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Uhhh... I think John Bolton is trying to start his Iran war...

Nov 3, 2017
1,035
Yes, despite the parallels, it is quite a different situation politically. Add to that, Iran 2019 is not Iraq 2003. A conflict with Iran would not be like the Iraq War. It would be worse.
A fundamental aspect of the Iraq war is that American losses happened in drips over a decade. 5,000 dead soldiers over 10 years is the proverbial boiling frog. We didn't notice how bad it was until the body count was already enormous.

Iran will be killing hundreds of American soldiers in the opening hours of a shooting war. They have no chance of winning, but they are not going to be rolled like the Iraqis. US boats will sink. US aircraft will be shot down. Enemy soldiers will be highly disciplined and well equipped. It's going to be a slog with an enormous body count, and the idea of POTUS Donald Trump addressing the media after a hundred sailors drown in the wreckage of an amphibious assault ship is just ridiculous.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,637
Michigan
I still can't believe it might be Trump of all people who saves us from Bolton's war.

WaPo: Trump, frustrated by advisers, is not convinced the time is right to attack Iran

The Trump administration has been on high alert in response to what military and intelligence officials have deemed specific and credible threats from Iran against U.S. personnel in the Middle East.

But President Trump is frustrated with some of his top advisers, who he thinks could rush the United States into a military confrontation with Iran and shatter his long-standing pledge to withdraw from costly foreign wars, according to several U.S. officials. Trump prefers a diplomatic approach to resolving tensions and wants to speak directly with Iran’s leaders.

Disagreements over assessing and responding to the recent intelligence — which includes a directive from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that some American officials interpret as a threat to U.S. personnel in the Middle East — are also fraying alliances with foreign allies, according to multiple officials in the United States and Europe.

Trump grew angry last week and over the weekend about what he sees as warlike planning that is getting ahead of his own thinking, said a senior administration official with knowledge of conversations Trump had regarding national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

“They are getting way out ahead of themselves, and Trump is annoyed,” the official said. “There was a scramble for Bolton and Pompeo and others to get on the same page.”

If there's one thing that's been consistent about him, it's keeping campaign promises, no matter how asinine and stupid. It looks like that might actually save us from humiliation this one time.
 
Oct 25, 2017
895
The entire country is mountainous and is like five times the size of iraq and it has like 2.5x the population of Iraq circa 2003. Occupying any part of iran would be totally insane
They won't occupy shit for long if anything ever happened. We'd just destabilize the region and pull out radicalizing more terrorists. Small price to pay as long as we can sell more weapons to our allies in the region.
 
Oct 28, 2017
229
So the Swiss president is on a short notice visit at the white house today.
Officially it's about a free trade agreement, but the timing is a bit suspicious. As the US does not have official diplomatic relation with Iran the Swiss Embassy has functioned as a channel in the last few decades (as they did for Cuba and recently started doing for Venezuela).

On one hand I hope we can help defusing the situation, on the other hand I don't want to see us dragged into this...
 
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of ordering Yemen rebel pipeline attack
The entire country is mountainous and is like five times the size of iraq and it has like 2.5x the population of Iraq circa 2003. Occupying any part of iran would be totally insane
They also wouldn't need to just occupy parts of Iran, but also Syria and Iraq. Iran has active militias in both countries and the US is also active there, those Iranian militias would no doubt target those US forces. Which brings me to another point: a US-Iran war would drag in virtually the entire Middle-East. For the reason listed above there's a good chance Syria and Iraq would at least partially be dragged in, Hezbollah could start actively attacking Israel, Saudi Arabia would probably be dragged in simply because they're the main US ally after Israel in the region while also just being extremely anti-Iran by themselves. Yemen would probably escalate beyond the current situation due to Saudi and Iranian involvement there as well. A war wouldn't be a US-Iranian war, it would be a big regional war.
 
Oct 27, 2017
207
It is really incumbent on every American to make sure this does not happen. I’m talking extremely disruptive protests or hell, storming the goddamn White House. If that sounds laughable and ridiculous you gotta ask yourself how much brown lives are really worth because war with Iran would cause massive amounts of death and destabilize the region for decades.

Fuck this makes me angry. I can’t express the pure hatred I feel for every person architecting this, Bolton especially.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,192
If there's one thing that's been consistent about him, it's keeping campaign promises, no matter how asinine and stupid. It looks like that might actually save us from humiliation this one time.
Trump has repeatedly broken campaign promises. Be it the wall, healthcare, lgbt rights - he has routinely gone back one what he has said he would do in the campaign. Don’t think that offers any protection at all.
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,211
Not to mention they have a large and professional standing army
Not saying it would matter or should happen but that isn't really a definitive...

