He is doing something for the Guardian, i think he helps out where he can.
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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)
- Thread starter Uzzy
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He is doing something for the Guardian, i think he helps out where he can.
Sure, but we have had big swings in both certainty to vote and how much of a demographic will vote already from other pollsters and surveys. Conistently swinging higheras we need it to be. I've already said the polling is all over the place. But indeed, the situation seems similar to 2 years ago. Records broken in favour of labour and this time remain parties.
With the poll, it seems kantar is an outlier. The metrics do seem the opposite of what they stated.
Polling stations have always been <5 mins from me. I've lived all over the south of England.
Right now it's literally outside my front door.
Right now it's literally outside my front door.
Hopefully trumps lies about not wanting the NHS won't work for those who would defend the tories no matter what. Especially with stuff like this immediately floating about.
Not really. The viral tweet saying "LOL they used 90% turnout" didn't correct for survey weighting and got the wrong answer (it was NOT assuming 90% turnout for 65+) and in their haste to deny any bad polls, no-one bothered to check the calculations.
However, IIRC the actual turnout used was still a little high for pensioners (low 80's, I think) and a bit low for millennials.
I wonder what will happen if we do get a hung parliament. We'll probably end up back at the polls before long and I don't know if Tories or Labour voters will have more "stamina" as we end up in a series of elections until one side can create a majority.
LibDems are probably over if that happens, but Labour would have to do a solid deal with the SNP to form a stable government and would probably lack a majority on "English" issues where Scottish MPs don't get a vote. I'd expect some shenanigans to get around that rule (tagging some national reforms onto mostly-English bills so the SNP can vote on it).
I also just saw in the kantar poll; only 48% of the under 25 correspondants said they are registered to vote. With 34% saying they aren't and 12% don't know (6% prefer not to say). This seems like a high number not being registered to me, so perhaps they didn't get the best sample of under 25s (they only asked 115).
Hopefully we get a new national yougov poll today to go with the london figures, will be good to see an updated MRP.
Thanks for the clarification. There's nothing to stop EVEL being reversed, right?
Yeah.
We've registered for postal votes out here in France. I wasn't sure of my status so put a message in with the email and they got back to be the next day saying all was confirmed. Received my postal vote about a week later.
My wife sent her email off the day after I did, and hasn't received a thing. After about a week she sent another email with a copy of the form asking them to confirm receipt, and she's still not received anything - no confirmation email, no human reply, no postal vote... It's shit.
Ian Watkins?
Ian Huntley?
Iain Duncan-Smith?
Ian Brady?
PSA: If there's an Ian in your life, watch your back.
Yeah we're on holiday from Friday until the day after the election, so while we've both had confirmation, starting to get worried that our postal votes haven't turned up yet. Apparently they can't do anything about missing ones until 5 working days before the election, so given our dates if they don't turn up we're SOOL
Funnily enough, the vast majority of Ian's I know are absolute arseholes 🤔
Oy, my brother's called Ian! I'll have you know he's a perfectly nice lad! Grr. :P
On that subject he's a civil servant who hates the Tories, hates Labour, voted Brexit but is socially liberal and concerned about climate change, poverty, etc. I have no idea how to sell anything to him and when I do explain stuff he gets annoyed that I'm "labouring the point" across. I get a bit like Rachel Maddow when it comes to explaining things which can put people off I suppose.
I forgot about him. No doubt he has some awful skeletons in his closet, as all Ians do.
To hold your baby, $40? W.T.F.?!!!
How do they even bill that? What's it for, the labour cost of someone carrying your child 2 feet? The extra 90 seconds you're occupying the room? HOLY SHIT.
I remember finding out about that a little while ago and being shocked at how blatant the money grabbing is in the US health system. Absolutely ridiculous.
Almost feels like extortion 'wanna hold your baby? Give us $40' lol
America.
But remember, Bernie Sanders is far-left and Obama says we need more centrism.
The media coverage over this whole thing has been moronic. They should just ask 'Has the US changed it's policy that foreign drug users should not be subsidised by American citizens paying 'full' price for drugs?' The answer is quite obviously no. So the US will seek to have us pay more for drugs. End of. But rather than look at factual reality, the media just loves to hunt out sound bytes and let everything devolve into a world of 'he said she said' without anyone in the public learning anything.
Let's hope Donald Tramp sees this and has his phone handy. 😂
Oh no, he's a grade A cunt and talks absolute shite.
Fair play to him for all the charity work though.
Still a cunt.
Still a cunt.
I personally completely and utterly trust Demonic Raab when he says Trump, out of good will, won't increase drug prices for the NHS to make a quick profit.
Go on Trump keep siding with the Tories.... It might actually make a difference (in helping everyone else.)
This article clears it up a bit, it's the cost of having another nurse present to watch the baby.
Not that that takes away the madness of the thing, I can't figure out how that invoice ended up at $13k, especially as they've charged for 79 units of 'DELIVERY C SECTION'. Assuming she didn't have 79 kids hiding in there, do they charge by the minute or something?
I think so, we certainly don't have anyone super local. I think our back up plan is to ask the in laws to come check if they've arrived during the week
This is what we need more of. Gold dust. Compare that to anything Johnson and his cronies have shat out.
I can't imagine ever seeing BoJo expressing a sincere position with such warmth. Really hope this clip gets shared around a lot.
Christ he sounds like he's just been caught red handed. It's more damning than him calmly saying that it is up for discussion. Fucking hell.
Compared with this, the difference is shocking.
Shows how much Corbyn has been vilified that anyone could prefer Bojo.
It's going to blow up, already at 45k in less then an hour.
It was a strong, genuine, very positive interview for him.
They are filling the media vacuum the cons have left.
So far Labour have been handling the NHS stuff really well, straight on any chance they have to show what liars the tories are.
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