Uhhh... I think John Bolton is trying to start his Iran war...

Oct 27, 2017
6,093
No amount of nationalism can hurt a plane flying at 50000 feet. US would be dumb to engage in urban combat. Just bomb the infrastructure and it would be enough for a civil war in Iran and another refugee crisis in Europe to start.
The bombing targets are all in population centers. Iranians are far more likely to rally around Nationalist ideas rather than fracture and begin infighting.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,093
With what is being brought in, it doesn't look like infantry is the focus. And it's mostly the burning US ships and panes part that was silly.
The Russians would jump at the opportunity to put their ground-to-air missile batteries to a real life test. Bombing doesn't do shit unless you're putting boots on the ground afterwards. I don't see Iranians tossing flowers at passing Americans when bombs start dropping on their neighborhoods.
 

DrewFu

Member
Apr 19, 2018
8,827
The Russians would jump at the opportunity to put their ground-to-air missile batteries to a real life test. Bombing doesn't do shit unless you're putting boots on the ground afterwards. I don't see Iranians tossing flowers at passing Americans when bombs start dropping on their neighborhoods.
You honestly think Russia would directly engage the US military over Iran? Seriously?
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
The bombing targets are all in population centers. Iranians are far more likely to rally around Nationalist ideas rather than fracture and begin infighting.
I am in Iran and let me tell you that most people see this on the regime rather than on the US. Bolton in his previous works when he wasn't in the adminstration has suggested to arm seperationist movements in Iran in order to disintegrate Iran. I guess this is what US is trying to do here.
 
Oct 26, 2017
10,948
None of this will happen Iranian millitary is a joke compared to US.
You really don't understand the type of destruction that would transpire if the US started a war with Iran.

https://www.vox.com/world/2018/7/23/17602480/trump-tweet-iran-threat-war

Any type of attempt to destroy their enrichment facilities will likely fail. If the US wants to prevent their nuclear program from succeeding, it's going to take a full land invasion or the literal destruction of the nation through years of prolonged bombings, which would send the entire area into chaos for the fact you're forcing Iran to become a failed state.

You're not going to be looking at an Iraq or Afghanistan war, you're going to be looking down the barrel of Vietnam 2.0 casualty wise in respect to US troops.

And that's not even talking about the economic disaster such a war would cause globally.

Yes, the US can mop the floor against basically any nation on Earth. That's never been in question, the question is always "at what cost".

You honestly think Russia would directly engage the US military over Iran? Seriously?
Direct? No

But they will be blatantly funding and arming Iran for the prolonged asymmetrical war that would be waged.
 
Oct 26, 2017
10,948
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

I don't have the confidence that you do. Would the US Navy beat them? Probably but would it be worth the cost in lives? No. Not if Iran is actually still willing to cooperate.
That challenge is nearing 20 years old and in itself the story isn't reported to full accuracy from my understanding of it.

It's pretty much not possible for the US to "lose" a direct conventional war against Iran, but the question is how much damage could Iran do to the US and simply the region/global economy at large as part of retaliation.
 

DrewFu

Member
Apr 19, 2018
8,827
Again, given what the US rolling out there (aircraft carrier, various bombers, etc.), it would seem incredibly unlikely the US is actually planning a war against Iran unless the goal is to just pancake them - which would not be the goal. It is likely just deterrence and nothing more.
 

Omegasquash

Member
Oct 31, 2017
3,325
Again, given what the US rolling out there (aircraft carrier, various bombers, etc.), it would seem incredibly unlikely the US is actually planning a war against Iran unless the goal is to just pancake them - which would not be the goal. It is likely just deterrence and nothing more.
Saber-rattling. Going to war at all, especially right now, would be beyond stupid, even for the current administration.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,093
Russia hasn't sold Iran any equipment in the last 8 years. Iran has been trying to buy S-300 for 10 years but Russia refuses. Not S-500 or S-400 but the vintage S-300.
We don't even know if the F-35 can beat the S-400, or what our older fighters can do against the S-300. In fact Russia completed their sale of S-300 to Iran in 2017. I am sure the Russians would love to find out how well their "antiquated" system works against western planes. More to the point, Russia is still arming Iran with missiles and vehicles, this isn't going to change any time soon.

