US PoliERA 2019 |OT2| #PresidentPelosi

Nov 20, 2017
2,327
https://www.citylab.com/life/2019/02/voter-data-political-party-affiliation-suburbs-poll/583183/

Why Suburban Swing Voters May Be Less Common Than You Think
A new poll finds that far from being more moderate than urban or rural voters, suburbanites are actually more partisan.

The popular image of America’s suburbs as a realm of swing voters, moderates, and independents is wrong, a new poll suggests. In fact, suburban voters are much less likely to be political independents than either urban or rural voters. Only 15 percent of the poll’s suburban respondents were independents, lower than the rate among rural or urban residents.

What makes the suburbs politically distinct in America may not be moderation, but rather a more even split between Democrats and Republicans than exists in left-leaning cities or right-leaning rural areas.


Residents of denser suburbs held beliefs more like those of city-dwellers than those of residents of low-density suburbs. (That echoes the Congressional Density Index, which found that districts composed primarily of low-density suburbs were more Republican than districts made up of higher-density suburbs.)

Researchers also looked at suburban residents based on whether they had ever lived in a city. Politically, Americans who moved from cities into the ’burbs voted much more like their former urban neighbors than their new suburban ones. Suburbanites who had never lived in a city were closely divided between Democrats and Republicans in the 2018 election, but ex-city dwellers voted overwhelmingly for Democrats.


But the poll’s results suggest that a lot of political differences between rural, urban, and suburban areas have to do with what kinds of people live there, rather than some characteristic of those types of neighborhoods.

For example, rural Americans are 24 percentage points more likely to approve of President Donald Trump than urban residents. But after controlling for the higher share of Republicans in rural areas, they’re only 4 points more likely to back Trump—not a statistically significant difference.
 
Oct 30, 2017
926
Yeah, i just find it hard to believe that Manafort was doing this all behind Trumps back.

Trump has been involved financially with the russians for years, We have trump talking about the release of hillary's emails before they were releassed, we have emails of Trump Jr enthusiastically trying to collude with russia, we have cohen in russia trying to work on what would have been by far the biggest deal Trump has ever made and trump publicly lying about it, he could have had picked anyone in the world to be his campaign manager and he picked Manafort and continues to defend manafort. We have the trump inauguration with russian fingerprints all over it, russian friendly administration policies and decisions, and of course Trumps absolute refusal to say anything negative about russia whatsoever even though he knows it hurts him politically and opens him up to scrutiny to people on both ends of the politcal spectrum.
If I were Trump and there was nothing tying me to Manafort's activities with Russians then I would be out there today and ever since he was charged saying "Thank you FBI and Special Council for exposing this spy who made his way into my campaign!! You guys are the best in the world, thank you so much!" Not saying "Paul Manafort is a very good guy and this is so unjust."
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,359
If I were Trump and there was nothing tying me to Manafort's activities with Russians then I would be out there today and ever since he was charged saying "Thank you FBI and Special Council for exposing this spy who made his way into my campaign!! You guys are the best in the world, thank you so much!" Not saying "Paul Manafort is a very good guy and this is so unjust."
Yup, he may as well be holding a gigantic sign saying "i'm guilty".
 
Jan 6, 2018
741
Possibly unanswerable question: Do anti-vaxxers think getting a vaccine can give you autism no matter what the age? Was pondering this hearing about unvaccinated teenagers who want to defy their parents.
There's a few answers, but it's probably not really a unified thing across all anti-vaxxers. A lot of it will come down to vaccines are bad and they'll come up with whatever excuses they can to claim they're bad no matter what.

One of the things anti-vaxxers like to push is that the vaccine schedule has too many vaccines, too rapidly. A teenager getting some vaccines wouldn't go against that. But of course, they have other arguments. There's chemicals. Thimerosal is used as a preservative for vials with multiple doses and contains mercury and it's due to anti-vaxxers that thimerosal free formulations were created. Studies found there isn't any difference in vaccines with or without thimerosal. Thimerosal is still used in vaccines today but every single vaccine is currently available in a thimerosal free formulation which may have to be requested for by the patient. Anti-vaxxers also don't like shedding, a term for viral replication in an infected person and spreading the virus to the environment. This is only relevant to live attenuated vaccines, but in the real world it's actually irrelevant because those attenuated viruses are harmless and do not cause disease except in rare situations, such as an immunocompromised patient.

There's probably more, but that's what I can remember off the top of my head.
 
Oct 30, 2017
926
Yup, he may as well be holding a gigantic sign saying "i'm guilty".
Exactly, and in particular when it came out that Manafort gave polling data to Russia if Trump was innocent or good at pretending to be innocent he should have been tweeting something like "Manafort violated my trust and betrayed our country. Unforgivable! Did he forget he signed an NDA!? I'm bringing legal action!"

The reason that people think that Trump is guilty of conspiring with Russia and being a Russian asset is because he acts EXACTLY LIKE someone who's guilty of conspiring with Russia and being a Russian asset. There's no other explanation for it.