The BBC will have very few allies after this election. If the Tories want to gut it they can go right ahead, fucking shameful display.
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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)
- Thread starter Uzzy
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Nobody I know at least in India takes NewsX very seriously. Interestingly, it is also owned and run a Congress political family so no idea why they are even doing these kinds of stories. Anyway, Indian News is worse than even US or UK press.
Dunno, Tories will get by with just boomers and the middle class for the next few decades
We will have to see, they have been struggling to get a decent majority, it doesn't feel as bad as the Thatcher years(yet)
That was my first thought on it all, because otherwise hell just deny it. Need a US journalist to do it though!
I don't think that Trump simply saying Boris is a good guy will make much difference - if people are voting Tory at this point, I really don't think they'll care.
Feels like a last gasp for the Tory party and right wing billionaires, if they win a majority then it's party time for them but they won't get it again afterwards when they really turn the screw with Brexit etc. I think the hate and blame isn't sustainable when they screw people that much, see how they are even worried at the moment of not getting a majority, this election is permission to rob us blind and consolidate power on a level not seen in many decades or recent times. You either vote for it or you don't.
That's what the Tories want because it will assure them of victory. Please make sure that the people you speak to (I assume they're not Tories) actually vote, however defeatist they feel about it. No vote = Tory win. Vote = more chance of a Labour win.
all +1 are just margin of error changes really, the last kantar poll (have the least favourable labour weighting, though might be right to do so) saw a 5 point jump for labour up to 32%, so to consolidate that in the next poll instead of being an outlier is within the overall trend
obviously want to see labour increase by more though given the election is so near and lots of ppl are already postal voting
Theyve Had silly methodology in the past. I wouldn't worry about them.
This gave me a chuckle since it isn't too far off what some people genuinely believe.
Yeah I'm not too worried by one poll but they had a bigger CON lead than average and in an entire week its grown by 1 rather than shrunk. And the margin of error at this point should be more like whether its +2 or +3 for labour if we're heading for a hung parliament, not +0 or +1 for the Tories.
With only a week to go we need to see more polls break 35 for labour, the polls aren't looking as good as last election at this point.
lib dems getting some good coverage on the back of hugh grant promoting their candidates as good tactical voting options and then squandering it due to exploiting his name to pointlessly lie really epitomises the energy of their campaign
agree.
still think tory majority is most likely outcome on current polling, labour rises are too slow and tory vote is rock solid :(
agree.
still think tory majority is most likely outcome on current polling, labour rises are too slow and tory vote is rock solid :(
not convinced labour doing well in london is that good because it's piling up votes in lots of largely safe seats (other than kensington and battersea which we might well lose regardless even if we go higher there) and suggests we might be doing worse in other more valuable leave areas if that's where the growth in labour votes is coming from
the labour 2017 -> why does corbyn love brexit -> lib dem European elections, vote coming back to labour is obviously good, just worried about FPTP
the labour 2017 -> why does corbyn love brexit -> lib dem European elections, vote coming back to labour is obviously good, just worried about FPTP
Ok, this was low key VERY needed for labour. There were fears the lib dems would split this and the cons come in through the middle. However that rise for lab and that decline for the lib dems means things quickly going the way they need to be for the tories to fuck up this election.
I'm seeing more and more of this, and it rather alarms me. So far the ones that I have talked to are lifelong labour voters who voted Leave and were otherwise tempted by ( or actually voted for) the Brexit Party but, being as the BP is not standing have switched to the Tories.
Shades of the Alf Garnett era - every one of them white working class.
Had a look at their PDF and yes they're still doing similar weighting due to their survey results. Without weightings for likelihood to vote its 39-33-16 for the top 3 parites, so a CON lead of 6 instead of 11. The main reason for the change is that 51%(!!) of under 25s told Kantar they probably/definitely won't be voting, and 48% of 25-34 year olds. In comparison, only 25% of 65+ year olds gave those responses.
Bit in bold - If that really is correct then people in those age groups need a severe kick up the arse.
think instead of blaming voters the opposition parties need to have a big think after the election about how they allowed leave voters to have only one leave party to vote for in nearly every a seat.
i note that in ashfield where leavers are offered a credible independent candidate in jason zadrozny who is pro-brexit but not a tory or a farage vehicle people are tempted by it. likewise in the local elections you saw big gains for local candidates who were pro-brexit but not signed up to the rest of the tory platform at expense of labour and tories.
