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US PoliEra 2019 |OT10| Go Absent Yourself

patientzero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,942
Amazon's new move The Report is right up this threads alley. All about the CIA torture stuff from Bush years and the Senate intel investigation. Goes from 2001-2014. Half the people in it are still in congress it seems.
Supplemental watching, hard as it may be, ought to include Winterbottom's The Road to Guantanamo and Gibney's Taxi to the Darkside. Also look into reading the Senate Intelligence Committee report as well as the one authored by the Senate Armed Services Committee. Whatever her flaws, Feinstein's work to push the report into the public eye is to be commended.
 

GrapeApes

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,399

Harry Reid is old AF. Why is he not running for President?
 

Gotchaye

Member
Oct 27, 2017
320
Biden vs Sanders would be such a hard call. Neither one seems competent to be president. One way we probably get like Clinton-era appointees and the other we get very honorable ones. I guess I lean towards Biden and at least maybe we'll get a public option out of it.
 

Aaron

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,549
All that would have needed to happen for me to not post that is a surprise Feingold win

Fucking Wisconsin

(also Feingold’s 2010 loss is why I’m not super sympathetic to the “Don’t worry, the polls just aren’t picking up the youth turnout that will put Bernie ahead!” line of reasoning, because that’s the exact same shit Feingold spent the 2010 campaign saying about his internal polls)
 

Kaitos

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,999
There's a reddening of Nevada happening?
Has Nevada been reddening? Last year was a blue wave up and down the ticket.

I don’t not believe you, maybe that’s just my incredibly surface level read of things.
Obama won by 7.2% in 2008, he won NV by 12.5% (so it was 5.3% to the left of the country).

Obama won 3.9% in 2012, he won NV by 6.68% (so it was 2.78% to the left of the country).

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, she won NV by 1.5% (so it was 0.6% to the right of the country)

All of the House seats were contested by both parties in 2018 -- Dems won 51.13% to 45.77%. That's D+5.36%. Even if you want to be super generous to Republicans in uncontested seats and assume that it would've been D+7% if all seats would've been contested, that's still to the right of the lean in 2016.

It's a super worrying trend.
 

patientzero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,942
sometimes im walking to university when my brain reminds me of this

and then i laugh
Haven't you mentioned multiple times being roughly 10 during Obama's first election, meaning you have no contemporaneous idea of the ramifications of the 2000 election, 9/11, the 2003 Iraq invasion, Abu Ghraib, Hurrican Katrina, and the 08 recession, let alone the Tea Party's ascension in 2010?

Hardly seems laughable when a lot of folk lived through those eras, let alone the ones who died.
 

NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,860
Obama won by 7.2% in 2008, he won NV by 12.5% (so it was 5.3% to the left of the country).

Obama won 3.9% in 2012, he won NV by 6.68% (so it was 2.78% to the left of the country).

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, she won NV by 1.5% (so it was 0.6% to the right of the country)

All of the House seats were contested by both parties in 2018 -- Dems won 51.13% to 45.77%. That's D+5.36%. Even if you want to be super generous to Republicans in uncontested seats and assume that it would've been D+7% if all seats would've been contested, that's still to the right of the lean in 2016.

It's a super worrying trend.
Could be California conservatives hopping across the border?
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,699
sometimes im walking to university when my brain reminds me of this

and then i laugh
Sometimes I'm reading this forum and I'm reminded of how this is just a sports game to a lot of outside observers.
All that would have needed to happen for me to not post that is a surprise Feingold win

Fucking Wisconsin

(also Feingold’s 2010 loss is why I’m not super sympathetic to the “Don’t worry, the polls just aren’t picking up the youth turnout that will put Bernie ahead!” line of reasoning, because that’s the exact same shit Feingold spent the 2010 campaign saying about his internal polls)
Also Kerry. Also 2016 polls being dead on. Also literally every election year ever in the past century.
 

Chaos Legion

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,759
Ideal VP for Bernie:



Ideal VP for Biden:

I'm not big brain enough, but other than appealing to the internet, why would Abrams be a better pick than Mayor Bottoms for Biden?
She endorsed Biden immediately after the Kamala takedown, stumps for Biden nationally and in SC, is close with the family (sitting with Biden's wife at the debate) and being mayor of Atlanta, will definitely help with GA.
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,699
I don't think Stacey Abrams actually makes sense as a pick outside the internet commentary bubble, much like Klobuchar only made sense as a candidate within it.
 

lenovox1

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,885
63 days until Iowa, and 10 days until the December debate cutoff. Only the following candidates are confirmed:

Joe Biden
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

Steyer needs to hit the donor cutoff, Yang needs one more poll, and Russian Nesting Doll needs both one more poll and the donations. Booker has the donations but zero polls. Bloomberg will not debate.
Let's hope this holds.
 

FreezePeach

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,361
Supplemental watching, hard as it may be, ought to include Winterbottom's The Road to Guantanamo and Gibney's Taxi to the Darkside. Also look into reading the Senate Intelligence Committee report as well as the one authored by the Senate Armed Services Committee. Whatever her flaws, Feinstein's work to push the report into the public eye is to be commended.
Yeah i saw both those movies some years back.
 

