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US PoliEra 2019 |OT10| Go Absent Yourself
- Thread starter TheHunter
- Start date
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I don't see how.
It's NAFTA 2.0. No one will give a shit a few months from now. If anything, I think there is a lot more potential damage if they don't sign it.
Also, this is something worth watching
I actually don't think the USMCA is that confusing. It removes a GOP talking point (Dems did NOTHING but impeachment!) You don't get to change that narrative by pointing at all the bills you passed that the Senate refused to take up. It's mildly positive, mostly harmless. It lets your more vulnerable reps go back to their districts and say, ya, sure, I supported impeachment, but I was willing to work with Trump on "XYZ." And, again, going back and pointing out all the bills you voted for that were DOA in the Senate doesn't help your case that much. AFL-CIO seems to be on board with it.
This election is not going to be won or lost on some trade deal that 90% of Americans don't know shit about. Trump would simply make up victories one way or another. If there's a chance to get beneficial legislation and/or concessions that actually improve peoples lives...then we should do it.
This election is not going to be won or lost on some trade deal that 90% of Americans don't know shit about. Trump would simply make up victories one way or another. If there's a chance to get beneficial legislation and/or concessions that actually improve peoples lives...then we should do it.
???
What is the point of giving Trump any policy win that Democrats will never get any credit for?
Yes, I'm absolutely sure they will never say that after Dems pass USMCA
Neither Trump nor the mainstream media will allow everyone to forget about it. It'll be the big thing he campaigns on. "Greatest Trade Deal Ever! And your favorite President delivered it!"
As I said earlier, Repubs would never in a million years agree to this under any circumstance were Dems in charge.
This. He's been touting nonexistent deals with China and others already, so at least make some progress for American people and also have a solid talking point for your own reelection.
Well, what's worse? Trump claiming that the Democrats stonewalled a new trade agreement or proclaiming how great it is, when it's barely any different from NAFTA? You know- The worst trade deal ever written.
I'll take my chances with letting him fall on his own sword for the 489729824th time.
Pretty sure not giving him a tangible policy to campaign on in the Midwest is better than giving him a tangible policy to campaign on in the Midwest.
Again, you could easily argue the opposite- That him boasting that there is a perfectly good trade deal on the table that the Democrats refuse to sign is equally as, if not more, damaging.
In fact, I would make that very argument.
fuck off biden.
the GoP is a flailing beast attempting to not forget into the irrelevance of time.
It's quite obvious the new parties that will emerge will be born from the democratic party splitting.
biden and pelosi schumer clinton style dems. AKA MODERATE REPUPBILCANS
younger new gen dems and dinosaur bernie become the left leaning dems.
Considering I haven't heard Trump once crowing about USMCA, I am skeptical he'll run on it. Honestly, I kind of think he forgot about it. Besides, any legislation he passes is likely to be forgotten almost immediately due to Impeachment.
Exactly.
Argue this on the merits, not what you think optimal political strategy should be.
Of course they'll say it, but then we have a tangible thing to point back at and say "nu-uh"
And it'd be a thing that will actually be taken up in the Senate! This is really not that complicated.
One year ago Trumps approval was tanking because of the government shutdown. Within like a month his numbers had recovered to his normal baseline. So you really think something 10x less impactful in the public psyche is going to change anything?
Democrats aren't going to get credit for anything. It's just the way the system and the media is set up. That shouldn't stop us from actually doing things when we have the chance.
yep, hopefully they fight to make the deal better but we can't expect them to make the case that impeachment isnt taking them away from other issues then get mad if they actually pass something.
Also, I think it's kinda cute that we think Trump could run on anything for more than ten minutes without stepping on his own dick. Pretending that he can run on a "policy win" works if one ignores literally his entire 2016 campaign and Presidency up to this point.
This is the man who literally had the biggest win with the Mueller report and then immediately fucked the whole thing up by doing more crimes.
This is the man who literally had the biggest win with the Mueller report and then immediately fucked the whole thing up by doing more crimes.
Thing is, nobody but Trump, his GOP slappies and his sheepish base are out there blaming Dems for "stonewalling." I don't hear that at all from any non-biased outlet.
All I hear is that Trump is too incompetent to get deals done (with USMCA, China, NK, etc.) becasue of his silly demands. So hand him a massive boost? Just looks terrible.
If a poll came out that showed like 65-70% of the American people blamed Dems I could understand them signing it. But that's not the case.
