initiative is going to win. King county voters voting no at 56% clip. It’s down 8 percent

Affirmative Action is getting repealed if the no votes hold onto .5% lead
 

Malakai

Member
Oct 27, 2017
432
Every vote matters, the Virginian Democratic rep I voted for is only ahead of a Republican incumbent by 18 votes.
 

Roland Garros

Alt Account
Banned
Aug 9, 2019
68
I dunno, there’s definitely positives out of tonight (Virginia going all blue), but I wouldn’t be getting too ahead of ourselves.

Bevin was incredibly disliked in Kentucky for his idiotic attack on teachers, and he never quite recovered from it. I think the election is more of a reflection of Bevin as an awful candidate than Democrats claiming a huge scalp.

In every other race in Kentucky, Republicans won easily, and we’ve seen how Mississippi went. I wouldn’t be reading too much into this as a rejection of Trump. Bevin losing is an anomaly, in my opinion, not the continuation of a trend.
 
Oct 27, 2017
13,564
Seattle
Yup. I told my wife it feels like Washington is socially liberal, but fiscally conservative. Vote yes on pot and gay marriage, vote no on new taxes.

If King county does not come out in huge support of a initiative, they will never pass. Hell, the car tabs only got 56% no in king, it needed to be at 65-66% to have a shot.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,558

corasaur

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,497
Is this a sign that McConnell could be in trouble in Kentucky?
Bevin wound up uniquely unpopular because he, as a state politician, got actual blame for issues like fucking over teachers that congresspeople usually get away with by doing more indirectly. Bevin also got none of the credit for things like anti-choice judges that make R senators popular with their base. Then, Bevin also injected himself into every second of everything like a wannabe Trump and acted like a crass asshole that it was impossible for his potential voters to ignore. He layered a bonus Trumpian effect atop the normal trump effect and made tons of people who otherwise voted straight R vote for beshear.

McConnell will get more credit for appointing religious extremists to lifetime judgeships, less blame for ruining the lives of his constituents, and will not constantly be on the news making incredibly dumb unforced errors that annoy the fuck out of people. He's probably still safe unless our candidate turns out to be an absolute campaign beast and the economy completely dies in 6 months.