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US PoliEra 2019 |OT10| Go Absent Yourself

JesseEwiak

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,299
That poll of polls is trash. Warren is still at 18% when she hasn't reached that number in any of their last 7 polls lmao. They are still weigthing her October numbers it seems?

The RCP poll also accurately showed Bernie's post heartattack downturn and consecuent uptick.

Anyway national averages are irrelevant right now. What matters is Iowa, NH and Nevada. In such a tight race, who wins those 3 states will be the tie-breaker.
None of those states will matter if Biden keeps his current support among black voters, which sees no evidence of dropping. I somehow doubt the people behind Biden are going to be convinced to vote for Bernie if he beats Biden by 3% in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Nevada.
 

SpitztheGreat

Member
May 16, 2019
1,425
Regarding Harris before she's old news: She can claim that she's dropping out because the campaign's broke, but I don't buy it. Sure, it played a part, but the revelations over the last week about the campaign and how it treats staff have a more insidious impact on the internal workings of the campaign. If they had been broke, but working in harmony, she would have stayed in it no doubt. But these revelations were causing her embarrassment in ways that being a poor fundraiser wasn't. Harris, for all of her flaws, strikes me as a self reflective person, so there's no way that this kind of thing wouldn't cause her distress. IMO she was smart to get out now so that she can lick her wounds and regroup for whatever comes next. If she had stayed in, despite all of the shit around her, only to limp home in Iowa with a <5% share in the Caucus, it would have damaged her professionally. In this way she's similar to Gillibrand, they're both important in the Senate but were damaging their reputation with their Presidential campaign. Better to get out early so that everyone forgets what a trainwreck you were and you can continue on as an important person in the Senate.
 

Wonderment

Moderator
Oct 27, 2017
10,563
Surprise, surprise. People aren't interested in how to pay for things after all, even if they won't be the ones paying. They just don't want to hear, face, or deal with any of it. But they sure do want to have "a choice".

Except in their own households, when they will either a) go without and get/stay ill, or b) get treatment even if it will ruin the rest of their lives. That's a choice too, but one hell of a choice to have to face and make, all because they become unlucky.

In the meantime everyone else argues whether everyone else who is not in this position should have a choice and what form it should take, because somehow that is more important. The campaigning in this cycle surrounding healthcare, and really in the past decade, has been terrible.

Maybe someone will come up with a plan that actually does the right thing within the first two years of the administration (that isn't merit or choice based either: being unlucky should be "meritorious" enough, and being cornered to go without shouldn't be a choice), then circles back to handle the long-term choice/coverage migrations that everyone else is so worried about.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,704
Endorsements do actually help and do matter. She just squandered all the support assets, resources and good moments she had by running a horrible campaign and really just by being kind of a dork
 

Kaitos

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,011
That poll of polls is trash. Warren is still at 18% when she hasn't reached that number in any of their last 7 polls lmao. They are still weigthing her October numbers it seems?

The RCP poll also accurately showed Bernie's post heartattack downturn and consecuent uptick.

Anyway national averages are irrelevant right now. What matters is Iowa, NH and Nevada. In such a tight race, who wins those 3 states will be the tie-breaker.
There is so much wrong with this post! Melkr, it's okay to root for your guy, but you also can't ignore data you don't like. That's your job for Media Create threads.
 

Dream Machine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,566
Rather than "endorsements don't matter" full stop, I would say that vague and/or early endorsements don't matter. If it's someone who's going to really fight for you and spread the word, that helps. If it's just an "I approve" stamp, then that's basically nothing.

How many of kamala's endorsements were super early after she had that big rally for her announcement?
 

thefro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,172
Harris had a bunch because she's a Senator in the biggest state population-wise in the country. That wasn't indicative of national establishment support.
 

Crocodile

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,363
The difference between the Harris campaign that was and the campaign that could have been are so vast that I find this early drop out to be disappointing. She had made the next debate too! FWIW, I think things would have gone way better if she leaned into the "I'm a cop/prosecutor" rather than being afraid of the moniker (at least she seemed that way near the start).
 

pigeon

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,475
Do you think the situation where Bernie wins the nomination with 30% of the vote is going to be a good thing for the unity of the party?
hot take this should actually be fine if the technocrats would live up to their commitment to party success over specific policy achievements, and your skepticism is both accurate and revealing
 

Aaron

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,549

Crystal Ball ratings changes in North Carolina.

Ted Budd (R, NC-13) - Likely R -> Safe R
George Holding (R, NC-2) - Likely R -> Safe D
Richard Hudson (R, NC-8) - Safe R -> Likely R
Mark Walker (R, NC-6) - Safe R -> Safe D

+2 for the Democrats from the new maps.
 

JesseEwiak

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,299
hot take this should actually be fine if the technocrats would live up to their commitment to party success over specific policy achievements, and your skepticism is both accurate and revealing
I think any nominee that doesn't have a strong majority is a bad idea for the health of the party, but it's only Bernie supporters openly unhappy on this thread that more people who will split the anti-their candidate vote are dropping out.

I mean, the most likely result still seems to be Biden ending up with 50%+ of the vote after Super Tuesday, so this may be all moot.
 

HotHamBoy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,910
Does anyone else have short bouts of political hopelessness? I just don’t see how we get out of this tailspin of corruption, polarization, and climatological catastrophe.
You're justified in your hoplessness. The problems go far beyond Trump and the rot is institutional. The trend towards fascism is global.

Electing a democrat POTUS will certainly slow the bleeding but i don't think we can do much more than delay the inevitable.

Hell, if the Neo-Nazis don't kill us the climate change will.
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,099
It sure would be nice if Nunes would at least be held to account for his actions. Dude's been involved since the start, but he's been allowed to keep hanging around, trying to throw wrenches in the process.
 

Allard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
510
It sure would be nice if Nunes would at least be held to account for his actions. Dude's been involved since the start, but he's been allowed to keep hanging around, trying to throw wrenches in the process.
Hopefully its enough to refer him to house ethics investigation and used as leverage to get him off comittees. The guy is clearly trying to subvert congresses power for the executive offices personal gain. Biggest problem of course is McCarthy, he is too much of a coward to do anything about it since he allowed that asshole Gym Jordan on the comittee for the impeachment process when he shouldn't have been there.