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US PoliEra 2019 |OT10| Go Absent Yourself

Everyday Math

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,309
So there was a school shooting at the high school my brother and sister go to. Thankfully the school officer stopped it before it could get worse. Only the officer and the armed student were injured.

It’s infuriating that the WI GOP continues to stifle gun control laws. Fucking sick of it.
My siblings could’ve been hurt and they don’t care.
 

ValiantChaos

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
648
Kind of bummed that we won't see Kamala on the debate stage again, particularly when fuckin Steyer and Tulsi will still be there. We're overdue to thin out the number of people in these things, but losing Kamala, Castro, and Booker (who seems unlikely to make the cut) while still having Tulsi and Steyer in there is ridiculous.



There's still time for things to change but I'm also feeling this more and more. His grip on a plurality of the base, especially among older black voters and non-college white voters, just seems insurmountable.
See if you prepare for it now and if/when it happens you won't be shocked by it. That line has been said for months and its quickly getting to the point where hes still poll after poll nationally in the lead. IA and NH may not do anything to affect his ironclad AA base
 

shadow_shogun

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,229
@kylegriffin1
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Romney: "I saw no evidence from our intelligence community nor from our representatives today from the Dept. of State that there is any evidence of any kind that suggests Ukraine interfered in our elections. We have ample evidence that Russia interfered."
 

Tamanon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,966
Yup. Only five candidates now.

Yang and Gabbard each need one more poll and Steyer needs to hit the donor requirement, but I'll choose to be optimistic and assume none of them make it.
Steyer is weird. He’s raised so much money but suddenly can’t hit the donor limit. There’s gotta be something shady he was doing for donations.
 

Melkr_

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,507
Finally listening to black women? That doesn’t sound like a Bernie play.
Imagine the irony of saying this while at the same time hating on Nina Turner daily.

I could see her people getting split pretty evenly among everyone (except Bernie). Warren, Biden, Pete, Booker, Tulsi, Bloomberg, and Yang all about to get a 0.5% bump
Nah, most will go to Warren, which will be noticeable. Biden and Bernie might get bumps too. Pete will get nothing, the whites that abandoned Kamala for Warren and then for him are already on his side.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,948
To be honest all these other candidates need to get the meme and drop out as well. That should have been the case after Beto dropped out.
 

Lucky Forward

Member
Oct 27, 2017
662
Meanwhile, in Baltimore...

Young Warns Residents Of Abductions, Police Dispute It

Baltimore City Mayor Bernard C. "Jack" Young warned residents of abductions for human trafficking and other things, but police are disputing it.

Young told WBAL-TV 11's Vanessa Herring, "We're getting reports of somebody in a white van trying to snatch up young girls for human trafficking and for selling body parts."
He went on to say the reports are all over Facebook and, "that's something that our police officers are aware of because it's been reported," according to Herring. Young warned residents to look out and not to park next to a white van.

However, a Baltimore Police Department spokesman told Herring the department does know of the social media postings, but they do not have any actual reported incidents.


A spokesman for the mayor's office then told Herring Young was only making a general comment and was not addressing a specific incident.
 

lmcfigs

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,773
Endorsements never matter. Remember the AOC bump that never happened? 95% of the times it’s support overlap.
that's kind of hard to decipher isn't it? since it happened after he had a heart attack. Maybe Bernie would've completely tanked if it wasn't for the string of endorsements he got right after.
Here's hoping Gabbard and Yang don't qualify...


Could be worse than 1/4.
that's true. it was just funny who his top picks were. and of course, Booker is struggling as well.
 

Seeya

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,067
Endorse Bernie, queen!
Interesting note from the latest CNN poll

  • Our poll tested what would happen if all but the top four polling Democratic candidates dropped out of the primary. It turns out that the race would be relatively similar with Biden at 35%, Sanders at 23%, Warren at 20% and Buttigieg at 17%.
Looks like it could end up the Sanders/Warrens versus the Bidens/Buitigiegs

43/52

Granted we’re a ways off without a ton of decided voters. It does look like Warrens cross over appeal has diminished greater, just by looking at that top 4 spread.

