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US PoliERA 2018 |OT13| And now the fun starts
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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That makes no sense, he has no reelection to consider.
A non-party line judge would be refreshing, just wish it was someone else.
Would certainly explain why Kennedy wanted him in his seat so badly.
Wait, what?
You don't want Manchin to have to deal with those issues.
I'm no expert, but I don't think so.
"Forcing" is a stretch. He just didn't want the job himself.
It's true there are no votes for him but he is considered more rapey by the country than Clarence Thomas was at this time after the vote. Folks want to create their legacy by getting their approvals up
Where I'm at as well. Why give the liberals anything at all. He has no one to answer to really.
Does anyone have that chart that places the justices' and prospective justices' ideologies on a continuum? We all wanted Hardiman because he was more liberal than Roberts and slightly more conservative than Kennedy. Kavanaugh, as I recall, was very conservative, almost as much as Thomas and moreso than Gorsuch.
Seeing that Roberts also declined probably means he didn't want Kavanaugh destroying the courts credibility right away.
No but Kav is also not a thing that actually happens either
OH. RECESSION.
If trump is anything.
he is an acceleration-ist.
the recession, and dip in the economy is going to hit before his first term is done.
I predict, april/may of 2019 is going to get bumpy, economically.
I am very curious to see retail sales for the holiday.
( my job has higher peak days [1-2 days before, 2~days after the actual holiday date], but on the same or fewer sales weekly, as compared to last year.)
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If we are going to have a recession, I hope it does hit during Trumps term.
This is good but they need to accelerate the deplaforming or haters and bigots. This one ban a day is not going to work . There are thousands of accounts with a lot of subscribers. They need to remove the small fish as well
Isn't Kav personal friends with Matt Drudge and Ann Coulter? It would be weird if he were anything but a hardcore partisan on a personal level.
Seems to me John Roberts put the fear of God into Kavanaugh and he's trying to shake off the ill-tempered Trump lackey perception he has.
As for Butina, it sounds like Russia has given her the okay to cooperate with prosecutors perhaps because the krompramat they had over Trump might have been exposed with the recent memos from Mueller, specifically Moscow Trump Tower. Once Trump ceases to be a useful idiot expect Russia to allow more dirt on Trump, GOP, and NRA to bubble up to the surface instead of suppressing it.
As for Butina, it sounds like Russia has given her the okay to cooperate with prosecutors perhaps because the krompramat they had over Trump might have been exposed with the recent memos from Mueller, specifically Moscow Trump Tower. Once Trump ceases to be a useful idiot expect Russia to allow more dirt on Trump, GOP, and NRA to bubble up to the surface instead of suppressing it.
But there in lays the issue.
most people in that position, "reveal" certain things, that may or may not end up being coded messages to their handlers.
so I highly doubt anything from her is going to help anyone much.
Recession legit terrifies me, my family was fucking nearly bankrupted the previous time. Graduated in peak recession, my dad's job got chopped, had to basically help hoist a family of 5 on my back with some shit job I took right before graduation.
That said, time to celebrate like it's 2017
That said, time to celebrate like it's 2017
Can't wait for his next Joe Rogan appearance and the OT thread full of people saying "just listening to other opinions, bruh" and people still not realizing that de platforming is the way to do things.
Or he could just be laying low after a rough confirmation, especially wrt women's issues.
(This is baseless speculation)
i could be imagining things but I thought Kavanaugh was to the left of Gorsuch. The biggest problem with him, besides the allegations of course, was his stance on whether the President could be indicted.
What a year.
I bought a little leveraged volatility late Friday, just as a partial hedge, and it's already up 10%.
I mean, to be somewhat optimistic, most recessions are nowhere near the severity of what happened in 2008. I remember having to literally stop my run on the treadmill as I watched the Lehman news that morning. Shit was hitting the fan so hard and i'm not normally one that follows market news, and even i was stressed out over what was happening.
oh, that'll probably be in 2 weeks.
and then it'll be jordan peterson and some other smuchk
From Axios:
From Vox:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...8/supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-right-cartoon
From Vox:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...8/supreme-court-brett-kavanaugh-right-cartoon
Maggie plays administration mouthpiece/apologist too often, but I think she has seen how the respective pro- and anti-Trump books have fared in sales, and she will be burning all her access-journalism bridges in her own book.
True. But one thing that recession had that an upcoming one doesn't have is a soybean export market for the US with China as a major buyer..
Right. Recessions are cyclical, and we've had relatively mild ones before: the late '50s (that caused Republicans to get bodied in the '58 midterms), the early 2000s. We were always going to have another one eventually regardless of the White House's occupant. My only fear is that this administration turns what should or could be a mild one into something major that Democrats have to fix.
Anyway, I found the justices' ideology chart: B10.
So this decision is unexpected from Kavanaugh.
Thomas has to be worst SCOTUS replacement ever made. Him replacing Justice Marshall, where his vision of America is probably one where someone like him could never be appointed to that position. His votes are Fox News distilled in the legalese. Honestly hope President Harris or O'Rourke get to pick his replacement. Would be fitting.
Speaking of recessions; a real fun fact about one of the economists working in the White House:
In 1999, the current chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under Trump wrote a book called Dow 36,000 which predicted the DJIA would hit 36k within 3 years. Something that clearly has never happened and will not happen for a long time. Most interestingly, the book came less than a year before the Dot-com-crash.
Just one of the brilliant minds Trump has chosen to craft economic policy.
In 1999, the current chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under Trump wrote a book called Dow 36,000 which predicted the DJIA would hit 36k within 3 years. Something that clearly has never happened and will not happen for a long time. Most interestingly, the book came less than a year before the Dot-com-crash.
Just one of the brilliant minds Trump has chosen to craft economic policy.
My initial thoughts would be Kav is perhaps laying low and trying not to be hyper partisan out of the gate to try and recoup some of the reputation he lost from his meltdown
But then I remember that he has a lifetime appointment and is untouchable so I don't really get that either
Or maybe the ideology scales are way off because this sort of thing is incredibly difficult to rate
But whatever the case, this is like his second or third time siding with liberal judges so far and he has been in for just a few months which is more than alito and Thomas have in like their entire careers.
But then I remember that he has a lifetime appointment and is untouchable so I don't really get that either
Or maybe the ideology scales are way off because this sort of thing is incredibly difficult to rate
But whatever the case, this is like his second or third time siding with liberal judges so far and he has been in for just a few months which is more than alito and Thomas have in like their entire careers.
This is a dangerous thought....
Because it goes against all the evidence.
She needs a majority of those voting for individuals. Present votes/abstentions don't count.
If no one gets a majority, it goes to a second ballot, which is not uncommon in the history of Speaker elections. There's no chance of a Republican Speaker because unlike Democrats, they can't get a majority on their own, so unless some Democrats vote for McCarthy, it won't happen. And they're not voting for McCarthy.
She'll be fine.
The second ballot is the same as the first? So she could theoretically be held hostage indefinitely?
No, candidates can always withdraw or enter.
It's a parliamentary process, not something required by the Constitution. The Constitution only requires a majority of votes for individuals, whoever it is or however many ballots it takes.
I mean, are the ratings for the other justices based on actual rulings since they've been on the court, whereas Kav's rating is based on previous statements? That wouldn't capture any "souter-like" situation would it (not that I think that's what we're looking at, just trying to understand where these ratings come from for a new justice vs the established justices).
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