UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)

Oct 27, 2017
3,154
The World
Really hope this doesn't become huge, so dangerous
Modi is a piece if shit. Fuck that guy.
Fascist going to fascist. Modi and his thugs are incredibly dangerous.
Nobody I know at least in India takes NewsX very seriously. Interestingly, it is also owned and run a Congress political family so no idea why they are even doing these kinds of stories. Anyway, Indian News is worse than even US or UK press.
 

ronpontelle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
523
Reporters should ask him about drug pricing and phrase it in a pro-american way. “Will you end the global free loading of American Pharmaceuticals and Drugs, by ensuring British people pay the same as Americans in any future trade deal?”
That was my first thought on it all, because otherwise hell just deny it. Need a US journalist to do it though!

I don't think that Trump simply saying Boris is a good guy will make much difference - if people are voting Tory at this point, I really don't think they'll care.
 

jelly

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,475
Feels like a last gasp for the Tory party and right wing billionaires, if they win a majority then it's party time for them but they won't get it again afterwards when they really turn the screw with Brexit etc. I think the hate and blame isn't sustainable when they screw people that much, see how they are even worried at the moment of not getting a majority, this election is permission to rob us blind and consolidate power on a level not seen in many decades or recent times. You either vote for it or you don't.
 
Oct 27, 2017
606
Feels like a last gasp for the Tory party and right wing billionaires, if they win a majority then it's party time for them but they won't get it again afterwards when they really turn the screw with Brexit etc. I think the hate and blame isn't sustainable when they screw people that much, see how they are even worried at the moment of not getting a majority, this election is permission to rob us blind and consolidate power on a level not seen in many decades or recent times. You either vote for it or you don't.
If the Tories win this time, they’re in power for decades.

 

SwitchedOff

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,892
What a country we built this decade.

25-30% cuts to all govt departments.
25-30% cuts to all councils
Half of councils facing effective bankruptcy.

McDonalds in the UK - 1,270
Greggs in the UK - 1,953
Foodbanks in the UK - 2,000

Foodbank use up 2,400%.
Homelessness up 1,000%.
Rough sleeping up 1,200%
Student fees up 300%
Student debt up 150%

Worst NHS waiting times on record.
Key targets for cancer, hospital care & A&E missed.
NHS satisfaction level at lowest recorded rate.
33,000 nurses leaving the NHS each year

1,000 sure start centres closed.
780 libraries closed.
700 football pitches closed.
Sixth form funding cut by 25%.

Council home building down 90%.
100,000 increase on the council home waiting list since 2010.
200, 000 social homes lost since 2010.
Zero "starter homes" built - a Tory flagship programme.
Mass evictions at record levels.

Manufacturing in recession.
Construction in recession.

36,000 fewer teachers
25,000 fewer police.
20,000 fewer prison officers.
10,000 fewer border officials.
10,000 fewer firefighters.
10,000 fewer medical professionals.
25,000 fewer bed spaces for people suffering mental illness.

80% of the 5.3 million self employed live below poverty line.
35% of self employed only earn £100 a month.
25% cuts for the disabled community.
80% cuts to Mobility Allowance.
40% of working households have practically no savings.
70% of households have less than 10k savings.
60% of households can only survive 2 months without a wage.

Increase of 50% in hate crimes.
Increase of knife crime by 150% to 22,000 per year.
Increase in teenage suicide by 70%.

130k extra deaths attached to the political ideology of austerity.

Child poverty set to reach a record high in 2023-24 if the Conservative manifesto is enacted in full.
I've had so many conversations with folk my age that have completely lost hope, the fatalist misery is palpable.
That's what the Tories want because it will assure them of victory. Please make sure that the people you speak to (I assume they're not Tories) actually vote, however defeatist they feel about it. No vote = Tory win. Vote = more chance of a Labour win.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
676
Kantar going in the wrong direction :(

all +1 are just margin of error changes really, the last kantar poll (have the least favourable labour weighting, though might be right to do so) saw a 5 point jump for labour up to 32%, so to consolidate that in the next poll instead of being an outlier is within the overall trend

obviously want to see labour increase by more though given the election is so near and lots of ppl are already postal voting
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
670
all +1 are just margin of error changes really, the last kantar poll (have the least favourable labour weighting, though might be right to do so) saw a 5 point jump for labour up to 32%, so to consolidate that in the next poll instead of being an outlier is within the overall trend

obviously want to see labour increase by more though given the election is so near and lots of ppl are already postal voting
Yeah I'm not too worried by one poll but they had a bigger CON lead than average and in an entire week its grown by 1 rather than shrunk. And the margin of error at this point should be more like whether its +2 or +3 for labour if we're heading for a hung parliament, not +0 or +1 for the Tories.

