I'd recommend anyone worried about this to email their MP and ask them to look at the coronavirus bill with your concerns in mind. It's going to get rushed through early next week and a lot of people will fall through the cracks as you mention.
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Just drove home through the countryside, and my nearest pub is bustling!
And I live in a small village full of mostly old retired people. What are they bloody thinking...
I fucking detest the Tories, but you are right, they've finally booted themselves up the arse and got on with things at long last.
This is why I asked you to expand on your 1 sentence remarks because one you did it belied your ignorance on the matter.
3% death is not a figure for herd immunity. It's a figure for unchecked mass infection of the entire population. No one is advocating for that. I've explained very clearly 5 or 6 times now the process that would take place. I've dealt with this fictional mis-characterisation at least 5 times now. Read those responses if you're interested in a good faith discussion. Otherwise stop calling people "fucking stupid" when it's you that's constructing strawmen.
This report on the collapse of the Italian healthcare system by Sky News should be shown to everyone still taking this lightly.
This is a look at the future here in the UK the way it's going.
This is a look at the future here in the UK the way it's going.
Mortgage relief
Yup. That and the channel 4 video, I'd really love to sit some of the cunts I still see online saying "it's just the flu bruv" down in front of it.
Herd immunity is directly related to vaccines. If not it relies on mass infection, which is why I mentioned the 3%
The ICL policy is suppression, with cyclic relaxation and reimplementation of controls based on predicted hospital capacity. They think you can't wipe out the virus completely without a vaccine, and you can't lockdown for 18 months and you can't just let the NHS collapse, so you have to cycle the lockdown. The model was very crude, and they suggest more more tuning of controls and possible local measures could be used, but that model wasn't sophisticated enough to handle that. The model also didn't account for case-tracking and targeted quarrantines, so some people think that's a better option for totally suppressing the virus (this is what Asian countries are trying).
The eventual goal is herd immunity via vaccination. Until then, it's as much suppression as we can bear for 18 months. The total number of infections must be a kept to a very small proportion of the population or we overload to he NHS.
The maths don't work for herd immunity via infection. That's what was explained to Boris an his cobra buddies over the weekend. We can't infect enough people to get herd immunity without overloading the NHS by at least 15 times, and that was with probable underestimates of the fraction needing hospitalisation.
Boris clearly doesn't understand his briefings and government policy is all over the place, but that is the ICL's interim modelling recommendation. Extreme social distancing, isolation of cases and school closures should be in place when 200 ICU beds are full. I think that would be about now, based on our death rate.
Unfortunately, the government are also taking advise from previous models that suggested suppression is impossible, but that was because they assumed it was impossible to suppress for more than 3 months. This was why they did nothing, because doing nothing is easy and they found some pessimistic models to justify it. And like an oil tanker, it's hard for them to mentally change course.
The government's advice panel (it's published on the gov website but I'm on a phone so can't link it now) literally explains the reason we have shut the schools...
The behavioural science unit advise that failure to follow other countries will result in a loss of confidence in the UK government. So we need to do it too, to look credible. Politicians understand the need to follow public opinion better than how to follow sinusoïdal logistic curves and exponential growth equations, so that's what's kicked them into action.
In suspect we'll fuck it right up, because Boris will focus on reacting to public opinion, which means we'll lock down too late.
The eventual goal is herd immunity via vaccination. Until then, it's as much suppression as we can bear for 18 months. The total number of infections must be a kept to a very small proportion of the population or we overload to he NHS.
The maths don't work for herd immunity via infection. That's what was explained to Boris an his cobra buddies over the weekend. We can't infect enough people to get herd immunity without overloading the NHS by at least 15 times, and that was with probable underestimates of the fraction needing hospitalisation.
Boris clearly doesn't understand his briefings and government policy is all over the place, but that is the ICL's interim modelling recommendation. Extreme social distancing, isolation of cases and school closures should be in place when 200 ICU beds are full. I think that would be about now, based on our death rate.
