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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19

Spaghetti

Member
Dec 2, 2017
2,632
And those headlines this morning about Austin being a 'Labour bigwig', do me a favour. It's honestly ridiculous the doublethink of Corbyn has made the party 'unrecognisable' alongside tying his administration to the failures of New Labour.
Funny, isn't it?

Austin hasn't been relevant in Labour for over a decade, and even then he was only one of Gordon Brown's lesser leg breakers. Tom Watson and Ed Balls did a lot more with their careers post 2010.
 

Kromeo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,864
I just hope antisemitism doesn't become Corbyn's version of Hillary's emails, where it's just used as the default response to dodge actually answering questions properly
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
775
I'm in shock that I basically agree with SMD on everything he said about Student Loans. I guess this is the crossover point for socialists and social liberals who see publicly funded education as respectively, a good thing for society, and a necessary baseline for 'real' liberty (like a health service). I've always seen education like an investment myself. It'll pay off in both social terms and financial terms. The "lawyer on 100K" will pay enough high-rate tax to easily repay the cost of his tuition, they're not being subsidised "by the cleaner" in the way that, say, a farmer is.
I'd add that they are also a stealthy way to create a generation who see private debt as 'not a problem if it's manageable', thus ensuring that capitalist financiers keep their rent-seeking incomes. You know that people are going to look at a £1,000 credit card debt as peanuts when they owe £70,000 to the student loan company anyway. But hey, let's try another less socialist argument for why they are utter bullshit.

This is going to get a bit long and ranty. I'll put an incendiary hot take soundbite at the end for those who don't want to read it all.

Student loans have nothing to do with what is right for students, universities or the nation/society as a whole.
Their entire purpose was to change the accounting so that university funding counted as a loan rather than "government spending". This let them ignore it when calculating budget deficits and the like.
Then having done this, the loans could be sold as an asset ("What? it's nothing like a Collateralised Debt Obligation, nothing could possibly go wrong!"), removing it from government books completely. There was no direct link in government accounts between the borrowing cost and the eventual sale cost, so the govenrment thought they could get away with hiding the cost difference between the initial borrowing and the sale price.

This is also why student loans are currently at "inflation"+3% (5.4% currently), which I've always thought was ridiculous since the loan will increase faster than most people pay it off. My old loan was link to inflation only, so it wasn't so bad. So why, when the government can borrow at <1% rate, do student loans have a 5.4% interest rate?
Well, what kind of investment bank is interested in buying a consolidated debt where even the book value with an optimistic 100% repayment forecast gives them 0% profit in real terms. Much better if a hedge fund can convert that into a CDO where 'priority tier' investors get a profit of 3% in real terms regardless of inflation.

The government have already sold some student debt at way below it's face value (about half for the last set of sales) to make some quick cash (something something "because austerity").
So middle-income people get a 9% increase in their marginal tax rate unless they're super wealthy and just pay it off.
I find it shocking that the boomers that complain about the a 10% extra marginal tax rate on earnings >00K, but don't care that most millennials will be paying 10% extra on >25K.
The government have been heavily criticised for this by that famously pink paper (must be a bunch of commies!), the Finacial Times:
UK student debt sales make little economic sense
Financial return on privatisation of student loans criticised
Student loan sale cost UK £604m in lost revenues, auditor finds

So, it fucks up universities and academia by turning them into market-led organisations. It turns students into willing carriers of debt, who pay a special 10% middle income tax that previous generations escaped. And the government still pay at least half the costs anyway (and probably much more, since the debts that were sold are likely to be the best quality loans).

Saying that student loans for tuition fees allow more low-income students to go to university than in 2010 is like saying that austerity was good for the poor because low-income people are earning more on average now compared to 2010. It happened despite those things, not because of them. Tuition fees are just bullshit.

