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Ubisoft: Just Dance 2018 Switch #1, M+R 10-20 percent attach rate

Zedark

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This information comes courtesy of Nintendo Everything:
Nintendo Everything said:
The call also had more interesting sales tidbits about Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle and Just Dance 2018. Regarding Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle, the attach rate with Switch varies between 10 and 20 percent depending on the number of consoles that are out there, but Ubisoft's expectation is to take a big percentage of sales for the machine, so they expect a big boost during the holidays. Just Dance 2018 is also doing very well thus far as the game is #1 there and is the biggest format.
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It's hard to dissect exactly what this means for Mario + Rabbids, but I think it's safe to assume that it passed 1 million, since I don't think Ubisoft will have its lower end of predictions for Switch sell-through below 5 million.

Edit:
I think this is a relevant piece of information as well, a direct quote from Guillemot in the same article:
Yves Guillemot said:
"We are very happy with the sales. We feel that the machine is going to be selling in big volumes during Christmas, so we expect to continue to invest on the machine and we expect big sales of Just Dance 18 at the end of the year also, and for sure Mario and Rayman."
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Deleted member 1378

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Dat Mario brand doing work for Ubi

Also surprised at Just Dance. Guess Switch is doing very well with casual markets too? Get that Wii Sports Club remaster out Nintendo
 
Vareon

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How popular is Just Dance nowadays? It's always a great party game but I wonder how it fares in today's market.
 
RailWays

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Just Dance has traditionally done well on Nintendo platforms, correct? I'm pretty sure even during the dire days of WiiU it still sold respectably.
 
Revolsin

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Pretty reasonable to say Rabbids passed a million. Very happy for the success.
 
ghostship

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Zedark said:
It's a bit more complicated. Ubisoft apparently have an internal estimate as to how much Switch have sold through. This range determines the exact attach rate. As I said in the OP, I don't think they have a number below 5 million as the lower limit, so M+R must be at least 1 million.
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The fact that they say it varies between 10 - 20% suggests to me that they might be describing attach rates in different regions, said attach rate varying depending on how many systems have been sold in that region. If that's the case it makes deriving any numbers even more complex.
 
Pooroomoo

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"Just Dance 2018 is also doing very well thus far as the game is #1 there and is the biggest format."

I'm not sure I understand, what does that even mean? That among all platforms Switch is the best selling console for Just Dance 2018 ? (which doesn't really say anything about the game's sales)
 
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Zedark

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ghostship said:
The fact that they say it varies between 10 - 20% suggests to me that they might be describing attach rates in different regions, said attach rate varying depending on how many systems have been sold in that region. If that's the case it makes deriving any numbers even more complex.
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But they say "depending on how many consoles are out there." That would be a very weird way of saying that the attach rate is different for different regions, and I think a more logical explanation is the one I proposed.
 
sfortunato

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If Switch is able to break out among causal audience, then Just Dance can live a second life.

Just imagine people bringing Switch in offices and schools with Just Dance and additional Joy-cons. The potential is there.
 
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Zedark

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Liam Allen-Miller said:
What exactly is your reasoning for 5m so specifically? I don't think it's safe to assume 1m units at all.
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They say there's a range of 10% to 20% depending on the number of hardware units out there. I propose that Ubisoft would not estimate the Switch to have sold through less than 5 million, even as their lower end prediction. Consequently, since the lower end should correspond to the 20% attach rate (since the number of M+R units sold is a fixed number, the attach rate is highest for the lowest estimate), and that is why I assume that M+R sold more than 1 million: it seems to have done 20% of >5M, which is >1 million.
 
ghostship

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Zedark said:
But they say "depending on how many consoles are out there." That would be a very weird way of saying that the attach rate is different for different regions, and I think a more logical explanation is the one I proposed.
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Well it's a odd sentence all told, probably not helped by NE paraphrasing it. But the attach rate range is so big that the regions interpretation struck me as possible simply because if they're working off a known value for M&R's sales (such you would assume they are) then their console estimates are all over the shop. Say it's 1 million sold, for 20% you need 5 million consoles, for 10% you need twice that. They must surely have a better idea than that.
 
Pineconn

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Did my part with Mario+Rabbids. The game slightly lacks in polish in some regards, but it's still wonderful. The Grant Kirkhope OST helps push it over the edge.

Hoping Ubisoft is happy with the sales.
 
Aristos Achaion

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Revolsin said:
Pretty reasonable to say Rabbids passed a million. Very happy for the success.
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Not exactly. Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle hasn't even been released in Asian countries (January in Japan, no date announced for other countries), so if they're talking 10-20% attach rate for the regions the game has been released in, that might be less than a million
 
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Zedark

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ghostship said:
Well it's a odd sentence all told, probably not helped by NE paraphrasing it. But the attach rate range is so big that the regions interpretation struck me as possible simply because if they're working off a known value for M&R's sales (such you would assume they are) then their console estimates are all over the shop. Say it's 1 million sold, for 20% you need 5 million consoles, for 10% you need twice that. They must surely have a better idea than that.
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It could be that their estimate is from before the Nintendo financial briefing, so in that sense it's a bit more understandable. It's also possible that he is rounding a bit, and that the actual estimate is like 5M-9M around a 1 million units sales performance.
 
Cloud-Hidden

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I could have sworn I saw something on Davide Soliani's Twitter about M+R hitting the one million milestone but now I can't find it.
 
