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Deleted member 7051

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,254
Hardly saw anyone out today. Buses were totally empty, the local Co-op has instituted a five person only limit and there weren't even any queues outside. Still plenty of cars coming and going but without them it'd feel like a ghost town.
 

Nooblet

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,624
While Wuhan lockdown would be like 10 weeks long when it ends, I donno if other countries can do it in that amount of time because China's lockdown is stricter than the ones in other countries with more severe measures. Plus if UK goes a bit easy in 3-6 weeks time then it's possible for it to creep back up again.

If a vaccine is discovered by June, wonder if that would help with the commotion even if trials, manufacturing and distribution means it won't actually be available until later this year/early next year?
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,038
I have an Ocado delivery booked for this Sunday. The website will only let me edit my order and I can't make a new order for a later date. It's unclear if this is the same for everyone or are they limiting it so that if you have an order already you can't make a new order. Does anyone know?

was same for us.
 

Shibata100

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,645
First day WFH today and there is some tasks I just cannot do here so I have to go into the office least once per week which I don't mind at all. Nice to have a break from being indoors all the time.
 

Dyno

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,256
Definitely seeing a change in town. Hazard tape in and out of stores to mark safe distance for queues. Capacity limits in the local Boots. Watched some old people having a chat on the benches get told to go home by police. Town market will be open tomorrow though cause why not I guess
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,068
Definitely seeing a change in town. Hazard tape in and out of stores to mark safe distance for queues. Capacity limits in the local Boots. Watched some old people having a chat on the benches get told to go home by police. Town market will be open tomorrow though cause why not I guess

Huh, wonder what it will be like after a week then.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
I don't understand your point and I'm talking about where these countries were in the same amount of days compared to the UK, which is what your message said, not this graph particularly.

UK : 10 -> 422 from 12/03 to 24/03
Italy : 10 -> 366 from 25/02 to 08/03
France : 9 -> 264 from 06/03 to 18/03

The trajectory could change obviously but I wouldn't say you're at the same amount of deaths as France, even roughly.
I'm talking about day on day percentage increase and the fact france increased rather substantially day on on day in that period. They're not matching exactly on deaths but taken as a whole they're in a similar ball park, for example between march 18 -19 there were 108 deaths.
 
Volunteer for the NHS! 250k people needed

Noodle

Banned
Aug 22, 2018
3,427
https://www.goodsamapp.org/NHS

  • Community Response volunteer: This role involves collecting shopping, medication or other essential supplies for someone who is self-isolating, and delivering these supplies to their home.
  • Patient Transport volunteer: This role supports the NHS by providing transport to patients who are medically fit for discharge, and ensuring that they are settled safely back in to their home.
  • NHS Transport volunteer: This role involves transporting equipment, supplies and/or medication between NHS services and sites, it may also involve assisting pharmacies with medication delivery.
  • Check-in and Chat volunteer: This role provides short-term telephone support to individuals who are at risk of loneliness as a consequence of self-isolation.

NHS requesting 250,000 volunteers to help out. Basically if you have a car and free time you'd be of use.
 

BluWacky

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
342
I got a call yesterday evening saying my laptop was ready to pick up from repair and that I should go in and get it today.

Then the government closed all electronics stores.

I'm a teacher and thus a key worker so kind-of could do with my laptop; luckily we were already on holiday (weird term dates) but I'm not really sure what my options are with this. I have enough other tech that I will be able to still work, but I don't much fancy teaching from the couch at my TV, or swearing at my iPad for not being able to do anything I need it to. I've been in touch with the repair shop (an Apple premium reseller) who said they were "consulting with company directors" - I'm hopeful that something can be arranged but somewhat doubtful.

I know this is ridiculously minor in the grand scheme of a pandemic, but having worked so hard to properly social distance in the prior days and getting very frustrated with people not doing so, I am annoyed that the behaviour of the great British public over the weekend in particular has shafted me somewhat. I'd rather not have to wait three weeks to pick it up - IF the government even relaxes restrictions then, which I think is very unlikely.

