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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19

SMD

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,469
I think you're right, which was a major question mark for me at the time. Because Clegg running was absolutely a detriment to the lib Dems for that seat. I don't know how they hadn't seen it coming when people were doing groundwork, We fucking hated the guy in the constituency. At bare minimum, basically everyone there who worked in the universities (a not insignificant number, since it's not a bad committing distance although there are a lot of higher end houses there too) at least wanted him to lose the seat.

An inanimate carbon rod in the Labour party would have won that seat that time, as people were really voting for Corbyns labour, (although in retrospect, it would have been better than O mara).

Will be interesting to see if they keep that seat.
I reckon it was more that it was a snap election than Labour not planning on taking the seat though.

In any case, he's not with Labour any more and he's not standing for re-election so hopefully it won't be too much of an issue in the polls.
 

Wamapoke

Member
Apr 11, 2018
907
The rulebook (note: PDF link) says this:



(I am snipping out lots of parts to include only relevant bits)

So if Swinson loses her seat:

- there will automatically be a leadership election, in which she is not entitled to stand
- if Swinson doesn't resign she will remain leader until that election is done
- if Swinson does resign, the parliamentary Acting Leader in the Commons will also lead the party. Who that is will depend on several things, including who gets elected
Thanks. I hope she gets asked what her party plan to do in the case of her losing her seat. A long way away from the days of telling everyone what they'll do in the event of them gaining 300+ MPs.
 

ronpontelle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
483
How many kids do you have?

Is the question I'm waiting for. It'd be great if they did a proper interview, it'd be hard to edit out their laughing.
What do your kids want for Christmas?

Johnson reels off a long list, they come back with "they'll be lucky if they get all those!", and he says "not really, it's only two presents each".
 

Temascos

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,768
As long as it narrows to something like 6 points or less in the polls come election day, it'll at least be a hung parliament. The way FPTP works does mean that seat allocations could get pretty crazy though.

If all else fails, I'll move into a Tory seat and be a thorn on their side. :P
 

Tommolb

Member
Oct 28, 2017
231
Leighton Buzzard, UK
Pretty much what I expect to see on 13th December TBH. All this fantasy about the polls narrowing etc is fooling a lot of people into thinking it won't end up like this and we'll magically end up with a hung parliament, but this ain't like the last election - people no longer chant JC's name at rally's, Boris isn't Teresa May and most people want Brexit over with and will believe the Tory lies about "Get Brexit done". Trump saying he doesn't want the NHS will convince most people JC is lying about the secret talks - job done, Tory landslide and a no deal Brexit next year.
 

gosublime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,292
I'dike to win an election just once. I was too young in 97, didn't care much due to being too involved in other stuff in 02 and then was in another country for 07. Since then I've voted Lib Dems to keep the Tories out in 2010 (!), voted for the alternative vote, to remain in the EU and Labour in General Elections and a mix of Labour and Green in Local Elections.

I'd just like to know what it feels to wake up and not think, oh god, not again.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,359
I do worry that the Tories ending parlia
I'dike to win an election just once. I was too young in 97, didn't care much due to being too involved in other stuff in 02 and then was in another country for 07. Since then I've voted Lib Dems to keep the Tories out in 2002 (!), voted for the alternative vote, to remain in the EU and Labour in General Elections and a mix of Labour and Green in Local Elections.

I'd just like to know what it feels to wake up and not think, oh god, not again.
I’m with you on that.
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
541
Pretty much what I expect to see on 13th December TBH. All this fantasy about the polls narrowing etc is fooling a lot of people into thinking it won't end up like this and we'll magically end up with a hung parliament, but this ain't like the last election - people no longer chant JC's name at rally's, Boris isn't Teresa May and most people want Brexit over with and will believe the Tory lies about "Get Brexit done". Trump saying he doesn't want the NHS will convince most people JC is lying about the secret talks - job done, Tory landslide and a no deal Brexit next year.
These are my current feelings as well. We need something crazy to happen in the next week to avoid a Tory majority, or some amazing tactical voting coordination.

