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NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,508
Biden/Harris but they move a little more toward Sanders/Warren on domestic policy, that probably wins enough voters over to beat Trump, tbh.
 

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,705
Lmao, I just read the comments on the original Parscale post and people are pointing out that obviously as you know, OK-5 was won by Trump by like 13 points, this poll has her down by.....7. (42/49 GOP)
Impeachment approval/disapproval is 45/52. Like, this really doesn't show what you think it shows Brad 😂
He doesn't even have the incumbent down by 7. He has "Democrat" down by 7.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,614
Bloomberg/Tulsis is actually the depths of hell itself when it comes the primary.
 

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,614
Any realistic chance that Democrats lose the House next year? I want to hear some opinions on this. Feels like everyone has just accepted that Dems will keep the House next year and there isn't much discussion over it.
 

Kaitos

Tens across the board!
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
14,705
Any realistic chance that Democrats lose the House next year? I want to hear some opinions on this. Feels like everyone has just accepted that Dems will keep the House next year and there isn't much discussion over it.

My guess is Democrats, give the GCB, probably have like a 60-75% chance to keep the House next year. My guess is they'll lose a few seats if the margin is like, Dem+4, but ultimately stay above 218.
 

dlauv

Prophet of Truth - One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,509
Any realistic chance that Democrats lose the House next year? I want to hear some opinions on this. Feels like everyone has just accepted that Dems will keep the House next year and there isn't much discussion over it.

Depends on how bad Biden does in the GE. I'd say we're looking pretty good as of right now.
 

adam387

Member
Nov 27, 2017
5,215
I am still sick and I haven't slept in days

I CALL OUT THIS EVIL UPON YOU ALL

Cool-Text-343455880197425.png
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Any realistic chance that Democrats lose the House next year? I want to hear some opinions on this. Feels like everyone has just accepted that Dems will keep the House next year and there isn't much discussion over it.
Of course anything's possible, but it's not terribly likely we lose the House. The GOP need 19 seats to start off. They're guaranteed to lose two seats in NC, probably lose TX-23 and at least one other TX seat. That 19 seats they need - a big swing in a presidential year - suddenly turns into closer to 25.
 

MetalGearZed

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,927
Lol


I honestly had no idea what the exact line was that Trump and co. were so clearly concern trolling about until this moment and it's even less than I thought.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Also, uh:


The GOP's own internal polling (rosier picture for them) only shows an R+7 GCB in an R+10 district Trump won by 13 points.

And as another Twitter person quoted said, the GOP going "Dems should change their strategy!!!!" (subtext: please please please don't impeach him) doesn't exactly imply much real confidence on their part. It's bravado.
 

JesseEwiak

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,781
Any realistic chance that Democrats lose the House next year? I want to hear some opinions on this. Feels like everyone has just accepted that Dems will keep the House next year and there isn't much discussion over it.

I mean - there's always a possibility. Biden could go off the rails, Bernie could admit he wants to collectivize the kulaks, Warren could be slightly more shrill, it could come out Mayor Pete is still on Grindr, but in a normal, close election, probably not.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
Reminder the House hasn't flipped in a presidential year since 1952 and normally swings maybe high-single digits or low teens in presidential years. 2008 was an anomaly in that regard.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,729
To phrase my posts another way and quote someone more authoritative:


If you are telling Dem strategists that OK-05 (Trump+14, Romney+19) is 45% pro-impeach, I'm guessing they are going to feel pretty darn good about holding the majority.

OK-05 is changing, but it's still a red R+10 district Trump won by double digits. If the best they can do to scare us is show a poll of a red district we won in an upset - not even a true swing district like, say, NJ-07 or something - showing impeachment at 45% approval...
 
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