US PoliERA 2018 |OT6| An Unmitigated Disaster

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LinktothePastGOAT

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Oct 27, 2017
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This might be the biggest self inflicted unforced error trump has ever pulled off. Even manafort realizes his best chance is in the teeth of the machine. Trump is not his friend. And cornered trump is nobody’s friend.
I’ll wait before getting my hopes up.
Also, I don’t see trumps performance today changing anything. His defenders will still defend him when it matters. Republicans in Congress retiring will condemn him. Leadership won’t do shit. The public will take issue and in a few days another issue will pop up. People that hate trump will see it as another example of him showing his being a puppet. Mueller will continue working in the shadows.
 

Wrighteous86

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Oct 27, 2017
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It's not higher than post-9/11 GWB. Bush hit 98% approval among Republicans in the immediate aftermath of the attacks. Trump is "only" at 88%. Far as I can tell, Trump's approval among Republicans is higher than any other president *except GWB* at this point in his presidency, but other Republican presidents had higher approval ratings than Trump's current approval at other points in their presidency.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/13/politics/trump-popularity-history/index.html

Not to give Republicans an out, but I believe I read that a big part of this is that much fewer voters are identifying as Republican (going to Independent in disgust) so the only R’s remaining are his supporters.
 

Teggy

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Oct 25, 2017
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Oh, Jeff Flake is arranging for another strongly worded resolution. Because those do fuckall.
 
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Stinkles

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Oct 25, 2017
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I’ll wait before getting my hopes up.
Also, I don’t see trumps performance today changing anything. His defenders will still defend him when it matters. Republicans in Congress retiring will condemn him. Leadership won’t do shit. The public will take issue and in a few days another issue will pop up. People that hate trump will see it as another example of him showing his being a puppet. Mueller will continue working in the shadows.
It’s not his performance that’s different.

It’s the reaction.

And from whom.
 

Chumley

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Rachel Maddow was also implying Manafort could be close to flipping.
 

Zed

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Oct 28, 2017
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I still think this won't change anything significant. Just wait until Republicans get their bullshit talking points and stories together. I'm guessing in a month Trump will still have about the same approval numbers (assuming the economy isn't crashing) and Republicans will seat a Supreme Court "judge" who thinks the President is immune from investigation.
 

LinktothePastGOAT

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It’s not his performance that’s different.

It’s the reaction.

And from whom.
Just because some folks on Fox News are condemning him doesn’t mean much. I mean it’s njce and all but the benefit of him always being crazy or doing something horrible is these folks will move on in a few days and the media won’t hold their feet to the fire.

No actual leadership has said anything different. Not Ryan. Not McConnell. Not the secretary of defense. Not the DNI. Not Pence. Nobody of actual importance.
 

PantherLotus

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Oct 27, 2017
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This is your periodic reminder to take a deep breath, stay hydrated, and get some rest. The republic will still be standing tomorrow.
 

xenocide

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Oct 25, 2017
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Not to give Republicans an out, but I believe I read that a big part of this is that much fewer voters are identifying as Republican (going to Independent in disgust) so the only R’s remaining are his supporters.
I believe it's a slight downward trend--the number of people that identify as Republicans is down from like 34% to 31%. Not a massive shift, but it's also worth noting Trump is not super popular among Independents, and while Independents make up a huge percentage of voters, there's a lot of them that are Libertarians and reliably vote for a specific party.
 

aspiegamer

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Oct 27, 2017
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ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
I refuse to believe that even his staff were shocked by how poorly this went. Anyone around Trump on a regular basis would be fully aware of how hilariously incompetent he is. They have only themselves to blame if they had higher expectations.
 

Captjohnboyd

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Oct 25, 2017
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I refuse to believe that even his staff were shocked by how poorly this went. Anyone around Trump on a regular basis would be fully aware of how hilariously incompetent he is. They have only themselves to blame if they had higher expectations.
Yeah I don't buy it for one second. They've played this tune for us before. It's only to make themselves look a little less pathetic at their jobs

As for the manafort thing, I'm not going to buy Seth's shit but maddow covering it as well as some more reputable people on Twitter has me hopeful
 

Amibguous Cad

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Oct 25, 2017
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Has the inevitable Hitler reacts meme surfaced yet?

EDIT: Trump’s performance isn’t even the biggest story of the day, we now have proof the NRA was being used as a conduit for the Kremlin. Anyone think that’s the end of it? It’s all downhill from here.
 

Fenderputty

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Jan 15, 2018
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I’m fairly confident this blows over in a week, that the media will move on to the next controversy because chaos is all Trump can do, and that John McCain’s incredibly furrowed brow will have done nothing but rile up his daughter on twitter.
 

