US PoliEra 2019 |OT3| YOU WERE AT MY WEDDING, DENISE

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AnotherNils

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,188
Yall if the media reports are upsetting you that much then take a break for a day
This is why I did a media blackout for the weekend. The drip-feed of rumors and info was going to be a worthless emotional rollercoaster.

I got caught up last night with that Barr summary. It's shady, but, ironically like before things wrapped up, we'll just have to wait and see. It's not over, we've just moved on to a new phase.
 
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Kyra

The Eggplant Queen
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,211
New York City



Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT

Short-term politics: a Trump victory lap, Dem candidates can no longer do a wait-for-Mueller impeachment stall

Longer-term: doesn’t change much. Most Dem pros are happy to drive the midterm message & the GOP suburban problem owes to chaos not collusionhttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/us/politics/mueller-report-2020-candidates.html …


Electability all the more important to Dems now that it’s clear Trump is gonna have to be beaten at the ballot box. Can-you-win is the overriding litmus test (although it’s very much in the eye of the beholder!)


As Pelosi basically said out loud, most Dem leaders don’t want to let Trump play persecution card and would rather lash him on policy/promises broken. The end of Mueller makes that pivot easier, even if denies some in base the fan fic of Trump being frog-marched out of the WH.


Even in era of mobilization, Trump can’t win without some persuasion. And as long as he’s doing multi-day attacks on dead senators, he’s gonna find it hard to claim the Wisc/Mich suburbanites who couldn’t bear Hillary but bailed on the GOP last year.


one more note.

the bond between Trump and his base will only grow deeper, which ensures Rs in blue and purple districts likely to face the same fundamental challenge they struggled with in ‘18: how to get Trump base out while creating some distance for the broader electorate

10:29 AM - Mar 25, 2019

NYT: Mueller Report Puts New Pressure on 2020 Candidates to Emphasize Issues
My take as well but it still hurts right now all the same.
 

ThLunarian

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,461
No, you were wrong, and you tried a straw man so you could make your point about how successful the rest of the investigation is when the conversation was about how the media would come around when they learned more. You're jumping in without paying attention.

The poster I was quoting was saying the headlines will be worded just as strongly when the full report comes out. I drew an allusion to an exact (but opposite) parallel -- Hillary being exonerated after months/years of being positioned as guilty by media headlines. That mea culpa never came. And the next mea culpa will never come, either.
Who says there will have to be a mea culpa?

"TRUMP COLLUDED WITH RUSSIAN OLIGARCHS" and "TRUMP OBSTRUCTED JUSTICE," for example, are major headlines that would get clicks. It also would not require any newspapers to apologize for messing up.

You are catastrophizing here.
 

Royalan

Always make room for flowers.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
5,998
No, you were wrong, and you tried a straw man so you could make your point about how successful the rest of the investigation is when the conversation was about how the media would come around when they learned more. You're jumping in without paying attention.

The poster I was quoting was saying the headlines will be worded just as strongly when the full report comes out. I drew an allusion to an exact (but opposite) parallel -- Hillary being exonerated after months/years of being positioned as guilty by media headlines. That mea culpa never came. And the next mea culpa will never come, either.
The mea culpa never came with Hillary because there was never anything there other than Hillary devilishly plotting to split crème brulee with her staffers. I'm not saying you're wrong about our media being trash, but it was always clear that there was no great media turn because there wasn't really much to sensationalize in the fact that Hillary...turns out wasn't operating an international criminal enterprise through her private server, and was actually just a boring civil servant. We're in a situation now that is completely opposite of what you're alluding to. Because if/when that report is released, just based on what we do know (from the indictments, the witnesses interviewed, the subpoenas), having access to the mountains of evidence we know Mueller has gathered on Trump's many (many, many) shady business dealings and seeing people get dragged before Congress, is going to further inflame what is already the biggest political scandal in modern US history in a way that not even our faulty media will be able to ignore.

