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US Midterm Elections 2018 |OT| Babs is Surging

Oct 25, 2017
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Kinda pointless to speculate about the electoral college without having any polls or any knowledge about the race whatsoever (aside from the GOP candidate of course).
This election was 100% a referendum on Trump. You saw state level races breaking literally on his approval rating in many spots, flipping R->D or D->R as they nationalized.

If this pattern continues it's hard to see an outcome where he actually has a path to 270 vs a candidate with a positive approval rating.
 
Nov 7, 2017
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The harris/beto thing is hard to say which way the right order would be.

Beto has more charisma and would probably draw more donations and his campaign game is unmatched. He's also pretty left in terms of US politics but is also a white male which may appeal more to shitty states.

Harris is much more accomplished in politics and legislation though and rallies the base by being a left woman POC. Doesn't have as much draw as Beto yet and I'm not sure how her campaigning is but I did see her show up to several other races this cycle to sponsor candidates. As a VP she'll also know more about the senate and probably be more efficient if it comes down to a tight vote.

Idk

There's pros and cons to having either one as president or VP lol
 
Dec 25, 2017
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Maine Republican party throwing a shit fit and lying their asses off about unsecured ballots boxes because they know once ranked voting kicks in they are more than likely having their house seat flipped.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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America
I love that graphic. Very easy to grasp.

The Legit 2020 people are
Harris, booker, Beto unless everyone agrees to have him as VP, Gavin Newsom,

Nobody over 70 who looks like they could die a year into office
Booker sends off red flags. Dude has a history of cozying up to rich folks, grandstanding and he hasn't done anything to impress me when he had the chance.
Those Supreme Justice hearings? Kamala harris and the Hawaiian lady were the only dems that performed well.

I've seen Gavin on Bill Maher and he is way too "city slicker" for national office. He wouldn't connect with a lot of people.

Beto and Harris are my finalists.

If I had to pick my heart, I'd pick Kamala because she's competent, brave and 100% progressive.

If I put on my political operative hat, I think Beto has the best chance. He's tall, good smile, genuine, likable, from the midwest, and energizes key demographics. He brings Dems together and he's not a centrist.
 

Xe4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,402
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twitter.com
This election was 100% a referendum on Trump. You saw state level races breaking literally on his approval rating in many spots, flipping R->D or D->R as they nationalized.

If this pattern continues it's hard to see an outcome where he actually has a path to 270 vs a candidate with a positive approval rating.
Ehh maybe. But presidential elections tend to be more in favor of the presidential candidate's party more than the midterms. It'll be a lot closer than 2012, but so long as the economy stays good Trump stays a damn decent chance. Really depends on what candidate we choose, and a million other factors too.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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Beto and Harris are my finalists.

If I had to pick my heart, I'd pick Kamala because she's competent, brave and 100% progressive.

If I put on my political operative hat, I think Beto has the best chance. He's tall, good smile, genuine, likable, from the midwest, and energizes key demographics. He brings Dems together and he's not a centrist.
There is plenty of time for republicans to dig up or create dirt on O'Rourke. A sexual assault accusation is probably in it's early planning phase. 2020 is going to be something else.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Phoenix
There is plenty of time for republicans to dig up or create dirt on O'Rourke. A sexual assault accusation is probably in it's early planning phase. 2020 is going to be something else.
They tried with the project veritas nonsense claiming he was funding the caravan. It didn't work, but is a sample of what they will try to do.
 

Xe4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,402
0
twitter.com
There is plenty of time for republicans to dig up or create dirt on O'Rourke. A sexual assault accusation is probably in it's early planning phase. 2020 is going to be something else.
I doubt any mainstream Republican would try to falsely accuse Beto of sexual assault. When it comes to light it was fake (and it does tend to come to light, cause word gets out people were paid off or asked to lie or w/e) that'd kill any chances Trump (and anyone involved in the conspiracy) has.

Not saying it won't happen, but if it does it'll be from crazy idiots like Wohl and the like. No mainstream GOP would get near it.

