US PoliERA 2018 |OT13| And now the fun starts

Royalan · Dec 18, 2018

The framing is terrible, but the poll is still pretty significant. WoC make up a pretty big portion of the get-shit-done leg of the Democratic operation. Who they get behind is going to have a huge early advantage in organization and enthusiasm.

It also highlights that Bernie has done little, if anything, to ingratiate himself with the movers and shakers of the party. Hopefully when he gets pummeled and starts whining about establishment conspiracies like last time, people will see through it.

Stinkles · Dec 18, 2018

'3y Kingdom said:
Whoops.

Just like last time?

Oh sorry I thought this was early 2016.

I slept in.

The Namekian · Dec 18, 2018

shadow_shogun said:

I can't think of a better front for embezzlement and campaign finance fraud than the RNC

Diablos · Dec 18, 2018

Euphoria said:
Beto and Harris will fight for the nomination and whoever loses needs to be VP.

Yep. It will be fun to watch.

BlastProcessing · Dec 18, 2018

lmcfigs said:

This is more than a little bit embarrassing. We are all going to need to steel ourselves against the power of the un-factchecked 2020 primary tweet.

B-Dubs · Dec 18, 2018

BlastProcessing said:
This is more than a little bit embarrassing. We are all going to need to steel ourselves against the power of the un-factchecked 2020 primary tweet.

Just ignore all polling for now. It's all just name recognition, once everyone announces and starts campaigning we'll get a real look at what's up.

SatelliteOfLove · Dec 18, 2018

shadow_shogun said:

Ah, Pam Bondi.

This is like that thing with the inaugural commitee + Trump U. settlement both being...$25m even.

BWoog said:
So many assholes are soon to be gone from our lives come January, Gowdy being one of them.

Gone? His Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde ass will be around HERE.

Sagroth said:
I'm trying to figure out why the RNC would want to do this. I mean, I know they already kept Cohen on for a while even after he was indicted, and I'm betting a lot of illegal funds were funneled to them via the NRA and such, but this still seems like a dangerous gamble considering the campaign finance violations that have already come out against Trump, and more crimes likely to follow. Is this a power grab from Trump to avoid a primary challenge, or are they trying to hide under Trump's wing in hopes his executive privilege will keep them safe from investigators?

Their parts have long been cast, now only the final act is left.

Blader · Dec 18, 2018

Should I be upset about the Trump campaign/RNC merger? I don't get it. He has already completely dominated the GOP and squeezed out any possible dissent - what about this org chart reshuffle change about that?

Madison · Dec 18, 2018

Euphoria said:
Beto and Harris will fight for the nomination and whoever loses needs to be VP.

God, I hope not.

lmcfigs · Dec 18, 2018

Blader said:
Should I be upset about the Trump campaign/RNC merger? I don't get it. He has already completely dominated the GOP and squeezed out any possible dissent - what about this org chart reshuffle change about that?

well I'm just not super sure how the rnc benefits from this.

aspiegamer · Dec 18, 2018

I'm assuming the merger is being done to try to cover up all the money shuffling they've almost certainly done and make any future movements easier/legal. It sounds like it's a power move (and probably is to an extent), but this is Trump we're talking about, so it's assuredly rooted in scamming people.

Kirblar · Dec 18, 2018

lmcfigs said:
well I'm just not super sure how the rnc benefits from this.

They don't, but the President is the leader of the RNC/DNC while in office.

(this may be something that needs to be altered going forward, because we saw w/ Obama that campaign management skills didn't translate to internal party management skills)

Autodidact · Dec 18, 2018

Special election in VA HD-24, a heavily Trump district. Results not quite final, but looks like the result will be ~60/40 GOP.

Trump won this district by 34. A 20-point loss would be a 14-point swing in our favor - broadly in line with the special and off-year elections in 2017 and early 2018. Bodes well for our races next year, though we should of course wait for more data.

Midnight Jon · Dec 18, 2018

Linkura said:
TREASON?

chadskin said:
IT'S TREASON SEASON, AGAIN

US PoliERA 2018 |OT13| It's the Treason for the Season

XMonkey · Dec 18, 2018

Blader said:
Should I be upset about the Trump campaign/RNC merger? I don't get it. He has already completely dominated the GOP and squeezed out any possible dissent - what about this org chart reshuffle change about that?

I don't feel upset by it. If the RNC wants to tie themselves even more to Trump then go right ahead. That's just asking for trouble as more time goes by.

Sexy Fish · Dec 18, 2018

Artistically designed beautiful pointless wall.

VectorPrime · Dec 18, 2018

What a dumb fuck.

Wilsongt · Dec 18, 2018

What a fucking narcissitic asshole.

Make his wall as small as his dick and as fragile as his ego.

rjinaz · Dec 18, 2018

You get to see the Brown people fleeing from regimes that want to kill them, and laugh at them. Look at those kids dying! Bonus!

