US PoliERA 2018 |OT13| Very Legal & Very Cool (and very redacted)

Oct 27, 2017
3,690
Let's be real, Bernie would make a really good President.
IMO, he would be a very ineffective POTUS, mostly because he doesn't know how to build a coalition which requires internal compromise. I believe he doesn't care about wielding a coalition, mostly because his cult of personality requires a pure vessel for their philosophy.
 
Oct 25, 2017
16,829
Let's be real, Bernie would make a really good President.
Let's be real, he wouldn't, because people who spend their entire careers attacking from the outside don't know what to do with power once they get it.

The OUTSIDER WHO CHANGES THINGS UP AND CRACKS SKULLS AND GETS THINGS DONE doesn't actually exist. Carter and Trump are the two weakest Presidents in modern history and both were outsiders to the political establishment. Even someone like Macron in France was an insider who broke off to do his own thing.

To be effective as Pres, you need to understand coalition building, and gaining and leveraging power, which permanent outsiders are fundamentally terrible at.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,189
I actually did think Bernie would be a bad president in 2016, in no small part because he seemed genuinely ignorant on a lot of foreign policy issues. To his credit he seems to have sharpened up a lot on that front in the last two years though.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,894
IMO, he would be a very ineffective POTUS, mostly because he doesn't know how to build a coalition which requires internal compromise. I believe he doesn't care about wielding a coalition, mostly because his cult of personality requires a pure vessel for their philosophy.
Right. He wouldn't seek bipartisanship with Republicans.

But he would spend all his time bitching about how corporate Democrats are stymieing progressive legislation.

And just be a more liberal Carter.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,006
The trailer for the movie Vice gives me major douche chills.

Marketing the film as if Cheney is some maverick rockstar badass is super, super gross.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,070
IMO, he would be a very ineffective POTUS, mostly because he doesn't know how to build a coalition which requires internal compromise. I believe he doesn't care about wielding a coalition, mostly because his cult of personality requires a pure vessel for their philosophy.
Except this is mostly a myth. He's pretty smart about using speech as a way to move the overton window while being more realistic when it comes to actually working government.

https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/d...nie-sanders-keeps-his-pragmatism-under-wraps/
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/...anders-was-more-pragmatic-than-socialist.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/...ist-grandpa.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

Bonus: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/sanderss-pragmatism-may-cost-him-the-nomination.html

The more grounded critique would be that he may be an easy target for republicans to gain seats against and cripple his presidential power. Though, that seemed more likely back when popular wisdom was that republican voters were actually economically conservative.

It's tough for me to imagine him coming out on top in the primary though.
 

DTC

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,458
Warren managed to underperform Hillary by 3% as an incumbent in a blue wave. I'll pass...

You could argue it's b/c of Charlie Baker but Baker clearly had no coattails in the local races.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,690
Except this is mostly a myth. He's pretty smart about using speech as a way to move the overton window while being more realistic when it comes to actually working government.

https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/d...nie-sanders-keeps-his-pragmatism-under-wraps/
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/26/...anders-was-more-pragmatic-than-socialist.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/01/...ist-grandpa.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

Bonus: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/sanderss-pragmatism-may-cost-him-the-nomination.html

The more grounded critique would be that he may be an easy target for republicans to gain seats against and cripple his presidential power. Though, that seemed more likely back when popular wisdom was that republican voters were actually economically conservative.

It's tough for me to imagine him coming out on top in the primary though.
I've re/read those articles before. You don't actually see any real history of coalition building. You see pragmatism when he's mayor of a town with ~40K white people. What you don't see a lot of is dragging 60million+ Dems along with his plans.

I am not saying Bern-dog can't be an effective leader, I am saying that the promises he makes to his most ardent fans make it difficult for him to achieve anything meaningfully progressive in a 3 year timeframe
 
Oct 27, 2017
460
Warren isn’t ready for Prime Time. IIRC, her people are super protective of her. They would end an interview mid-answer for being one second over time suggesting they’re afraid she might embarrass herself (which she did with DNAmails). Presidential nominees need to seem authentic (which is not fair and has gender bias witten all over it) and the overly calculated-consultent approved candiates don’t work as well anymore.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,677
Running on big tent doesn't mean you govern on it. Dems have Moderate Darlings too.
I'm talking about governance though. Does anyone seriously believe Beto would reject attempting bipartisanship, or would keep up the whole facade of "my colleagues on the other side who have genuine disagreements with us?" This pointless respect for the opposition who hates you was one of the worst things about Obama's presidency and I don't see any reason to believe Beto is going to put a stop to it. It's going to be WHEN THEY GO LOW WE GO HIGH all over again.