More likely is them to try to make up (or not object to) wild, totally unsupported shit like he's raping kids in the basement of a pizza place or funding MS-13 (or w/e). That'll drive up the base, but not much else beyond that.
 
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Mar 21, 2018
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I doubt any mainstream Republican would try to falsely accuse Beto of sexual assault. When it comes to light it was fake (and it does tend to come to light, cause word gets out people were paid off or asked to lie or w/e) that'd kill any chances Trump (and anyone involved in the conspiracy) has.
The goal wouldn't actually be huting Beto though. The goal would be dismissing sexual assault claims in general.
 
Nov 7, 2017
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Set aside the heart.

Whoever has the best chance of winning. I really hate to say it but nominating a woman of color this time may not be for the best. Right? I mean, my heart tells me women and minorities would flock to Harris, but 2016 and 2018 have quashed that idea.
 

Xe4

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,402
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twitter.com
The goal wouldn't actually be huting Beto though. The goal would be dismissing sexual assault claims in general.
Well maybe. Kinda pointless though, cause anyone seriously supporting Trump already dismisses sexual assault allegations, or at the very least don't care enough about them not to vote for Trump. Shit, they got through Kavanaugh by making it about "me too" instead of a SCOTUS justice having to be seriously investigated because of potential crimes in his past.

Set aside the heart.

Whoever has the best chance of winning. I really hate to say it but nominating a woman of color this time may not be for the best. Right? I mean, my heart tells me women and minorities would flock to Harris, but 2016 and 2018 have quashed that idea.
I'm not saying it doesn't matter, because obviously having a woman of color on the ticket will effect things. Too many racists and sexists out there not to. But if Harris is charismatic enough and a good enough campaigner it really shouldn't matter (see no further than Obama for this). Choose a candidate for what they represent to you, not what others may hate them for.

That said, I'm still voting for Beto assuming he runs (at the moment, my mind may change). Not cause he's a white dude, but he just comes off to me as the best chance we have. He also gives me a lot of hope for politics, which is something I think a lot of people are hungry for right now, and would serve as an effective antidote for Trump's fear, I think. Plus, he's a moderate and I am too : p
 
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Oct 27, 2017
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Set aside the heart.

Whoever has the best chance of winning. I really hate to say it but nominating a woman of color this time may not be for the best. Right? I mean, my heart tells me women and minorities would flock to Harris, but 2016 and 2018 have quashed that idea.
There’s this guy name Barack Hussein Obama. He shouldn’t run either.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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8 years of war and a crashing economy helped. Trump’s gonna be playing 2020 on easy mode (if Mueller comes up short).
He still won in 2012 soundly. I know the environment isn’t gonna be the same nor can most candidates match in quality. There was also a build up of racial resentment that Trump exploited. I just don’t think we should limit ourselfs when we have a reality TV star as president.
 
Oct 29, 2017
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Whoever the candidate is needs broad appeal in the midwest. We need to pay attention to who is winning the rust-belt states in the primary and pay heed.

If we nominate a candidate that doesn't play there, we are not going to win the whitehouse.

Long term dems need to work on NC, GA and AZ flips because they will replace the midwest "firewall" that collapsed, but we aren't there yet. We have shown we *can* flip NC and AZ in the past. We just need to keep working on it... and PHX, ATL, Charlotte and RDU need to keep growing.

The 5 large Texas metros continuing to grow at exponential rates is also good. The demographic shift that is going to turn Texas blue isn't hispanic voters, it's the massive growth of the Urban demo. Bezos should have stuck HQ2 in one of the NC, GA or TX finalists and pinged the states the good guys side.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Phoenix
Richard Ojeda just announced his candidacy for President.
https://voteojeda.com/

I like the guy's passion but in my opinion he doesn't have strongs views or a strong platform.
he made up the largest gap in the midterms, but ya I dont think he will get very far.
He's going to get crushed imo. He should have tried for another run at a house seat or maybe a senate run against Shelley Moore Capito's seat.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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He still won in 2012 soundly. I know the environment isn’t gonna be the same nor can most candidates match in quality. There was also a build up of racial resentment that Trump exploited. I just don’t think we should limit ourselfs when we have a reality TV star as president.
Obama was a once in a generation (if not half century) politician. You shouldn't expect to see someone so skilled at speaking/etc again. (and its a lot easier to get re-elected than elected the first time, as long as you don't royally screw up)
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Whenever the next president comes in - election reform must be a priority.
They shouldn't run on that. Cause it could be easily be twisted to: "They're trying to rig future elections!"