FreezePeach · Dec 18, 2018

aspiegamer said:
I'm assuming the merger is being done to try to cover up all the money shuffling they've almost certainly done and make any future movements easier/legal. It sounds like it's a power move (and probably is to an extent), but this is Trump we're talking about, so it's assuredly rooted in scamming people.

By merging Trump and RNC you pretty much annihilate the chance of a repub to primary him, which they are worried about. The dude would have a better shot going independent.

Sexy Fish · Dec 18, 2018

Wilsongt said:
What a fucking narcissitic asshole.

Make his wall as small as his dick and as fragile as his ego.

gaugebozo · Dec 18, 2018

[

Sexy Fish said:
Artistically designed beautiful pointless wall.

Anything you can see through is a fence.

Y2Kev · Dec 18, 2018

I think Nancy just needs to do regular coffee chats with America where she snatches wigs.

Box of Kittens · Dec 18, 2018

Number of Completion said:
Also from the last week:

Sanders is at 58-23. Biden is at 56-22. Everyone else has much lower name recognition, which limits the usefulness of the fav number by itself. Not that name recognition is meaningless, but that's something candidates can improve over time.

theprodigy said:
actually if you see the replies apparently not even half of them are black at all

Yeah, that's more than just a little misleading.

Deleted member 8257 · Dec 18, 2018

Astounding.

Hiphopopotamus · Dec 18, 2018

aspiegamer said:
I'm assuming the merger is being done to try to cover up all the money shuffling they've almost certainly done and make any future movements easier/legal. It sounds like it's a power move (and probably is to an extent), but this is Trump we're talking about, so it's assuredly rooted in scamming people.

I am partial to the theory he wants to continue to steer money to his interests, and believes that he is shielded so long as he has a GOP Senate and a toothless FEC

Blader · Dec 18, 2018

lmcfigs said:
well I'm just not super sure how the rnc benefits from this.

Me neither really. On paper, it sounds like it'll be easier to coordinate between the two if they are effectively the same organization. In practice, it's going to be still be two different staffs with overlapping responsibilities, and I'm not sure how merging the two without like laying off an entire management team from one or the other doesn't create the same kind of conflicts they'd otherwise already have.

in any event I want Trump to lose anyway, so all the better if he can sink the RNC at the same time

Iolo · Dec 18, 2018

oh now we building artisanal slats huh

Linkura · Dec 18, 2018

HOW THE FUCK DOES BERNIE HAVE 58% FAVORABILITY

MarioW · Dec 18, 2018

aspiegamer said:
I'm assuming the merger is being done to try to cover up all the money shuffling they've almost certainly done and make any future movements easier/legal. It sounds like it's a power move (and probably is to an extent), but this is Trump we're talking about, so it's assuredly rooted in scamming people.

My guess is that it's more about "control" than helping obfuscate shenanigans. Shenanigans are a given any though.

I think this is good for Democrats longer term though, assuming Trump loses re-election. He taints every organization through poor staffing choices, misguided strategy/policy, and a sprinkling of illegal activity. The RNC will have a lot of work to do to repair the damage when Trump and cronies abandon everything after a loss, work they need to do potentially under the shadow of investigations.

If he ends up winning re-election, then he has done the right thing by himself as he is even more entrenched as Republican politicans are even more beholden to him.

skullmuffins · Dec 18, 2018

worthless man

TheHunter · Dec 18, 2018

I see the BernieBots are out in full force trying to bring Beto down already.

Fucking LOL.

Kirblar · Dec 18, 2018

skullmuffins said:
worthless man

Translation: He heard that Gillum ran behind Nelson.

JustinP · Dec 18, 2018

lmcfigs said:
well I'm just not super sure how the rnc benefits from this.

Makes it harder for anti trump establishment to nudge in and challenge trump I guess — republicans trying to appear united and strong going into 2020.

Kirblar · Dec 18, 2018

Trump also shut down the "foundation" today.

Timing probably not a coincidence.

shiba5 · Dec 18, 2018

Sexy Fish said:
Artistically designed beautiful pointless wall.

1. Nothing gets built fast by the Government
2. Lawsuits, lawsuits, lawsuits from everyone and everywhere
3. All the roads this thing needs will cost a fortune
4. Plus personnel to man the dumb thing

Yeah, it's going to save us billions. /s

Edit: Wait... billions a month?? Anyone who believes this conman was dropped on their head as a baby.

BlastProcessing · Dec 18, 2018

Sexy Fish said:
Artistically designed beautiful pointless wall.

Artisanal Racism

Iolo · Dec 18, 2018

Code:

  S
S L  S S
L A  L L
ARTISANAL
T S  T T
S    S S

Dodongo · Dec 18, 2018

TheHunter said:
I see the BernieBots are out in full force trying to bring Beto down already.

Fucking LOL.

