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US PoliERA 2018 |OT9| Next week has been EXHAUSTING
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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Yeah. Too bad about Iowa though. I heard it's a lost cause.
He doesn't and he says as much in the book He's frustrated because he felt like they gave Mueller what they felt was everything he asked for short of the interview with trump but Mueller didn't give an inch. And he speculates that it could mean Mueller has an ace in the hole that he's not aware of, so he goes into all of that.
At this point an IA-3 poll would be more useful. Can they switch over?
So we have an interested narrator--whose reputation is at stake--claiming he doesn't know enough to make a determination either way, but you've gleaned that the investigation is a dud based on just that?
C'mon. Unpack this some more for us
Awful takes. We also don't know how any of this will play out, so everyone needs to chill.
That and this is still developing so shit can change and more can come out.
This is such a boring shitshow. Just confirm him already so we can impeach/arrest him in 2020 or sooner/later.
He makes a determination, he thinks trump didn't collude. He didn't find anything to suggest that and just turned everything over to Mueller expecting a quick resolution That was a strategic mistake, of course, but with the access that he had to documents and transcripts, including the Flynn and comey stuff I would have expected a different legal strategy if he thought different about his client's culpability.
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So in this NJ07 poll, I think there's going to be a point where Malinowski takes over. Look at these crosstabs for non-white voters:
28 responses, 19% of the electorate, 42% Malinowski, 49% Lance
Tom is down by 5 with white voters, but down by 7 with non-white voters. And the Citizen Voting Age Population of NJ07?
Non-Hispanic White: 79.2
Black: 4.7
Latino: 8.1
Asian: 7.2
Other: 0.8
That is not a demographic cocktail that equal Lance getting 48% of non-white voters. Right now, that's being upweighted CONSIDERABLY because non-white voters are 18% of the NJ07 electorate. That will probably change when they do callbacks to those voters and I suspect that it'll end up being 55/38/7 or something for non white voters.
28 responses, 19% of the electorate, 42% Malinowski, 49% Lance
Tom is down by 5 with white voters, but down by 7 with non-white voters. And the Citizen Voting Age Population of NJ07?
Non-Hispanic White: 79.2
Black: 4.7
Latino: 8.1
Asian: 7.2
Other: 0.8
That is not a demographic cocktail that equal Lance getting 48% of non-white voters. Right now, that's being upweighted CONSIDERABLY because non-white voters are 18% of the NJ07 electorate. That will probably change when they do callbacks to those voters and I suspect that it'll end up being 55/38/7 or something for non white voters.
He could just be incompetent, which is the explanation most likely to fit Occam's Razor if you just consider how incompetent Trump's administration is.
If you're interested in a not so great interview, watch Clinton on Maddow right now.
This is the worst of Maddow - someone has a new book, or in this case a new edition of the book, and they sit for an interview. Not only did Clinton right away downplay the words she wrote in the book, Maddow keeps leading her with answering a question before asking it. The answers are measured, but with no sense of urgency or criticality. When asking about the future of the country and the threat of authoritarianism, you would think there would be more there.
This is the worst of Maddow - someone has a new book, or in this case a new edition of the book, and they sit for an interview. Not only did Clinton right away downplay the words she wrote in the book, Maddow keeps leading her with answering a question before asking it. The answers are measured, but with no sense of urgency or criticality. When asking about the future of the country and the threat of authoritarianism, you would think there would be more there.
Banned now, but to add something (hopefully) intelligent to what are otherwise stupid posts...
What's happening with Ford/Kavanaugh is what happens with a lot of sexual assaults/rapes, which is the victim is caught between trying to move on with their lives, and knowing that moving forward with a testimony or investigation will help others. When viewed in terms of Rape Culture, Ford's wavering on testifying (with or without the FBI investigating) is entirely understandable - it's hard to convince police to investigate, it's hard to convince a DA to prosecute, it's hard to convince a jury to convict. In this situation, with an obviously biased line-up of Old White Guys who have already made it clear they'll willingly believe whatever Kavanaugh tells them, as well as the obvious set-up of Ford testifying literally next to the person she's accusing, it's even worse.
