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Jom

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,490
Since December it's been $1 a month for non active members. Right before the $2 for 2 month deal it was $1 for 1 month and the sale would last until August.
Oh what's considered a non-active member? Just anyone who's not currently subbbing? I had like a 9 month subscription really early on from the free Tmobile Tuesday subs stacked together.
 

Jenea

Banned
Mar 14, 2018
1,568
CD3 had all the receipts to become a bomba, but c'mon , 4k (not the resolution) is still a very low number, especially in the xbox 2nd strongest market. What other 1st party games had the same mediocre results ?
 

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,229
Xbox GP numbers will be interesting.

I think the Digital Split is 70:30 or somewhere along these lines for 3 reasons : Xbox GP, Play Anywhere and a freaking 60$ price point.

Assuming that and with 1 week of tracking, we are looking at approximately 10,000 ( 4,000 in 2 days) physical copies, with a 70% Digital split, its approximately 35,000 copies in 1 week ( Physical + Digital). Thats only in the UK.

Assuming the share of US is 60% and the digital split is similar, we are looking at 168,000 copies in its first week ( Out of 41 Mill consoles sold and UK selling close to 5 million would put the share of UK at 12.5%), the rest of Europe and world included will be 77,000.

So, adding them all up would give us approximately 280,000 units in the first week which isn't terrible but disappointing. If the game is frontloaded, we are looking at a lifetime number of around 1 million, but depends on post launch updates & MP improvements.

(Lot of assumptions though ;) )
Raijinto
 

spartan112g

Banned
May 5, 2018
813
Congrats Metro.
Isn't there bit truth to that?
I wish there wasn't, but I've seen some of the anime games people buy and that I had gotten when I was a kid where you open it, play it for a bit, and then just get sad.
Well, Jump Force is a licensed game with a lot of crossover appeal and people were going to buy it on that premise regardless. Also, Jump Ultimate Stars was never localized.
Jump Ultimate Stars not getting localized is still a crime. One of the best games on DS.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I would probably say the first week, but since the game is getting mixed/negative reviews, expect the drop off sooner than a week which I did consider ( 4000 in the first 2 days...6000 in the next 5 days)
That's not really how games sell. A 50% increase from the first tracked week to the second is incredibly rare (in fact, I can't recall a single instance of that happening). Also considering the terrible word of mouth, it's more likely to drop 50%or more in its second week, meaning 2k or fewer units sold in the period from last Sunday to next saturday.
 

nib95

Contains No Misinformation on Philly Cheesesteaks
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,498
Xbox GP numbers will be interesting.

I think the Digital Split is 70:30 or somewhere along these lines for 3 reasons : Xbox GP, Play Anywhere and a freaking 60$ price point.

Assuming that and with 1 week of tracking, we are looking at approximately 10,000 ( 4,000 in 2 days) physical copies, with a 70% Digital split, its approximately 35,000 copies in 1 week ( Physical + Digital). Thats only in the UK.

Assuming the share of US is 60% and the digital split is similar, we are looking at 168,000 copies in its first week ( Out of 41 Mill consoles sold and UK selling close to 5 million would put the share of UK at 12.5%), the rest of Europe and world included will be 77,000.

So, adding them all up would give us approximately 280,000 units in the first week which isn't terrible but disappointing. If the game is frontloaded, we are looking at a lifetime number of around 1 million, but depends on post launch updates & MP improvements.

(Lot of assumptions though ;) )

XGP numbers are not included in digital split and nor should they be given the humongous revenue difference and the possibility that GP revenue could also theoretically be split among so many other titles, for first party anyway, which might work different to how third party publishers or independent studios GP fees were arranged. Take GP out of that equation and there's no way the digital split is 70%. From everything we've read and data we have, UK digital split is on average 25%, so even if it were much higher than that, 70% seems completely unlikely.

Your figure for second week of tracked sales also seems overly generous and highly unlikely. I'm not sure I can ever even recall an example of 50% second week growth.