Unfortunately, the government are also taking advise from previous models that suggested suppression is impossible, but that was because they assumed it was impossible to suppress for more than 3 months. This was why they did nothing, because doing nothing is easy and they found some pessimistic models to justify it. And like an oil tanker, it's hard for them to mentally change course.
The government's advice panel (it's published on the gov website but I'm on a phone so can't link it now) literally explains the reason we have shut the schools...
The behavioural science unit advise that failure to follow other countries will result in a loss of confidence in the UK government. So we need to do it too, to look credible. Politicians understand the need to follow public opinion better than how to follow sinusoïdal logistic curves and exponential growth equations, so that's what's kicked them into action.
In suspect we'll fuck it right up, because Boris will focus on reacting to public opinion, which means we'll lock down too late.
Good use of threes, good use of repetition, parralelism. It also acted as a good epilogue to the speech, switching from factual to emotive. Dude did pretty well.
Thanks for quite the thorough assessment of things. Does the bold mean we're on or behind schedule, as it were?
I think we have already locked down to late, a week after all the other countries, but I guess we'll see how it pans out.
It was rising slowly, but now we saw two or three days of 100+ cases. So now we are seeing lots of messages to take it more serious. Governments and stores are taking it seriously. Lots of reminders about social distancing. But some people aren't. 15.000 is the predicted number (by government) by end of March, and everyone says hospital won't deal with that. A doctor I know said "we were working on the edge before this happen, it will be bad"
I personally think were are doing a lot of the right things, but we were slow to get there. And now we need to do everything better
Older generation continue to blow my mind... both my wife's parents are at the pub tonight (not together, they're divorced).
Both 60+, and apparently both invincible.
Both 60+, and apparently both invincible.
Oh cool; I'd be interested to see it in transcript form again. That speechwriter need a raise.
And yeah, the clear switch it time to become more emotive and rousing is what stood out to me. I think that's the first time Imve been blown away by a politician's speech.
To follow up on this, if I'm reading these figures right, there were 4,123 adult critical care beds 'open' in NHS England in January 2020, of which 3,423 were already occupied. That's 83% occupation before this really started. These are the beds they give to critical care patients, i.e. those that need ventilation. Of course, the rest of the country is going to get sick just as normal, and they'll need to be treated too. There will have been an increase in the number since then, but given how desperately Matt Hancock and the like were for ventilators earlier this week, it doesn't look like the capacity to increase the numbers of critical care beds was that great to begin with.
So, yeah, if in a month's time 5,000 people have the virus and are in need of ventilation, they just by themselves would overwhelm the critical care system.
The editor of The Lancet said quite explicitly that if we allow 60% of the population to get infected we'll see 400,000 people die. That's with a 1% overall death rate, which is actually a low estimate considering how fatal we know it is. We'd be very lucky to get the overall death rate that low even if the infection was spread out over a year.Government scientific advisers have already said that if they can get death down to 20,000 or below that will be fantastic achievement. In the best of best case scenarios they're already consigned to thousands dying.
It clearly is. If government policy was to drop infection rates to below 1 then they'd have called a complete shutdown days ago. That is they only way to achieve that. What we are seeing is what I keep telling you yet you keep willfully refusing to address and consistently mischaracterising. They adopting a suppression method with a staggered approach in order to allow for a greater infection spread among the healthy for the greatest time possible before it's not feasible.
Just think about it rationally, what has changed with the outbreak that schools were safe to be open for this entire past week but not next week? What has changed with this outbreak that pub, clubs. bar etc... were safe to be open yesterday but not tomorrow? Nothing. Do you honestly think health experts have changed their minds in a day? Do you honestly think a days delay has any serious economic benefit? No. The point was allow to continued controlled spread. Just look at the wording being used to justify the actions "now it the time to exert more downward force on the curve". Why now? All that's happened between now and yesterday was more people infected. And that is the point.
Eventually the government will want R0 to be 1 or below but what they don't want is to achieve that too early or too aggressively because as I keep telling you it'll be all for nothing once they relax measures and outbreaks resume as we have little to no breaks within the transmission line.