It just, isn't the same. At all.
 

Linkura

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,943
I would be more sympathetic to this view (which I tend to hold every 45 minutes or so, depending on anxiety levels) if those headlines posted on just the last page weren't so blatant.
Yup. And fuck, I was at the car dealership for a recall this morning and the fucking Today Show on the TV had a headline like "MUELLER REPORT SHOWS NO COLLUSION." This shit is all over the news laymen and women watch and read and you know those people aren't going to dig any deeper. The average person isn't going to read Barr's report and see the bullshit for their own eyes.
 

Sagroth

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,252
What do I do to feel better? I'm having a hard time focusing on anything (even work), and I just want to not feel as defeated and awful as I do from this administration being able to deflect all of this shit.
I understand where you're coming from. I put an unhealthy amount of hope into the Mueller investigation for sure. And then last week was already one of my worst in a while - had to leave practicum early in the week when I was suddenly bombarded by messages that my ex-husband had publily announced his intent to commit suicide on Facebook (he's safe), so when the news hit Friday it was extremely hard not to despair. I'm about to head out for practicum again today and very much don't want to. I guess my recommendation is do whatever you need to get through without falling on self-destuctive habits. Take a day for yourself if you need to, and stay away from news outlets. And don't be afraid to talk to a professional either. As for me, I spent the weekend binging shows with my fiancee (and cooking, which weirdly helps boost my confidence sometimes). This is heavy and scary shit, and combined with personal difficulties can easily be paralyzing or overwhelming, so don't be hard on yourself. Do what you need to survive.
 

BoboBrazil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,373
I still think Barr will shut down SDNY investigations too. It's up to him to sign off on any indictments by them as far as I know and he won't sign off on a Don Jr or Jared indictment.
 

PantherLotus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,767
I'm moving on from the nonsense about 'catastrophizing', as if there were a better time than this moment to note, again, media complicity. Have yourselves a party if that helps you all sleep at night.

###

Tons of unanswered questions, this one as good as any:

-- Why did Trump hide the Trump Tower meeting?
-- How did GRU and its troll farms know which polling data to exploit?
-- How was Trump so cozy with Wikileaks?
-- What was Flynn doing?
-- Why did Trump fire Comey? Why did he attack Mueller over and over and over again?

We know a lot of these answers. And we know they point to treason, collusion, and obstruction. Let's hope the report answers them.
 

Teiresias

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,491



Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT

Short-term politics: a Trump victory lap, Dem candidates can no longer do a wait-for-Mueller impeachment stall

Longer-term: doesn’t change much. Most Dem pros are happy to drive the midterm message & the GOP suburban problem owes to chaos not collusionhttps://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/us/politics/mueller-report-2020-candidates.html …


Electability all the more important to Dems now that it’s clear Trump is gonna have to be beaten at the ballot box. Can-you-win is the overriding litmus test (although it’s very much in the eye of the beholder!)


As Pelosi basically said out loud, most Dem leaders don’t want to let Trump play persecution card and would rather lash him on policy/promises broken. The end of Mueller makes that pivot easier, even if denies some in base the fan fic of Trump being frog-marched out of the WH.


Even in era of mobilization, Trump can’t win without some persuasion. And as long as he’s doing multi-day attacks on dead senators, he’s gonna find it hard to claim the Wisc/Mich suburbanites who couldn’t bear Hillary but bailed on the GOP last year.


one more note.

the bond between Trump and his base will only grow deeper, which ensures Rs in blue and purple districts likely to face the same fundamental challenge they struggled with in ‘18: how to get Trump base out while creating some distance for the broader electorate

10:29 AM - Mar 25, 2019

NYT: Mueller Report Puts New Pressure on 2020 Candidates to Emphasize Issues
This is all in line with how I've viewed this whole thing for a while. 2018 gains weren't made on the back of the Russian investigation but via home-grown concerns and the perception of chaos in the executive that had nothing to do with Mueller. I've thought the entire Russia investigation thing has been essentially inside-baseball for political junkies and pundits ever since the ACA repeal-and-replace attempt.