If Russia directly provides them weapons to use against the US military, it would be hard to call that a proxy war.
If that were a concern, Russia would simply launder the weapons through intermediaries. Russia was directly arming Bashir, so I don't think they care about how many levels removed from the proxy fight they are
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
Again, given what the US rolling out there (aircraft carrier, various bombers, etc.), it would seem incredibly unlikely the US is actually planning a war against Iran unless the goal is to just pancake them - which would not be the goal. It is likely just deterrence and nothing more.
My fear is not US military as I believe they act somewhat responsible but the thing is basically everybody in the region hates Iran and Iranians. From ISIS, Alqaeda, Taliban ... to state actors like Saudi Arabia, Emaratis, Israel, Azerbaijan.
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
Saber-rattling. Going to war at all, especially right now, would be beyond stupid, even for the current administration.
Like I said I don't think US is interested in going to war with Iran but put just enough pressure that starts a civil war in Iran and turn it into a failed state. Like what coalition did to Libya.
 

Bryo4321

Self-requested ban
Banned
Nov 20, 2017
767
Trump doesn’t want a war though. For all the horrible policies he’s supported, he definitely looks at the world from an isolationist point of view.
 

DrewFu

Member
Apr 19, 2018
8,827
Trump doesn’t want a war though. For all the horrible policies he’s supported, he definitely looks at the world from an isolationist point of view.
Exactly. It's funny how often Trump is made into some kind of war monger. The dude is fucking awful, but he's also an isolationist. He'll talk tough, but at the end of the day, he isn't likely to actually start a major war.
 

Syagrius

Member
Apr 23, 2019
122
Trump is planning on sanctioning companies which are assisting Iran with the deal. For example Russia is sending yellowcake to Iran in exchange for their enriched uranium. This means that Iran soon will have to do produce yellowcake themselves. That would mean the Iran deal is dead.

Although I think Trump is not seeking civil war/regime change. Well we're talking about Trump so you never know, but it wouldn't make sense. With Iraq the US sought allies, both inside and outside Iraq. The US isn't doing that, an impoverished/starving population usually loses it's will to fight. They are aiming at starving all their revenue and force them to the negotiating table. That will not happen.
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
Trump is planning on sanctioning companies which are assisting Iran with the deal. For example Russia is sending yellowcake to Iran in exchange for their enriched uranium. This means that Iran soon will have to do produce yellowcake themselves. That would mean the Iran deal is dead.

Although I think Trump is not seeking civil war/regime change. Well we're talking about Trump so you never know, but it wouldn't make sense. With Iraq the US sought allies, both inside and outside Iraq. The US isn't doing that, an impoverished/starving population usually loses it's will to fight. They are aiming at starving all their revenue and force them to the negotiating table. That will not happen.
Yes it seems like Iran is just exiting the deal preemptively hours before US sanction just to save some dignity because after tomorrow's sanctions, there is no way the deal could continue.

And the starvation part is already happening. The thing is I have already accepted that I am going to starve but I'm worried that after this successful strategy US will continue to do this to everybody in the world they don't like. Starving population to get their own way like it's an 18th century empire and from what I gather, US population also like this tactic so probably hundreds of millions of other people will suffer in the coming decades.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,093
If I am a soldier in Iraq I would be fucking livid at these assholes. They've just made the soldiers' lives a lot more dangerous.

This will not end the way Trump and Bibi think it will.
 

Muad'dib

Member
Jun 7, 2018
931
US won't be entering a full blown war against Iran anytime soon, that would fuck over the ME big time, Iran is not a small time player, it is a regional power house who effectively controls Iraq, Syria and Lebanon with influence reaching Yemen and Bahrain.

