I don't think they did. They tried to call the US' bluff and were under the impression that the US would still sell them the F35. Now they've lost the jets and will lose their share of the part manufacturing.
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Turkey accepting Russian Missile Defensive System Could Result in Severe US Sanctions (WaPo)
- Thread starter Piecake
- Start date
Many countries, including first world ones, have higher debt/gdp ratios than the US.
And none has printed the amount of money the US has. Currency markets and valuations are determined by supply and demand. There is a demand for dollars because oil is traded in dollars. There is a demand because many countries buy dollar securities as a way to hedge for their own currencies. The moment demand drops, dollars will come state side. The inflation you see in the stock market today will be nothing.
Want to see a country that has stagnated? Look at Japan, and all their debt is mainly owned by Japanese. Want to see how markets can devalue a currency? Look no further than what George Soros did when he speculated on the pound which was enough for John Major to take it off the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. No fiat currency is immune to these pressures.
You need to see documentation that NATO systems need to be compatible with NATO systems? Wut?
You said it's a violation of NATO, and I'm wondering how.
I'm fairly certain there's nothing in the NATO charter about documentation of missile systems.
I honestly don't think that's what it's about, just see how the US gets equally pissy when non NATO countries tries to buy that system.
It's in violation because the systems have to be compatible with each other. They don't have to be American made, but they need to be part of the same system. The Russian system would not be compatible with NATO systems.
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It's not a violation per say, but the way Erdogan has been acting lately puts his loyalty to NATO into serious question. NATO can't afford to risk the possibility that Turkey will leak intelligence or worse to Russia in a case of heightened tensions. If Erdogan keeps this up he might force their hand.
You keep repeating that it's a violation of NATO but I honestly don't think that's true, at all.
Maybe I'm wrong, it wouldn't be the first time, but I honestly think you need to back up your assertion with something, anything.
For real, the treaty is not that long, you can read it all here -
Maybe I'm missing something but I'm not sure in what is this in violation of it.
Is it a to-the-letter violation, I don't know. But the systems are supposed to be able to work in conjunction with each other. Regardless, the bigger issue Turkey is continuing to ally themselves with the west's biggest adversary, thus dwindling their importance and reliability to NATO. Their geographic location is obviously extremely important, but there has to be a line eventually that can't be crossed. When/if Turkey gets there, I don't know.
There are people in Turkey (and apparently this thread) that want the country to become a full-on Russian ally, fully equipped with their weaponry and defenses. If that happens, they could not be part of NATO.
For sure, but I honestly think this is mostly just the US being its usual pissy self where countries try to buy non American weapons.
I mean, the US threatened India with sanctions when they wanted to buy the same missile system.
Okay so unless someone want to take the other position I'm just gonna go ahead and say that this is not a violation of NATO.
And I don't know which people are you talking about, but you seem to want to kick Turkey out of NATO, don't you think that's gonna push Turkey toward Russia?
Also, saying that NATO has final say in what country can and cannot buy is a pretty damn big departure from it's charter, and a rather huge encroachment on a country's sovereignty. I know the US often act like it has the right to do that, but NATO members have not signed up any to any of that.
If the US think there's a good reason for Turkey to not buy that system (and no, "we want you to buy our weapons" is not a great reason, neither is "we want to make sure no country can shoot down our planes" isn't either) it can and should talk to it about it, but I don't think it can act like Turkey is breaking any treaty it signed on.
p.s.
Fun fact: there isn't actually a mechanism to expel a NATO member, so if you really want to go through with that you're gonna have to figure out how to do that first.
Plenty of NATO members use non-standardised equipment, especially former members of the Warsaw Pact.
I don't want to kick Turkey out, at the present. But they are rapidly becoming a Russia ally over a NATO one, and it is a problem that will eventually need to be addressed.
Not ones that come with Russian techs and phone back home, I'd imagine.
I thought that when you said "Turkey should have been kicked out of NATO ages ago" you meant that you want it kicked. My mistake.
In any case, if what you want is to strengthen the ties between Turkey and NATO, hitting them with sanctions on behalf of the US arms industry might not be the best movie.
I may have been a bit brash there. lol They are certainly a concern, though.
There is most certainly a lot to be concerned with regards to Turkey and Russia, I didn't mean to say otherwise (though I can see why my posts might read like that).
I just think this specific shit is not really about that. American foreign policy is HEAVILY invested in getting other countries to buy American made weapons, and I don't think this is motivated by only good reasons.
Seriously, of all the shit that Turkey does, is there anything that the US is reacting more harshly to than them going with a competitor arms dealer?
I don't think they put spyware in their s-400, I really don't. I'm not an expert, but Poland has MiG-29s, there are Russian made weapon platforms in use by NATO and people who knows about that shit more than you and I seem to think that's okay.