You keep conflating two completely separate things despite me correcting you 3 times now. Mitigation and herd immunity are two different things. What you keep trying to critique is the mitigation process. With mitigation the policy was to only isolate those with the disease and over 70s. That is it. That's all the measures that would have been place. That's what people keep talking about when they mention these half a million figures. That was the governments policy, but it no longer is. What the government is now doing is suppression whereby they are calling for social distancing of anyone with potential symptoms and their families, closure of schools and universities and preventing large gatherings. Now the problem with this route is, and if you read the ICL report you'd know this since it's littered across it, is that once measures are relaxed you'll see an even massive spike of cases in the winter months.
Do you see that green and orange spikes in November and December? That's what I keep telling you. It's beyond pointless to enact extreme suppression methods now if ~8months time when you relax them you're going to have an even worse situation. So as I keep telling you what the government are doing is walking a tight rope between suppressing the infection enough so that it doesn't impact the at risk but also allowed enough infection so some degree of herd immunity builds up to a sufficient level so that by the winter months we have enough breaks in the transmission chain that we can bring that curve down. Because it's not realistic in the slightest to have these strict measures in place for 18 months.
You're misconstruing herd immunity and mitigation. They are two different things. All the stats you're listing are NOT about herd immunity, they're about a mitigation policy. Before you call people morons at lest get that basic distinction correct.
Even with a strict suppression policy models have shown without a doubt that cases will spike to peak levels if herd immunity have not been achieved. The literature is littered with this exact point, how you all keep missing it is beyond me.
That's what the government is doing. Suppressing the infection but trying to build up enough herd immunity that we don't see a recurrence of cases once it's relaxed.
Right now you're basically saying it's government policy to let that happen while publicly denying it. Is that what you're saying?
This is quite honestly terrifying and exactly what needs to be shown in this country at the moment.
Yoga with Adrienne, calming, she's lovely, has cute dog. While I'd recommend it for mental health if you need the intense workout too maybe start with one focused on core, you'll feel it. Pick a gentle hippy one at random you may never do it again.
R/bodyweight fitness is good too but I think the recommend routine needs more equipment these days. Still a good resource though.
I finish my current job on March 31st but don't start my next job until April 13th, as such I won't be earning anything between this period which really sucks. Before this crisis I didn't think this gap was going to effect me much, but as things are getting progressively worse I am starting to feel very concerned.
Sorry for the daily mail article, basically Northwick Park Hospital turning patients to other hospitals. They're worried about a domino effect.
I hope ambulances have ventilators.
Herd immunity was the initial "tactic" and it took them this long to turn it around. It's going to be so much worse in a week or two.
Up to 5500 new cases per day now.
UK only has 4000 ICU beds. And the patients need a month of intensive treatment.
I hope ambulances have ventilators.
Herd immunity was the initial "tactic" and it took them this long to turn it around. It's going to be so much worse in a week or two.
Up to 5500 new cases per day now.
UK only has 4000 ICU beds. And the patients need a month of intensive treatment.
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That's not true at all. The threshold for herd immunity is directly related to how infectious a disease is. In the measles cases you used as an example that particular illness could see an carrier infect 18 others which why it needed 95% herd immunity to bring R0 down below 1. With COVID-19 a carrier can infect 2-3 so you're looking at around 50-60%. By isolating those at risk (sick and elderly) ensuring social distancing from them you can achieve that 50-60% infection rate and have that 3% mortality figure drop significantly since you're excluding effectively everyone that's susceptible to dying from this.
This is why I keep saying the 3% figure is not applicable to this discussion since it's a figure based on infecting everyone. Whether they are at risk or not. What was proposed if you actually listen to what Patrick Vaallance said was spread this between healthy individuals that would develope "very mild" reactions to it and protect "the most vulnerable". The measure is not to let this run rampant and infect 80 year olds with heart disease and lung infection. It's to isolate people like that and instead let the diseases run it's course through healthier younger people so that you break the transmission chain to those vulnerable people. That is the entire point. Because right now the virus has a clear line of sight to those at risk people.
google resistance/bodyweight exercises. Try making your own small weights with tins or milk cartons filled with water
if you have a switch, ring fit is great
So many people out tonight enjoying one last night in the pub. A lot of my Facebook are out.