Anyone who lived in the fantasy land of the Mueller investigating resulting in any changes in the WH were delusional to begin with.
 

phisheep

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,383
Those headlines are objectively false, Barr said there was no proof of collusion between Trump and the russian government, not Trump and russia.
It's even more specific than that. "No proof of collusion" between the Trump campaign and the Russian Government, specifically with regard to interference with the general election (and not, for example, campaign contributions funneled through the NRA, or policy changes regarding Ukraine).
 

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,528
London
The most interesting thing about this thread re: Greenwald is that Michael Tracey is supposed to be a left-wing journalist? The fuck?


also, lol at Matt Taibbi being counted among that group too. A real who's who of assholes here.
Kind of amazing that an independent investigation concluded that Russian hackers leaked DNC emails to swing an election and it doesn’t even make headlines.

What a world.

Also, fuck Rich Lowry. Kavanaugh bothsidsing piece of shit.
 

Royalan

Always make room for flowers.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
5,998
I still think Barr will shut down SDNY investigations too. It's up to him to sign off on any indictments by them as far as I know and he won't sign off on a Don Jr or Jared indictment.
To me, the concern isn't so much Barr signing off on indictments, because I've never expected him. I've always found it impossible to imagine anyone in the Trump circle being indicted for any of this as long as Trump is in the White House.

The concern for me is as much as was discovered in these investigations making it to the public as unfiltered as possible.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,671
I really don’t get the mindset of this; dunking on us because of the Barr letter or even before, the midterms and the 2016 election. At that point I feel you just don’t want to win in general or you’ll never be satisfied.
I think it's a combination of a couple different mindsets. One is the more understandable prism of, Republicans are too far away to even be worth considering to persuade so let's work on the only other party that's more likely to be moved in our direction. I think this cuts way too much slack for Republicans ("don't bother criticizing them because they're so obviously terrible anyway" just helps Republicans by refusing to shine a light on their shit) but the basic fundamental gist I get.

But then there's also the laziness and relative comfort of preferring to keyboard snipe at those who are not 100 percent aligned with your views as opposed to actually doing any real work (see: the Mike Gravel twitter douches) + cults of personality around certain candidates + their own privilege of being socially, economically, personally insulated from the impact of Republican political power. Probably a couple other things too. But basically, mostly white dudes who, despite their alleged protestations of the excesses of capitalism, are secure enough in their own standing that as the world burns they'll sit mostly above the flames and just want to give themselves an excuse on why they don't need to help put out the fire or keep it from happening in the first place.
 
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Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,696
Minneapolis
I remember one person making an odd statement to the effect of “I can do what I want and protest votes are cool and if we lose it’s all your fault and I’m not accountable kthxbye”, basically gaslighting me. Prior to the midterm election this person was saying the real way to win in ‘18 is to not vote because that’ll learn ‘em, or something, and then got mad because we won statewide, and with progressive candidates on the ticket to boot!
You have to wonder for people like this when things have sufficiently changed enough that you can vote because you no longer need to "learn 'em."

Due to the pendulum nature of politics, neither party is ever on the outs for too long. Elections are going to happen with or without one person's participation, and what incentive do politicians have to court someone's vote when they're more interested in protesting "the system, maaan"?
 

Hopfrog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,635

They really are going to reinvestigate Clinton to make that a 2020 issue

Let them. Anybody who cares about Hillary fucking Clinton and her emails in 2020 is already voting for Trump. Everyone else will be wondering why they are campaigning on attacking someone who has been out of politics for four years.
 

BoboBrazil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,373
To me, the concern isn't so much Barr signing off on indictments, because I've never expected him. I've always found it impossible to imagine anyone in the Trump circle being indicted for any of this as long as Trump is in the White House.

