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US Midterm Elections 2018 |OT| Babs is Surging
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
- Start date
Yeah, that logic would have you voting for Ted Cruz over Beto O'Rourke, which would harm the very people I'm supposing the well-meaning POC voter wants to lift up.
Yeah i really wish the senate swing could be more dramatic but its looking unlikely
Got my ballot ready and I'm prepped for an early morning at the polls tomorrow. Then an entire day of avoiding all news and information as I worry about the state of our country and just how much further we could potentially fall while my friends and family look on and say "This is fine" either out of right wing ideals or issues that none of the candidates are "good enough" for them to vote for.
well I typically never have a reason to stream anything. I only ever use hulu. didn't know if it would tie in w/ cable packages or something. guess I should've added in a bit about free streams.
My wife just received a letter from our (supposed) county clerk stating that her voter registration is invalid and she cannot vote tomorrow. That makes no sense considering she has voted for at least 16 years now in this district. This smells a lot like voter suppression.
CBSN is the free online CBS stream. It's pretty mediocre production, but if you can't find a free stream of any of the cable ones, you can use them. Also, CBS, NBC and ABC are all gonna have coverage if you have an antenna for broadcast networks.
If none of those work and you really, really want to watch them, you can always do a quick free trial of like Youtube TV or Hulu TV or whatever and then cancel right away.
I'd also say the likelihood there aren't streams on YouTube for free (either legal or illegal) will be pretty low.
Yeah, I imagine everybody will have a stream.
Hope the Twitch UFC guy makes another appearance and is pretending to control Wolf Blitzer.
Thanks guys. Voting in CA-10, so hopefully we can get this seat flipped.
Illinois, McHenry county, which is very red. We are registered Democrat.
I checked out town's FB page and no one has post about this. If it is widespread I expect to see posts later tonight.
Is it perhaps not a legit letter? Like some GOP idiots trying to fool people?
So my kid ripped open my ballot envelope after I'd already sealed it, thinking it was a piece of mail we received. I'd already signed it and she didn't hurt the ballot itself so I taped it up and dropped it off. Hopefully they don't think someone tampered with it.
Washington is interesting, we have a senate seat up but the feeling is safe dem.
We have several congressional districts up but only 3 are leans. The 3rd, 5th And 8th. The 5th has been traditionally more red than the 3rd, but the 5th looks like it is in play.
The 8th leans very slightly blue.
We have several congressional districts up but only 3 are leans. The 3rd, 5th And 8th. The 5th has been traditionally more red than the 3rd, but the 5th looks like it is in play.
The 8th leans very slightly blue.
(xposting and modifying from PoliGAF)
Found a good way to capture why I'm suddenly more bullish on Beto and the Senate in a simpler way. I've been talking about "known unknowns" and the House pickup predictions having a very long tail where, in the event we win, there were a wide range of potential outcomes anywhere from just crossing the hurdle to a cataclysm for the GOP. We can do the polling, but modeling the raw numbers to resemble the electorate is virtually impossible when you don't have a clue what this year's electorate will look llike. It's basically been a big roulette wheel, albeit one where I was pretty sure we weren't losing the house.
538 has had us at like 82% to take the house and 18% to take the Senate forever, right? On a scale of 0-100 bad-good that accounts for a wide variety of polling errors, random events, etc. Prior to this week, our only real data point in this regard was VA completely blowing out for the Dems in 2017, but VA is Obama->Clinton country and sort of unrepresentative of the country.
I've thought the House was pretty wrapped up based on the unlikelihood of losing virtually all the tossups, so that would put me at looking at a 20-100 range for expected outcomes. That's a 22.5/77.5 chance. Still pretty low.
But what's changed with the way I'm seeing the election framing is that the things we're seeing (sort of like a Tropical Storm getting closer to impact and getting to its actual strength) make me think the actual expected outcome is likely in the 60-100 range. There are too many abnormal things happening here that are impossible to ignore when put together collectively. I think we're going to see a tail outcome- but I don't know the specificity of the degree.
So suddenly, you're actually looking at a 45/55 chance of Senate victory, instead of a 18/72 chance. And in poker, 45/55 is considered basically a coinflip
And it turns out now we're at 20% in 538's Senate forecast. 50/50.
Found a good way to capture why I'm suddenly more bullish on Beto and the Senate in a simpler way. I've been talking about "known unknowns" and the House pickup predictions having a very long tail where, in the event we win, there were a wide range of potential outcomes anywhere from just crossing the hurdle to a cataclysm for the GOP. We can do the polling, but modeling the raw numbers to resemble the electorate is virtually impossible when you don't have a clue what this year's electorate will look llike. It's basically been a big roulette wheel, albeit one where I was pretty sure we weren't losing the house.
538 has had us at like 82% to take the house and 18% to take the Senate forever, right? On a scale of 0-100 bad-good that accounts for a wide variety of polling errors, random events, etc. Prior to this week, our only real data point in this regard was VA completely blowing out for the Dems in 2017, but VA is Obama->Clinton country and sort of unrepresentative of the country.
I've thought the House was pretty wrapped up based on the unlikelihood of losing virtually all the tossups, so that would put me at looking at a 20-100 range for expected outcomes. That's a 22.5/77.5 chance. Still pretty low.
But what's changed with the way I'm seeing the election framing is that the things we're seeing (sort of like a Tropical Storm getting closer to impact and getting to its actual strength) make me think the actual expected outcome is likely in the 60-100 range. There are too many abnormal things happening here that are impossible to ignore when put together collectively. I think we're going to see a tail outcome- but I don't know the specificity of the degree.
So suddenly, you're actually looking at a 45/55 chance of Senate victory, instead of a 18/72 chance. And in poker, 45/55 is considered basically a coinflip
And it turns out now we're at 20% in 538's Senate forecast. 50/50.
Good luck all.
I'm not voting (because I'm a Brit) but let's hope that this election restores some normality.
Go vote.
I'm not voting (because I'm a Brit) but let's hope that this election restores some normality.
Go vote.
I wonder if that is there tactic, throw up so much about voter suppression that voters would just say screw it and NOT vote. Which would be horrible
I think this was my first midterm I actually voted in, I early voted yesterday. This is in a major Florida county that unfortunately swung red in 2016. The good news is the polling place was absolutely packed, and was busier on a Sunday around 4pm than it actually was for the 2016 presidential Election Day. Anecdotally from my observation, there seemed to be a really high turnout of young people and minorities (I was honestly expecting mostly white seniors) so I'm hoping for the best here in FL.
I'm not checking anything until Wednesday morning. I don't want the stress.
I going to put a bag over my head and vote for Bob Menendez tomorrow.
This lesser of two evils political system sucks.
This lesser of two evils political system sucks.
I was hoping for good weather in NJ but its going to be rainy and shitty tomorrow. It seems like a incredibility stupid reason not to vote but it could have an impact.
Going after work before I hit the gym. We've made it through another election season everyone! No more endless ads everywhere!!!
Going after work before I hit the gym. We've made it through another election season everyone! No more endless ads everywhere!!!
I just sat in line with my family for 1.5 hours to cast my vote early. When I left, the line was longer than when I arrived! (IL District 6)
She is, and she's bringing documentation about her voting record. The county's website says she is registered.
I'm gonna need to wash my hands and then a nice long soaking shower at the gym. Fuck you, you have endless hot water and I will need it all.