Air defense systems aren't just a few tubes on a truck, it needs radar and fire control at least. The S-400 won't just plug into NATO ones, so Turkey is going to need quite a few compatible things.
Polish MiGs have had their relevant systems changed out for NATO-compatible ones a while ago.
Are you sure the agreement covers missile defense systems?
If we are talking about this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standardization_Agreement
Then there are plenty of equipment which isn't compatible, because it is so complex, old, classified or simply rare.
Are you saying that Polish MiG 29s got their Russian radar and/or fire control system replaced by a western made one?
Because I don't think that's true.
p.s.
The Polish military also uses Russian made air defense systems, and they're not the only NATO member who does that.
I'm saying that there is a difference between using old equipment that you have worked with for decades and buying new systems that require third-party techs and instructors and have been designed in the digital age.
Well you're right in that you're not an expert.
The problem isn't just "spyware," it's also that in order to integrate such a system it needs to access a lot of sensitive information, like encryption keys, communication protocols, identification-friend-or-foe (IFF) tags, etc. Contractors are always involved in setting up military systems, such as setting up training, and yes- integration. The problem here is that the contractor is a Russian-government owned entity, and their employees will be crawling around everywhere getting the system up and running regardless of how careful the Turkish military tries to be. So basically, Turkey is giving the Russia military/defense industry a golden opportunity to steal just heaps of intelligence about NATO technology and capabilities.
If you're keeping track, this is really bad for NATO, and what's known in international alliance circles as "a total dick move" on the part of Turkey.
Polish MiG-29's were different since they already had them when they joined NATO and weren't in a position to buy a new fleet of aircraft, and they have been updated for inter-operability by not-Russia. The same goes for other pieces of equipment of Russian origin, they aren't going back to Russian sources for much more than bolts, if that. And they are almost universally looking for eventual replacements that definitely aren't from Russian contractors.
I don't think this is what any of that is about and you backing your assertions with nothing.
Again, as a counter point - a lot of countries joined NATO with Russian made weapon platforms and NATO didn't make them toss them away. If you think there is some line in the sand year that after this it becomes the case, you need to back it up with something, because I don't think there is any evidence that this is true.
Maybe I'm not an expert, but I did serve in the air force (well, an air force) so something might've stuck.
Also, you seem to think that the communication/encryption systems comes built in with an air defense system, so maybe don't lecture me so much?
I also not sure you understand how IFF systems works in real life.
p.s.
Who do you think service Poland's MiG 29s?
I don't think the concern is really spyware but that Turkey will be jointly developing the system with Russia and certainly one of Russia's goals for the system is to be effective at detecting threats like the F-35 so it is problematic for Turkey to be close to any stealth design. The MiG-29 isn't a stealth fighter so doesn't really present the same conflict
Well, the relationship with the West has not been the best. It all started last year when there was a messing around with tariffs that essentially saw the Lira value collapse and lead to double digit inflation.
More and more countries are starting to look at their self interest. It is hard to forget that not long ago, Turkey shot down a Russian jet, and that they have not seen eye to eye historically. So for Erdogan to see this deal through is maybe a shock, but something that came to pass because the relationship with the US has not been the best.
Dude, the S400 is an air defense system with multiple launchers, radars, and a separate command center vehicle. Are you telling me elements of the battery don't have the capability of encrypted communication with other elements, or with other units? Are the operators going to make an open radio call to any unidentified aircraft, like "hey bro, are you friend or foe"?
Seriously, are you thinking of a MANPAD or something?
Who updates the avionics of Polish MiG-29's for NATO compatibility? Could it be... Not Russia? I mean, it's not like Poland has its own capacity for upgrading their MiG-29's, or those of other countries. I wouldn't be surprised if Poland and other NATO countries buys spare parts from Russian entities, but there's a big difference between that and something like this that has to "hook" into a lot of other systems to avoid stuff like, say, shooting down your own aircraft.
The US isnt going to allow Turkey to have an S-400 AND an F-35. They could use the S-400 to determine detection range and other critical information and pass it along to the Russians, making it easier for them to develop strategies against America's newest and soon to be main frontline fighter. They aren't going to risk any of that information going to Russia to be exploited.
Is that your concern?
Are there people who are saying that?
I honestly asking because I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense and I don't want to shadow box too much, but I have not heard anything about an s-400 Russian-Turkey co-development effort and the fact that you buy a weapon platform from a country doesn't automatically give that country access to your military secrets (on the flip side, if Turkey wanted to let Russians techs look in the classified parts of an F-35, they wouldn't need to by an air defense system for that).
DoD makes that claim
Even if Turkey didnt want to pass the information on to Russia, they, as part of NATO, would probably be keen to to see how the F-35 fares against Russia's best SAM system. That data could be hacked or leaked to the Russians.