Warren really ducked up on how she went about M4A. Instead of gaining votes by trying to pivot and placate both sides she’s been in a small free fall ever since. This feels like the DNA test thing all over again, unforced error.
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,884
So there was a school shooting at the high school my brother and sister go to. Thankfully the school officer stopped it before it could get worse. Only the officer and the armed student were injured.

It’s infuriating that the WI GOP continues to stifle gun control laws. Fucking sick of it.
My siblings could’ve been hurt and they don’t care.
I just saw that a bit ago. I live in Appleton and my wife works in Oshkosh, so it’s close to home and scary shit. i don’t know how I’ll deal with this sort of thing when my son has to go to school.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
9,746
that's kind of hard to decipher isn't it? since it happened after he had a heart attack. Maybe Bernie would've completely tanked if it wasn't for the string of endorsements he got right after.

that's true. it was just funny who his top picks were. and of course, Booker is struggling as well.
I feel like that was more an if-then list. If Biden hadn't run then one of those three likely would've benefited in the end.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
9,746
She endorsed him and has been campaigning for him. Since then his numbers have come back up and he’s in second place?
Nope. His 19% bump didn't happen in the economist average, and only happened in the RCP average because of a few outlier polls for a couple days. He's back down to 16%. I mean, he's in second, but that's because Warren dropped like a rock.
 

metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,888
Fucking dumb that while Kamala and Beto dropped out we still have Gabbard hanging around. For that matter Klobuchar, Booker, Castro should also all drop out.

Anyway I'm not so sure that Kamala wouldn't be a good VP candidate for Biden or Beto.
 

lmcfigs

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,773
I wonder if we just keep posting gross pictures of Biden popping his eyeball or sucking a finger, if it will gross people out enough to not vote for him
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,659
Warren really ducked up on how she went about M4A. Instead of gaining votes by trying to pivot and placate both sides she’s been in a small free fall ever since. This feels like the DNA test thing all over again, unforced error.
When nearly the entire debate stage is attacking you for how you will pay for M4A, and you have not just Republican groups but *other Democratic campaigns* running anti-M4A ads in the early states, it is not an unforced error to try and square the circle on explaining how the policy would feasibly work and be funded. What would be the actual error is if she stayed full steam ahead and continued to deflect M4A questions with "total household costs will go down" over and over.

The DNA test was not an unforced error either. She had to address it! The question of her Native American ancestry was never going to stop being a thing in the press until she addressed it head on. The same reason Obama had to finally put out his birth certificate. And if you've noticed, the scandal has all but disappeared in Warren's press coverage for much of the year. That wouldn't be the case if she'd left it as a lingering topic.
 

minato

Member
Oct 27, 2017
219
Well South Carolina just got harder for everyone not named Biden. She was probably going to get 5 -10% support depending on how she did in Iowa I imagine. I assume most of that support will go to Biden. With Warren falling sightly I hope somehow Booker gets a surprising good showing at Iowa. Otherwise I don't see anyone beating Biden.
 

Melkr_

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,507
Nope. His 19% bump didn't happen in the economist average, and only happened in the RCP average because of a few outlier polls for a couple days. He's back down to 16%. I mean, he's in second, but that's because Warren dropped like a rock.
That poll of polls is trash. Warren is still at 18% when she hasn't reached that number in any of their last 7 polls lmao. They are still weigthing her October numbers it seems?

The RCP poll also accurately showed Bernie's post heartattack downturn and consecuent uptick.

Anyway national averages are irrelevant right now. What matters is Iowa, NH and Nevada. In such a tight race, who wins those 3 states will be the tie-breaker.
 

fragamemnon

Member
Nov 30, 2017
228
Harris made some rookie mistakes, but honestly had a good platform and stump when she went unfiltered. Shame she couldn't get to the next debate but the bad press likely seized up all fundraising and paralyzed her operation.

There wasn't time to fix the dysfunction and still win.

Amy is my number one pick since this show started, and has one last chance in the debate to start a late surge at Pete's expense.
 

wesker83

Member
Dec 3, 2018
373
Not my first pick to be the candidate, but still disappointed Harris dropped out. I still think she would have given Trump the most problems as far as attacks go. He always seemed kind of confused on how to attack her without sounding blatantly racist or sexist.