With only a week to go we need to see more polls break 35 for labour, the polls aren't looking as good as last election at this point.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
676
lib dems getting some good coverage on the back of hugh grant promoting their candidates as good tactical voting options and then squandering it due to exploiting his name to pointlessly lie really epitomises the energy of their campaign

Yeah I'm not too worried by one poll but they had a bigger CON lead than average and in an entire week its grown by 1 rather than shrunk. And the margin of error at this point should be more like whether its +2 or +3 for labour if we're heading for a hung parliament, not +0 or +1 for the Tories.

With only a week to go we need to see more polls break 35 for labour, the polls aren't looking as good as last election at this point.
agree.

still think tory majority is most likely outcome on current polling, labour rises are too slow and tory vote is rock solid :(
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
676
not convinced labour doing well in london is that good because it’s piling up votes in lots of largely safe seats (other than kensington and battersea which we might well lose regardless even if we go higher there) and suggests we might be doing worse in other more valuable leave areas if that’s where the growth in labour votes is coming from

the labour 2017 -> why does corbyn love brexit -> lib dem European elections, vote coming back to labour is obviously good, just worried about FPTP
 

solidussnaku

Member
Nov 29, 2017
1,442
Looking good in London:


Ok, this was low key VERY needed for labour. There were fears the lib dems would split this and the cons come in through the middle. However that rise for lab and that decline for the lib dems means things quickly going the way they need to be for the tories to fuck up this election.
 

phisheep

Member
Oct 26, 2017
914
Who are the 8% of ex-labour voters who decided to switch for Tories.
Did they turn 55 in the meantime?
Or were they so misogynistic they couldn't vote for May, but Boris has just the right level of testosterone to get them back?
I just can't understand. 8% seems a lot.
I'm seeing more and more of this, and it rather alarms me. So far the ones that I have talked to are lifelong labour voters who voted Leave and were otherwise tempted by ( or actually voted for) the Brexit Party but, being as the BP is not standing have switched to the Tories.

Shades of the Alf Garnett era - every one of them white working class.
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
670
Was it Kantar that had like a 90%+ turnout for 65+, way more than the 2017 election, but then had 18-24 turnout at half of 2017?
Had a look at their PDF and yes they're still doing similar weighting due to their survey results. Without weightings for likelihood to vote its 39-33-16 for the top 3 parites, so a CON lead of 6 instead of 11. The main reason for the change is that 51%(!!) of under 25s told Kantar they probably/definitely won't be voting, and 48% of 25-34 year olds. In comparison, only 25% of 65+ year olds gave those responses.
 

SwitchedOff

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,892
Had a look at their PDF and yes they're still doing similar weighting due to their survey results. Without weightings for likelihood to vote its 39-33-16 for the top 3 parites, so a CON lead of 6 instead of 11. The main reason for the change is that 51%(!!) of under 25s told Kantar they probably/definitely won't be voting, and 48% of 25-34 year olds. In comparison, only 25% of 65+ year olds gave those responses.
Bit in bold - If that really is correct then people in those age groups need a severe kick up the arse.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
676
I'm seeing more and more of this, and it rather alarms me. So far the ones that I have talked to are lifelong labour voters who voted Leave and were otherwise tempted by ( or actually voted for) the Brexit Party but, being as the BP is not standing have switched to the Tories.

Shades of the Alf Garnett era - every one of them white working class.
think instead of blaming voters the opposition parties need to have a big think after the election about how they allowed leave voters to have only one leave party to vote for in nearly every a seat.

i note that in ashfield where leavers are offered a credible independent candidate in jason zadrozny who is pro-brexit but not a tory or a farage vehicle people are tempted by it. likewise in the local elections you saw big gains for local candidates who were pro-brexit but not signed up to the rest of the tory platform at expense of labour and tories.
 

Monkeylord

Member
Nov 8, 2017
80
UK
Not entirely sure if significant, but I've started seeing forecasts of heavy snow (particularly in the south and south east) predicted for the end of next week.

This far out, accuracy can only be, what, 30-40%? but if even slightly true it will put off people who don't have a postal vote.
 

solidussnaku

Member
Nov 29, 2017
1,442
Had a look at their PDF and yes they're still doing similar weighting due to their survey results. Without weightings for likelihood to vote its 39-33-16 for the top 3 parites, so a CON lead of 6 instead of 11. The main reason for the change is that 51%(!!) of under 25s told Kantar they probably/definitely won't be voting, and 48% of 25-34 year olds. In comparison, only 25% of 65+ year olds gave those responses.

I mentioned earlier but it's too late for pollsters to change the methodology based on the massive numbers we saw registering to vote last month. To do so would cause huge chaos and swings in the polls at a stage that would cause massive controversy. Better to stick to the current methods and sort out models after the election.
 

Zaph

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,709
If the Tories win this time, they’re in power for decades.