Johnny

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Mario + Rabbids will cross 2M eventually. I think we will see a price cut on it or at least a "complete" edition with the DLC for 60$.
 
Liam Allen-Miller

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Zedark said:
They say there's a range of 10% to 20% depending on the number of hardware units out there. I propose that Ubisoft would not estimate the Switch to have sold through less than 5 million, even as their lower end prediction. Consequently, since the lower end should correspond to the 20% attach rate (since the number of M+R units sold is a fixed number, the attach rate is highest for the lowest estimate), and that is why I assume that M+R sold more than 1 million: it seems to have done 20% of >5M, which is >1 million.
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But that seems like a really unsafe estimate. When talking sales, lowballing numbers is always the safe thing to do. They say between 10 and 20%, why then, would you assume 20%? If you want to guess data points and say they're going with 5m sold, it's probably more prudent to say it's safe to assume that at least 500k units have sold. The important thing is that they're happy with performance, ultimately. I don't see why potentially inflating those numbers is a safe thing to do when talking sales, which is a topic basically revolving around precision.
 
Zweizer

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I'd say what helps for Just Dance on Nintendo platforms is that the motion controllers are there right out of the gate.
 
Ausroachman

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Great news , I've yet to finish rabbids due to odyssey but it was one of the main reasons I brought the machine . Typically don't like turn based games but it was so well done here.

Can't wait to see what other games they bring to the system . Hoping for something like the division. System needs more shooters .

I can't imagine ever getting assasins ports to the system , but rabbids was so out of left field , my hopes are they have some other collabs dreamed up .
 
Zalman

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I do wonder if Ubisoft will give M-rated games a chance on Nintendo again. I think a lot of companies will be keeping an eye on Doom, Skyrim and L.A. Noire sales.
 
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Zedark

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Liam Allen-Miller said:
But that seems like a really unsafe estimate. When talking sales, lowballing numbers is always the safe thing to do. They say between 10 and 20%, why then, would you assume 20%? If you want to guess data points and say they're going with 5m sold, it's probably more prudent to say it's safe to assume that at least 500k units have sold. The important thing is that they're happy with performance, ultimately. I don't see why potentially inflating those numbers is a safe thing to do when talking sales, which is a topic basically revolving around precision.
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The quote mentions that the 10% to 20% attach rate range specifically depends on the number of hardware units sold. That's why I suggest that their lower estimate is 5 million (which I think is a very conservative lower bound), and associated with that lower estimate boundary is the 20% attach rate. The uncertainty in this matter has been transferred to the number of hardware units sold (as the quote makes clear by "depending on the number of consoles that are out there." The range of 10% to 20% (as far as that isn't rounded off) suggests a range in their prediction that has the lower bound at half the number the upper bound has. Now, as far as things that aren't taken directly from the article, I myself assume that they did not expect Switch to have sold through less than 5 million, especially since they would have known that as of June 2017 it had already shipped 4.7 million. The rest of the data I use has been derived directly from things mentioned in the article, so I don't think it is an unsafe estimate.

Platy said:
If I remember correctly M+R is not our in japan yet, right ?
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That's true.
 
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Liam Allen-Miller

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Zedark said:
[...] especially since they would have known that as of June 2017 it had already shipped 4.7 million. The rest of the data I use has been derived directly from things mentioned in the article, so I don't think it is an unsafe estimate.
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Ah, Nintendo confirmed 7.63m shipped consoles at the end of September if you want a newer data point btw. I disagree with your estimate nonetheless, but I won't hound you any more. Hope I didn't hassle you too much.
 
TheMisterManGuy

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Hopefully Just Dance's success on Switch will shut up those who think that casuals are gone and the Switch is a hardcore gamers only console. Any console that can become the #1 platform for Just Dance is obviously doing something right for the casual market.
 
DeuceGamer

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Mario+Rabbids doing good. I saw it's $29.99 at Wal Mart in Black Friday and would recommend people pick it up for that price if they haven't already.

Mario + Rabbids still hasn't launched in Japan and some smaller markets in Asia either, right?
 
Comic Obsessed

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Mario+Rabbids is one of the biggest and most pleasent surprises from 2017. It came out of nowhere and somehow became one of the best Switch titles. Glad is doing great.

Just Dance... eh, is a thing.
 
Atreides

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If I have understoond that statement right, it means that the attach rate varies between 10% and 20% depending of the region or country. This obviously doesn't include Japan because the game hasn't released there yet. Since the financial results are up to the end of september, this would be a bit less that 6 millions switches sold. So the game has sold between 600,000 and 1,200,000.
 
jariw

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The article seems to have some contradictions:

Early on in the call, Ubisoft said that Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle outperformed its own forecasts. The game is also once again confirmed to be the best-selling third-party title on Switch.
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Let's Dance 2018 can't be #1 if Mario+Rabbids is also the best-selling third party title.
 
Medalion

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I remember when Watch Dogs 2 was getting some kinda positive fan buzz
I would liked to have seen a Switch version honestly
 
Meg Cherry

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Zweizer said:
I'd say what helps for Just Dance on Nintendo platforms is that the motion controllers are there right out of the gate.
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The most recent Just Dance games allow you to use a smartphone as a controller, so it's not necessarily reliant on somebody owning motion controllers.

But I absolutely think the inclusion of two motion controllers (plus the portable aspect) makes the Switch a VERY attractive platform for Just Dance.
 
Argot

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Honestly surprised Switch was the highest selling Just Dance SKU. Thought Wii was gonna cling onto that forever.
 
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