ZOONAMI

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Oct 27, 2017
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I’m fairly confident this blows over in a week, that the media will move on to the next controversy because chaos is all Trump can do, and that John McCain’s incredibly furrowed brow will have done nothing but rile up his daughter on twitter.
Nah, we're on a full blown rocky road now. Media has flipped a script and they actually are going to dig into this Maria Butina indictment. More indictments are coming and will keep coming through the midterms. GOP congress members and other US citizens are going to be indicted shortly.
 

LinktothePastGOAT

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Nah, we're on a full blown rocky road now. Media has flipped a script and they actually are going to dig into this Maria Butina indictment. More indictments are coming and will keep coming through the midterms. GOP congress members and other US citizens are going to be indicted shortly.
The media that like a cat moves on to the next shiny light or string dangled it front of it? Doubtful. In terms of indictments? It was 5 months between he last 12 Russians and this one.

Mueller allegedly was going to submit his report on the obstruction issue by this or next month but seeing as how Trump refuses to sit for the interview either he submits it without it or he subpoenas him and now we are going well into next year.

But many speculate he doesn’t want to impact the midterms like Comey. I don’t see how he doesn’t unless he just fast forwards and submits a full report in the next two months. And this seems very unlikely.

Basically nobody knows shit except Mueller and rosenstein. But the media will move on by the end of the weeek.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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It would be huge if today can help change the narrative enough that people realize we can't be left in the dark about this just because of the midterms (or Giuliani). That would mean news releasing for the rest of the year that would really help midterm turnout numbers.

Also, I feel like Trump messing up like this would really ruin his chances of weaseling out of an interview.
 

Fenderputty

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Jan 15, 2018
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Nah, we're on a full blown rocky road now. Media has flipped a script and they actually are going to dig into this Maria Butina indictment. More indictments are coming and will keep coming through the midterms.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I just don’t see how this was any more eye opening than the last billion Russia related scandals. Goal posts always seem to shift back further. Maybe if more people are indicted ...
 

Antrax

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Oct 25, 2017
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I’m fairly confident this blows over in a week, that the media will move on to the next controversy because chaos is all Trump can do, and that John McCain’s incredibly furrowed brow will have done nothing but rile up his daughter on twitter.
Eh, beltway addicts were saying the same about family separation, especially after Abolish ICE concern trolling and civility in restaurants and all that happened, but then we got polling and interviews that most people hadn't seen or cared about any of that and were still pissed about the family separation.

John Q Public doesn't really engage with spin like we junkies do. They catch their news in waves, and this one seems to have crashed in. It'll be awhile (or it'll take a bigger story) to push it out. Trump's own video also doesn't help.

Edit:
I keep seeing this... but I also haven't seen a case where he has actually been wrong. Am I missing something?
He's a Texas sharpshooter. He pushes normal stories along with Mensch-style conspiracies and then pretends like he only pushed the normal stuff (unless a big test was right, he definitely claims credit for that).

His stuff may be right or wrong, but to say it another way, knowing he reported on something does not in any way add to its validity. Maddow is apparently reporting the same thing, and she's more credible.
 

LinktothePastGOAT

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Oct 27, 2017
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It would be huge if today can help change the narrative enough that people realize we can't be left in the dark about this just because of the midterms (or Giuliani). That would mean news releasing for the rest of the year that would really help midterm turnout numbers.

Also, I feel like Trump messing up like this would really ruin his chances of weaseling out of an interview.

Some folks have argued Mueller won’t subpoeana him because unlike Nixon and Clinton, Trump is someone who couldn’t give two shits and will fight it. And we don’t know the SCOTUS will rule. If Trump refuses what will happen, prison? Nope. Fines? He can pay them. So we are at a constitutional crisis.
 

Fenderputty

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Jan 15, 2018
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I don’t think Russia shit will play at the heart strings like ripping mother and children apart. It will be interesting to see but last I remember republicans were largely galvanizing around the idea that this is all BS. Part of that might be part identification embarrassment but .... I don’t now. Somone else said it best. I’ve lost the ability to gauge what should and will have an effect.
 

cubanb

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Oct 27, 2017
1,245
I keep seeing this... but I also haven't seen a case where he has actually been wrong. Am I missing something?
I used to enjoy following him, but he has long tweet threads with no great credentials. He does a great job at consolidating stories to put together a narrative... and many times it makes sense. In the end though, he is doing no real reporting, investigating, digging and that eventually puts him into the conspiracy blogger territory., He can link tweets and documents and create a real good story, but that is not the same thing as following a lead and being willing to publish it subject to your company's ethical standards.