Bugger it!
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
I'm talking about day on day percentage increase and the fact france increased rather substantially day on on day in that period. They're not matching exactly on deaths but taken as a whole they're in a similar ball park, for example between march 18 -19 there were 108 deaths.
Individual days are too noisy to consider. Like, you can know that a certain number of people will die over a certain period of days, but it's basically random which exact day people die. It's only worthwhile looking at the overall trend over several days - that shows the true picture.
 

Dyno

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,256
Huh, wonder what it will be like after a week then.
Well, I'm thinking a smallish rural town like this may be able to make this work seeing today. Right now its empty enough for the police to easily spot anything that may raise an eyebrow. That market though, I wouldnt be surprised to see the police break it up tomorrow. If they don't, I think were going to see the attitude towards the lockdown fall apart by the weekend.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Individual days are too noisy to consider. Like, you can know that a certain number of people will die over a certain period of days, but it's basically random which exact day people die. It's only worthwhile looking at the overall trend over several days - that shows the true picture.
They're not very noisy in the UK's case which is why I said the next few days are key. France is noisy yes but I'm not predicting france I'm predicting uK's trend based on the data we have on France italy and China.
 

EdibleKnife

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,723
Thought this might be a good video to send out to any of your friends or family who aren't taking this seriously:
 

Dalek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,909
I had to stop work today because I'm freaking out about my friend. They are testing his husband and putting him in quarantine too. The sad thing is they are keeping them separated - so if he dies, his husband won't even be there with him. This is just heart wrenching.

It really pisses me off even further to think of the people strutting around not taking this seriously when now my friend is going to die.

The other scary thing is that his husband works in the same office as my wife-but I'm fairly certain that they don't work in close proximity.
 

Yankee Ruin X

Member
Oct 31, 2017
2,684
Seems the Covid Test Center the government is building in one of our car parks is going to be up and running by the end of the week so that's good.
 

Iron Mike

Member
Sep 28, 2019
229
I had to stop work today because I'm freaking out about my friend. They are testing his husband and putting him in quarantine too. The sad thing is they are keeping them separated - so if he dies, his husband won't even be there with him. This is just heart wrenching.

It really pisses me off even further to think of the people strutting around not taking this seriously when now my friend is going to die.

The other scary thing is that his husband works in the same office as my wife-but I'm fairly certain that they don't work in close proximity.
Sorry to hear about your friend. Is there any reason in particular that you think your friend is going to die?
 

Dalek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,909
Sorry to hear about your friend. Is there any reason in particular that you think your friend is going to die?

The doctor told his husband that his chances don't look good. He's been hospitalized since Friday and his breathing degraded to a point when're he was placed on a ventilator yesterday.
 

Dyno

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,256
I had to stop work today because I'm freaking out about my friend. They are testing his husband and putting him in quarantine too. The sad thing is they are keeping them separated - so if he dies, his husband won't even be there with him. This is just heart wrenching.

It really pisses me off even further to think of the people strutting around not taking this seriously when now my friend is going to die.

The other scary thing is that his husband works in the same office as my wife-but I'm fairly certain that they don't work in close proximity.
I mean this in a positive and not condescending way though it may not seem that way but, you dont know that. There's always hope and at least they're more likely to have the capacity to look after him now than they would in say a week or two.
 

Deleted member 18857

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,083
Lots of people in Richmond park, but everyone seemed to be respecting social distance, no big groups of people either.
I thought they closed it? Is it only for cars?
It's better than nothing, but also, not enough?

The doctor told his husband that his chances don't look good. He's been hospitalized since Friday and his breathing degraded to a point when're he was placed on a ventilator yesterday.
Shit, that's horrible. My heart goes to you and him. Hopefully he'll recover (that's what ventilators are for, in the end!)
 

rubbishmonkey

Member
Oct 27, 2017
797
That image is great though - presumably the police dispersed everyone and kicked the BBQ over.