Like, tell me you wouldn't be thinking about that if a Republican said they're running on "election reforms".
 

DukeBlue

Banned
Member
Nov 6, 2017
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Kamala Harris has no kids and an interracial marriage.
Beto O'Rourke has a wife, two sons and one daughter.

I wonder how significant this is for voters.
Kamala is a stunning woman, wow.

Anyways, I think the answer to that question is pretty obvious.

I have a question, do you think if Beto runs, the GOP will bring up his multiple arrests when he was younger? Even if they were super minor offenses, the GOP will mostly likely milk it dry
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Atlanta GA
It just bugs me that in order to stop the bleeding and help push things toward a more progressive electorate, it feels at this point that we need a white dude at the top of the ticket. I want Harris/Beto but I have no idea if we'd be better off the other way around.

My dream would be Biden/Harris in 2020 with Biden planning to serve only one term. And Harris/Beto in 2024. That seems pretty unrealistic though.
 
Sep 16, 2018
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They did choose a dem governor
Still not a sign of the state going blue for federal stuff. WV used to mostly be democratic governors and state legislatures and mostly voted for Republican presidential candiates (other than Bill Clinton). The republicans in those states are the Blue Dogs that are pretty much light republicans (like Joe Manchin). I doubt we see a Democratic nominee like Bill Clinton that could appeal to them ever again.
 
Oct 26, 2017
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Kamala is a stunning woman, wow.

Anyways, I think the answer to that question is pretty obvious.

I have a question, do you think if Beto runs, the GOP will bring up his multiple arrests when he was younger? Even if they were super minor offenses, the GOP will mostly likely milk it dry
It would be funny if they make a big deal of it when they ignore Trump's record.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Utah
Just curious has this...

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/12/6670...ing-comment-roils-mississippi-runoff-election

In a video posted on Twitter over the weekend, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi is seen complimenting a supporter by saying, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be on the front row." Hyde-Smith, who is white, is the appointed incumbent locked in a runoff for her Senate seat with Democratic challenger Mike Espy, a former congressman and U.S. agriculture secretary who is African-American.
Espy's campaign calls Hyde-Smith's comments "reprehensible" and says they have no place in political discourse.

"We need leaders, not dividers, and her words show that she lacks the understanding and judgment to represent the people of our state," said Espy campaign spokesman Danny Blanton in a statement.

Mississippi has a tortured history of racially motivated killings. According to the NAACP, Mississippi had 581 lynchings between 1882 and 1968, more than any other state. The state's population has the highest percentage of African-Americans of any state, 37 percent according to the last census.

"Hyde-Smith's decision to joke about 'hanging,' in a state known for its violent and terroristic history toward African-Americans is sick," said NAACP President and CEO Derrick Johnson in a statement to NPR. "To envision this brutal and degenerate type of frame during a time when Black people, Jewish People and immigrants are still being targeted for violence by White nationalists and racists is hateful and hurtful."

During an appearance on CNN, Espy was asked if the comment was racist.

"All I know is we need leaders now here in 2018 that will bring us together," Espy replied. "My campaign is a campaign that tries to reach across the racial chasm, reach across the party chasm and bring us together."

...had any measurable impact on the Mississippi race. I know Espy is doomed but has there been any kind of dip for Hyde-Smith whatsoever?
 
Oct 25, 2017
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CA also flipped two long time republican Central Valley districts in the State Senate (in favor of two Hispanic women, no less). Gives the state a democratic supermajority in both the state senate and state assembly, in addition to democratic Gov in Gavin Newsome. Come try us, you orange fuck.