• Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

gerg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,346
Didn't the latest FT graph have us ahead of Italy at this point on the curve? If anyone could post the latest version that would be good.

Also, day by day infection/death rates are noisy. It's like looking at a slow bittorrent download. As long as the daily numbers are increasing, it's still really bad I think.

Sorry, you're right. We are ahead of where Italy was at the same time, but our number of deaths is growing more slowly than Italy's was. IF this holds, the streams should cross soon.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,797
What are the chances of Boris implementing a lockdown, but not in front of a live studio audience (could the 6pm "not press conference" be lockdown related). ?

That's what I'm anticipating.

Although I'll add that I'm purely going off of my gut feeling.

I was mostly joking, but I do think we need a public face, speaking to people live, every night at teatime, telling them what they need to do the following day. The old war broadcasts might have seemed impossibly quaint a little while ago, but there's wisdom in the approach.

And it needs to be someone from within government who's well-liked. And... there's not a lot of choice in that regard.

Absolutely agree. Strangely, I've found myself eagerly awaiting the daily conferences - provides a bit of 'comfort' in an odd way.

Not sure why!
 

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 31, 2018
2,772
The death rate is positive (feels weird saying that) that makes us have a clear difference from Italy, I expect because they have a huge older generation
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
Oh, OK. FT was paywalling for me yesterday, but now it seems all COVID stories are open. Here's the graph:

GdQ3r81.png


Sorry, you're right. We are ahead of where Italy was at the same time, but our number of deaths is growing more slowly than Italy's was. IF this holds, the streams should cross soon.
Well, we're a bit over 33% daily increase in deaths, so most likely any slowdown in the increase in death rate is just regression to the mean 😿
 

gerg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,346
Oh, OK. FT was paywalling for me yesterday, but now it seems all COVID stories are open. Here's the graph:

GdQ3r81.png



Well, we're a bit over 33% daily increase in deaths, so most likely any slowdown in the increase in death rate is just regression to the mean 😿

That's as an average so far, but for the last few days we've been way below that.

In any case, I don't understand why Italy has become such a strong point of comparison, when the situation in Spain seems much worse!
 

Kromeo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
17,872
Italy has a culture of multiple generations living together as well which won't have helped
 

Garfield

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 31, 2018
2,772
I mean, will be no point for a lockdown as everywhere is shutting, there is nothing to do now
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
That's as an average so far, but for the last few days we've been way below that.

In any case, I don't understand why Italy has become such a strong point of comparison, when the situation in Spain seems much worse!
I think it was because a few days ago, we were trending close to Italy. So, that's the most obvious comparison as to where we might be heading.

Who knows though: maybe most people are listening and we end up flattening the curve? Hopefully the trend continues to decrease.
 
Jburnmurdoch deaths over time graph, updated daily

Hazzuh

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,166

Kodama4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,933
Oh, OK. FT was paywalling for me yesterday, but now it seems all COVID stories are open. Here's the graph:

GdQ3r81.png



Well, we're a bit over 33% daily increase in deaths, so most likely any slowdown in the increase in death rate is just regression to the mean 😿

I don't think we should use China's numbers, we have no way of knowing how accurate they are, especially near the start of the epidemic in China, when they were trying to hide everything.
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
I don't think we should use China's numbers, we have no way of knowing how accurate they are, especially near the start of the epidemic in China, when they were trying to hide everything.
There's no evidence that China hid deaths at the start. I think those claims should be treated as a conspiracy theory quite frankly. China has a lot of experience dealing with public health emergencies such as SARS. They also built two hospitals in two weeks to deal with the epidemic. It's not that surprising that they have a lower mortality rate.

fyi the guy who makes the graph posts it on twitter every day: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch
Ty. I've followed him!
 

Kodama4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,933
There's no evidence that China hid deaths at the start. I think those claims should be treated as a conspiracy theory quite frankly. China has a lot of experience dealing with public health emergencies such as SARS. They also built two hospitals in two weeks to deal with the epidemic. It's not that surprising that they have a lower mortality rate.

Ok, so what about Japan then?
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
Ok, so what about Japan then?
Japan also has experience dealing with SARS. There's also a culture of wearing face masks in SEA countries. Basically, countries in SEA were already prepared for this kind of emergency because it had already happened to them before. This virus is unique because it's more fatal and has managed to spread globally.
 

Footos22

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,776
I was given a letter today from a gas company in the south west saying the country could be going into lockdown tonight and for me to hold onto the attached letter when out and about as it recognises me as a key worker to the gas industry if I get stopped. Might just be precautionary but wouldn't just wave it off.
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
I was given a letter today from a gas company in the south west saying the country could be going into lockdown tonight and for me to hold onto the attached letter when out and about as it recognises me as a key worker to the gas industry if I get stopped. Might just be precautionary but wouldn't just wave it off.
Why would they give you a letter for that purpose when you have staff ID?
 

Kodama4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,933
I was given a letter today from a gas company in the south west saying the country could be going into lockdown tonight and for me to hold onto the attached letter when out and about as it recognises me as a key worker to the gas industry if I get stopped. Might just be precautionary but wouldn't just wave it off.

Do you have proof of the letter? otherwise this sort of post is scaremongering..
 

Azurik

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Nov 5, 2017
2,441
Reliable news are telling me lockdown is happening at 8pm tonight
 

Redcrayon

Patient hunter
On Break
Oct 27, 2017
12,713
UK
Coronavirus bill powers will be reviewed every six months (after concerns from both sides of the house), rather than the 'lasts for 2 years, report every 2 months' in the initial document. I'm glad of this, it's something I wanted to see discussed today (on top of an immediate lockdown).

www.theguardian.com

Emergency coronavirus legislation passed by MPs without opposition

No 10 says sweeping powers will be subject to renewal ever six months amid Commons pressure
 

Footos22

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,776
Do you have proof of the letter? otherwise this sort of post is scaremongering..
Yeah I'd rather not take a photo of a letter that can be traced back to the company I work for but I don't condone scaremogering of any kind I'm not about that shit. Like I said maybe just precautionary in case the worst happens. Our boss was apparently informed by our local Tory mp
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,629
The lockdown won't happen until the bill passes. Maybe a heavier warning will happen today but I'd be surprised at a full one tonight.
 

Hystzen

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,401
Manchester UK
HMRC is handling wages it going be based off past 4 or 8 weeks then averaged out. I'm self employed under the Paye umbrella and just been informed about it.
 

Deleted member 16516

User requested account closure
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,427

Kodama4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,933
Government - Everyone abroad, Come back home now! ( but we are not going to check any of you when you arrive back)

god damn useless...