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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19

Koukalaka

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,705
Scotland
The problem they'd have with that is the worst quote is the a pound in Croydon is better spent than a pound in Strathclyde which is a difficult one to use in the borders or Aberdeen where the reaction of the locals might be "maybe". Never underestimate the central belt dislike up north or in the borders, they basically view the central belt in the same way people in the North of England view London.
While the SNP will no doubt clean up thanks to FPTP up here, there's parts of the country where they're hated with a passion.

I used to know someone from the borders who was completely interested in politics, but had a seething, seemingly irrational hatred of the SNP whenever they were mentioned.
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
777
Never underestimate the central belt dislike up north or in the borders, they basically view the central belt in the same way people in the North of England view London.
Can confirm.

As for the SNP discussion; while they have the constant motivator of independence, I have felt for a while that they're falling victim to the kind of arrogant complacency that saw people eventually decide to kick Labour out.
 

Shevek

Member
Oct 25, 2017
688
Cape Town, South Africa
Corbyn will be the new pm.
For the UK's sake, I really hope so. From the outside looking in, this and Bernie's campaign in the US feels like a very rare chance to elect a decent human being with the exact policies needed to undo the damage inflicted by consecutive generations of conservative and neoliberal governments.

Seems like Labour are running one hell of an effective campaign though, while the Tories and LibDems appear to be falling flat on their arse. Keeping fingers crossed over here in the global south
 

kmag

Member
Nov 5, 2017
2,010
Can confirm.

As for the SNP discussion; while they have the constant motivator of independence, I have felt for a while that they're falling victim to the kind of arrogant complacency that saw people eventually decide to kick Labour out.
The SNP fundamentally are a conglomeration of various screeds of politicians who unite over independence. I doubt Sturgeon and Swinney would be in the same party if not for their shared view on independence. To counter this they have incredible message and party discipline but it leaves them feeling a bit stale at time, and when you couple that with their uquibity over the last decade then it's not surprising they seem a bit tired.

For what it's worth their polling suggests that the engagement of their votes is more like 2015 than 2017 but whether that survives unionist tactical voting remains to be seen. I think at the very maximum they top out at 48-49 seats but could go as low as 37 or 38.

SNP 49
CON 5
LD 3
LAB 2

I think the #UnionistsUnite pish will save the Tories in a couple of the Fishing seats up north, they'll do well with as usual in the Borders. Murray will win for Labour in Edinburgh and Labour will pick up a close one in the central belt (probably Coatbridge: where the SNP are still riven by local infighting and the Labour party appartatus is still relatively strong).
 

TechnicPuppet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,496
The SNP fundamentally are a conglomeration of various screeds of politicians who unite over independence. I doubt Sturgeon and Swinney would be in the same party if not for their shared view on independence. To counter this they have incredible message and party discipline but it leaves them feeling a bit stale at time, and when you couple that with their uquibity over the last decade then it's not surprising they seem a bit tired.

For what it's worth their polling suggests that the engagement of their votes is more like 2015 than 2017 but whether that survives unionist tactical voting remains to be seen. I think at the very maximum they top out at 48-49 seats but could go as low as 37 or 38.

SNP 49
CON 5
LD 3
LAB 2

I think the #UnionistsUnite pish will save the Tories in a couple of the Fishing seats up north, they'll do well with as usual in the Borders. Murray will win for Labour in Edinburgh and Labour will pick up a close one in the central belt (probably Coatbridge: where the SNP are still riven by local infighting and the Labour party appartatus is still relatively strong).
Unionism in the Scottish Labour party isn't the same as unionism in the Tories. I don't think the yes campaign ever really grasped this and they will need to, to win independence.

This is why I just don't understand this unionists unite nonsense. I'll take an SNP over a Tory every single time and so would everyone I know in the party.
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
777
The SNP fundamentally are a conglomeration of various screeds of politicians who unite over independence. I doubt Sturgeon and Swinney would be in the same party if not for their shared view on independence. To counter this they have incredible message and party discipline but it leaves them feeling a bit stale at time, and when you couple that with their uquibity over the last decade then it's not surprising they seem a bit tired.