And he obviously won't target the capitalist class, but none of them will (except Bernie a bit).
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,086
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...g-tucker-carlson-says/?utm_term=.02ff9bdac7ad

Tucker Carlson complaining about Trump? Am I missing something here? I thought this guy was Hannity Jr. over on Fox.
https://www.weltwoche.ch/ausgaben/2...ot-capable-die-weltwoche-ausgabe-49-2018.html

Seems like he slipped into his old CNN character/broke kayfabe since he was talking to a European outlet.

Actually a pretty interesting read, even though I don't agree with Carlson's conclusions, at least I think he's been honest in this interview about his beliefs on society, etc.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
16,829
I'm talking about governance though. Does anyone seriously believe Beto would reject attempting bipartisanship, or would keep up the whole facade of "my colleagues on the other side who have genuine disagreements with us?" This pointless respect for the opposition who hates you was one of the worst things about Obama's presidency and I don't see any reason to believe Beto is going to put a stop to it. It's going to be WHEN THEY GO LOW WE GO HIGH all over again.

And he obviously won't target the capitalist class, but none of them will (except Bernie a bit).
Yes, because Beto, like me and you, was alive in 2009 and saw what happened. If you get 50-51 Senate seats, fillibuster is going to be nuked by necessity.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,894
or would keep up the whole facade of "my colleagues on the other side who have genuine disagreements with us?
That's the facade that Pelosi projects... and as you can see from her last round as Speaker, it's just that - a facade.

It sounds like your fears should be directed toward the Senate.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,070
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...g-tucker-carlson-says/?utm_term=.02ff9bdac7ad

Tucker Carlson complaining about Trump? Am I missing something here? I thought this guy was Hannity Jr. over on Fox.
Tucker Carlson is pretty devious and knows that white nationalism can be much more effective under a competent leader, and Trump is not competent. I keep bringing that up because I think people like Tucker are working toward finding someone competent -- they see blood in the water.

I've re/read those articles before. You don't actually see any real history of coalition building. You see pragmatism when he's mayor of a town with ~40K white people. What you don't see a lot of is dragging 60million+ Dems along with his plans.

I am not saying Bern-dog can't be an effective leader, I am saying that the promises he makes to his most ardent fans make it difficult for him to achieve anything meaningfully progressive in a 3 year timeframe
I know people like to pretend Sanders is only popular because he was the only alternative to Clinton, but there's a reason Sanders didn't go the way of O'Malley (or basically any other primary-losing candidate in general) and nobody expected Sanders to blow up like he did when he announced his run (not even him). What he did was quite impressive for what it was, whether you like him or not.

But now more than ever, I don't think any president can do much without major majorities in both chambers. The incentives for compromise are just not there anymore -- republicans don't care if they lose seats because they're confident they can smear dems enough to win them again later.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,677
Yes, because Beto, like me and you, was alive in 2009 and saw what happened. If you get 50-51 Senate seats, fillibuster is going to be nuked by necessity.
Being alive in 2009 doesn't really guarantee anything. I'll have to see what he says in the debates.

That's the facade that Pelosi projects... and as you can see from her last round as Speaker, it's just that - a facade.

It sounds like your fears should be directed toward the Senate.
Everyone hates Chuck though, that's a given.
 
Oct 25, 2017
16,829
Being alive in 2009 doesn't really guarantee anything. I'll have to see what he says in the debates.
What he says in the election isn't actually representative of a governing style. Whether he believes it or not, he's going to have to signal it and play the Moderate Darling game. (Obama, unfortunately, believed his own hype.)
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,677
What he says in the election isn't actually representative of a governing style. Whether he believes it or not, he's going to have to signal it and play the Moderate Darling game. (Obama, unfortunately, believed his own hype.)
I don't see how this squares with his much vaunted sense of authenticity.
 
Oct 25, 2017
16,829
I don't see how this squares with his much vaunted sense of authenticity.
Hillary Clinton was very honest and authentic. And people hated that.

People don't want actual authenticity, they want the appearance of authenticity. That's the charisma part of "being good at being a politician" that Hilary and Warren lack. They're fundamentally policy nerds. Which is great! But... not really a skill set very relevant to doing well in elections.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,394
OT, but I lowkey wonder how this France situation resolves. They rescinded some of the taxes, but people are still protesting. They want his resignation.
I would have thought this sort of sustained protest would have happened earlier, specifically when his CoS was caught busting heads in the middle of a protest while wearing police gear. Macron, from what I've been able to tell, is a pretty dismal president. That's easy to forget because he does spend a considerable time dunking on Theresa May, which makes it easy to forget that he has his own considerable domestic problems.

We'd probably be talking more about how bad Macron is in general, but he's protected by a bunch of world leaders who are worse than him sucking the oxygen out of the room: Trump, May, Abe, Erdogan, Bolsonaro soon...