Seems like labour's momentum from the last week or so has stopped, or at least slowed significantly. They need a big new breakthrough.
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UK General Election 12th December 2019 |OT1| Hindsight is 20/19 (Tory majority confirmed)
- Thread starter Uzzy
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Seems like labour's momentum from the last week or so has stopped, or at least slowed significantly. They need a big new breakthrough.
I reckon it was more that it was a snap election than Labour not planning on taking the seat though.
In any case, he's not with Labour any more and he's not standing for re-election so hopefully it won't be too much of an issue in the polls.
I'm not to worried, they are still having better days than the tories are, i'm sure they can grind a few more percentage points off the gap, then it's all about turnout.
reminds me of when lorraine of all people told jennifer arcuri what a waste of everyone's time it was to be on tv and say absolutely nothing.
They do sometimes go in hard on guests. It wouldn't be that surprising if they do go in on him, especially if he's dodging their questions.
It would also be a nice route to a bit of fame with Boris avoiding Neil, get him sweating and get some headlines.
Thanks. I hope she gets asked what her party plan to do in the case of her losing her seat. A long way away from the days of telling everyone what they'll do in the event of them gaining 300+ MPs.The rulebook (note: PDF link) says this:
(I am snipping out lots of parts to include only relevant bits)
So if Swinson loses her seat:
- there will automatically be a leadership election, in which she is not entitled to stand
- if Swinson doesn't resign she will remain leader until that election is done
- if Swinson does resign, the parliamentary Acting Leader in the Commons will also lead the party. Who that is will depend on several things, including who gets elected
What do your kids want for Christmas?
Johnson reels off a long list, they come back with "they'll be lucky if they get all those!", and he says "not really, it's only two presents each".
Well, the terrorist attack took a lot of peoples focus from politics for a few days. Things are likely to tighten again in the last few days as they have a tendency to do so.
Haha
Andrew Neil randomly appearing on numerous channels/shows in order to chase Boris would be an amusing side narrative for the election campaign though.
As long as it narrows to something like 6 points or less in the polls come election day, it'll at least be a hung parliament. The way FPTP works does mean that seat allocations could get pretty crazy though.
If all else fails, I'll move into a Tory seat and be a thorn on their side. :P
If all else fails, I'll move into a Tory seat and be a thorn on their side. :P
Pretty much what I expect to see on 13th December TBH. All this fantasy about the polls narrowing etc is fooling a lot of people into thinking it won't end up like this and we'll magically end up with a hung parliament, but this ain't like the last election - people no longer chant JC's name at rally's, Boris isn't Teresa May and most people want Brexit over with and will believe the Tory lies about "Get Brexit done". Trump saying he doesn't want the NHS will convince most people JC is lying about the secret talks - job done, Tory landslide and a no deal Brexit next year.
I'dike to win an election just once. I was too young in 97, didn't care much due to being too involved in other stuff in 02 and then was in another country for 07. Since then I've voted Lib Dems to keep the Tories out in 2010 (!), voted for the alternative vote, to remain in the EU and Labour in General Elections and a mix of Labour and Green in Local Elections.
I'd just like to know what it feels to wake up and not think, oh god, not again.
These are my current feelings as well. We need something crazy to happen in the next week to avoid a Tory majority, or some amazing tactical voting coordination.
This poll is pretty much the average of all the polls right now - a 9pt lead with CONs at 43.
Fucksake.
So what is happening in comparison to 2017, these polls stating youth vote going down (so Labour) but Conservative overall polling remaining similar?
A hung Parliament was only ever the likely outcome, yet to be told we're still not in the ballpark for that is frustrating.
The SNP on 52 seats does seem like bullshit (the seat I am in turning yellow is NOT happening, but the poll above suggests it will).
I'm really perplexed as to why young people would be less likely to vote Labour in 2019 compared to 2017 as the pollsters continually suggest. Is a lot of the hype just gone? Because I'd think young people would be far more enthused to vote for Labour backing a second referendum than Labour backing Brexit.
Why not? If sufficiently randomized, 1500 people is plenty for a representative sample.
I know, to the common brain you'd think youth turnout might even go up in 2019. This is why I thought the BBC were trying as hard as they are to suppress youth vote.
As I edited in above that poll suggesting SNP 52 and the seat I'm in changing from Tory is totally off. I think I'm just going to ignore all polls till the 12th lol. I think quite a lot of these polls don't have good sample sizes for Scotland.
They dont chant his fucking name? Are you for real???
There has already been many vids with rooms and crowds full if people chanting his name, namely a impromptu crowd of thousands outside on the fucking cold chanting his name when leaders question time was on last week.
Boris is indeed not Teresa may, she campaigned more then he did and had better ratings then he did when she launched the Ge WITH higher polls going in.
Most people want brexit sorted even though back to back elections since the ref had remain parties or soft brexit parties get more votes and/or beat the odds.
We have seen a continuous swing for labour across the board not just in polls, but in remainers flocking to them and important areas in the country going back to them. They look to be gaining and rallying the labour leavers too.
You're right, this isn't like 2017, labour has a much more enthused base and people donating record amounts to them:
Yeah this is just a prediction based on a poll so YMMV but right now we're still in Tory majority
Not a pollster but I don't hear a lot of complaints regarding youth vote representation amongst those who analyze the polls
Electoral calculus is pretty much completely wank when it comes to specific details.
The part of the hypothetical GE loss I'm looking forward most to is the bizarre "Told you so" and "We won a vote so that proves we're right" and the "Why it's the left's fault that people voted for liars/racists" that we saw in 2016 after Trump and Brexit.
At the end of the day, a few percentage points overall won't make a difference if Labour is just shoring up support in its safe seats.
Too many (mostly middle-aged) people in neglected towns are clinging on to the delusion of Brexit.
It does feel a bit more scary, now that the election is so close.
I've never really believed that a Labour majority is likely, but I was holding out hope for a hung parliament and all of its possibilities.
When the fuck do YouGov update their MRP?
I've never really believed that a Labour majority is likely, but I was holding out hope for a hung parliament and all of its possibilities.
When the fuck do YouGov update their MRP?
Yeah the leave vote swing is going to be killer. Sadly we really need to youth vote to turnout in record numbers but as things stand I'm not sure they will.
Labour majority was NEVER happening, it was all about stopping the Tories and having some sort of one-off Brexit coalition to get us to a people's vote campaign. Then to somehow get that vote to scrapping Brexit.
I've not really considered this much. But lets say we get to that second referendum through a minority Labour government.
Then what. New GE? i don't see that being any less divisive than this one...
One step at a time. Stopping Brexit is the main issue facing the country right now. After that, whatever happens, happens. The SNP couldn't support Labour on every vote and there would probably be some they would choose not to, so yeah, it would be a mess and most likely we'd need another GE.
Scottish MPs aren't much use at propping up any Government, only useful for individual votes.
But depending on how close it was, maybe Lib Dems (with a nose held) could form a proper coalition with Labour.
Lots and lots and lots of ifs, when the real first step is just stopping a Tory majority.
Fwiw I think the silver lining of a Tory majority is it hopefully ensures a Labour one at the end of the term.
Then again, what kind of Labour that would be is certainly unclear. And if the Tories do actually jerrymander etc then we're probably fucked forever.
Then again, what kind of Labour that would be is certainly unclear. And if the Tories do actually jerrymander etc then we're probably fucked forever.
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