Not entirely sure if significant, but I've started seeing forecasts of heavy snow (particularly in the south and south east) predicted for the end of next week.
This far out, accuracy can only be, what, 30-40%? but if even slightly true it will put off people who don't have a postal vote.
This far out, accuracy can only be, what, 30-40%? but if even slightly true it will put off people who don't have a postal vote.
I mentioned earlier but it's too late for pollsters to change the methodology based on the massive numbers we saw registering to vote last month. To do so would cause huge chaos and swings in the polls at a stage that would cause massive controversy. Better to stick to the current methods and sort out models after the election.
Could you imagine the headlines if a paragraph about changing our entire democracy was in the Labour manifesto? And Iannucci is right of course, if the Tories get a majority, they're going to go full GOP and do anything they can do extend the life of a party with an ageing voterbase - especially given the festering anger they have for every bit of legislation and procedure that "got in the way" of their brexit plan.
And if this really is the last gasp of the Tories, they've picked an absolute corker - the upcoming term will define the country for a couple decades at least.
The problem with this is that its a rolling average, it may look similar on a poll of polls like this but not if you isolate the last few days. We're 9 days before the election and the last 10 polls have a con lead of: 12 (newest), 7, 9, 13, 9, 15, 10, 8, 6, 7 - an average of 9.6 and a low of 6. Compare that to the same point in 2017: 6, 3, 6, 10, 12, 4, 6, 7, 14, 12 - an average of 8.0 with a low of 3. In the coming days in 2017 we saw a lot more single figure polls including one showing a 1pt CON lead and another in fact showing a 2pt LAB lead. The 2017 gap continued to close whereas right now it seems to be stalling slightly
The poll of polls really doesn't tell the whole story, last time there was a really large range in polls, with the ones showing a large CON lead bringing up the average. However it turned out the close ones were correct last time, and quite a few of them accurately predicted the 2-3pt lead. This time the close polls are a bit further away and there are fewer of them.
True but that doesn't change the fact that in the last few days they have 51% of young people telling them they won't vote, and that should account for all the people who registered up to a week ago. On that basis their methodology is accurate, they would have to predict a 49% turnout of 18-24 year olds. Of course it is a very small sample in just one poll, but it seems like the big problem is that young people are actually not wanting to turn out on the level of 2017, and these pollsters may be right.
Wishful thinking on the part of the media I think. Met office forecast currently says:
Joe have a good video for awareness of US healthcare costs that should hopefully help put things into perspective for many people.
Phhft, don't trust the weather forecast until the day before. Especially in winter.
Not even that, two weeks is the limit of the model, a week is the limit for being useful really, even less for precipitation type and location.
Just saying, Kantar's second to last poll in 2017 showed a Tory lead of 10, which halved in the last one. Fundamentally though, British polls have been abysmal for decades, and 2017 was not the crazy exception people think it was.
My mum got this letter from Ian Austin, the former Labour MP. I've cropped off the top with her name, but it has a red letterhead and chunky red text and looks very similar to official Labour stuff. Down in the small print it says if you don't want to receive further mailings go to the Conservative website. Fuck this.
There is a funnel of effort between the two that will see many signup online and not actually go and vote. The effort it takes to register is not in proportion to making your choice and your going to the polling booth.
I always find it more of a faff to make sure I'm registered than to actually vote. Polling station has always been more or less round the corner. Maybe I've been lucky though?
Jones is probably still raging the SNP have wiped out Labour in Scotland but if there is any one thing to unify people it's trying to unseat Jo Swinson 🤣
On The Guardian liveblog today with an 11:35 time stamp, new poll shows 30% of people saying they will now vote tactically, up from 22% in their last poll. This is great news, it really can't be stated often enough, if you're a LibDem voter in the North / Midlands, don't throw away your vote, vote Labour! And if you're a Labour voter and based on the MRP survey the LibDems are the closest challenger, hold your nose and vote LD, every Tory bastard unseated is one less that can pursue their self-serving agenda!
hate swinson but this seems a little petty when there's so many labour seats under threat in the midlands, wales and north where campaigning could get them just over the line
Probably but it still requires fiddling round vs strolling five minutes down the road and popping into the booth.
Possibly just me. I'm prepared to concede this.
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