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US PoliERA 2018 |OT10| McConnell is "mule piss"

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Autodidact

Autodidact

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Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Potentially big Senate news:

Senator Kennedy from LA is considering resigning from his seat to run against John Bel Edwards in the gubernatorial race next year. He'll announce by December 1.

The governor gets to make an interim appointment until a special election.

The governor is a Democrat, meaning we'd have an additional seat at least until the conclusion of the special election.

Color me optimistic, but I think Mitch Landrieu could win a low-turnout special election to finish the term.

EDIT: He might not resign unless he's elected. He's not up until 2022, and LA doesn't have resign-to-run laws, as far as I can see.
 
Feep

Feep

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Oct 25, 2017
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Question: with regard to the 2020 census and the redistricting process, will the results of the 2020 election come into play? Or is it purely the makeup of Congress after this November?
 
Clowns

Clowns

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,868
Feep said:
Question: with regard to the 2020 census and the redistricting process, will the results of the 2020 election come into play? Or is it purely the makeup of Congress after this November?
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Redistricting is done locally, so it'll come down to who's the Governor, who controls the state legislatures, who controls the courts, redistricting commissions, ect. Upper chambers typically have longer terms, so winning those will be useful, as would winning Governorships in especially large states like Michigan and Florida, and breaking the Republican legislative supermajority in North Carolina.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting_commission < useful map
 
JayC3

JayC3

bork bork
Administrator
Oct 25, 2017
3,857
Feep said:
Question: with regard to the 2020 census and the redistricting process, will the results of the 2020 election come into play? Or is it purely the makeup of Congress after this November?
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My understanding is that the 2020 census affects how many federal congressional House representatives are apportioned to each state (so states that have a net gain in population may get more representatives, while states that lose population may lose some). These will first affect the 2022 election.

However, the districts that are drawn after the 2020 census are in large part based on which party has control at the state government level (assuming no independent redistricting). So we want, at the very least, as many Democratic governors as possible because they have veto powers over maps that the state legislatures draw (greatly reducing the ability of Republicans to gerrymander, esp. in red states). Democratic state legislatures are also very good to have. Both the 2018 elections and the 2020 elections are important because gubernatorial elections are happening in both years, though this year's is arguable more so because 36 states are up and it's a good environment for Democrats.

Here are some good resources on this topic:
http://www.brennancenter.org/analys...rawing-congressional-and-state-district-lines
https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/redistricting
 
PKrockin

PKrockin

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Oct 25, 2017
5,260
O'Keefe's EXPLOSIVE BOMBSHELL that aired on Hannity tonight, as summarized by Hannity's website:

Shocking new footage released by James O'Keefe and Project Veritas continues to expose the stunning length Democratic lawmakers are willing to go to retake Congress; revealing Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's desperate attempts to mislead North Dakota voters.

The explosive video shows campaign staffers admitting the left-wing politician routinely conceals her true positions on issues including the impeachment of President Trump, immigration, the border wall, and more.

"It's an election year for her. She's being careful about pissing people off, and … said basically like, after the election, if and when she gets re-elected, she's going to be super liberal," admitted one staffer.

"I don't like that you took the Obama poster down," said one undercover journalist.

"It's because the press was here. When Trump was here… the day that Trump was, we had press in here because we had a lot of volunteers. So we take it down when the press comes," added another.

Watch the stunning footage above.


itsfuckingnothing.gif
 
DinosaurusRex

DinosaurusRex

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,953
These your _______ name memes could be a lethal social engineering / hacking vector.

"Your robot name is your mothers maiden name followed by the last 4 digits of your SS#"
 
Feep

Feep

Lead Designer, Iridium Studios
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,602
ClownsAreATen said:
Redistricting is done locally, so it'll come down to who's the Governor, who controls the state legislatures, who controls the courts, redistricting commissions, ect. Upper chambers typically have longer terms, so winning those will be useful, as would winning Governorships in especially large states like Michigan and Florida, and breaking the Republican legislative supermajority in North Carolina.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting_commission < useful map
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Click to shrink...

JayC3 said:
My understanding is that the 2020 census affects how many federal congressional House representatives are apportioned to each state (so states that have a net gain in population may get more representatives, while states that lose population may lose some). These will first affect the 2022 election.

However, the districts that are drawn after the 2020 census are in large part based on which party has control at the state government level (assuming no independent redistricting). So we want, at the very least, as many Democratic governors as possible because they have veto powers over maps that the state legislatures draw (greatly reducing the ability of Republicans to gerrymander, esp. in red states). Democratic state legislatures are also very good to have. Both the 2018 elections and the 2020 elections are important because gubernatorial elections are happening in both years, though this year's is arguable more so because 36 states are up and it's a good environment for Democrats.