I'm not going to worry too much over a YouGov poll of just over 1.5k people.
This poll is pretty much the average of all the polls right now - a 9pt lead with CONs at 43.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Nov 14, 2019
869
Fucksake.

So what is happening in comparison to 2017, these polls stating youth vote going down (so Labour) but Conservative overall polling remaining similar?

A hung Parliament was only ever the likely outcome, yet to be told we're still not in the ballpark for that is frustrating.

The SNP on 52 seats does seem like bullshit (the seat I am in turning yellow is NOT happening, but the poll above suggests it will).
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,070
Fucksake.

So what is happening in comparison to 2017, these polls stating youth vote going down (so Labour) but Conservative overall polling remaining similar?

A hung Parliament was only ever the likely outcome, yet to be told we're still not in the ballpark for that is frustrating.
I'm really perplexed as to why young people would be less likely to vote Labour in 2019 compared to 2017 as the pollsters continually suggest. Is a lot of the hype just gone? Because I'd think young people would be far more enthused to vote for Labour backing a second referendum than Labour backing Brexit.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Nov 14, 2019
869
I'm really perplexed as to why young people would be less likely to vote Labour in 2019 compared to 2017 as the pollsters continually suggest. Is a lot of the hype just gone? Because I'd think young people would be far more enthused to vote for Labour backing a second referendum than Labour backing Brexit.
I know, to the common brain you'd think youth turnout might even go up in 2019. This is why I thought the BBC were trying as hard as they are to suppress youth vote.

As I edited in above that poll suggesting SNP 52 and the seat I'm in changing from Tory is totally off. I think I'm just going to ignore all polls till the 12th lol. I think quite a lot of these polls don't have good sample sizes for Scotland.
 

solidussnaku

Member
Nov 29, 2017
1,371
Pretty much what I expect to see on 13th December TBH. All this fantasy about the polls narrowing etc is fooling a lot of people into thinking it won't end up like this and we'll magically end up with a hung parliament, but this ain't like the last election - people no longer chant JC's name at rally's, Boris isn't Teresa May and most people want Brexit over with and will believe the Tory lies about "Get Brexit done". Trump saying he doesn't want the NHS will convince most people JC is lying about the secret talks - job done, Tory landslide and a no deal Brexit next year.

They dont chant his fucking name? Are you for real???

There has already been many vids with rooms and crowds full if people chanting his name, namely a impromptu crowd of thousands outside on the fucking cold chanting his name when leaders question time was on last week.

Boris is indeed not Teresa may, she campaigned more then he did and had better ratings then he did when she launched the Ge WITH higher polls going in.

Most people want brexit sorted even though back to back elections since the ref had remain parties or soft brexit parties get more votes and/or beat the odds.

We have seen a continuous swing for labour across the board not just in polls, but in remainers flocking to them and important areas in the country going back to them. They look to be gaining and rallying the labour leavers too.

You're right, this isn't like 2017, labour has a much more enthused base and people donating record amounts to them:



 

nature boy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,926
Fucksake.

So what is happening in comparison to 2017, these polls stating youth vote going down (so Labour) but Conservative overall polling remaining similar?

A hung Parliament was only ever the likely outcome, yet to be told we're still not in the ballpark for that is frustrating.

The SNP on 52 seats does seem like bullshit (the seat I am in turning yellow is NOT happening, but the poll above suggests it will).
Yeah this is just a prediction based on a poll so YMMV but right now we're still in Tory majority


Not a pollster but I don't hear a lot of complaints regarding youth vote representation amongst those who analyze the polls
 

Rodelero

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,070
I know, to the common brain you'd think youth turnout might even go up in 2019. This is why I thought the BBC were trying as hard as they are to suppress youth vote.