He's basically a datascrapper relying on all data sources being authentic and not worrying about it past that
 
Oct 30, 2017
2,085
That latest indictment should be a hell of a smoking gun that the media should be latching on to. They want clear, undeniable evidence of collusion? Well, there it is. Too bad we all know they won't even report on it beyond today. That's part of the problem with this current news cycle. Every time something major happens that shows clearer links between Trump and the Russians, Trump himself overshadows it by doing something monumentally stupid, burying every other story.
 

thefit

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Oct 25, 2017
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I refuse to believe that even his staff were shocked by how poorly this went. Anyone around Trump on a regular basis would be fully aware of how hilariously incompetent he is. They have only themselves to blame if they had higher expectations.
Yeah I don’t beleive it either. I have a feeling they just don’t five a fuck anymore and are letting things play out while pretending to be shocked. We have had so much leading up to this that would have clued in anyone that actually cared about US interests to cancel and get on punishing Russia but here we are. We had the events on Friday and he still decided to do it. Everyone here knew how it was going to go down because this isn’t the first time he’s done the same with Putin at his side. I think the people around him just figured he’s such a shithead and everyone is used to it by now that it would blow over after the 24h news cycle is done with it and it still might actually happen. This is shocking but no one will care by weeks end. This is how fucked this country it right now
 

cubanb

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Oct 27, 2017
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That latest indictment should be a hell of a smoking gun that the media should be latching on to. They want clear, undeniable evidence of collusion? Well, there it is. Too bad we all know they won't even report on it beyond today. That's part of the problem with this current news cycle. Every time something major happens that shows clearer links between Trump and the Russians, Trump himself overshadows it by doing something monumentally stupid, burying every other story.
Yeah, we have had a long enough drip drip drip that until something absolute comes along, people will blow it off. We even have Trump/Putin saying things like they want to see the evidence. This is a key phrase to get stupid people on their side thinking they should be seeing every bit of evidence. It erases any trust in our judiciary and suggests that indictments include no shreds of evidence and carry no weight. Trump having multiple (Deep State) intelligence agencies say it IS Russia and they know for sure, but he refuses to accept reality. He hasn't seen a one arm man so wonders wheres the evidence? It is infuriating to watch.
 

Scottt

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Oct 25, 2017
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It's very strange right now that conversation of these events is about the country's media, rather than the country itself.
 

JayC3

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Oct 25, 2017
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I keep seeing this... but I also haven't seen a case where he has actually been wrong. Am I missing something?
Here are two articles that detail Seth Abramson's background and various ways that he has been wrong:
1. https://www.chronicle.com/article/What-Is-Seth-Abramson-Trying/240071
2. https://www.pastemagazine.com/artic...ning-to-seth-abramson-on-donald-trumps-r.html

But honestly, all you need to know is that he's the guy that kept writing for HuffingtonPost throughout the Democratic primaries stating that Bernie was actually the one who was winning and/or could still win, and then, once it was all over, claiming that he was engaging in "experimental journalism" and writing from a different but true metanarrative.
 

Joeytj

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Oct 30, 2017
3,183
Put me down on “this won’t change much” camp. I was hopefull just a few hours ago, but mostly hopeful this was not going to go away by tomorrow, even if I think it will mostly enrage and energize those that oppose him, not actually lower that approval raiting to 34% or less, or to even Recession Bush levels.

It might spark some action from some people that matter, but honestly, nothing hasn’t changed in terms of fundamentals — Muller still needs to finish the investigation, Democrats have to take back Congress, and just hope Trump screws up more and more without taking us with him.

Impeachment isn’t suddenly more likely because of this, not until after November. This might, though, make him commit even more mistakes, which could lead to some real long term damage.
 
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OG_Thrills

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Oct 27, 2017
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Put me down on “this won’t change much” camp. I was hopeful just a few hours ago, but mostly hopeful this was not going to go away by tomorrow, even if it think it will mostlty enrage and energize those that oppose him, not actually lower that approval raiting to 34% or less, or to even Recession Bush levels.

It might spark some action from some people that matter, but honestly, nothing hasn’t changed in terms of fundamentals — Muller still needs to finish the investigation, Democrats have to take back Congress, and just hope Trump screws up more and more without taking us with him.

Impeachment isn’t suddenly more likely because of this, not until afternoon November. This might, though, make him commit even more mistakes, which could lead to some real long term damage.
It has changed things. His support among Republicans wont change but at this particular juncture, that isn't something we need to factor in at this point. Yesterday, Trump was exposed on a global level, via a global platform, watched by a horrified global audience and that will have global ramifications. But more importantly, in domestic US politics, that effort to shut down the Muller investigation ended yesterday. No senator in their right mind will want to go near that.

The most powerful man in the world dismissed his own intelligence agency and law enforcement, outright. All while submitting to Putin. He did everything except get on his knees and ask Putin for his blessing.
 
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aspiegamer

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Oct 27, 2017
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ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
That's a pretty silly complaint about Sanders, but for someone who has an uphill fight to wash the stank of Russia off him for the 2020 campaign, it's a dangerous area for him.
 

Ac30

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Oct 30, 2017
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Ah so they going to pass more tax cuts to appease the base and anyone even having second thoughts about trump over this in the GOP. That's actually pretty smart. Trump's a Russian puppet? Who cares. More tax cuts.
Meanwhile premiums spike because of ACA fuckery and gas prices spike because of JCPOA fuckery. Tax cuts won’t save them
 
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