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SolarPowered

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,211
I often think about this method, but I hardly post about it because I hope Republicans don't take it seriously until it's too late. I'm fully expecting our reddening supreme court to stick it's grubby mitts where they don't belong should we ever get the necessary 270 EVs, though. We gotta get some rust belt states and Virginia to get some real traction. Getting North Carolina sometime in the coming decade would be a huge catch, too.
 

Vector

Member
Feb 28, 2018
6,656
I often think about this method, but I hardly post about it because I hope Republicans don't take it seriously until it's too late. I'm fully expecting our reddening supreme court to stick it's grubby mitts where they don't belong should we ever get the necessary 270 EVs, though. We gotta get some rust belt states and Virginia to get some real traction. Getting North Carolina sometime in the coming decade would be a huge catch, too.
The movement already has 181 EV's. With VA, MN, and NV, it gets to 200. This is where it gets tricky - MI is the most promising of the Rust Belt states, and even that would be difficult to get. Goal should be to get all the Hillary states to sign it, then either try the Rust Belt states or AZ/TX depending on how things will look like at the moment.
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,943
Thank you. He's right and he wasn't directly attacking posters so :/. See far worse all the time and it doesn't even get a warning.
This is a pretty incredible ratio:


She is literally the worst. She should just drop out now if that's the type of trash she's peddling.
 

ValiantChaos

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
1,112
The movement already has 181 EV's. With VA, MN, and NV, it gets to 200. This is where it gets tricky - MI is the most promising of the Rust Belt states, and even that would be difficult to get. Goal should be to get all the Hillary states to sign it, then either try the Rust Belt states or AZ/TX depending on how things will look like at the moment.

Hypothetical path to 270 by 2024.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1zN5jcU0AANTVn.jpg:large
D1zN5jcU0AANTVn.jpg:large
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
Really a shame Nixon didn't primary Gillibrand. She could have pulled it off

Like seriously, she has no friends in high places, like almost zero endorsements from other NY politicians, had gotten fewer individual donations than Yang and Buttman and might not even get to the debates. I don't think there's any chance Cuomo would even be here if he was running. She was vulnerable and the political winds where shifting enough in NY for someone who wanted to go full progressive to pick up a federal legislation seat; the nitty gritty of NY politics were harder to talk about and less ideologically focused like Nixon wanted to be. Against Gillibrand she could have been fixating on Healtcare or whatever instead of train and subway schedules and stuff
 
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Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Yeah, we're getting there. No way to implement it before 2020, which is unfortunate, but oh well.

If we get all the states marked as possible by 2020, that puts us at 219. We can get the MN, PA and NC trifectas in 2020 which would get us to 264.

So then we'd either need the MI or AZ trifectas, neither of which is possible until 2022 which is the next time when the MI Senate and AZ governorship are up.

Also New Hampshire. If we get a D Governor there in 2020 that's an extra four, which would get us tantalizingly close (268), but we'd still need the two states I mentioned. It'd be best to get both as it would give us some breathing room in case any states decided to bail.
 

Naijaboy

The Fallen
Mar 13, 2018
15,285
Ugh. Conservative radio's already trying to frame Beto as the 'establishment guy' built to rile up Bernie fans. And with the way the Dem primary thread went down, it may well work in their favor.
 

BoboBrazil

Attempted to circumvent a ban with an alt
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
18,765
Do y'all think David Plouffe would be a good campaign manager for Beto? Do you guys have any other suggestions that might be good for his campaign?
 

ValiantChaos

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
1,112
Yeah, we're getting there. No way to implement it before 2020, which is unfortunate, but oh well.

If we get all the states marked as possible by 2020, that puts us at 219. We can get the MN, PA and NC trifectas in 2020 which would get us to 264.

So then we'd either need the MI or AZ trifectas, neither of which is possible until 2022 which is the next time when the MI Senate and AZ governorship are up.

Also New Hampshire. If we get a D Governor there in 2020 that's an extra four, which would get us tantalizingly close (268), but we'd still need the two states I mentioned. It'd be best to get both as it would give us some breathing room in case any states decided to bail.

and I don't get Graham and his EC statement about states becoming irrelevant if it goes away. Those flyover states have never been competitive except for anomaly circumstances like a Depression in the 30's, far Right Wing nominee in 64 and war time in the 10's.

For example ND, SD, KS and NE have voted R statewide for President in all but 3 elections going back to 1920 except for 1932, 1936, 1964. At least with popular vote you will actually be worth something even if your state votes overwhelmingly the other way.
 