Kaitos

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,999
63 days until Iowa, and 10 days until the December debate cutoff. Only the following candidates are confirmed:

Joe Biden
Pete Buttigieg
Kamala Harris
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Elizabeth Warren

Steyer needs to hit the donor cutoff, Yang needs one more poll, and Russian Nesting Doll needs both one more poll and the donations. Booker has the donations but zero polls. Bloomberg will not debate.
My guess is Steyer and Yang make it.
 

Madison

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
6,665
Lima, Peru
Haven't you mentioned multiple times being roughly 10 during Obama's first election, meaning you have no contemporaneous idea of the ramifications of the 2000 election, 9/11, the 2003 Iraq invasion, Abu Ghraib, Hurrican Katrina, and the 08 recession, let alone the Tea Party's ascension in 2010?

Hardly seems laughable when a lot of folk lived through those eras, let alone the ones who died.
Well, Im going to explain myself here because there are multiple elements at play. One is that I generally try to laugh at the world tragedies because otherwise the crushing weight of our own self-destruction and the incoming climate apocalypse would make me a lot sadder very quickly.

But, being more specific, what I find funny about that image is that I can definitely imagine myself feeling in the exact same way had i been born ten years earlier. I see Aaron"s reaction to 2010 and I can picture myself feeling the same exact way. In a way it feels both incredibly close to our current issues yet also a million years away.

I do try to inform myself about the past and ive read a bunch about it, but yes, its not a period i had to consciously face. Which means that, while said image was funny to me because of a weird connection I could make with it, I also understand that its possible that the memories it brings to other people are ones of despair and sadness. If thats the case, I apologize.


Sometimes I'm reading this forum and I'm reminded of how this is just a sports game to a lot of outside observers.
I come from theatre, where one of the main ideas our professor taught us was how much laughter could do when it comes to the political. Ive always tried to apply that to my life. If you found my comment stupid, I understand and Im sorry, but dont imply that this is a game to me because I tried to cheer myself up, because you simply do not know.
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,699
I come from theatre, where one of the main ideas our professor taught us was how much laughter could do when it comes to the political. Ive always tried to apply that to my life. If you found my comment stupid, I understand and Im sorry, but dont imply that this is a game to me because I tried to cheer myself up, because you simply do not know.
I found it cruel.
 

Aaron

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,549
Obama won by 7.2% in 2008, he won NV by 12.5% (so it was 5.3% to the left of the country).

Obama won 3.9% in 2012, he won NV by 6.68% (so it was 2.78% to the left of the country).

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, she won NV by 1.5% (so it was 0.6% to the right of the country)

All of the House seats were contested by both parties in 2018 -- Dems won 51.13% to 45.77%. That's D+5.36%. Even if you want to be super generous to Republicans in uncontested seats and assume that it would've been D+7% if all seats would've been contested, that's still to the right of the lean in 2016.

It's a super worrying trend.
Not to take away from your point, but Bush did win the state as well. It actually voted ever so slightly to the right of the country in 04, while in 00 it was about five points to the right.

I dunno, I guess that colored my view of Nevada as a swing state that I’m not really sure what to infer from all of it.
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,892
Honestly... I look at politics now as just getting a Democrat in office just to stop the republicans from turning this country into shit. I do not expect democrats to do anything life changing, just stop the republicans from criming and grifting the world.
I honestly don’t care if it is Kamala or Biden or whoever. Just anyone that will stop the bleeding.
 

theprodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
413
You know I interpreted that post as being like "you thought this was bad, then Trump happened lol", the actual explanation seems less favorable!
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,656
Honestly... I look at politics now as just getting a Democrat in office just to stop the republicans from turning this country into shit. I do not expect democrats to do anything life changing, just stop the republicans from criming and grifting the world.
I honestly don’t care if it is Kamala or Biden or whoever. Just anyone that will stop the bleeding.
Even if all Democrats did was just "stop Republican crimes and grifts" (which I think is dramatically underselling the work of the Obama administration or the bills passed this year alone by the House), then would still be pretty life changing! Certainly not trying to cut the social safety net via ACA repeals and Medicaid block grants and eliminating fuckin Meals on Wheels would save a lot of lives.
 

Dream Machine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,559
Honestly... I look at politics now as just getting a Democrat in office just to stop the republicans from turning this country into shit. I do not expect democrats to do anything life changing, just stop the republicans from criming and grifting the world.
I honestly don’t care if it is Kamala or Biden or whoever. Just anyone that will stop the bleeding.
If you're just wanting someone to come in and not do anything, then that just makes the republicans more likely to take power back in the future. Democrats need to start playing offense and try to achieve things. We're in the fourth quarter here.
You know I interpreted that post as being like "you thought this was bad, then Trump happened lol", the actual explanation seems less favorable!
Idk, seems like a lighthearted comment either way
 

patientzero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,942
I do try to inform myself about the past and ive read a bunch about it, but yes, its not a period i had to consciously face. Which means that, while said image was funny to me because of a weird connection I could make with it, I also understand that its possible that the memories it brings to other people are ones of despair and sadness. If thats the case, I apologize.
Fair enough.