The concern for me is as much as was discovered in these investigations making it to the public as unfiltered as possible.
I don't see Barr releasing the full report and evidence that came with it to anyone. Good luck with a subpoena.
 

ThLunarian

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,461
I'm moving on from the nonsense about 'catastrophizing', as if there were a better time than this moment to note, again, media complicity. Have yourselves a party if that helps you all sleep at night.

Good for you, but I think it's important to know what catastrophizing is, so let me dredge up an old post of mine, updated for current events, that I think may be helpful for some people now.

(Disclaimer: I am not a mental health professional in any capacity)

When Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016, the entire country's mental health suffered. People were mentally and emotionally broken, and many of us are still reeling from the damage even today.

This has been particularly evident in the past 24 hours, as Bill Barr's summary letter of Mueller's report seems to have been assumed accurate (for now) by the news media, who have been engaging in irresponsible reporting. This has led many Era members to panic, fearing that the full report will never come out, or that Trump and his cronies will get away with everything, and Trump will be emboldened and become a dictator, or he will win the 2020 election easily now, and any number of unreasonable conclusions.

This is now so prolific that I think it's a major problem in the forum, and I want to make an effort to combat it. So today I'm going to talk about catastrophic thinking, and what we can do about it.

Catastrophic thinking, also known as catastrophizing, is a cognitive distortion. You are welcome (and encouraged!) to click the links for more information, but in a nutshell, catastrophizing means to believe that something is far worse than it actually is. This can either be about a current event or about a future event.

To take it as a given that the report will never come out, and even if it does then it's a dud, and because of this Trump will get away with everything, and he will use that to bolster his popularity and sail to a 2020 win, and democracy will be destroyed, is an example of catastrophic thinking.

Catastrophizing is not good for you. It leads to feelings of anxiety; it limits your opportunities in your career and relationships; and it undermines your ability to feel good about yourself or about your life.

This is different from the practice of managing your expectations. Tempering your expectations can be a prudent defense mechanism to blunt the impact of bad news. Automatically assuming the worst outcome, on the other hand, is damaging to yourself and potentially to those around you.

We can't blame people for falling victim to catastrophic thinking. Everyone does it sometimes, and it is an easy habit to fall into. But we also shouldn't let it flow freely.

So what can we do about it?

Here are some tips from Medical News Today.

  1. Acknowledging that unpleasant things happen: Life is full of challenges as well as good and bad days. Just because one day is bad does not mean all days will be bad.
  2. Recognizing when thoughts are irrational: Catastrophizing often follows a distinct pattern. A person will start with a thought, such as "I am hurting today." They will then expand on the thought with worry and anxiety, such as, "The pain is only going to get worse," or "This hurting means I'll never get better." When a person learns to recognize these thoughts, they are better equipped to handle them.
  3. Saying "stop!": To cease the repetitive, catastrophic thoughts, a person may have to say out loud or in their head "stop!" or "no more!" These words can keep the stream of thoughts from continuing and help a person change the course of their thinking.
  4. Thinking about another outcome: Instead of thinking about a negative outcome, consider a positive one or even a less-negative option.
  5. Offering positive affirmations: When it comes to catastrophic thinking, a person has to believe in themselves and that they can overcome their tendency to fear the worst. They may wish to repeat a positive affirmation to themselves on a daily basis.
  6. Practicing excellent self-care: Catastrophic thoughts are more likely to take over when a person is tired and stressed. Getting enough rest and engaging in stress-relieving techniques, such as exercise, meditation, and journaling, can all help a person feel better.
There is a lot more information available on this topic, but I think this is a good stopping point for this forum post. If you want to learn more, I encourage you to google "catastrophic thinking" and "cognitive distortions." Our brains and emotions are complicated, and it can be helpful to get some insight on them from outside sources.

Also, if you're feeling really bad, you should know that there is a mental health community right here on Era that offers fantastic support to those who need it.