Then we have the fact that the game was developed by hundreds of devs, multiple studios, had lots of R&D and a troublesome development process over 5 years, and you're looking at an expensive AAA title, notably for an exclusive, that would need to likely sell well over a million just to break even. Based on the metrics we know thus far (UK sales, Twitch numbers, reviews or reception, social media reaction etc), it definitely seems like it'll end up being a fairly sizeable flop.
 
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IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
23,943
I really do wonder how expensive CD3's development was, it went through what? 4 or 5 studios? Probably 6+ years of active development, which seemed to hit development hell early.
 

StiLteD

Member
Nov 11, 2017
810
London
Lol when they promised it would 4K60, didn't realize they were talking about opening sales and the metacritic score :-P
 
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sabrina

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
5,174
newport beach, CA
Lol when they promised it would 4K60, didn't realize they were talking about opening sales and the metacritic score :-P
200.gif
 

Teddy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,288
Isn't like majority of all sales on launch week?
Like almost 80% of their lifetime right?

I think I remember the stats were something like:

30% of lifetime sales Day One.
30% of lifetime sales Week One (excluding Day One).
30% of lifetime sales Month One (excluding Day One and Week One).
10% rest of life.
 

Good4Squat

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
3,148
Well, why would you buy Crackdown 3? It is so short and slight, that it makes much more sense as a gamepass game.
 

Minilla

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,514
Tokyo
It means, why buy Crackdown 3 for 60 dollars, when it can be beaten in 1 or 2 sittings and has little replay value, when you can just play it on gamepass for a much cheaper price? What is so hard to understand about that?

Yeah, your take is not a good outlook for subcription services really. God knows how much this game cost to make as well.
 

Good4Squat

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
3,148
Yeah, your take is not a good outlook for subcription services really. God knows how much this game cost to make as well.
Well sure, but that it took this long to make something so slight, shows that something has clearly gone wrong during development. Ideally, games that take 5 years or so to make, should be substantial enough to be worth buying at full price.
 

Fliesen

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,251
FarCry 5 was the first one since FC3 that i didn't platinum; hell, i didn't even finish it. I did 100% FC3, FC4, FC Blood Dragon and FC Primal.

FarCry - New Dawn is likely going to be the first one i won't even buy :/

And i don't think it's Ubisoft fatigue. I just really didn't like anything they added / removed when making FarCry 5.
Also, the setting was shit.
 

Joeyro

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,757
What does this even mean?

A game pass game? Sub par quality?
Pretty much like a Netflix movie, it feels okay to watch mediocre movies when you are already subscribed to a service with a large catalogue of content that you might be interested in. To be fair CD3 had a long development so it might be disappointing that we got Bright instead of Roma.

Get it? because Bright was still fun.

(I did not play CD3)
 

OG_Thrills

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,655
Pretty much like a Netflix movie, it feels okay to watch mediocre movies when you are already subscribed to a service with a large catalogue of content that you might be interested in. To be fair CD3 had a long development so it might be disappointing that we got Bright instead of Roma.

Get it? because Bright was still fun.

(I did not play CD3)

But Netflix has some incredible Netflix original movies?
 

Minilla

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,514
Tokyo
Pretty much like a Netflix movie, it feels okay to watch mediocre movies when you are already subscribed to a service with a large catalogue of content that you might be interested in. To be fair CD3 had a long development so it might be disappointing that we got Bright instead of Roma.

Get it? because Bright was still fun.

(I did not play CD3)

This whole Netflix thing is BS. Even MS said it won't happen, as every one will have their own service
 

Visanideth

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
4,771
Thats brutal.
At least Terry Crews got paid....

Terry deserved better. The professionality he's shown on social media when he approached the gaming world is something absolutely praiseworthy. Most celebrities would have handwaved their role in a videogame and pretended it never happened, while he engaged with fans and kept beating the drums on social medias. Major props to him.
 
Oct 30, 2017
8,967
It's hilarious how no one knows how much money games make on Game Pass but the narrative for any MS game that doesn't sell well will be that Game Pass prevents it from being a bomba.

They really did quite the PR spinnage with that service.
 

Pillock

User Requested Ban
Banned
Dec 29, 2017
1,341
User Warned: trolling
Can we just move on from Crapdown now. It's a turd, let it flush away and forget about it. The smell might linger for a few weeks but does mean it need discussing.