Just keep in mind that for those of us that have been in this fight before you knew it was a fight accrued uncountable cultural, generational traumas. They informed us, shaped us, and ultimately twisted us.

I was born in 1986, became aware of the situation we face during the Clinton years, survived the Bush years. For those of us that confronted the maelstrom, we emerged broken but resolved and it is galling to see a bunch of young upstarts act as if we didn't make an effort, that we didn't try and strive, that we couldn't fight it to a standstill because it's too goddamn big for a single cohort. That we don't get it, that we're too centrist, that we didn't die a little with every barb and arrow.
 

Wraith

Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,189
Honestly... I look at politics now as just getting a Democrat in office just to stop the republicans from turning this country into shit. I do not expect democrats to do anything life changing, just stop the republicans from criming and grifting the world.
I honestly don’t care if it is Kamala or Biden or whoever. Just anyone that will stop the bleeding.
Patching the boat will be important. But does that get people motivated and/or excited to vote?
 

Kaitos

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,999
Not to take away from your point, but Bush did win the state as well. It actually voted ever so slightly to the right of the country in 04, while in 00 it was about five points to the right.

I dunno, I guess that colored my view of Nevada as a swing state that I’m not really sure what to infer from all of it.
I think just that it’s a state we can’t take for granted in our column — I feel safer about Minnesota than Nevada.
 

lenovox1

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,885
Obama won by 7.2% in 2008, he won NV by 12.5% (so it was 5.3% to the left of the country).

Obama won 3.9% in 2012, he won NV by 6.68% (so it was 2.78% to the left of the country).

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, she won NV by 1.5% (so it was 0.6% to the right of the country)

All of the House seats were contested by both parties in 2018 -- Dems won 51.13% to 45.77%. That's D+5.36%. Even if you want to be super generous to Republicans in uncontested seats and assume that it would've been D+7% if all seats would've been contested, that's still to the right of the lean in 2016.

It's a super worrying trend.
I don't think that's a trend. I think that's representative based on demographics and population density. Nevada is veeeeeerrrrrrry white and rural outside of Clark and Washoe Counties. And Washoe County and southern Clark County is still very white.

The turnout of Las Vegas and it's surrounding cities and communities most effect how red the state leans, and nearly nothing else.

It is no coincidence that the only Republican representative of the state represents the entirety of northern Nevada which includes Reno and Carson City.

The other three that have any piece of Clark County lean D.

I'd think of Nevada like a burgeoning Illinois.

I think just that it’s a state we can’t take for granted in our column — I feel safer about Minnesota than Nevada.
As long as Latinos turn out in the same way they did in the past two national elections, Donald Trump isn't winning.

And living in Clark County, the White folks here haven't "snapped back" electorally. All of the recent local elections have been going blue.
 

Aaron

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,549
I think just that it’s a state we can’t take for granted in our column — I feel safer about Minnesota than Nevada.
Oh absolutely.

You hate to see it: Roll Call shifts a dozen House races towards the Democrats

  • Arizona’s 6th District (David Schweikert, R) From Solid Republican to Likely Republican
  • California’s 25th (Vacant, D) Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
  • Illinois’ 6th (Sean Casten, D) Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
  • Illinois’ 13th (Rodney Davis, R) Tilts Republican to Toss-up
  • Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D) Toss-up to Tilts Democratic
  • Iowa’s 4th (Steve King, R) Leans Republican to Tilts Republican
  • Michigan’s 8th (Elissa Slotkin, D) Tilts Democratic to Leans Democratic
  • Michigan’s 11th (Haley Stevens, D) Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
  • Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R) Leans Republican to Tilts Republican
  • Minnesota’s 2nd (Angie Craig, DFL) Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
  • New Hampshire’s 1st (Chris Pappas, D) Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
  • Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D) Tilts Democratic to Leans Democratic
They only shifted one race to the right. MN-7 went from Lean D to Tilt D.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,703
if we are at the point where we are worrying about Nevada and Minnesota then it’s already over

basically fight for the ones we actually lost and aim for others. If we’re winning Wisconsin we aren’t losing Minnesota so I don’t think there’s much to worry about those states in particular because if we fix the issues elsewhere those will be fine
 

Drakeon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,106
Obama won by 7.2% in 2008, he won NV by 12.5% (so it was 5.3% to the left of the country).

Obama won 3.9% in 2012, he won NV by 6.68% (so it was 2.78% to the left of the country).

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, she won NV by 1.5% (so it was 0.6% to the right of the country)

All of the House seats were contested by both parties in 2018 -- Dems won 51.13% to 45.77%. That's D+5.36%. Even if you want to be super generous to Republicans in uncontested seats and assume that it would've been D+7% if all seats would've been contested, that's still to the right of the lean in 2016.

It's a super worrying trend.
I mean, we just elected a Dem Governor for the first time in decades. Along with that, a bunch of pro-democracy reforms (same day voter registration, giving everyone the right to vote (even those felons on probation/parole, which is a change for NV) and I'm sure I'm missing others). Not to say don't worry, but things are being done to keep NV blue.