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US PoliERA 2018 |OT10| McConnell is "mule piss"

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Stinkles

Stinkles

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,459
RustyNails said:
It kinda reminds me of Linda McMahon's senate bid. Didn't she spend like a $100m of her own money and still lose by 10 points against Blumenthal?
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Sometimes people who are just awful and have zero charisma and zero chance of winning look at Ted Cruz's face and manner and think, well actually maybe I have a GREAT chance!
 

Deleted member 8257

Oct 26, 2017
24,586
Joe said:
So, I've changed my mind on the Warren stuff.

Early in the day, the thread in the OT had takes about how this single event essentially disqualified her from the Presidency and I thought that was dumb. It seemed to me like a bunch of people over reacting because what they wanted to see was a Dem responding to Trump with a punch in the face, and instead she took the attacks in good faith and tried to respond. I didn't think her response would seriously fix anything, and obviously Trump would never change, but I didn't really see what the big deal was, or why people were freaking out. It seemed inconsequential and not illustrative of anything.

But, now that I've read the statement by the Cherokee Nation, I've changed my mind. She fucked up, and it reflects really poorly on her. Making a mistake is one thing. I don't blame her for believing the stories her parents told her, and clinging too tightly to them. I'm sure she was trying to do it out of respect, and didn't realize that the Cherokee Nation might see it differently. Lord knows I've made similar mistakes. She made a series of mistakes that I could understand.

But how the hell do you decide to release your Big Response to the issue, and not even consult with or get buy-in from the Cherokee Nation first? Make a fun phone call. Find out what they think, and what you can do to make things better. You'd have to be pretty dense not to try that. Otherwise, you might end up...in exactly this situation!
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I'm sorry but she does not need Cherokee Nation's permission to do what she thinks is right. It's her heritage as well, regardless of what anyone thinks.
 
FatPuppy

FatPuppy

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Jun 18, 2018
519
sangreal said:
iDDsHC7.gif
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Thanks. I have a feeling this will be getting some use.
 
Ogodei

Ogodei

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,256
Coruscant
Pixieking said:
Not Biden? Clinton barely lost it to Trump (fractions of a percentage point), but it seems like Biden would do better than Warren in the state, especially as he'd probably have Obama stumping for him and the coattails of the auto bailout.
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Basing it more on Bernie's win and assuming that Warren is going to eat Bernie's lunch for the most part (sans Montana, his home state Vermont, and West Virginia which always throws in a troll vote).
 
TheRuralJuror

TheRuralJuror

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,504
BoboBrazil

BoboBrazil

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
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18,765
Autodidact said:
There have been multiple high-quality polls, taken before and after Kavanaugh, showing him down 8 or so.
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Polls fluctuate from 3-9 down, but the polls in this race can't be trusted since they are usually likely voters and wouldn't account for someone like Beto running who is getting new voters. If Beto gets Democrats to vote in TX he wins. Only 1 week until early voting starts so the mission is to get as many people to the polls as possible in those 2 weeks.
 
BoboBrazil

BoboBrazil

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This is an interesting aspect. Maybe Beto needs to get down in the mud and run some nasty ads. He's really refused to do that so far.
 
SatelliteOfLove

SatelliteOfLove

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,966
South Carolina
patientzero said:
From over a year ago -

https://www.voanews.com/a/native-am...e-over-trump-pocahontas-comments/4140139.html







Could it be that indigenous peoples don't get much media? Could it be that you don't hear their voices even when they speak, until a day like today when they're words are deemed meaningful? Why do we constantly make this attribution error, that because we don't hear a particular voice we somehow assume that it is willingly silent?

I realize this is a whole clusterfuck of competing notions, prejudices, desires, fears, and more, but I think there's a way for us to all hold the dozen or more thoughts regarding Warren's actions, and their good and bad implications, simultaneously. Here's what I can come up with and I'll add this is numbered for the sake of readability. There is no hierarchy.

1. This is definitely a political move, either to strike at Trump, deflate a criticism in anticipation of a run, or both. It's not inherently good or bad, it just is as far as politics go.

2. Trump is a raging racist/ethnicist who exploited a really pointless but definitely despicable bit of bullshit. This is birtherism of another kind.

3. Warren receives tons of sexist criticism and that shouldn't be denied.

4. Warren receives a ton of undue criticism by progressives for not backing their ostensible savior and that shouldn't be denied.

5. Conservative shitbags will pounce on anything they perceive as vulnerable.

6. Warren is not just a capable politician, policy maker, lawyer, professor, and more but exemplary in many ways. She is thoughtful, bases her views on empirical evidence, and can present nuanced, academic reasoning for those views, which is to be commended in any era of politics, let alone this one.

7. For the same reasons in point 6, she likely plays much better among those of us who pay attention to wonkish policy making, but there are legitimate questions about how this plays to a larger electorate and her ability to conform to those idiotic standards.

8. She is entitled, as we all are, to her heritage and her family's conception of it. The video she released about her family speaks admirably to this and reflects many families from her region and across many areas of the United States and other countries whose indigenous peoples were persecuted, often came into contact in myriad ways with other cultures, were often forced to deny or hide that contact, and speak to larger issues with the treatments and histories of those indigenous peoples.

9. Warren's story fits into a larger narrative about the intersection of native and non-native peoples, and how the latter have exoticized the former for their own purposes, even if Warren herself isn't doing so.