They are co-developing the S-500
Communication system have to work across multiple units who are often made by multiple manufacturers from different countries.
The communication and encryption solutions are installed on all those platforms, they're not part of that platform and they're not made by the same companies. At most they provide a standard physical interface for you to stick it there (the headsets and such are usually party of it, but not the actual radio and encryption device). If Turkey buys an S400 system they will fit it with whatever communication platform they're currently using.
p.s.
There isn't a MiG-29 spare parts manufacturer in the west, those planes still get serviced by Russia, not all the time, but quite often.
Well, they are off the F-35 program.
https://www.dw.com/en/us-removes-turkey-from-f-35-program-after-s-400-fiasco/a-49625337
The DoD always say buy American made.
I don't know, maybe here there is a more specific actual issue, but the US wanted to slap sanctions on India for thinking about buying that system, and India doesn't have F-35s.
I honestly think there's a simpler explanation and one that is very consistent with american foreign policy.
Heh, didn't know that, thanks.
We'll see if it happens, Erdogan talks a lot of shit and AFAIK Russia has never outsource the manufacturing of their top tier air defense system, but unlike just buying weapons from the Russians, this is something that I can see the US and NATO taking serious exception of for a good reason.
I don't think this is what it's about, since again, the US throws that exact same hissy fit for countries that don't say they will do that.
I really doubt it's going to be plug-and-play for something like the S400 and NATO equipment, and you're still going to have Russian contractors with access to that equipment for training and maintenance. There is essentially no way to guarantee the physical security of equipment when you give potential adversaries that much access to it.
Poland can even service their own engines, I really don't think they are that reliant on Russia for MiG-29 maintenance and deliberately so. They sure as hell aren't going to give the Russians access to avionics.
There is a NATO standard for equipment,
There is even a standard NATO ammunition (5.56)
The US doesn't solely set the standards, for example the US used different ammunition(typically better) but switched when NATO decided on it.
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I was gonna ask if they got some sort of back door into the systems they are selling but...
that kinda answers it too.
that kinda answers it too.
I don't think any country gives weapon contractors access to their encryption equipment.
And again, if Turkey want to give Russia NATO secrets it doesn't need to buy missile defense systems from them.
A lot of NATO members don't use 556NATO (or other western made ammo) exclusively.
Also, you honestly think countries that want that system haven't considered those things?
You think they're buying that just for fun?
There are a lot of military forces that uses both Russian and American weapons, some of them are even NATO members.
Uh, who do you think builds communications equipment and integrates it into complex systems? That's like bread and butter contractor work.
The Turkish military isn't out to give Russia NATO secrets, this whole purchase is in large part a larger power play by Erdogan. It's not like any in the Turkish military are going to object to his administration at this point over pretty much anything. Regardless, having an advanced Russian air defense system integrated into a NATO military at any level is a big, huge, stupid risk for NATO.
Russian contractors don't need formal access to specific pieces of equipment, they are already going to be working on whole system. Naturally Turkey will try to restrict access so sensitive information, but in this situation it's practically impossible to guarantee security, best intentions or not.
Stop thinking this is equivalent to basic military equipment for God's sake. We're not talking about bullets or trucks. The S400 is effectively a big computerized sensor network on wheels. Having such a system on your side that a potential adversary has de facto access to is a monumentally braindead idea.
The US engages in a ton of shenanigans when it comes to the international arms trade, but this is not one of those times. Hell, the US is going to be footing a huge chunk of the bill for taking Turkey out of the F-35 supply chain for little gain.
I want to understand your argument here, you think that by buying S400 Turkey gonna have to give Russian technicians access to classified American tech?
Because that's not how those things work, at all.
Like, India has both Russian and western weapon platforms, and yet somehow the russian technician didn't manage to steal the Rafale's secrets or whatever.
You're acting like this is the first time a military deployed both Russian and American weapon platforms, and it's just not true.
Again, I think there is a way simpler explanation as to why the US want countries to buy weapons from it.
I think having adversary foreign nationals with easy access to NATO equipment is bad for NATO. This is not a complicated concept.
India is a very different situation. For one, the type of equipment that gets exported to third parties is going to be of a different quality than that shared between allies. For two, NATO integration means that a vulnerability in one nation entails a risk for all the other nations in the alliance. For three, an advanced air defense system like this is likely to be networked with many other elements, and there's a high likelihood that the original manufacturer (i.e., a Russian government-owned entity) will have to be involved in getting that working, given the inevitable incompatibility of the systems. For four, I'm not sure if you're aware of the historical context here, but NATO and Russia are not best buds.
Even if Turkey manages to keep the integration of the S-400 with all their other equipment free from Russian "help," there's still the very nature of the system to deal with. It is, among other things, a networked sensor platform designed, built, and implemented by an arm of the Russian government. It's not exactly hard to find a hidden back door to a software system that you wrote. There could hardly be a better platform for intelligence collection for them. Not only that, but there's a target that any armchair asshole could pick out: the F-35.
