Sure, but we have had big swings in both certainty to vote and how much of a demographic will vote already from other pollsters and surveys. Conistently swinging higheras we need it to be. I've already said the polling is all over the place. But indeed, the situation seems similar to 2 years ago. Records broken in favour of labour and this time remain parties.The problem with this is that its a rolling average, it may look similar on a poll of polls like this but not if you isolate the last few days. We're 9 days before the election and the last 10 polls have a con lead of: 12 (newest), 7, 9, 13, 9, 15, 10, 8, 6, 7 - an average of 9.6 and a low of 6. Compare that to the same point in 2017: 6, 3, 6, 10, 12, 4, 6, 7, 14, 12 - an average of 8.0 with a low of 3. In the coming days in 2017 we saw a lot more single figure polls including one showing a 1pt CON lead and another in fact showing a 2pt LAB lead. The 2017 gap continued to close whereas right now it seems to be stalling slightly
The poll of polls really doesn't tell the whole story, last time there was a really large range in polls, with the ones showing a large CON lead bringing up the average. However it turned out the close ones were correct last time, and quite a few of them accurately predicted the 2-3pt lead. This time the close polls are a bit further away and there are fewer of them.
True but that doesn't change the fact that in the last few days they have 51% of young people telling them they won't vote, and that should account for all the people who registered up to a week ago. On that basis their methodology is accurate, they would have to predict a 49% turnout of 18-24 year olds. Of course it is a very small sample in just one poll, but it seems like the big problem is that young people are actually not wanting to turn out on the level of 2017, and these pollsters may be right.
Not really. The viral tweet saying "LOL they used 90% turnout" didn't correct for survey weighting and got the wrong answer (it was NOT assuming 90% turnout for 65+) and in their haste to deny any bad polls, no-one bothered to check the calculations.
I also just saw in the kantar poll; only 48% of the under 25 correspondants said they are registered to vote. With 34% saying they aren't and 12% don't know (6% prefer not to say). This seems like a high number not being registered to me, so perhaps they didn't get the best sample of under 25s (they only asked 115).Sure, but we have had big swings in both certainty to vote and how much of a demographic will vote already from other pollsters and surveys. Conistently swinging higheras we need it to be. I've already said the polling is all over the place. But indeed, the situation seems similar to 2 years ago. Records broken in favour of labour and this time remain parties.
With the poll, it seems kantar is an outlier. The metrics do seem the opposite of what they stated.
Thanks for the clarification. There's nothing to stop EVEL being reversed, right?Not really. The viral tweet saying "LOL they used 90% turnout" didn't correct for survey weighting and got the wrong answer (it was NOT assuming 90% turnout for 65+) and in their haste to deny any bad polls, no-one bothered to check the calculations.
However, IIRC the actual turnout used was still a little high for pensioners (low 80's, I think) and a bit low for millennials.
I wonder what will happen if we do get a hung parliament. We'll probably end up back at the polls before long and I don't know if Tories or Labour voters will have more "stamina" as we end up in a series of elections until one side can create a majority.
LibDems are probably over if that happens, but Labour would have to do a solid deal with the SNP to form a stable government and would probably lack a majority on "English" issues where Scottish MPs don't get a vote. I'd expect some shenanigans to get around that rule (tagging some national reforms onto mostly-English bills so the SNP can vote on it).
Too late to get someone to vote on your behalf?Yeah we're on holiday from Friday until the day after the election, so while we've both had confirmation, starting to get worried that our postal votes haven't turned up yet. Apparently they can't do anything about missing ones until 5 working days before the election, so given our dates if they don't turn up we're SOOL
Oy, my brother's called Ian! I'll have you know he's a perfectly nice lad! Grr. :P
To hold your baby, $40? W.T.F.?!!!
I remember finding out about that a little while ago and being shocked at how blatant the money grabbing is in the US health system. Absolutely ridiculous.
The media coverage over this whole thing has been moronic. They should just ask 'Has the US changed it's policy that foreign drug users should not be subsidised by American citizens paying 'full' price for drugs?' The answer is quite obviously no. So the US will seek to have us pay more for drugs. End of. But rather than look at factual reality, the media just loves to hunt out sound bytes and let everything devolve into a world of 'he said she said' without anyone in the public learning anything.
This article clears it up a bit, it's the cost of having another nurse present to watch the baby.
It's going to blow up, already at 45k in less then an hour.