Gonna be hard for them to go scorched earth again when no one cares about Bernie this time.

JustinP · Dec 18, 2018

Royalan said:
The framing is terrible, but the poll is still pretty significant. WoC make up a pretty big portion of the get-shit-done leg of the Democratic operation. Who they get behind is going to have a huge early advantage in organization and enthusiasm.

It also highlights that Bernie has done little, if anything, to ingratiate himself with the movers and shakers of the party. Hopefully when he gets pummeled and starts whining about establishment conspiracies like last time, people will see through it.

If establishment kingmakers torpedo his efforts again, you think that will... delegitimize his establishment critiques?

It'll be interesting to see how the anti establishment tones of 2016 are different in 2020 (could argue that Clinton's presence elevated anti establishment feelings across the board, so will be lower w/her gone and handicap Bernie's brand), but measuring the outsider independent by how well he gets along with party insiders is, uh, something.

BlastProcessing · Dec 18, 2018

I was, honestly, only against the wall for aesthetic reasons. Maybe we can order it off of Etsy or something? Get something real nice.

Wilsongt · Dec 18, 2018

Linkura said:
HOW THE FUCK DOES BERNIE HAVE 58% FAVORABILITY

Millenials are dumb.

Royalan · Dec 18, 2018

JustinP said:
If establishment kingmakers torpedo his efforts again, you think that will... delegitimize his establishment critiques?

"Kingmakers" is an interesting way to refer to "Democratic organizers, activists, and leaders of color."

"Torpedo" is a peculiar way to frame "get behind the candidate that reachers out for their support."

cameron · Dec 18, 2018

NPR @NPR

The Senate has passed a bipartisan criminal justice bill aimed at overhauling federal prisons and reducing recidivism by a vote of 87 to 12.

The bill goes next to the House, which passed a more modest version of the legislation earlier this year. That chamber is expected to take it up this week.

Frank Thorp V @frankthorp

Here are the 12 NO votes on the criminal justice reform bill that just passed in the Senate 87-12:
Barrasso
Cotton
Enzi
Kennedy
Kyl
Murkowski
Risch
Rounds
Rubio
Sasse
Shelby
Sullivan

Edit:

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

America is the greatest Country in the world and my job is to fight for ALL citizens, even those who have made mistakes. Congratulations to the Senate on the bi-partisan passing of a historic Criminal Justice Reform Bill....

....This will keep our communities safer, and provide hope and a second chance, to those who earn it. In addition to everything else, billions of dollars will be saved. I look forward to signing this into law!

DTC · Dec 18, 2018

Linkura said:
HOW THE FUCK DOES BERNIE HAVE 58% FAVORABILITY

What you see on Twitter/forums is not what you see on the ground.

Also... he hasn't really been attacked yet. I think his favorability would go down by quite a bit if people had heard some of the things he's said in the past (or even the present).

VectorPrime · Dec 18, 2018

I mean, I have a favorable opinion of Bernie. I won't be voting for him in the Primaries though.

The same goes for many others.

YamchasRevenge · Dec 18, 2018

So that Beto thread is what Era will have to deal with for the next year and a half.

JustinP · Dec 18, 2018

Royalan said:
"Kingmakers" is an interesting way to refer to "Democratic organizers, activists, and leaders of color."

"Torpedo" is a peculiar way to frame "get behind the candidate that reachers out for their support."

I chose that framing (though "kingmakers" to describe "movers and shakers of the party" -- not PoC in particular as you're accusing) to illustrate how outsiders view insiders and highlight the disconnect among many that post here.

Bernie is so frustratingly popular to many here, in part, because they don't seem to understand how unpopular politics is to many, many people. Him butting heads with the establishment is his strength -- it's what makes him so popular among much of the public, but it also naturally makes him unpopular with establishment crowd. Point being, if he is going to pull it off (I'm doubting), it probably won't be due to him cozying up with party movers and shakers so that's not really what you want to look at as a metric.

edit: one of the big reasons I don't think Bernie will be as strong in 2020 is that since 2016, many dems have learned from him. Kamala/Beto swore off PAC money, Beto structured his campaign a lot like Bernie', even hiring some of the same consultants. More dems are finding ways to appeal to people that generally find politics offputting -- as a result, Bernie isn't seen as the only option for these people and his weaknesses matter more. The effects Bernie has had on the party have generally been great.

Trouble · Dec 18, 2018

I'll take Art Is Anal for 600, Alexsh.

Royalan · Dec 18, 2018

JustinP said:
I chose that framing (though "kingmakers" to describe "movers and shakers of the party" -- not PoC in particular as you're accusing) to illustrate how outsiders view insiders and highlight the disconnect among many that post here.

Last I checked, you also post here. I'm not sure how you figure you have a better idea of how "outsiders" view things than anybody else.

US PoliERA 2018 |OT13| And now the fun starts

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