Their poorest and least equipped militias in Yemen managed to stave off a billion dollar Saudi Machine and managed to strike their main airfields with home made SRBM's.

Their most elite equipped militias, Hezbollah, humiliated the IDF back in 2006 and changed the course in their favor in Syria.

I have no doubt that in the case of a full out war, Khamenei can call for all able bodied men across Shiadom for a holy defense much like Khomeini did and you'll have tens of thousands answering even more so than than they did back during the Iran-Iraq war. Some people like to paint the regime in Iran as unpopular, from first hand experience, I can certify that millions in Iran will view a US/Saudi attack as another Karbala.

The US can bomb via airstrikes and Iran can retaliate against he US fleet, problem is how willing are both sides to escalate.

As for sanctions, Iran survived worse during the Iran-Iraq war, Rouhani needs to keep the Europeans as allies but at the same time needs to send a message than Iran won't be fooled, we'll see tomorrow how it plays out.
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
US won't be entering a full blown war against Iran anytime soon, that would fuck over the ME big time, Iran is not a small time player, it is a regional power house who effectively controls Iraq, Syria and Lebanon with influence reaching Yemen and Bahrain.

Their poorest and least equipped militias in Yemen managed to stave off a billion dollar Saudi Machine and managed to strike their main airfields with home made SRBM's.

Their most elite equipped militias, Hezbollah, humiliated the IDF back in 2006 and changed the course in their favor in Syria.

I have no doubt that in the case of a full out war, Khamenei can call for all able bodied men across Shiadom for a holy defense much like Khomeini did and you'll have tens of thousands answering even more so than than they did back during the Iran-Iraq war. Some people like to paint the regime in Iran as unpopular, from first hand experience, I can certify that millions in Iran will view a US/Saudi attack as another Karbala.

The US can bomb via airstrikes and Iran can retaliate against he US fleet, problem is how willing are both sides to escalate.

As for sanctions, Iran survived worse during the Iran-Iraq war, Rouhani needs to keep the Europeans as allies but at the same time needs to send a message than Iran won't be fooled, we'll see tomorrow how it plays out.
Current economic situation in Iran is way worse than war time. Just a fling and it'll be like Venezuela situation X10 because of far less forgiving environment of Iran and all the terrorist groups in Middle East and other state actors who hate Iran.
 

DrewFu

Member
Apr 19, 2018
8,827
US won't be entering a full blown war against Iran anytime soon, that would fuck over the ME big time, Iran is not a small time player, it is a regional power house who effectively controls Iraq, Syria and Lebanon with influence reaching Yemen and Bahrain.

Their poorest and least equipped militias in Yemen managed to stave off a billion dollar Saudi Machine and managed to strike their main airfields with home made SRBM's.

Their most elite equipped militias, Hezbollah, humiliated the IDF back in 2006 and changed the course in their favor in Syria.

I have no doubt that in the case of a full out war, Khamenei can call for all able bodied men across Shiadom for a holy defense much like Khomeini did and you'll have tens of thousands answering even more so than than they did back during the Iran-Iraq war. Some people like to paint the regime in Iran as unpopular, from first hand experience, I can certify that millions in Iran will view a US/Saudi attack as another Karbala.

The US can bomb via airstrikes and Iran can retaliate against he US fleet, problem is how willing are both sides to escalate.

As for sanctions, Iran survived worse during the Iran-Iraq war, Rouhani needs to keep the Europeans as allies but at the same time needs to send a message than Iran won't be fooled, we'll see tomorrow how it plays out.
Iran is not allies with Europe. Certainly not western Europe. The closest thing they have to an "ally" is Russia.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,093
I wonder how many of the Joint Chiefs threatened to resign before standing there to be mannequins for these warmongering fucks.

You'll notice that all the political mouthpieces mumbled garbage about threats to staff and amazing sattelite data, while the military has to play the adult and clean up another White House concocted soap opera.

Our foreign affairs are run by psychotic clowns with a license to kill.
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
What Rouhani said: Iran will stop all its voluntary restriction that it was doing out of good will and build trust. If within 60 days, Europe's financial vehicle doesn't become operational Iran will probably walk out completely.
 