(I hope so)

They did...
In the end our officers felt they needed to end the gathering by tipping over the BBQ and insisting the group dispersed to their homes

Unbelievable: our officers break up 20-strong BBQ defying lockdown orders | News | West Midlands Police

Despite the government’s clear social distancing instruction last night our officers today found a group of 20 people ignoring the lockdown and tucking into a BBQ. Neighbourhood officers were on patrol in Foleshill Road, Coventry, just after 2pm when they smelt food cooking and smoke rising...
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
They're not very noisy in the UK's case which is why I said the next few days are key. France is noisy yes but I'm not predicting france I'm predicting uK's trend based on the data we have on France italy and China.
Daily death figures are noisy by their nature. It's basically random what particular day somebody dies, so you can't use individual death figures for a particular day to discern a trend.

The only way to say if we've turned a corner is if our trend line goes parallel to the 'increase every 3 days' trend line for a sustained period (like, a week or so).

Edit:

Just saw gerg update his post (I think it wasn't there before?) and actually, from the daily figures it seems like we are on increasing every 3 days. That didn't seem super clear on the graph. Hopefully the trend continues in that direction! (also: how awful is it that we're only hoping it only doubles every 3 days?).
 
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Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,797
They did...


Unbelievable: our officers break up 20-strong BBQ defying lockdown orders | News | West Midlands Police

Despite the government’s clear social distancing instruction last night our officers today found a group of 20 people ignoring the lockdown and tucking into a BBQ. Neighbourhood officers were on patrol in Foleshill Road, Coventry, just after 2pm when they smelt food cooking and smoke rising...

Good stuff!

Just realised that we haven't seen Boris at all today...
 

gosublime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,429
This is amazing.

But surely they are doing CRB checks on the volunteers? I would hope? These are vulnerable people and volunteers will be transporting them and taking them to their homes etc.

Looks like they are - you have to have a certificate from the last 12 months. Oddly, as a teacher I don't at the moment because you only need to have a new one when you start a new job, and I've been at the school for just over a year.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
Daily death figures are noisy by their nature. It's basically random what particular day somebody dies, so you can't use individual death figures for a particular day to discern a trend.

The only way to say if we've turned a corner is if our trend line goes parallel to the 'increase every 3 days' trend line for a sustained period (like, a week or so).
They're really not all that noisy I mean look at those graphs, you rarely get trends that smooth without running through multiple filters and that's raw data. It's honestly pretty weird how smooth many of those graphs are considering how many variables are involved across each of the countries on a given day. The deviation from a reasonable trend-line post day 20 on many of those graphs is surprisingly minor.
 

Deleted member 16516

User requested account closure
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,427
'I can't emphasise how sick this can make you'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-52015614?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5e7a261930e3eb065b48e3ec&'I can't emphasise how sick this can make you'&2020-03-24T15:31:01.715Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:36bf9d60-1de2-455d-93a3-73809f8d6b0f&pinned_post_asset_id=5e7a261930e3eb065b48e3ec&pinned_post_type=share

"An intensive care consultant has told how he was laid low by coronavirus - after catching it from a hospital colleague.
Dr David Hepburn, from the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport, described being wiped out by the killer virus and sleeping for 18 hours a day - despite being "fit and well".

He told how many of the patients that end up in intensive care are not old and vulnerable, but are young and active.
The intensive care consultant made a heartfelt appeal to people to obey the lockdown rules and prevent the virus spreading further."
 
Nov 14, 2017
4,928
They're really not all that noisy I mean look at those graphs, you rarely get trends that smooth without running through multiple filters and that's raw data. It's honestly pretty weird how smooth many of those graphs are considering how many variables are involved across each of the countries on a given day. The deviation from a reasonable trend-line post day 20 on many of those graphs is surprisingly minor.
The underlying event is noisy though - death is basically random. Just because a random event follows a clear path for a few entries doesn't stop the underlying event from being random. Over a span of a few measurements, you can have what appears to be a trend develop for it all of a sudden to just regress back to the mean.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,687
NHS requesting 250,000 volunteers to help out. Basically if you have a car and free time you'd be of use.
If I could get an antibody test (I suspect I already have it) then I'd do this in a heartbeat once I'm better.