Snake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
265
There's no reason to believe that Cynthia Nixon would have fared much better in a primary vs. Gillibrand rather than Cuomo, who is a much bigger target of criticism from very liberal Democrats than Gillibrand. Frankly, I have no idea why certain people are taking Gillibrand's lack of success in the presidential primaries and mutating it into hating her and thinking she shouldn't be in the Senate. Yes, I don't like that one opioid bill either, but the reaction seems out of step.

Also, I haven't seen evidence that AOC is popular statewide in NY, and the one poll we got recently shows the opposite. But if more rigorous polling shows that she's able to pull off a US Senate primary challenge, you primary Chuck Schumer or no one at all.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,419
There's no reason to believe that Cynthia Nixon would have fared much better in a primary vs. Gillibrand rather than Cuomo, who is a much bigger target of criticism from very liberal Democrats than Gillibrand. Frankly, I have no idea why certain people are taking Gillibrand's lack of success in the presidential primaries and mutating it into hating her and thinking she shouldn't be in the Senate. Yes, I don't like that one opioid bill either, but the reaction seems out of step.

Also, I haven't seen evidence that AOC is popular statewide in NY, and the one poll we got recently shows the opposite. But if more rigorous polling shows that she's able to pull off a US Senate primary challenge, you primary Chuck Schumer or no one at all.

Every poll I've ever seen with both of them shows that Schumer is more liked in NY than Gillibrand.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Do y'all think David Plouffe would be a good campaign manager for Beto? Do you guys have any other suggestions that might be good for his campaign?

Depends, IMO.

If O'Rourke is going to run on "I was born for this" and the "it" factor while Amy raises the family, then folks like Plouffe and David Axelrod - the last of the Clinton-era campaign managers - would be a fit.

If he is going to run more progressively and more expansively, support as many down-ballot candidates as possible and attempt to take back the Senate, then no. But he will need someone who's willing to acknowledge and not make the same mistakes of the Clinton campaign.

Either way, one of the candidates will have to mesh with the new DNC. This has been rarely discussed on TV but it will have to happen. There can't be another period of avoidance, stuck-in-the-mud, or attempted end-around like Obama tried. These just don't work.

I am also curious to see how Indivisible and other activist groups are going to do to build on their successes from 2017 and 2018, and how they are going to approach the Presidential contest while also trying to continue to get their desired candidates into local, state, and Congressional office. This is almost never covered on TV - the only time I see Invidisible protests and assemblies on TV (which happen rather often, all things considered) is on Maddow, once a week or so. These groups will be making contact with the Presidential candidates eventually.
 

SolarPowered

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,211
The movement already has 181 EV's. With VA, MN, and NV, it gets to 200. This is where it gets tricky - MI is the most promising of the Rust Belt states, and even that would be difficult to get. Goal should be to get all the Hillary states to sign it, then either try the Rust Belt states or AZ/TX depending on how things will look like at the moment.
Republicans will do anything and everything to keep Texas from going blue. The fights over senate seats, governorships, the voter compact and presidential elections will make the Trump era feel like a Sunday Picnic imo. I could see a light blue Arizona by 2024, though.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
and I don't get Graham and his EC statement about states becoming irrelevant if it goes away. Those flyover states have never been competitive except for anomaly circumstances like a Depression in the 30's, far Right Wing nominee in 64 and war time in the 10's.

For example ND, SD, KS and NE have voted R statewide for President in all but 3 elections going back to 1920 except for 1932, 1936, 1964. At least with popular vote you will actually be worth something even if your state votes overwhelmingly the other way.
That's because Graham is being insincere. He knows who loses in the scenario where the Electoral College is eliminated or circumvented, and it ain't the Demmycrats.
 

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
Conservatives in a 5-4 decision basically killed Zadvydas v. Davis today, which gave constitutional protections to immigrants from indefinite detention. Alito in writing for the majority basically went to "what the definition of is is" levels of absurdity in order to put Zadvydas into such a tiny box to make it not apply to the case they were deciding on. They sent the case back down to lower courts to decide if it violates due process with instructions to not use the case that already clearly decided that it does.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics...ght-not-consider-immigrants-to-be-people.html
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,943
Member that silly recall election around a week ago of the Fall River, MA, mayor that both recalled and re-elected him in the same election? Yeah, someone filed a lawsuit.

https://www.boston.com/news/local-n...hich-saw-fall-river-mayor-recalled-re-elected

A lawsuit is challenging a special election in which embattled Fall River Mayor Jasiel Correia was both recalled and re-elected.

The Boston Globe reports the suit filed Tuesday by 10 residents seeks to invalidate the unusual outcome of the March 12 election that kept Correia in office though a majority of voters wanted him removed.

The 27-year-old Democrat was indicted last year on tax and fraud charges related to an app he developed.

More than 60 percent voted to recall the mayor. But a separate part of the ballot asked voters who should replace him and Correia topped a list of five candidates with about 35 percent of the vote.