Here are some good resources on this topic:
http://www.brennancenter.org/analys...rawing-congressional-and-state-district-lines
https://www.brennancenter.org/issues/redistricting
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Thank you!
 
Greigor the FellHand

Greigor the FellHand

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Oct 26, 2017
12,125
gov. Kaish just fired the agriculture sec. Because the sec said he didn't want to protect the lake from fertilizer run off.

Kasich said protecting and bettering lake Erie is paramount.

good on him
 
Greigor the FellHand

Greigor the FellHand

Member
Oct 26, 2017
12,125
gov. Kaish just fired the agriculture sec. Because the sec said he didn't want to protect the lake from fertilizer run off.

Kasich said protecting and bettering lake Erie is paramount.

good on him
 
Y2Kev

Y2Kev

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,863
WaPo:

How the migrant caravan became so big and why it's continuing to grow
As the group grows, its beginnings are being scrutinized: How did more than 5,000 migrants from across Central America find one another? The answer from many migrants is that they had wanted to leave for months or years, and then — in a Facebook post, a television program, a WhatsApp group — they saw an image of the group and decided to join.

Y'all thought I was kidding about the CARAVAN!!! stuff but it's amazing how much footage the media can get out of showing 5,000 slowly moving people all day on TV.
 
Ohnonono

Ohnonono

Member
Oct 29, 2017
780
Holy Terra
I always catch a glance of FOX at the gym. This morning was a bowl of "San Francisco is planning on letting non-citizens vote!," and that CARAVAN is coming for your kids/jobs/ whatever scares you.
 
Ac30

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,527
London
Y2Kev said:
WaPo:

How the migrant caravan became so big and why it's continuing to grow
As the group grows, its beginnings are being scrutinized: How did more than 5,000 migrants from across Central America find one another? The answer from many migrants is that they had wanted to leave for months or years, and then — in a Facebook post, a television program, a WhatsApp group — they saw an image of the group and decided to join.

Y'all thought I was kidding about the CARAVAN!!! stuff but it's amazing how much footage the media can get out of showing 5,000 slowly moving people all day on TV.
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Tbf they're brown
Greigor the FellHand said:
gov. Kaish just fired the agriculture sec. Because the sec said he didn't want to protect the lake from fertilizer run off.

Kasich said protecting and bettering lake Erie is paramount.

good on him
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I would've preferred him 100x over Trump simply because he's the only republican rational enough not to pull out of the Paris Accords.

cartoon_soldier said:
The caravan politically only helps the GOP, doesn't help Dems at all no matter the lies by Trump and Fox and the ridiculous coverage by news media.
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If anything this might make Trump look bad since it's under his watch and they're scrambling to respond. Obama's excellent handling of Ebola did diddly squat.
 
Y2Kev

Y2Kev

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Oct 25, 2017
13,863
Um no. The only people who care about the 900 million strong member Muslim / terrorist caravan are racists, and all racists are Republicans. It's just a matter of motivating them to vote and that's not good.
 
cartoon_soldier

cartoon_soldier

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Oct 27, 2017
8,631
The World
Ac30 said:
T
If anything this might make Trump look bad since it's under his watch and they're scrambling to respond. Obama's excellent handling of Ebola did diddly squat.
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They don't have to respond in any meaningful way beyond fear-mongering - basically the 2016 campaign. The coverage of the caravan is dominated by Trump's talking points, I don't even know if Dems have any stance on this issue.
 
Y2Kev

Y2Kev

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,863
cartoon_soldier said:
They don't have to respond in any meaningful way beyond fear-mongering - basically the 2016 campaign. The coverage of the caravan is dominated by Trump's talking points, I don't even know if Dems have any stance on this issue.
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Well look at Frum's poo piece. His argument (which I believe most moderate darlings believe) is that Dems have ceded illegal immigration as an issue they even care about. I don't know if that's born out by the polling but there you go. The only thing you can do is get out there and be compassionate since any other response just activates the racists.
 
Ac30

Ac30

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Oct 30, 2017
14,527
London
cartoon_soldier said:
They don't have to respond in any meaningful way beyond fear-mongering - basically the 2016 campaign. The coverage of the caravan is dominated by Trump's talking points, I don't even know if Dems have any stance on this issue.
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He can fearmonger all he likes. I'm not sure it's having then desired effect (see Fox & Friends panel)

He's president. He's failing. The 35-40% who actually care about this already care enough about this and everyone else is meh
 
Y2Kev

Y2Kev

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,863
Ac30 said:
He can fearmonger all he likes. I'm not sure it's having then desired effect (see Fox & Friends panel)

He's president. He's failing. The 35-40% who actually care about this already care enough about this and everyone else is meh
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Can you explain why Ebola was such an effective thing in 2014?
 