If you want to make a case for student loans helping low income people, then it needs to be made for the maintenance loan, not the tuition fee loan. And that maintenance loan should not be at 5.4% interest. I would completely support providing large inflation-linked loans to poorer students for living expenses (with lower-level loans for everyone). That seems to me the right compromise between helping poor people afford uni and reclaiming some of the costs.

Maybe when Boris privatises the NHS, people here will say that it's only right that we take loans to pay for chemo (if it doesn't work, you'll die before you repay it so who cares!), and that it's not right that a cleaner subsidises the treatment of a lawyer who could afford to go private.
Very interesting, thank you.
 

CeeCee

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,073
Following the BBC debates announcement, here’s the current list of debates:

2 Corbyn v Johnson debates (BBC, ITV)
1 Corbyn/Johnson/Swinson debate (Sky)
1 question time event (Corbs/Johnson/Swinson/SNP) (BBC)
1 debate with all the seven main parties (BBC)
 

jelly

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,915
Baffling when you hear the public talk about Corbyn and Labour. Life sucks, don't like him, life long Labour supporter, voting Tory/Boris. What!? Why does nobody reply with, Tories have been in power the last 10 years, what don't you like about Labour polices and Corbyn. They never ask this and if they do get some reason, oh he useless, they are mess. It's such a load of vapid shit.
 

Atrophis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
611
Notts, UK
Following the BBC debates announcement, here’s the current list of debates:

2 Corbyn v Johnson debates (BBC, ITV)
1 Corbyn/Johnson/Swinson debate (Sky)
1 question time event (Corbs/Johnson/Swinson/SNP) (BBC)
1 debate with all the seven main parties (BBC)
There were always going to be multiple debates in different formats with different line ups. Swinsons crying that she should be in every single debate was nonsensical.
 

Geoff

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,487
Little bit of drama in my constituency re: "Unite to remain"


Basically, the Greens are saying that Somerton and Frome was should have been included on the list of seats where the LD candidate would stand down for the Greens and that the LD candidate (seat is currently Tory held) refused to stand down and even rebuffed a visit from the chief whip.

LDs are denying this ever happened or that the seat should have been on the list

The idea that the LDs would stand aside in this seat seems insane to me. In 2015 and 2017 the Tories won with a large majority but it was Lib-dem from 1997 to 2015, the lib-dems smashed the local elections in the spring and I expected them to challenge hard for this seat. The Greens came fourth in 2015 and 2017.

If the lid-dems give up this seat, I would not expect all their votes to go to the Greens. Some would, some would go to Labour as the (slightly) more realistic challenger and some would go back to the Tories.

Very strange rumour in that case but there must be something in it
 

null

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,083
Following the BBC debates announcement, here’s the current list of debates:

2 Corbyn v Johnson debates (BBC, ITV)
1 Corbyn/Johnson/Swinson debate (Sky)
1 question time event (Corbs/Johnson/Swinson/SNP) (BBC)
1 debate with all the seven main parties (BBC)
Can't wait for the QT one. I hope there's a bunch of sweaty hams shouting at Corbyn to nuke someone again.
 

Gawge

Member
Oct 27, 2017
606
I don't really understand the point of the Greens anymore.

Labour are offering radical green policies. The Greens are just doing deals with austerity facilitators?
 
Oct 31, 2017
3,261
My main issue with the Greens is their opposition to nuclear energy, which I think is misguided and shortsited. THat said, Carolyn Lucas comes across as an actual human being, alwasy a rare thing in politics.
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
775
Little bit of drama in my constituency re: "Unite to remain"


Basically, the Greens are saying that Somerton and Frome was should have been included on the list of seats where the LD candidate would stand down for the Greens and that the LD candidate (seat is currently Tory held) refused to stand down and even rebuffed a visit from the chief whip.

LDs are denying this ever happened or that the seat should have been on the list

The idea that the LDs would stand aside in this seat seems insane to me. In 2015 and 2017 the Tories won with a large majority but it was Lib-dem from 1997 to 2015, the lib-dems smashed the local elections in the spring and I expected them to challenge hard for this seat. The Greens came fourth in 2015 and 2017.