10. We should listen to indigenous peoples about their views on situations which force them to confront those treatments and histories. There are a lot of awful things being said about the value of native peoples' voices today and it's not okay.

11. If this were a conservative politician doing the exact same thing, we would raise bloody hell with many thinkpieces about the issue and Samantha Bee, John Oliver, and others would make comedic hay of it.

12. In a week this will largely be forgotten.

Did I miss any?
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13. Auburn Orban exploits it cuz, even though he looks horrid for it, it's still better than getting owned on the Kashoggi assassination, or the Dow, or the GCB, or tax fraud investigations, or that he's driving women away from the GOP, but also oddly that it overshadows the Stormy suit getting thrown out.

Wonderment said:
Maddow's show focusing on Native Americans in North Dakota and their affect on the vote that could decide which party has the majority in the Senate. They don't have IDs with street addresses, and election shenanigans are suddenly requiring street addresses on IDs in order to validate provisional votes. She had focused a while back on Native Americans in Alaska with Murkowski and called that situation correctly before it generated the lone Republican No vote on Kavanaugh.

In ND they are trying to identify/create (yes they can do that) street addresses and staff tribal officials at every polling place. The guest noted they could request a street address from the 911 system, so this shouldn't be such a problem.
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Good stuff. Rach making lemonade out of lemons like a good pundit should rather than *puff puff pass*.

Royalan said:
Please tell me I'm missing something here.

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Oh nothing, just more defining deviancy down.
 
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
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Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
The current crop of Siena/NYT polls seem pretty good for us, although they could very well be outliers in the opposite direction.
 

Deleted member 8257

Oct 26, 2017
24,586
BoboBrazil said:


This is an interesting aspect. Maybe Beto needs to get down in the mud and run some nasty ads. He's really refused to do that so far.
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Aren't there Dem groups doing negative advertising? The one with the pissed off old guy, "fire Ted Cruz".Speaking of which, he has a new one out LOL

 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
I get why candidates don't wanna go on the attack more in swing states or districts. Especially when 3rd parties will happily air negative ads for you for free.

I wish it was different but I also wish voters were different.
 
Autodidact

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Palin is disgusting. To do that not just to a child with a disability, but to your own.

Hateful, hateful, hateful.
 
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis


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I'm hearing rumblings that this new Voter ID law may backfire on the GOP. North Dakota tribes are mobilizing.
 
Kaitos

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,707
So right now, Democrats have an 84.1% chance of winning the House in the 538 model. We need a net gain of 23 seats to take the House. Here is where everything stands:

Solid D flip

IA01 (Finkenauer/Blum)
NJ02 (open, VanDrew/Grossman)
PA05 (open, Gay Scanlon/Kim)
PA06 (open, Houlahan/McCauley)
PA07 (open, Wild/Nothstein)
PA17 (Lamb/Rothfus)

Likely D flip

CA49 (open, Levin/Harkey)
CO06 (Crow/Coffman)
FL27 (open, Shalala/Salazar)
MI11 (open, Stevens/Epstein)
MN02 (Craig/Lewis)
MN03 (Phillips/Paulsen)
NJ11 (open, Sherrill/Webber)
VA10 (Wexton/Comstock)

Lean D flip

CA10 (Harder/Denham)
CA25 (Hill/Knight)
CA45 (Porter/Walters)
CA48 (Rouda/Rohrabacher)
IA03 (Axne/Young)
KS03 (Davids/Yoder)
NJ03 (Kim/MacArthur)
NJ07 (Malinowski/Lance)
NY22 (Faso/Brindisi)

Likely R flip

MN08 (open, Radinovich/Stauber)

That's a net gain of 22 seats before we get to the Tossups.

Tossup flip, R->D

FL26 (Mucarsel Powell/Curbelo)
KS02 (open, Davis/Watkins)
KY06 (McGrath/Barr)
ME02 (Golden/Poliquin)
MI08 (Slotkin/Bishop)
NC09 (open, McCready/Harris)
NY19 (Delgado/Tenney)
PA01 (Wallace/Fitzpatrick)
VA05 (open, Cockburn/Riggleman)

Tossup flip, D->R

MN01 (open, Feehan/Hagerdorn)

This would be a net gain of 8 seats.

Tossups, not flips in the 538 model (this doesn't include TX32, which is Allred/Sessions because Sessions faced a Libertarian in 2016 and won by about 50 points, which gives him strange fundamentals. This is a flip in the Lite model).

CA39 (open, Cisneros/Kim)
CO03 (Mitsch Bush/Tipton)
IL12 (Kelly/Bost)
IL14 (Underwood/Hultgren)
MI07 (Driskell/Walberg)
NM (open, Torres Small/Herrell)
TX07 (Pannill Fletcher/Culberson)
UT04 (McAdams/Love)
VA07 (Spanberger/Brat)
WA08 (open, Schrier/Rossi)* fundraising not in yet, will shift a lot

This is 10 seats.

By this model, Dems are in an extremely good position heading into the final 3 weeks of the election.
 
Drakeon

Drakeon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,275
TheDestructiveSquirrel said:
You guys really need better politicians, jfc
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I still earnestly believe that most of this is Fox News fault. If we didn't have a propaganda network propping up and pushing everyone to the right, there wouldn't be this blind adherence to Trump and the need to defend the indefensible time and again. Most of them know that he's an imbecile, they are just too craven to admit it and lose their job. That and Citizen's United has created an awfully bad political climate for the US.
 
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