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US Midterm Elections 2018 |OT| Babs is Surging
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
- Start date
That's almost entirely because of North Dakota and Tennessee. We're not completely dead in either, but they always were uphill climbs with how pro-Trump they are.
It's a very difficult map for Democrats in the Senate this year with very few Republicans in swing/blue-states up for reelection.
the Senate was never in realistic play, too many D seats to defend to go on the attack. It sucks, but I hope that they at least do not lose a seat.
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I don't think their projections are accurate. For example, in Texas they predict 40.6% turnout when 39.9% has already happened. Historically election day voting is significant and our last day of early voting was packed with 1+ hour lines. They're assuming a typical 52% women turnout when its know to be 54%. Polling methods do not capture young voters, which is up 500%.
Voting early tomorrow, heading to work, then I fly out on vacation! I will hear good or bad news while I'm in the sky. If the GOP keeps the house, i might have to jump out!
This is by far the dumbest thing I've read today.
EDIT: Also by far the most racist! Congrats.
I find it surprising that NY 19th is considered a toss up.. that's easily going to stay with John Faso.
Sheesh, someone tell this man about all the horrible shit Ben Carson, and Tim Scott are up to. Lets not even bring up people like Allan West and david Clarke.
Dear America, vote ya'll.
Sincerely,
The World
Also, when will do they generally call the winners? Same day?
Sincerely,
The World
Also, when will do they generally call the winners? Same day?
This almost sounds like something a Russian bot would say to fuel the fire.
Beto or Abrams...I need one of them to pull off the upset tomorrow.
And then Medicare for all passes and dems lose the house in 2022. And so the cycle begins new...
Voted from Japan. It was my first time voting. Although my state always vote blue, I wanted to participate instead of staying on the side lines.
There are 500+ elections. Won't know all of them probably for a few weeks. If Dems take the House by a lot, you will know by the night of. If Dems take the Senate, you won't know until Wednesday, because two or even three of the races will be within like a percent or two.
You invevitably will. Eventually. But probably not tomorrow.
But at least this time the Dems had everything during the 2021 redistricting.
We only voted during presidential ones. This is the first time viting in midterms for all of us becuase fuck republicans.
No, certainly not. The best thing you can say about Hogan is, well, he's not that bad for a Republican. Jealous has good ideas for our state, ideas that I support. Maryland would benefit under him more so than under Hogan, I don't question that even for a second.
But I'm also not a liberal *shrug*
Yeah I just read an article stating how most polls usually estimate significantly less demoncfat or young voters. So I'm optimistic
So what are the overall projected odds of Dems winning things overall? From what I've seen a house win seems likely and senate loss is also likely. If this is what happens how will this effect the balance of power? So for example if the judge nomination vote had happened with the likely outcome of this election would it have passed?
Anecdotal, but from my experience canvassing the past few weeks, the majority of people who answer the door are aware of the election and planning to vote straight Democrat (I'm only knocking on Dem doors, of course). I'm in a blue state though.
They'll probably be calling party control of the house and senate very late at night here. There's rare ultra close scenarios that might make it take days to know.
Projections start coming in at 7:00pm EST, and you can tell a lot by how quickly races get called. Like, if Donnelly gets projected as the winner at 7:15, it means he's probably way out performing his polls, which probably means the polls were underestimating democrats across the board.
There'll also be a lot of amateur projections between 6:00 and 7:00 when the count is coming in but reporters have an obligation to wait until all polls in the state closes. I recommend not listening to them.