For what it's worth their polling suggests that the engagement of their votes is more like 2015 than 2017 but whether that survives unionist tactical voting remains to be seen. I think at the very maximum they top out at 48-49 seats but could go as low as 37 or 38.

SNP 49
CON 5
LD 3
LAB 2

I think the #UnionistsUnite pish will save the Tories in a couple of the Fishing seats up north, they'll do well with as usual in the Borders. Murray will win for Labour in Edinburgh and Labour will pick up a close one in the central belt (probably Coatbridge: where the SNP are still riven by local infighting and the Labour party appartatus is still relatively strong).
I doubt LDs will lose seats tbh. Just as one example North East Fife is absolutely there for the taking with just the tiniest smidgen of extra unionist tactical voting.
 

kmag

Member
Nov 5, 2017
2,010
I doubt LDs will lose seats tbh. Just as one example North East Fife is absolutely there for the taking with just the tiniest smidgen of extra unionist tactical voting.
Me neither those 'predictions' are my absolute best case scenario for the SNP (I mean I suppose you could push the Tories down a bit more but I don't really see the SNP's sell in the North East Tory seats)
 

Zappy

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,674
For the UK's sake, I really hope so. From the outside looking in, this and Bernie's campaign in the US feels like a very rare chance to elect a decent human being with the exact policies needed to undo the damage inflicted by consecutive generations of conservative and neoliberal governments.

Seems like Labour are running one hell of an effective campaign though, while the Tories and LibDems appear to be falling flat on their arse. Keeping fingers crossed over here in the global south
If you get out of the bubble you realise they really, really aren't.
 

killer_clank

Member
Oct 25, 2017
481
Me neither those 'predictions' are my absolute best case scenario for the SNP (I mean I suppose you could push the Tories down a bit more but I don't really see the SNP's sell in the North East Tory seats)
The SNPs strength in the north east partly came from being the default non Tory option for a lot of seats up there, and whether they can take them back probably depends on whether this becomes a “Tories out” election or an independence election. My guess is a bit of both so we might get some results all over the place.
 

solidussnaku

Member
Nov 29, 2017
1,225
Of the traditional broadcasters only Sky have went with it. The BBC and ITV seem to be avoiding it like the plague.

Expected of the BBC, I'll give ITV a pass as they have been pretty impartial so far and gave labour coverage. They will cover the story at least.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-momentum-jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-919594


They are over £300k, beat the 2017 figure in less then 2 weeks.

They doubled the target they set themselves for the first 48 hours. 👀 Fuck me!

 
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CD_93

Member
Dec 12, 2017
601
That Johnson video has been picked up by LBC.

Meanwhile the BBC buried it in their live blog and quickly moved on.
 

solidussnaku

Member
Nov 29, 2017
1,225
That Johnson video has been picked up by LBC.

Meanwhile the BBC buried it in their live blog and quickly moved on.

Blowing up online so ehhhhh. Last count on Twitter alone was 1.2 mil.

They can try and suppress it all they want but it wont work and just makes them look more out of date then they already are.
 

Khoryos

Member
Nov 5, 2019
131
I'd hope if an actually-left Labour government got in, Scottish Labour would experience a resurgence too.
Admittedly this is based mostly on my family up there, but my understanding has always been that Scotland as a whole is much more left than England, so it's no real wonder that New Labour lacked appeal.
 

MrOblong

Member
Oct 27, 2017
72
Blowing up online so ehhhhh. Last count on Twitter alone was 1.2 mil.

They can try and suppress it all they want but it wont work and just makes them look more out of date then they already are.
Don't get me wrong man, I'm on the same side as you so I mean this in the kindest way, but your posts are so positive it's exhausting!

Unfortunately, how the BBC covers this election matters a lot- more than how LBC cover it, many times over. This kind of unfair media treatment is important, most Labour target voters aren't even on Twitter etc.

And I like to see Momentum signing up lots of activists, but our only hope is that they can get out the youth vote rather than change many people's minds, because the doors they knock on will mostly have the middle-aged and pensioners behind them, endless tides of pouting gammon saying "I'm never voting for him, because... *garbled audio*".