Typhon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,554
So they're going to stop doing extra things the deal didn't require them to do?
 
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Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
So they're going to stop doing extra things the deal didn't require them to do?
Yes. And there are also some parts of the deal which allow Iran to scale back its commitment if other signatories don't do theirs. Iran will stop selling its enriched Uranium and heavy water. If the economic pressure is not stepped back in 60 days, enrichment of higher purity will start and Arak reactor will be developed by Iran.
 

Jersey_Tom

Member
Dec 2, 2017
3,239
Seems pretty obvious Trump's going to go along with whatever Boltan wants to do in Iran under the guise of war helping his approval rating going into the election.

Hopefully there's enough career military officials who will dispute the "intelligence" Boltan is throwing around and if not outright refuse the orders of Trump at least bog it down in bureaucracy before starting another international crisis.

Remember, the President does reserve the right to deploy troops for effectively 90 days (60 days of full presence, 30-day withdrawl period) without Congressional consent. Thanks War Powers Resolution.

Unless Putin thinks the juice isn't worth the squeeze with potential armed conflict between the US and Iran, and impresses that upon Trump, Boltan will essentially become the commander-in-chief on this matter.
 

Cation

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
1,737
I think a nation that has endured many economic sanctions and multiple coup attempts is going to be significantly more difficult to wage any kind of war.
Also it just takes one downed airplane or burning ship for US public opinion to be against this war. This administration is simply too stupid to pull it off in any way they can dream
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
French have said that what Iran did is likely breach of the deal and they are still assessing the situation but they will probably start sanction snap-back process.
 

SushiReese

Member
Oct 30, 2017
243
If Trump wins re-election, I could totally see Republicans will be happy to start a war and invade Iran in Trump’s 2nd term.
 

mazi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
31,390
French have said that what Iran did is likely breach of the deal and they are still assessing the situation but they will probably start sanction snap-back process.
no they haven't, what iran has done today is still within their rights as part of the deal, and france has said they'll consider putting the sanctions back on IF iran acts outside of the deal.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-sanctions-france/france-wants-to-keep-iran-nuclear-deal-alive-warns-tehran-over-negative-actions-idUSKCN1SE0NP
 

Syagrius

Member
Apr 23, 2019
122
Yes it seems like Iran is just exiting the deal preemptively hours before US sanction just to save some dignity because after tomorrow's sanctions, there is no way the deal could continue.

And the starvation part is already happening. The thing is I have already accepted that I am going to starve but I'm worried that after this successful strategy US will continue to do this to everybody in the world they don't like. Starving population to get their own way like it's an 18th century empire and from what I gather, US population also like this tactic so probably hundreds of millions of other people will suffer in the coming decades.
You're Iranian? I really hope this scenario can be avoided. In theory Iran should have enough money to provide food security, they still shipped over 1 million BPD in the last months, and humanitairian goods are officially exempted from sanctions. Then again, both Trump and the IRI don't care at all about the Iranian population. I hope the rest of the world learned from the worst-case scenario of the Iraqi sanctions and assist with food and medicine.
 

Alzarius23

Member
Oct 30, 2017
536
no they haven't, what iran has done today is still within their rights as part of the deal, and france has said they'll consider putting the sanctions back on IF iran acts outside of the deal.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-sanctions-france/france-wants-to-keep-iran-nuclear-deal-alive-warns-tehran-over-negative-actions-idUSKCN1SE0NP
I think Iran is already outside of the deal's limits for amount enriched Uranium but the deal allows for 60 days of possession of extra Uranium before it's considered a breach.
 

Shambalakan

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
1,591
It's strange when they talk about deal. What deal exactly?
Iran can't sell oil. Can't buy airplane even from Airbus. Can't even buy cars like Peugeot and Renault from France! lol
JCPOA is a joke right now and everyone knows it. They just talk about it for making Trump back to it, but he won't back.