Going off his list I'd add 20 plus more seats flipping plus the hold of MN-08. So that'd be D250+(Net D55+)
Senate is a lot tougher to call. I think Beto will win. I'm still predicting 52-48. Who those 52 are comprised of, I dunno but Beto will be there. I like Heidi's chances in ND. I think MO is the most likely to flip of the 3 listed as flipping (IN, MO, ND). WV and MT are holds. FL is probably the closest of the 3 LEAN D column which I don't think is that close (but Florida?) Kanye West is wrong so Taylor Swift must be right. TN flips. D3
Governor's seems right but those other 5 I think are within reach (In order of winning: GA, AK, NH, OK, SD). So Governor's will be somewhere between 10 and 15. I think it will be to the higher end of that spectrum. D13+
you know what, Dems should push for this in the House to unmask Trump and the GOP them for being dishonnest on the issue of healthcare and pre-existing conditions
I don't think this is accurate anymore with the past week of data we have. There's a legit shot at it now that wasn't there if we held the election a month ago.
Most current models have Democrats with about an 85% chance to take the House, and Republicans about an 80% chance to hold onto the senate... I'm sure some project higher, some project lower, and of course, it's all a guessing game and it's only as good as the data, but... those are the guesses. And, again, 85% chance doesn't mean 100% chance. Nate Silver, the person who runs the political polling/analysis website FiveThirtyEight constantly reminds people this... In 2016 we made the collective mistake of assuming 65% chance meant 100% chance. It doesn't. Silver makes the analogy, in an NFL game if a team takes a 1 TD lead going into the 4th quarter, on average they have a 75% chance of winning. Nobody should look at that 75% chance and then proceed to turn off the TV as if it's a done deal, yet that's what we often do with polling and polling data. We look at a 52/48 poll and pretend it's 100/0, and then the models based on that that suggest that a poll that close will result in a 60% chance for the leader to win... we turn that into 100% in our minds.
Speaking about Kavanaugh, yeah, the senate approves Supreme Court nominees, so let's say that these numbers work out to be true, then in that case, Republicans likely still would have confirmed Kavanaugh over Democrats. Although, hypothetically, let's say that Democrats somehow beat the odds more and took more control of the House than is projected, then that could give some moderate Republicans some pause during a future confirmation hearing, they might lean more moderately on divisive, unpopular issues knowing that their seat could be threatened come the next election.
How this effects the balance of power is in a few ways, but generally, whoever controls the House of Representatives controls committees, the agenda of the legislature, and ultimately, is a check on the power of the president and legislation. It does introduce some risk in that you're likely to have more threats of government shut down, or the President Veto'ing bills instead of signing them. But, on the flipside, if you have congressional majorities you have the power to launch more investigations because you control the committees that oversee those investigations. So, for instance, you can force individuals to testify publicly in front of the American people, which can bring to light more scandals or damage them politically. This can also backfire of course (for instance, backfired on Republicans who had Hillary Clinton testify about her private email server in ~2015, and it was widely perceived as a political stunt that embarrassed some Republicans while making Clinton look more in command).
Ultimately, a Democratic House and Republican Senate will have to compromise on legislation. It would effectively put an end to attempts by Republicans to, say, gut Obamacare or put financing into building a wall. Congress also holds the purse strings on the federal budget, so it allows Democrats to prevent Republicans from cutting spending in key social programs, or designate spending for other programs. Ultimately the president has to sign legislation that passes both chambers of Congress, though he also has the power to veto any bill and send them back to the legislature (which can override his veto, but it's rare, typically veto'ed bills get reworked or abandoned). But, the public generally has a negative impression of the Veto, and so if a president Vetos too many bills then it can reflect poorly on him.
Congress' power to investigate, though, might have the largest effect, especially with Mueller set to give a report to Congress on the nature of Russian meddling in the 2016 election. If Republicans controlled the Intelligence committees that oversee that report, the report could easily be buried, not released, or spun in some way to benefit the President. With Democrats in control of the House, that is less likely.
All I wanted to say. Surprise the world, bring us good news on Wednesday morning, ya'll can change the world for the better tomorrow!
Senate is going to come down to turnout and motivation in a big way. 538 basically forecasts it as 50/49 right now with Missouri as their could go either way state. Either way I expect a lot of fuckery tomorrow. I expect Trump and his ilk to try and raise a lot of conspiracy bullshit. I mean that's the whole purpose of the supposed hack investigation in Georgia. Laying the groundwork for fuckery