Don't over inflate the hype bubble. Don't do this to yourself. Hope for the best, but don't pretend we're already there because the whiplash could be huge.
 

rabathehutch

Member
Nov 1, 2017
106
I'd hope if an actually-left Labour government got in, Scottish Labour would experience a resurgence too.
Admittedly this is based mostly on my family up there, but my understanding has always been that Scotland as a whole is much more left than England, so it's no real wonder that New Labour lacked appeal.
But New Labour was when Labour performed best in Scotland. Scotland is largely more left wing than England and 2017 saw a slight improvement for Labour but SNP see the benefit of taking both Tory and Labour votes through the hope of a second IndyRef. Scottish Labour needs a coherent message and a strong leader to start winning seats again, neither of which seem to be happening.
 

SMD

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,268
I wouldn't be so sure there, the Tories have really done some damage to the way Scottish people perceive England (much of it fair criticism too). That takes a while to fix.
I dunno if they want to risk it considering that England is willing to shaft Scotland utterly without a thought.
 
Oct 26, 2017
897
I think it’ll still lose if we leave but on a soft Brexit (single market, customs union and free movement).
Yea, I'd agree with that I think. For all intents and purposes, the day-to-day of a citizen wouldn't really change that much under that kind of Brexit. It would just be stupid to go for that as you gain literally nothing but lose all influence on the policies.
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
777
I think the assumption of a Labour government strongly swaying Scottish voters also misunderstands exactly how far left Scotland is from the rest of Britain, at least as far as I can see. There's not enough research/polling to be completely conclusive, but what research is done on the differences in attitudes across the border often shows that Scottish attitudes to core political issues (immigration, welfare) tie pretty closely to those in England.

What is self-evident Scotland has to a large degree voted to the left of England and Wales, but that voting pattern seems to be based on different factors than in the rest of GB (as kmag alluded to earlier, the SNP are a largely centre/centre-left SocDem party by platform, but their support base spans the entire political spectrum). John Curtice produced an interesting paper in December that covered attitudes to immigration, specifically, that has some interesting points of data regarding the relationship between political views and political allegiance in Scotland.

 

CD_93

Member
Dec 12, 2017
601
Absolutely infuriating that Johnson clip isn’t all over the television. A large bulk of people who need to see it aren’t seeing Twitter retweets.
 

Cocolina

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,548
While Nicola Sturgeon used her election campaign launch speech to declare war on Boris Johnson, he was given a tour of a school and tried to make a clay figure inspired by British sculptor Sir Antony Gormley, the Press Association reports:

Speaking at the George Spencer Academy, near Nottingham, the PM remarked he had “gunk” on him before declaring the task would be “a piece of cake”. But seconds later Mr Johnson paused before joking “it’s all going horribly wrong” as he had not followed the guide and noted he was creating a figure similar to “Terminator”.

He also told pupils: “He’s an interesting chap Antony Gormley - all his sculptures are modelled on himself and then he persuades people to pay colossal sums for his own image around the world. It’s amazing success he’s had.
Those metaphors though...
 

Maledict

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,518
58% of households living in poverty in the UK are employed
In work poverty has been a huge developing issue over the last decade, and mostly ignored because its complicated. All the focus on jobs and the employment rate ignores the fact we’ve created a new class of people working ridiculous hours and yet still using food banks.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,370
58% of households living in poverty in the UK are employed
Goes to show the Tories moving the goalposts on employment figures with the rise of the gig economy is a comms exercise to paper the cracks. Christ.

And those headlines this morning about Austin being a 'Labour bigwig', do me a favour. It's honestly ridiculous the doublethink of Corbyn has made the party 'unrecognisable' alongside tying his administration to the failures of New Labour.
 

Spaghetti

Member
Dec 2, 2017
2,740
58% of households living in poverty in the UK are employed
Shit, innit?

Tories love to shout about how low the unemployment figures are, but it all falls apart when you look at... basically every other metric. Poor quality jobs that don't have enough hours, or don't pay enough, or aren't secure, etc.

The definition of being "in work" is also incredibly flimsy and based on a very low number of hours. It's basically a sham to make it look like unemployment is falling. I expect if Labour get in, "unemployment" will spike as they properly redefine what being "in work" is to an actual reasonable amount of hours.

Papers will, of course, have a field day - if all the editors haven't already died of heart attacks, strokes, and brain hemorrhages thanks to Labour winning anyway.
 