As I edited in above that poll suggesting SNP 52 and the seat I'm in changing from Tory is totally off. I think I'm just going to ignore all polls till the 12th lol. I think quite a lot of these polls don't have good sample sizes for Scotland.
Electoral calculus is pretty much completely wank when it comes to specific details.

The part of the hypothetical GE loss I'm looking forward most to is the bizarre "Told you so" and "We won a vote so that proves we're right" and the "Why it's the left's fault that people voted for liars/racists" that we saw in 2016 after Trump and Brexit.
 

Dary

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,404
The English Wilderness
Pretty much what I expect to see on 13th December TBH. All this fantasy about the polls narrowing etc is fooling a lot of people into thinking it won't end up like this and we'll magically end up with a hung parliament, but this ain't like the last election - people no longer chant JC's name at rally's, Boris isn't Teresa May and most people want Brexit over with and will believe the Tory lies about "Get Brexit done". Trump saying he doesn't want the NHS will convince most people JC is lying about the secret talks - job done, Tory landslide and a no deal Brexit next year.
At the end of the day, a few percentage points overall won't make a difference if Labour is just shoring up support in its safe seats.

Too many (mostly middle-aged) people in neglected towns are clinging on to the delusion of Brexit.
 

AzorAhai

Member
Oct 29, 2017
985
Don't give up. Even if you have a busy life, challenge yourself and try to convince just 1 person. The last 10 days are the most important.
 

Ravensmash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,359
It does feel a bit more scary, now that the election is so close.

I’ve never really believed that a Labour majority is likely, but I was holding out hope for a hung parliament and all of its possibilities.

When the fuck do YouGov update their MRP?
 

Kalor

Resettlement Advisor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,849
We're probably fucked but there's still plenty of time. Still got the Friday debate coming up, Trump potentially going off script and even Johnsons This Morning interview which will reach people who'd never tune into the debates.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
7,181
At the end of the day, a few percentage points overall won't make a difference if Labour is just shoring up support in its safe seats.

Too many (mostly middle-aged) people in neglected towns are clinging on to the delusion of Brexit.
Yeah the leave vote swing is going to be killer. Sadly we really need to youth vote to turnout in record numbers but as things stand I'm not sure they will.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Nov 14, 2019
869
It does feel a bit more scary, now that the election is so close.

I’ve never really believed that a Labour majority is likely, but I was holding out hope for a hung parliament and all of its possibilities.

When the fuck do YouGov update their MRP?
Labour majority was NEVER happening, it was all about stopping the Tories and having some sort of one-off Brexit coalition to get us to a people's vote campaign. Then to somehow get that vote to scrapping Brexit.
 

FliXFantatier

Master of the Reality Stone
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,419
Los Angeles
Labour majority was NEVER happening, it was all about stopping the Tories and having some sort of one-off Brexit coalition to get us to a people's vote campaign. Then to somehow get that vote to scrapping Brexit.
I've not really considered this much. But lets say we get to that second referendum through a minority Labour government.
Then what. New GE? i don't see that being any less divisive than this one...
 

Audioboxer

Member
Nov 14, 2019
869
I've not really considered this much. But lets say we get to that second referendum through a minority Labour government.
Then what. New GE? i don't see that being any less divisive than this one...
One step at a time. Stopping Brexit is the main issue facing the country right now. After that, whatever happens, happens. The SNP couldn't support Labour on every vote and there would probably be some they would choose not to, so yeah, it would be a mess and most likely we'd need another GE.

Scottish MPs aren't much use at propping up any Government, only useful for individual votes.

But depending on how close it was, maybe Lib Dems (with a nose held) could form a proper coalition with Labour.

Lots and lots and lots of ifs, when the real first step is just stopping a Tory majority.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,403
Fwiw I think the silver lining of a Tory majority is it hopefully ensures a Labour one at the end of the term.

Then again, what kind of Labour that would be is certainly unclear. And if the Tories do actually jerrymander etc then we're probably fucked forever.