The lawsuit says once recalled, Correia shouldn't have been eligible for re-election and asks that second-place finisher Paul Coogan be declared mayor.
E M B A T T L E D
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,419
Is there some rule in AP Style that you have to use the word embattled in every story involving politics?

I hate the fact that I notice it constantly now.
 

dabig2

Member
Oct 29, 2017
5,116


Reminds me:


SCOOP: The House Judiciary Committee has received 8,195 pages of documents from these EIGHT individuals & entities as part of its Trump probe. The vast majority so far — nearly 6,000 pages — have come from Steve Bannon and Tom Barrack.

NRA, Bannon, Barrack - those 3 alone probably contain enough crimes for several independent US state, US Federal, and foreign governments to go to fucking town. And you bet Trump is a noted name in all of them.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,620
Do y'all think David Plouffe would be a good campaign manager for Beto? Do you guys have any other suggestions that might be good for his campaign?
This might be a little unfair because a lot of people on the left ultimately got 2016 wrong, but Plouffe's extreme confidence in Hillary winning based on data he was seeing (including iirc some private polling data) tells me that, despite what he accomplished with Obama's campaign in '08, he is behind the curve now.

I'm guessing Beto's going to get someone like a Kathryn Sorensen — someone who is probably not known in national campaign circles but can (and will have to) prove an ability to scale up extremely quickly.
 

plagiarize

It's not a loop. It's a spiral.
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
27,544
Cape Cod, MA
This might be a little unfair because a lot of people on the left ultimately got 2016 wrong, but Plouffe's extreme confidence in Hillary winning based on data he was seeing (including iirc some private polling data) tells me that, despite what he accomplished with Obama's campaign in '08, he is behind the curve now.

I'm guessing Beto's going to get someone like a Kathryn Sorensen — someone who is probably not known in national campaign circles but can (and will have to) prove an ability to scale up extremely quickly.
Genuine question. Was he still convinced post Weiner shit?
 

cameron

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
23,821
Jan 15, 2019
4,393
Fuck Booker. He's bashing Kamala for weed use more than his Republican colleagues for helping lock babies in cages.

It also comes across as kinda pointless tone policing. It's not like Kamala is laughing about having smoked weed while campaigning on giving weed smokers the electric chair. She's advocating for legalizing weed and expunging existing criminal records.
 

cameron

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
23,821




Mitt Romney @MittRomney

I can't understand why the President would, once again, disparage a man as exemplary as my friend John McCain: heroic, courageous, patriotic, honorable, self-effacing, self-sacrificing, empathetic, and driven by duty to family, country, and God.

6:49 PM - Mar 19, 2019


Rep. Eric Swalwell @RepSwalwell

He does it because he thinks you and your GOP senate colleagues will let him get away with it. Fight his hate with all you have. Nothing less than our democracy is on the line. No more half-in, half-concerned. We're counting on you, Senator.

6:57 PM - Mar 19, 2019
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
If anyone on Trump's team is assigned to watch Maddow, they must be a bit shook tonight. Things being redacted and requested to remain sealed, possibly to make a case against the president later on.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
On Break
Oct 25, 2017
32,770
After I got my wisdom teeth out, I needed pain meds for more than seven fucking days.
Were they impacted or something?

Anyway, there's nothing in that proposal that says your doctor couldn't prescribe you more after the 7 days, just that it can only be 7 days at a time. Part of the opioid issue is doctors giving the stuff out like candy and we do have to address it somehow.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,620
Really a shame Nixon didn't primary Gillibrand. She could have pulled it off

No way. Gillibrand outran Cuomo in 2018 by about half a million votes. And I don't know where you're getting that Gillibrand has no friends in NY from, but if she's at zero then Nixon is certainly way in the negatives in terms of in-state support.
Genuine question. Was he still convinced post Weiner shit?
I can't really remember, but I feel like he did one last "stop bed wetting" appearance on PSA just before the election.
 

TheHunter

Bold Bur3n Wrangler
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
25,774
You know, I may gripe about the corruption and machine politics of Illinois Dems but then I look at Florida and go you know...this isn't so bad.
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,943
Were they impacted or something?

Anyway, there's nothing in that proposal that says your doctor couldn't prescribe you more after the 7 days, just that it can only be 7 days at a time. Part of the opioid issue is doctors giving the stuff out like candy and we do have to address it somehow.
I think the major problem with her tweet was that it was worded fucking terribly and it seems like a lot of people took it as a max of 7 days per issue period. Completely fucking up the messaging like that is the exact opposite of what you want in a candidate.



The Florida Democratic Party is an embarrassment.

Come on Gillum.

Really hoping his announcement is something state-based.
 
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