That is exactly how Iraq was described before Desert Storm.
Iraq had the 4th largest military in the world at the time and that they were well equipped, trained and actually had experience.
 
Oct 31, 2017
2,389
Pro tip, don't decapitate Genghis Khan's emissaries.
There should be a book of these for the historically minded warlord

Don't fuck with the mongols.
Don't try a land invasion of Russian in the winter.
Stay the fuck out of Afghanistan, full stop.
etc, etc etc

Anyway, on topic John Bolton is a fucking Nazi and I can only hope the war that is so clearly being planned is somehow avoided.
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,518
I don't believe for a second Trump gives a shit about whether or not it's right to attack another country, I think he cares about optics and not looking like a war hawk. I'd much sooner believe he's positioning himself to say "oh, I don't want to do this terrible thing, but they've forced my hand..."
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,700
John Bolton is literally one of the vilest immoral pieces of shit living on this planet(followed by Pompeo). He's a known draft dodger but is probably giddy at the thought of sending thousands of American soldiers to their deaths to satisfy his shitty war mongering aspirations.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,044
John Bolton is literally one of the vilest immoral pieces of shit living on this planet(followed by Pompeo). He's a known draft dodger but is probably giddy at the thought of sending thousands of American soldiers to their deaths to satisfy his shitty war mongering aspirations.
Sounds like most hawks in general tbh. I think it’s hard to be extremely hawkish if you’ve actually served and seen the price
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,793
Does Trump's base want a war with Iran? I'm sure they love the thought of brown people "getting some", but I don't know if they can stomach the price.
There's an irreconcilable tension between the alt right's Islamophobia and anti-Semitism where they want to kill as many Muims as possible but also don't want to support wars that they see as part of Israeli control over American foreign policy.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,408
Massachusetts
I don't think there's the popular will behind this. In 2003 something like 70% of people believed that Saddam was involved in 9/11, and Bush had an approval rating in the 60-70% range. Our last war, pre-Afghanistan, was the first Gulf War, which was a breeze, along with a few minor interventions here and there.

Now we have an unpopular President who is clearly sabotaging relations after almost two decades of protracted fighting.

My fear is that someone is going to pull the trigger, and despite outrage and objection for the first few weeks, eventually the US will settle into a "can't unring that bell" and "well we had to deal with them sometime" mentality and lapse into another decade of chaos and violence and regime change.
 

shinobi602

Newman
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
1,566
False flag operation or any escalation of a small tension that went too far followed by a subsequent pointing of fingers at the 'evil Iranians' is all it'd take to rally a mostly naive populace behind you. It's not too difficult. Netanyahu and the Saudis won't let this opportunity and timeframe go to waste, it's obvious. Withdrawing from the nuclear deal was already the first step.
 
Dec 3, 2018
1,806
The difference between Iraq and Iran outside of the obvious nature of not going to any kind of unjust war is that Iran is fond of their culture, their leadership overall and their history. They are very much like the American versions of a Muslim country. The green revolution folks will be on the front lines defending Iran in war against US , the same folks US uses as an excuse to talk about human rights

This will be worse than Vietnam for US because there are no friends or allies who want to be saved from US, they want to do the saving themselves
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,445
London
The difference between Iraq and Iran outside of the obvious nature of not going to any kind of unjust war is that Iran is fond of their culture, their leadership overall and their history. They are very much like the American versions of a Muslim country. The green revolution folks will be on the front lines defending Iran in war against US , the same folks US uses as an excuse to talk about human rights

This will be worse than Vietnam for US because there are no friends or allies who want to be saved from US, they want to do the saving themselves
I thought the young people there pretty much mostly hate their government. I remember seeing a thread on here with women protesting against the strict religious laws of the country, in particular mandatory hijab. The sentiment of 'young people of Iran are very much against the government' was one I heard often.

Iran's theocracy is very, very shit and sooner it collapses and is replaced by secularism the better but USA should stay the fuck out. US intervention in the region has never worked. If you make the war hawks go pick up a rifle and face death in their own stupid war then they'd back out real fast. Because a lot of people on both sides of such a war will die. It would be a disaster.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,780
This will be worse than Vietnam for US because there are no friends or allies who want to be saved from US, they want to do the saving themselves
Saudi Arabia and Israel want Iran war. France and UK forced Obama to go into Libya so never underestimate the desire of certain countries for war.