Edit - Stories like the one above are why I didn't return to the Royal Gwent for my additional tests. Fuck setting foot back in that place until this is over.
 
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Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
The underlying event is noisy though - death is basically random. Just because a random event follows a clear path for a few entries doesn't stop the underlying event from being random. Over a span of a few measurements, you can have what appears to be a trend develop for it all of a sudden to just regress back to the mean.
It still allows you to predict with reasonable accuracy for those entries. Considering what your dealing with here that's pretty good. It's actionable data, it's not enough to indicate on the bigger picture whether those actions are correct but it's a lot better than a total shot in the dark.
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
Is this stupid?

My brother's girlfriend works in the NHS away from him at the moment in a different city so they haven't seen each other in 6 months. She has her holidays, currently been off a week already and she is coming over to stay with him at my mum and dads house who are late sixties, early seventies. Now he says he had a cold, cough or whatever the last few weeks so assumes my mum and dad if they were going to get coronavirus would have already since he lives with them assuming that's what he has but they've shown no symptoms except my dad has a cough which we are keeping an eye on daily. Now both of them are basically, got to see each other mode, whatever and don't worry about it but I think it's too risky and selfish. I would be seriously pissed if she did have it and gave it to them but my mum seems to be accepting well, they want to see each other. Also the fact she may bring it back to the NHS patients, my other brothers wife thinks it's both stupid for them, parents and the NHS to visit each other too.

What do you think?
 

blaze

Member
Oct 25, 2017
753
UK
Well the self storage industry continues as normal today, thought we might actually have some good news about closing and limiting the access but outside of don't let people into the office we still have to come to work and carry on, I know other companies don't even have the don't enter the reception policy too. We've actually been busier than ever today as well, people being idiots and just carrying on like nothing has happened; trying to hand us parcels for courier pickups, tons of people going to their units picking up completely unimportant things, even had someone trying to get into the office who was coughing and spluttering away at the door.

It would be easy enough to change how we operate to just allow essential customers access remotely but they'll argue their way out of that every step of the way. Frustrating to say the least.
 

Yankee Ruin X

Member
Oct 31, 2017
2,684
Well the self storage industry continues as normal today, thought we might actually have some good news about closing and limiting the access but outside of don't let people into the office we still have to come to work and carry on, I know other companies don't even have the don't enter the reception policy too. We've actually been busier than ever today as well, people being idiots and just carrying on like nothing has happened; trying to hand us parcels for courier pickups, tons of people going to their units picking up completely unimportant things, even had someone trying to get into the office who was coughing and spluttering away at the door.

It would be easy enough to change how we operate to just allow essential customers access remotely but they'll argue their way out of that every step of the way. Frustrating to say the least.

Might be worth dropping a tweet to this arsehole, he's a scumbag but if he's calling out companies who are refusing to close then it might embarrass your bosses enough to close:

 

Wallace Wells

Member
May 24, 2019
4,839
Is this stupid?

My brother's girlfriend works in the NHS away from him at the moment in a different city so they haven't seen each other in 6 months. She has her holidays, currently been off a week already and she is coming over to stay with him at my mum and dads house who are late sixties, early seventies. Now he says he had a cold, cough or whatever the last few weeks so assumes my mum and dad if they were going to get coronavirus would have already since he lives with them assuming that's what he has but they've shown no symptoms except my dad has a cough which we are keeping an eye on daily. Now both of them are basically, got to see each other mode, whatever and don't worry about it but I think it's too risky and selfish. I would be seriously pissed if she did have it and gave it to them but my mum seems to be accepting well, they want to see each other. Also the fact she may bring it back to the NHS patients, my other brothers wife thinks it's both stupid for them, parents and the NHS to visit each other too.

What do you think?
It's absolutely goes against government guidelines so they shouldn't be seeing each other. If they haven't seen each other in 6 months, they can handle another 3 weeks