Speaking of money, do you know how much money in current and future sales the US is losing out on with kicking Turkey out of the F-35 program? It's like $600 million to shift the supply line alone. US contractors won't get the recurring contracts to update and arm it, or train crew, etc. It's also going to raise costs for all the other partners, which further makes the F-35 a harder sell.
If it were just about arms sales, the US would begrudgingly let the S-400 fly through, but this is obviously bigger than that.
You keep saying that buying M400 must entail giving Russians technicians access to sensitive NATO equipment but you don't back it up with anything nor can you explain why it isn't a problem in other NATO countries that use Russian technology. And again, it's true that Turkey can give Russian access to sensitive NATO equipment, but they can do it right now.
And of course India is a very different situation, which is why the fact that the US threatened them with the exact same sanctions when they wanted to buy an S400 should tell that maybe it's not about what you think it is.
Edit: oh let me also add that I don't think this is just about money. I think big part of it is that the US rely heavily on air power and it doesn't want countries to have good air defense systems. It's understandable from the US perspective, but even if you trust the US to never fuck with you, America sells its jets to other countries, and if you're in the neighborhood of Israel and Saudi Arabia, I don't think it's unreasonable to want the best air defense system you can get.
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The US: Europe needs to take up their end of the bargain and start spending on their own defense.
Europe: ok. Let buy these missiles.
The US: No! Not like that. I meant pay US money.
Europe: ok. Let buy these missiles.
The US: No! Not like that. I meant pay US money.
Funny, last time a super power put missiles in Turkey it almost caused World War 3.
Wonder if we a get reversed Cuban Missile Crisis this time, with America in response transporting nuclear warheads to......dunno, Finland?
Granted, this isn't the same as America putting nuclear missiles in Turkey as it was then, but still. Getting a sense of deja vu.
Wonder if we a get reversed Cuban Missile Crisis this time, with America in response transporting nuclear warheads to......dunno, Finland?
Granted, this isn't the same as America putting nuclear missiles in Turkey as it was then, but still. Getting a sense of deja vu.
I've already explained how this is different from existing Russian-origin inventory in NATO. For example, Poland wouldn't be operating MiG-29s if they didn't have a pile of them already, and they have been updated to work with NATO equipment. Obviously, simple Russian-origin equipment like guns or trucks are less subject to compromise than a highly networked air defense system and are therefore less of a concern. The Erdogan-Russia propaganda line you may be searching for is "Greece has S-300's!" But these are from the mid-90's and obtained in an awkward transfer from Cyprus, a very different geopolitical situation.
What else am I supposed to back up? Even if I did know the inner workings of NATO and Turkish defense networks it's not like I could write about it online. What I do know is that buying military equipment almost always entails close work between contractors and military personnel to set up. I know its a risk to let adversaries near your equipment, the contractors in this case. This is very common sense operational security. You don't invite foxes into the hen house.
I'm not making these concerns up, either, here is that Gen. Petr Pavel, chair of NATO Military Committee, had to say in March 2018. He's Czech, by the way:
Like I said, Turkey isn't out to give away intelligence to Russia. Even if they don't want to give away any sensitive information, they still are giving Russia a potential intelligence platform on their soil.
The potential sanctions for India stem from a couple itty-bitty oopsy-whoospies the Russians committed like invading Ukraine, assisting Assad in Syria, and interfering in the US Election. The US is deliberately not applying those sanctions to Turkey. Defense sales is probably also a factor in India but again, the US is torching opportunities for defense sales in Turkey. The actions against Turkey do not make any sense from an economic angle.
Turkey has a much better guarantee of safety from Israel and Saudi Arabia by being a US ally, especially one codified through NATO. This concern over air defense is nonsensical, the threat's just not there if you have NATO backing. It simply doesn't make sense to buy the S-400 unless you are Erdogan and trying to suck up to Russia.
You know, at the end of the day you argue that you know better than the Turkish military.
I mean, you can argue about what Edrugan want to do politically, but I think it's pretty damn clear that the Turkish military doesn't want to give Putin root access to their army or whatever you think they'll get from those S400.
I don't think it makes sense, and I don't think that there is any evidence that what you think happens when someone buy a Russian air defense system actually happened in reality.
But who knows? maybe this time it will be different.
Turkey =/= Europe as a whole.
Tons of European countries develop their own weapons, many of which are exported to other countries, without objection from the US.
The US isn't obligated to sell F-35s to an inconsistent and unreliable ally that is willing to get in bed with Putin.
Here are experts from Canada and Norway making the case as well. I don't think they're focused on the US defense contractor's profits, which you seem to imply:
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