Crazy
Crazy
It's been pointed out to you several times that herd immunity is no longer the strategy. The president of the WHO said today that even young people are getting hospitalised for weeks. Even a generous estimate for the herd immunity strategy is a 1% death rate, and Richard Horton said that Vallance was wrong with his initial approach.
Are you still claiming the approach is to let 60% of people get infected? Do you accept that approach will result in ~40m infections and 400k deaths?
Indeed and like I said earlier, nothing on people who are waiting on PIP tribunals and shit (like my wife) :(. With all this isolation, fuck knows what's going on with this.
For those in BT / EE contact centres, how have the last couple days been? Seemed to be getting pretty tense but hopefully today's announcement that telecoms workers can be on the key workers list will have helped a bit
As a field based communication worker who doesn't have children I can't really say but my colleagues seem reassured regarding their children etc.
My anxiety with the whole situation is off the scale.
Thought about going running?
I suppose it depends where you live. I can go for a jog from my house and on my typical route I'll jog past a single dog walker if I'm lucky.. keeping a sizeable social distance now of course.
But if you live in a town or city I realise that's going to be a little more difficult.
its just a bit of the flu, stop being so scared
- Boomers over 60.
Ah look after yourself Dan; stressful times but we'll get through it!
Are you going into customer houses?
I'm fortunate enough to work from home so less effected than others but have offered to step into contact centres to cover if needed and offered to donate my leave into a pool so people who really need it can use it but not sure how practical or possible it is
You're up near me aren't you? I seen cricket clubs here (cherry tree, Blackburn) were doing £2 a pint tonight to get people in and get through the stock
Your going to go on about this forever aren't you, no matter how the facts roll out, no matter how many deaths happen, "should've done herd immunity shouldn't we". I'd like to see your past examples and studies for how we have successfully implemented herd immunity for any disease without a vaccine, and without it killing a ton of people. There is no way we can infect 90 percent of the percent of the population or however many people it requires for your fictional herd immunity, without it killing the majority of the at risk people. We don't even know exactly who the at risk people are(specifically, we know demographically but even supposed young healthy people are getting sick from it, doctors are dying from it, you or I could be at risk from it). This is an new unknown virus, we still do not even know if you as an individual become immune to it if get it. There's so much we don't know about this virus but lets just use our county as petri dish and test out some wacky theories like "everyone gets and it and everything's, fine" who knows we could even mutate a more deadlier form of it. But who cares its worth all the people dying to get our magical herd immunity(/s).
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This is in no way an attack on you or any telecoms worker - we absolutely need you to keep the country going - but the size of that list is making me wonder how many kids will be in school on Monday. I've not heard of a single place that is closed, a lot of schools have said that all staff are to be in because they just don't know how many kids there will be. We could be in a bizarre Schrodinger's School situation.
I don't disagree, I could argue to be on the list but it would be nonsense as I'm in a corporate role.
We absolutely need people keeping to network running so people in customer care and openreach engineers but the rest of us not so much.
Interesting that on my sons letter from school they mentioned they wanted contacts for your employer to check it you really were in a critical role.
There's certainly going to be more trying to stay in school than I initially thought
Just reheat the food, after getting it out of the box and packaging. Modern microwaves can blast the heat right into the food and very, very likely kill the virus after 30 seconds.
everyones a key worker according to the government.
Home internet isn't important no matter how much people moan about it.
Is anywhere even selling ring fit anymore?
It was sold out before the virus. And I haven't seen a copy for sale ever.
Of course it's important, how else are people supposed to work from home without internet access?
There were lots of parents trying it on at my partner's school today, not wanting to keep them for a month. One mother claimed she worked in the pharmacutical industry and was a necessary key worker and her son couldn't possibly stay at home. A bit of digging later, it turns out she works at a makeup counter in Boots.
Fuck loads of people are WFH now. How we supposed to do that without internet?
You don't basically.
lots of people can't work from home and they've at home isolating so what difference does it make if you can or can't work from home.