Could you imagine the headlines if a paragraph about changing our entire democracy was in the Labour manifesto? And Iannucci is right of course, if the Tories get a majority, they're going to go full GOP and do anything they can do extend the life of a party with an ageing voterbase - especially given the festering anger they have for every bit of legislation and procedure that "got in the way" of their brexit plan.

And if this really is the last gasp of the Tories, they've picked an absolute corker - the upcoming term will define the country for a couple decades at least.
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
670
Not looking too different:
The problem with this is that its a rolling average, it may look similar on a poll of polls like this but not if you isolate the last few days. We're 9 days before the election and the last 10 polls have a con lead of: 12 (newest), 7, 9, 13, 9, 15, 10, 8, 6, 7 - an average of 9.6 and a low of 6. Compare that to the same point in 2017: 6, 3, 6, 10, 12, 4, 6, 7, 14, 12 - an average of 8.0 with a low of 3. In the coming days in 2017 we saw a lot more single figure polls including one showing a 1pt CON lead and another in fact showing a 2pt LAB lead. The 2017 gap continued to close whereas right now it seems to be stalling slightly

The poll of polls really doesn't tell the whole story, last time there was a really large range in polls, with the ones showing a large CON lead bringing up the average. However it turned out the close ones were correct last time, and quite a few of them accurately predicted the 2-3pt lead. This time the close polls are a bit further away and there are fewer of them.

I mentioned earlier but it's too late for pollsters to change the methodology based on the massive numbers we saw registering to vote last month. To do so would cause huge chaos and swings in the polls at a stage that would cause massive controversy. Better to stick to the current methods and sort out models after the election.
True but that doesn't change the fact that in the last few days they have 51% of young people telling them they won't vote, and that should account for all the people who registered up to a week ago. On that basis their methodology is accurate, they would have to predict a 49% turnout of 18-24 year olds. Of course it is a very small sample in just one poll, but it seems like the big problem is that young people are actually not wanting to turn out on the level of 2017, and these pollsters may be right.
 
Oct 27, 2017
431
Not entirely sure if significant, but I've started seeing forecasts of heavy snow (particularly in the south and south east) predicted for the end of next week.

This far out, accuracy can only be, what, 30-40%? but if even slightly true it will put off people who don't have a postal vote.

Wishful thinking on the part of the media I think. Met office forecast currently says:

Temperatures are likely to remain at or slightly below normal with occasional milder interludes, mainly in the south.
 

Dirtyshubb

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,681
Joe have a good video for awareness of US healthcare costs that should hopefully help put things into perspective for many people.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,505
London
Not entirely sure if significant, but I've started seeing forecasts of heavy snow (particularly in the south and south east) predicted for the end of next week.

This far out, accuracy can only be, what, 30-40%? but if even slightly true it will put off people who don't have a postal vote.
Not even that, two weeks is the limit of the model, a week is the limit for being useful really, even less for precipitation type and location.
 
Oct 27, 2017
606
Just saying, Kantar’s second to last poll in 2017 showed a Tory lead of 10, which halved in the last one. Fundamentally though, British polls have been abysmal for decades, and 2017 was not the crazy exception people think it was.
 

Guppeth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,783
Sheffield, UK
My mum got this letter from Ian Austin, the former Labour MP. I've cropped off the top with her name, but it has a red letterhead and chunky red text and looks very similar to official Labour stuff. Down in the small print it says if you don't want to receive further mailings go to the Conservative website. Fuck this.

 

Cocolina

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,636
hard to reconcile the reports of youth apathy with record registrations
There is a funnel of effort between the two that will see many signup online and not actually go and vote. The effort it takes to register is not in proportion to making your choice and your going to the polling booth.
 

Geoff

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,283
There is a funnel of effort between the two that will see many signup online and not actually go and vote. The effort it takes to register is not in proportion to making your choice and your going to the polling booth.
I always find it more of a faff to make sure I'm registered than to actually vote. Polling station has always been more or less round the corner. Maybe I've been lucky though?
 

Audioboxer

Member
Nov 14, 2019
1,401

Jones is probably still raging the SNP have wiped out Labour in Scotland but if there is any one thing to unify people it's trying to unseat Jo Swinson 🤣
 

Ruddles

Member
Oct 17, 2018
52

On The Guardian liveblog today with an 11:35 time stamp, new poll shows 30% of people saying they will now vote tactically, up from 22% in their last poll. This is great news, it really can’t be stated often enough, if you’re a LibDem voter in the North / Midlands, don’t throw away your vote, vote Labour! And if you’re a Labour voter and based on the MRP survey the LibDems are the closest challenger, hold your nose and vote LD, every Tory bastard unseated is one less that can pursue their self-serving agenda!
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
676

Jones is probably still raging the SNP have wiped out Labour in Scotland but if there is any one thing to unify people it's trying to unseat Jo Swinson 🤣
hate swinson but this seems a little petty when there’s so many labour seats under threat in the midlands, wales and north where campaigning could get them just over the line