Iranian people do not like the mullahs that are in power right now but a war will be terrible for them.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,823
I thought the young people there pretty much mostly hate their government. I remember seeing a thread on here with women protesting against the strict religious laws of the country, in particular mandatory hijab. The sentiment of 'young people of Iran are very much against the government' was one I heard often.

Iran's theocracy is very, very shit and sooner it collapses and is replaced by secularism the better but USA should stay the fuck out. US intervention in the region has never worked. If you make the war hawks go pick up a rifle and face death in their own stupid war then they'd back out real fast. Because a lot of people on both sides of such a war will die. It would be a disaster.
My impression is that a lot hate their leadership (whether it's most, I have no idea), but would absolutely be against any foreign "liberation". There were interviews from a news segment I remember watching, speaking to some of the opposition there. Basically, they'd have no problem defending their country from any invasionary force, regardless of their opinions of the oppresive Islamists in charge.
 
Apr 11, 2018
5
My impression is that a lot hate their leadership (whether it's most, I have no idea), but would absolutely be against any foreign "liberation". There were interviews from a news segment I remember watching, speaking to some of the opposition there. Basically, they'd have no problem defending their country from any invasionary force, regardless of their opinions of the oppresive Islamists in charge.
Basically this.

Our 40 or so years of embargoes, sanctions, and threats of regime change have created a bunker mentality in the country, and they didn't particularly like it the last time the US fucked around in Iran. They dislike the IR, but they fear what a US led invasion or regime change would mean for the country. They fear Iran being balkanized, or fear being ruled by a western funded dictator.

Keep in mind, too, that the IR gains its legitimacy by saying the US is bad; that we are a destabilizing presence in the ME, that we seek only to control the oil for the continued stability of the rest of the world at the cost of the people living there, and that we cannot be trusted. And keep in mind that every one of Trump's actions in the last two years has supported these ideas.
 
Apr 19, 2018
3,697
I still can't believe it might be Trump of all people who saves us from Bolton's war.

WaPo: Trump, frustrated by advisers, is not convinced the time is right to attack Iran


If there's one thing that's been consistent about him, it's keeping campaign promises, no matter how asinine and stupid. It looks like that might actually save us from humiliation this one time.
It shouldn't surprise anyone. Trump sucks, but he's also an isolationist - which also sucks, but it makes him extremely unlikely to start a war. I don't get why so many make Trump out to be some kind of war hawk.

And rumors have been swirling for a while that Trump is getting fed up with Bolton.
 
Oct 25, 2017
26,238
It shouldn't surprise anyone. Trump sucks, but he's also an isolationist - which also sucks, but it makes him extremely unlikely to start a war. I don't get why so many make Trump out to be some kind of war hawk.

And rumors have been swirling for a while that Trump is getting fed up with Bolton.
Maybe it's because he's gone back on a variety of promises he's made since being elected and is notorious for fucking up what should be an easy win. He might be an isolationist but he's an egomaniacal narcissist who craves constant praise. If he thinks a war will be a boon to his rabid fanbase that's all it'll take.
 
It shouldn't surprise anyone. Trump sucks, but he's also an isolationist - which also sucks, but it makes him extremely unlikely to start a war. I don't get why so many make Trump out to be some kind of war hawk.

And rumors have been swirling for a while that Trump is getting fed up with Bolton.
Trump would do literally anything if he thought he'd profit from it. He would absolutely start a war if he thought it would help him personally.

That and he's incredibly stupid so it's probably not that hard to trick him in to thinking war would be a good idea.
 
Jun 28, 2018
1,443
It shouldn't surprise anyone. Trump sucks, but he's also an isolationist - which also sucks, but it makes him extremely unlikely to start a war. I don't get why so many make Trump out to be some kind of war hawk.

And rumors have been swirling for a while that Trump is getting fed up with Bolton.
While I hope you're right on that, there are a number of instances that have already poked holes in the "Trump the dove" narrative that was pushed pre-election. Most notably the Yemen veto. And the fact that he chose Bolton as his National Security Adviser (anyone with two brain cells to rub together could tell Trump what Bolton's stance on Iran was). And when it's come to other Trump promises/beliefs, let's just say he's been ideologically fluid.

From the link:
But President Trump is frustrated with some of his top advisers, who he thinks could rush the United States into a military confrontation with Iran and shatter his long-standing pledge to withdraw from costly foreign wars, according to several U.S. officials. Trump prefers a diplomatic approach to resolving tensions and wants to speak directly with Iran’s leaders.
I hope this isn't just team Trump blowing smoke. I hope his ego, his undying baseless belief in his negotiating prowess, actually works out for us in this case. But I have exactly zero trust in Trump to handle the situation appropriately if things are put in motion to draw us into armed conflict.