If the lid-dems give up this seat, I would not expect all their votes to go to the Greens. Some would, some would go to Labour as the (slightly) more realistic challenger and some would go back to the Tories.

Very strange rumour in that case but there must be something in it
I think some minor drama here and there was always to be expected with something like this. Welsh Lib Dems throwing a miniature strop as well. I doubt the odd local party deciding to have a moan is going to have much of an impact on the national project though, tbh.
 

kradical

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,750
Certainly not the most egregious thing she's ever done, but Laura Kuenssberg confidently and energetically explaining shitposting to room full of political journalists, whilst having no idea what it actually means has to emblematic of something.


The fact that no one in the room corrected her is one thing, but actually clipping it and tweeting it out? Hilarious.
 

Geoff

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,487
Messaged the candidate re: the above and he slightly cryptically agreed with me that it was 'madness'. But didn't say whether or not the drama happened. Not that I expected him to really. I'll be fucking pissed off he does stand down because picking a winner from Labour and the Greens will be hard. Labour did well in 2017(ish - came third) but Greens beat them in 2015 and I would guess that Labour will get fewer votes and the Greens will get more (if endorsed by the LDs) which puts them level pegging. Either way the Tories will stroll it.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,149
Yes they are? They've said previously (unless memory has failed me) that they'd campaign to remain after getting a deal that protects workers rights.
They’re not a pro remain party in an explicit sense. They’re looking to negotiate a new Brexit deal.

Also:


See he’s been chatting shit again.

Nice to see the highest rated comments laying it out clearly!
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
775
Yes they are? They've said previously (unless memory has failed me) that they'd campaign to remain after getting a deal that protects workers rights.
Your memory's failed you.

I'd wager that actual Green party members definitely don't feel that the "point" of their party is predicated entirely on whether Labour supporters feel they're being useful to the Labour cause or not.
 

Flammable D

Member
Oct 30, 2017
12,740
Certainly not the most egregious thing she's ever done, but Laura Kuenssberg confidently and energetically explaining shitposting to room full of political journalists, whilst having no idea what it actually means has to emblematic of something.


The fact that no one in the room corrected her is one thing, but actually clipping it and tweeting it out? Hilarious.

Hahahaha
 

CeeCee

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,073
So, umm


There are 13 Labour MPs in the seats being targeted by the “remain alliance”.

Of those, 10 are strongly pro-Remain (including MPs who resigned frontbench positions to support remain).

This seems... backward.
 

Geoff

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,487
So, umm


There are 13 Labour MPs in the seats being targeted by the “remain alliance”.

Of those, 10 are strongly pro-Remain (including MPs who resigned frontbench positions to support remain).

This seems... backward.
Are they being targeted? Or are they low-key being aided. Those votes that would have gone the party or parties standing down, won't automatically go then remaining 'unite' candidate. Many of them will go to Labour.
 

Semfry

Member
Oct 25, 2017
386
So, umm


There are 13 Labour MPs in the seats being targeted by the “remain alliance”.

Of those, 10 are strongly pro-Remain (including MPs who resigned frontbench positions to support remain).

This seems... backward.
This tweet needs to be updated to replace "Labour Right" with "Lib Dems":

 

Dary

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,300
The English Wilderness
Certainly not the most egregious thing she's ever done, but Laura Kuenssberg confidently and energetically explaining shitposting to room full of political journalists, whilst having no idea what it actually means has to emblematic of something.


The fact that no one in the room corrected her is one thing, but actually clipping it and tweeting it out? Hilarious.
Reminds me of this classic:
 

Simon21

Member
Apr 25, 2018
775
So, umm


There are 13 Labour MPs in the seats being targeted by the “remain alliance”.

Of those, 10 are strongly pro-Remain (including MPs who resigned frontbench positions to support remain).