Y2Kev

Y2Kev

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Oct 25, 2017
13,863
Ac30 said:
Because Obama was president then? Or do you mean why people were so afraid of Ebola in particular?
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Why is fear such an effective motivator when otherwise rational people should have no interest in said fear?

Ebola was a disease impacting third world countries. It never actually came to merka in any significant way. Why did people fall for it? Oh yeah because they're afraid of brown people.

Sounds...familiar.
 
Dierce

Dierce

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,993
The caravan happening so close to the election thus allowing republicans to dominate the news cycle with their racist rhetoric seems very suspect. These things don't spontaneously organize themselves.
 
Pixieking

Pixieking

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,956
Y2Kev said:
Can you explain why Ebola was such an effective thing in 2014?
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It's arguable that the US electorate is both far more aware of politics and far more partisan than 2014. "True" independents are becoming fewer and fewer, and the more the Trump administration pushes the envelope, the less "independent" an independent is. The possible erasure of of Trans-people means more and more people have an opinion on trans-rights, for example.

So, I'd argue, Ebola was far more effective in 2014 than it would be now, both because people have chosen sides more recently, and because Ebola was an "out of the blue" news story that caught the attention of truly independent voters.

Slightly late edit tl;dr - I'm not certain the caravan will move the needle for either side because anyone who cared about such a thing has already chosen a side.
 
Wilsongt

Wilsongt

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Oct 25, 2017
18,505
Voyager said:
Fox News is pushing the Caravan hard. I hope it doesn't wok..
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It will with Fox News watchers and Trump voters.

Not a whole lot you can blame Democrats for considering they are not even going to be seater until after the group of migrants is set to arrive.

Logically, anyway. But these people don't function in the realm of logic.
 
Y2Kev

Y2Kev

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,863
Pixieking said:
It's arguable that the US electorate is both far more aware of politics and far more partisan than 2014. "True" independents are becoming fewer and fewer, and the more the Trump administration pushes the envelope, the less "independent" and independent is. The possible erasure of of Trans-people means more and more people have an opinion on trans-rights, for example.

So, I'd argue, Ebola was far more effective in 2014 than it would be now, both because people have chosen sides more recently, and because Ebola was an "out of the blue" news story that caught the attention of truly independent voters.

Slightly late edit tl;dr - I'm not certain the caravan will move the needle for either side because anyone who cared about such a thing has already chosen a side.
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I don't believe it's about switching people. It's about motivating partisans. How do you get lots of demotivated partisans to the polls? Threat of impending brownification.
 
Pixieking

Pixieking

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,956
Y2Kev said:
I don't believe it's about switching people. It's about motivating partisans. How do you get lots of demotivated partisans to the polls? Threat of impending brownification.
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Yeah, this is fair. To that, I would say that I'm not certain the caravan is "scary enough" to motivate anyone. Ebola was in a third-world country, but everyone knows Outbreak or some such film. This caravan? It's interesting that the language used makes me think of a zombie film, but I don't think that framing is believable enough for it to take hold in relatively demotivated R voter's minds.
 
thefro

thefro

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Oct 25, 2017
5,996
Wilsongt said:


I thought we had at least 2 weeks before this shit.
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I've worked as an "election mechanic" doing support for these things along with a Republican counterpart. Touchscreens on old voting machines suck. If you don't calibrate them before every election you'll get this happening every time on a lot of machines. They're complete pieces of shit.

I don't think this is a nefarious conspiracy, but we need paper ballots/optical scan in every district.
 
plagiarize

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
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Oct 25, 2017
27,553
Cape Cod, MA
Dierce said:
The caravan happening so close to the election thus allowing republicans to dominate the news cycle with their racist rhetoric seems very suspect. These things don't spontaneously organize themselves.
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They happen regularly. The media coverage has helped balloon this one to large sizes. I don't think the conspiracies blaming the right or the left help anyone, and they sure as hell distract from the very real problems in Central America.
 
Dierce

Dierce

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Oct 27, 2017
3,993
plagiarize said:
They happen regularly. The media coverage has helped balloon this one to large sizes. I don't think the conspiracies blaming the right or the left help anyone, and they sure as hell distract from the very real problems in Central America.
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Fair enough but we can't ignore the fact that it's allowing them to define what the midterms is about. One way or another the media will largely spin it as a win for them, even if they only get to keep the senate.
 
Ac30

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,527
London
Y2Kev said:
Why is fear such an effective motivator when otherwise rational people should have no interest in said fear?

Ebola was a disease impacting third world countries. It never actually came to merka in any significant way. Why did people fall for it? Oh yeah because they're afraid of brown people.

Sounds...familiar.
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Fear is always the best motivator. Problem is, I'm not sure people still trust Trump to handle immigration - people are afraid, sure, but Trump hasn't exactly shown himself to be good at handling this kind of stuff. He flubbed the separations and crossings are up this year.
 
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