Would it suck if, because she didn't testify, Kavanaugh was confirmed? Yes. But let no-one think this is an easy decision to make.
Couldn't Dowd just as easily believe Trump is guilty, but has to avoid the appearance of back-stabbing so that he can claim to still be a Conservative in good standing for work?
I'd wager the only people who truly appreciate the full extent of Trump's legal exposure are his kids, and anyone on the other end of his individual handshake deals. His legal representation never lasts because he can't tell the real truth to anyone 'clean'.
Sometimes I feel like I lose all context by adding people to my ignore list. I had to open this thread in another browser to figure out what was going on.
I mean, I guess?! It's not his book, I'm sure he did this on deep background or whatever but he didn't hold back on trump so I'm not sure how this would have helped in that scenario. My sense is that he probably wouldn't come out and accuse trump of being guilty if that's what he believed, but it's clear from the book he didn't believe that, and the level of cooperation with Mueller is tough to reconcile
He says trump is such a monumentally bad witness that he would certainly perjure himself if he talked to Mueller
Isn't there a link to unhide folks on your ignore list? Unless it's gone, mine always showed up at the bottom of the thread on the right hand side, above the comment box
Already the one talent he has emerges 50 days out: throwing people under the bus for something bad that happened to him, especially since he had a hand in it.
Did everyone see that it was SPECIFIC to DeSantis for standing by Reality reguarding the correct number of PR victims? How many #ETTD House flips in Florida could this make in light of even Curbelo looking a bit shaky?
But then again, they're ACTING like they want to lose the Senate, too so stands to reason.
The no hearing thing is depressing, but I don't blame Ford at all. This is all on the Republicans. Fuckers.
I think Dr Ford's lawyer is trying to avoid an Anita Hill circus where it turns into a character assassination game for the Republicans. Remember, Anita Hill took the lie detector test and Clarence Thomas refused to. But that was not enough even for 1991. It wont be for today either. I actually think the ball is in Kavanaugh's court and he should say he's willing to do an interview with FBI.
Watching Maddow and seeing Hillary Clinton being interviewed. What could of been.
I need a break. I don't want to think about this shit everyday.
I need a break. I don't want to think about this shit everyday.
You understand why no one took your opinion at face value, right? Particularly considering your history of waving off Mueller's case in your <300 posts
It's the old chestnut of "If you didn't do anything wrong, why are you afraid of talking to the authorities". But in this case, I think it's actually true. Not only is an Old(ish) White Guy not going to be coerced into giving a false statement, but he also flips the whole situation on its head - he can say "I did not do this. I believe something happened to Ford, but I did not do this, I am sympathetic to her pain, and will voluntarily talk to the FBI in order to facilitate this situation".
Unless, of course, he did it, in which case, he's a bit screwed if the FBI actually do their jobs.
Also, saw this on my Twitter timeline
There's literally nothing in the book to come to that conclusion even if for some crazy reason you take everyone's statements and proxy leaks at face value. The book is really not about that anyway.
sheesh do we have to wait till we all in our golden years for Texas to turn back blue?
sigh
Let's not feed the troll.
Kav and Ford testifying together is ridiculous. They don't even allow victims and abusers at the same table in regular testifying.
Kav and Ford testifying together is ridiculous. They don't even allow victims and abusers at the same table in regular testifying.
Woodward isn't a criminal investigator, so most fair-minded people wouldn't expect him to leave his professional lane to try and play one on TV.
People also forget that Woodward is known to stroke his sources' ego to protect his access and create a port in a storm for people who may provide information at a later time, or for a different project.
He isn't a disinterested scribe
Let's cheer up with some good Arizona polls!
AZ SEN/GOV TargetSmart:
https://progressnowarizona.org/2018...ck-with-doug-ducey-in-arizona-governors-race/
SEN Sinema 51 McSally 46
GOV Ducey 49 Garcia 48
AZ SEN/GOV TargetSmart:
https://progressnowarizona.org/2018...ck-with-doug-ducey-in-arizona-governors-race/
SEN Sinema 51 McSally 46
GOV Ducey 49 Garcia 48
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