Dems could sell the higher standards as a win (assuming of course Mexico accepts the changes), but Dems are a bit weak on messaging so it's a gift to Cheeto.
Moderates want to be seen as dealmakers and are very sensitive to moderate and centralist voters. It is likely that moderates need some kind of important bill to show their constitutes that they are doing something. Republicans and many independents are going to credit this to Trump and Democrats probably won't care about deal itself anyway. It does benefit Trump and the Republicans more than Democrats nationally, but it does help a quite of few congressional Democrats.
The idea it will take away the talking point that the Democrats aren't doing anything, it doesn't matter because Republicans will still say that and the voters that are somewhat biased in favour the Republicans and Trump will mostly give Trump credit.
Trump isn't known for his message discipline. He'll go off for 15 min on some Fox News inspired tangent or some random thing at a rally. He should be talking about the Economy 24/7 but would rather publicly get involved in impeachment rather than take a page out of Clinton's handbook and show voters that you're focused on governing while the "war room" handles your impeachment. His constant drama/tweets created media vortex that drowned out his opponents message and media exposure to his benefit but that same vortex takes away exposure to his "accomplishments".
This is absolutely the incorrect way to go about this. It's not equally damaging -- if anything, you're just giving him more ammunition that "Trump can get things done even though he's being impeached". If you think that Democrats -- any of them -- will get credit for this, I truly want to know where you've been the past 3 years!
We already saw how this worked out with other pieces of legislation and yet you guys are Lucy with the football, yet again!
Trump's idea of a booming economy is the stock market going up. Unfortunately, that's also seemingly what the majority of Americans think as well because he continues to poll well on his handling of the economy.
So as long as the DOW keeps ticking up people will think he's doing a brilliant job.
I thought Pelosi just recently announced they were going to put something into USMCA that was actually pretty good?
My post explicitly says we will not get credit for this. We will not get credit for anything. A Democratic president will not get credit for anything passed under them. In fact, I'd go further and say if we did hold off on ratifying the USMCA, and it passes under a Democratic president, Trump will still get the credit.
It's just the way this country works. We elect Democratic presidents to set it and forget it, and we elect Republican presidents to keep us just interested enough in politics to save the country from them every 4-8 years.
You all realize that this wouldn't be the first new trade deal signed by Trump right? KORUS 2.0 went into effect of January of this year. No one talked about that particular victory (and as I understand it KORUS is pretty lopsided in the US' favor).
Nafta 2.0 isn't exactly sexy news. Especially with impeachment going on.
Nafta 2.0 isn't exactly sexy news. Especially with impeachment going on.
Then there is absolutely no reason to pass USCMA. It isn't "doing something good" when the end result explicitly helps Trump get re-elected by giving him the largest tangible policy win of his presidency.
I've had people tell me Trump is better for black people cause of that damn law so you are absolutely right. I also believe the damn moderate/blue dogs jumped at this because they see these things as something they can go back home with and brag about. Especially Dems from rural areas.
Exactly, because they have brain worms and think that they can go back to their districts and people will see them as "bipartisan", but that's not what's going to happen at all because we've seen this story so many times.
Trump having explicit policy wins he can point to is better for his re-election than not having explicit policy wins. I don't get why this is so hard.
Our number one goal as a caucus should be making sure that Trump does not get re-elected. Part of that is not giving Trump bipartisan policy wins he can point to to swing voters that otherwise might dislike his temperament but see him as a dealmaker who can be an effective president.
I feel like you guys are being weirdly flippant about this when it's like, a major point for his administration this far that he's talked about for the past year of so. He's going to bring this up at every single rally in the Midwest. Will it be the thing that gets him re-elected? Of course not. But it's going to be a net benefit. So what's the point of giving that to him?
Barr would put a link between these two? Man, he was desperate af.
I wonder how Trudeau having a minority government might affect its ratification.
Ultimately the best thing for centrists weenies would be for USMCA going down by not getting ratified by Canada and Mexico, but it probably will be passed by both so there's literally no point to ratifying it.
So things look rosy in both other countries? I truly haven't kept informed about its progress there.
It doesn't benefit anyone to delay USMCA by another year. It is frustrating though to see the Senate do nothing except rubber stamp judges, they won't even vote on many things, yet because of Trump's twitter megaphone the narrative is "do nothing Dems", even though they're the only ones passing any bills.
And if anyone still sees Trump as a dealmaker after these 3 years of basically no deals, they're already lost anyway. He's pulled the US out of more deals than he has made. Trump the dealbreaker would be more apt.
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