CampFreddie

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,079
I'm in shock that I basically agree with SMD on everything he said about Student Loans. I guess this is the crossover point for socialists and social liberals who see publicly funded education as respectively, a good thing for society, and a necessary baseline for 'real' liberty (like a health service). I've always seen education like an investment myself. It'll pay off in both social terms and financial terms. The "lawyer on 100K" will pay enough high-rate tax to easily repay the cost of his tuition, they're not being subsidised "by the cleaner" in the way that, say, a farmer is.
I'd add that they are also a stealthy way to create a generation who see private debt as 'not a problem if it's manageable', thus ensuring that capitalist financiers keep their rent-seeking incomes. You know that people are going to look at a £1,000 credit card debt as peanuts when they owe £70,000 to the student loan company anyway. But hey, let's try another less socialist argument for why they are utter bullshit.

This is going to get a bit long and ranty. I'll put an incendiary hot take soundbite at the end for those who don't want to read it all.

Student loans have nothing to do with what is right for students, universities or the nation/society as a whole.
Their entire purpose was to change the accounting so that university funding counted as a loan rather than "government spending". This let them ignore it when calculating budget deficits and the like.
Then having done this, the loans could be sold as an asset ("What? it's nothing like a Collateralised Debt Obligation, nothing could possibly go wrong!"), removing it from government books completely. There was no direct link in government accounts between the borrowing cost and the eventual sale cost, so the govenrment thought they could get away with hiding the cost difference between the initial borrowing and the sale price.

This is also why student loans are currently at "inflation"+3% (5.4% currently), which I've always thought was ridiculous since the loan will increase faster than most people pay it off. My old loan was link to inflation only, so it wasn't so bad. So why, when the government can borrow at <1% rate, do student loans have a 5.4% interest rate?
Well, what kind of investment bank is interested in buying a consolidated debt where even the book value with an optimistic 100% repayment forecast gives them 0% profit in real terms. Much better if a hedge fund can convert that into a CDO where 'priority tier' investors get a profit of 3% in real terms regardless of inflation.

The government have already sold some student debt at way below it's face value (about half for the last set of sales) to make some quick cash (something something "because austerity").
So middle-income people get a 9% increase in their marginal tax rate unless they're super wealthy and just pay it off.
I find it shocking that the boomers that complain about the a 10% extra marginal tax rate on earnings >00K, but don't care that most millennials will be paying 10% extra on >25K.
The government have been heavily criticised for this by that famously pink paper (must be a bunch of commies!), the Finacial Times:
UK student debt sales make little economic sense
Financial return on privatisation of student loans criticised
Student loan sale cost UK £604m in lost revenues, auditor finds

So, it fucks up universities and academia by turning them into market-led organisations. It turns students into willing carriers of debt, who pay a special 10% middle income tax that previous generations escaped. And the government still pay at least half the costs anyway (and probably much more, since the debts that were sold are likely to be the best quality loans).

Saying that student loans for tuition fees allow more low-income students to go to university than in 2010 is like saying that austerity was good for the poor because low-income people are earning more on average now compared to 2010. It happened despite those things, not because of them. Tuition fees are just bullshit.

If you want to make a case for student loans helping low income people, then it needs to be made for the maintenance loan, not the tuition fee loan. And that maintenance loan should not be at 5.4% interest. I would completely support providing large inflation-linked loans to poorer students for living expenses (with lower-level loans for everyone). That seems to me the right compromise between helping poor people afford uni and reclaiming some of the costs.

Maybe when Boris privatises the NHS, people here will say that it's only right that we take loans to pay for chemo (if it doesn't work, you'll die before you repay it so who cares!), and that it's not right that a cleaner subsidises the treatment of a lawyer who could afford to go private.
 

CD_93

Member
Dec 12, 2017
601
She does have a fair point tbf
She has debates coming up, as do all the party leaders - but lets be honest, she isn’t going to become PM so a few clean Johnson vs Corbyn face-offs are necessary. Not least because it’s just another opportunity for her to go in on Corbyn while Boris stands quietly nearby.
 

Streamlined

alt account
Banned
Sep 16, 2019
243
I’m all for Swinson being in the debates because she is very unlikely to put on a good showing against Corbyn.