This seems... backward.
"Targeted" is a strange way to put it their, imo. In practice this means that in all those seats one of Labour's potential competitors is standing down. In Stroud, for example, it's the 3rd place Lib Dems who are standing down. I've been struck by some of the Labour activist hand-wringing about how this will "split the vote and help the Tories" when in reality this can only help Labour in those seats where they're in a clear battle with the Conservatives.

EDIT: It seems to me that some Labour supporters have been so desperate to push the "Lib Dems actually want Brexit!" line that they're now trying to paint the Lib Dems standing down in Labour-Tory marginals as somehow designed to hurt Labour.
 

kradical

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,750
I'd wager that actual Green party members definitely don't feel that the "point" of their party is predicated entirely on whether Labour supporters feel they're being useful to the Labour cause or not.
I can tell you you'd lose that wager in an awful lot of cases. Lots of Green party members that I know moved over from Labour because at the time, the Greens were offering a bold, radical left-wing alternative. Now, they almost universally are rooting for Corbyn to be Prime Minister, and despite unite to remain backing the Greens in this constituency, there's some disquiet about working with a platform that's seen to be anti-Labour to some degree.
 

solidussnaku

Member
Nov 29, 2017
1,206

Fieldwork was done weeks ago. Before the extension date was even reached.


Oh and:



Youth vote registration also exploded in the past few weeks.

Edit:



Old poll but Cons already dropping, they cannot afford much more too. yeah lab need to gain points, but that's expected to happen just like last time
 
Last edited:

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
504
I grew up in the North West and in one of the classic delapdated shit hole towns that was screwed over by the neverending London investment funnel.

It surprises me but also, I suppose I should totally expect people in that region to turn Tory. The tories have done nothing for that region ever but then neither did the last Labour government.

There's a lot of angry people in those areas, with little education a big old chip on their shoulder. I cannot stand to see Tory MPs representing these areas, voted in by people hamfistedly trying to make a point.

Ugh, the only hope is the Brexit part hoovering up some votes, considering it was a BNP heartland for a few years, there's plenty of people who leap to that right wing sideshow.
 

kradical

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,750

Carl2291

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,504
That Labour drop and Tory gain in Yorkshire isn't really surprising.

Where I live in Wakefield was 66% for Brexit and Doncaster/Barnsley next door were both almost 70%, and Labour are simply seen as a pro-Remain party at this point around these areas.

Labour desperately need younger voters to be out in force up here.
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,794
That Labour drop and Tory gain in Yorkshire isn't really surprising.
It's kind of fucking insane that a part of the country that is seriously disillusioned with how things are going in 2019 are taking it out on a party that hasn't governed since 2010 and are fleeing to a party that has governed for almost a decade. Like it's not surprising because this has been happing for a while but it should be surprising. At a certain point there really is nothing you can do to help those who vote against their own interests.
 

Geoff

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,487
It's kind of fucking insane that a part of the country that is seriously disillusioned with how things are going in 2019 are taking it out on a party that hasn't governed since 2010 and are fleeing to a party that has governed for almost a decade. Like it's not surprising because this has been happing for a while but it should be surprising. At a certain point there really is nothing you can do to help those who vote against their own interests.
It's not that surprising if you remember that this is the brexit election.

As much as people may want to focus on other issues.
 

JonnyDBrit

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,264

BJP (yes, that BJP) activists vow to campaign for the Tories in 48 marginals (against Labour).

What the actual fuck?
Basically banking on Brexit putting the UK into such a shitshow that it will be forced to be favourable towards India in any potential post-Brexit trade deal. Which of course has been noted would likely including easING restrictions on migration.
 

SMD

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,233
Fieldwork was done weeks ago. Before the extension date was even reached.


Oh and:



Youth vote registration also exploded in the past few weeks.

Edit:



Old poll but Cons already dropping, they cannot afford much more too. yeah lab need to gain points, but that's expected to happen just like last time
He needs to eat the book.