Mental Health Era |OT| You are not alone


Together, we will get through the unveiling of the Mueller report, no matter what happens.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,671
I was thinking this too.

I don't even understand how Trump's conduct on a number of fronts doesn't already qualify as obstruction of justice, but even assuming there really just wasn't enough to meet Mueller's threshold, he had to know that punting on the decision of whether to prosecute was effectively choosing not to prosecute.
 

Allard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,234
I don't see Barr releasing the full report and evidence that came with it to anyone. Good luck with a subpoena.
Schift said there is an actual law on the books that any investigative affairs that deal with national security or foreign affairs must be released to them unredacted for the sake of being able to do there duties as overseers. So at least that part I could see getting in the hands of congress.
 

PantherLotus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,767
Having followed this closely since it started (assuming 'it' didn't actually start back in the 90s like some of the deeper conspiracy theories), it's hard to watch all the evidence of so many world-altering crimes be flushed away with the 'Mueller finds no collusion' which is just a flat out lie. We know for a fact those are not the facts.

We are being gaslighted in real time, right now, and being made to feel like this guy:


It's hard not to feel like that right now. When we saw all this unfold right in front of us, on national television. We saw him collude from the podium, and we see the fruits of that collusion with that treasonous stand in Helsinki. We saw him obstruct justice, and have, for years. And he confessed to it on national television. So I see your 'this guy is hysterical' stuff but won't be gaslighted. Instead,

 

id.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
148
These headlines really fucking suck. How can so many outlets get it so wrong? Like Nunes and his stupid fucking memo, this is just Barr's opinion on the report. They really need to stop saying "Mueller says _____" and push for more transparency. If you didn't know any better, just from reading the headlines you'd think Mueller himself basically just said "NO COLUSION, VERY LEGAL"

How long do you guys think it will actually take Congress to subpoena the report? My guess is they'll politely ask for it for a little while before going the subpoena route. Which will just give Barr/Rosenstein more time to cherry pick and procure the little tidbits they say they will start releasing.
 

PantherLotus

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,767
These headlines really fucking suck. How can so many outlets get it so wrong? Like Nunes and his stupid fucking memo, this is just Barr's opinion on the report. They really need to stop saying "Mueller says _____" and push for more transparency. If you didn't know any better, just from reading the headlines you'd think Mueller himself basically just said "NO COLUSION, VERY LEGAL"

How long do you guys think it will actually take Congress to subpoena the report? My guess is they'll politely ask for it for a little while before going the subpoena route. Which will just give Barr/Rosenstein more time to cherry pick and procure the little tidbits they say they will start releasing.
How long did it take for the House to subpoena Trump's taxes? That's a good milestone to judge by. Let me go look it up because it didn't seem that long of a wait.
 

id.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
148
Is there any reason at all to wait? They have already asked and even voted on seeing the full report, and Barr doesn't want to budge. Why wait one minute longer?
 

Ignatz Mouse

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,483
I think that the House ought to keep agitating for details, and I do hope more come out like a slow trickle to keep Trump's negatives high. In the meantime:



If you're expounding today about which news stories matter for 2020: yield curve > Mueller report
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,671
I laughed:

John Bessler, Amy Klobuchar's husband; Mann, Warren's husband; and Erica Lira Castro, Julián Castro's wife briefly appeared onstage at campaign rollout events, typically offering the candidates a hug and kiss on the cheek and waving to the crowd at the side of their spouses. Bessler even carried Klobuchar’s binder of notes to the lectern before taking his leave.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/23/2020-spouses-presidential-candidates-1233092
 

loquaciousJenny

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
2,457
Good for you, but I think it's important to know what catastrophizing is, so let me dredge up an old post of mine, updated for current events, that I think may be helpful for some people now.

(Disclaimer: I am not a mental health professional in any capacity)

When Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016, the entire country's mental health suffered. People were mentally and emotionally broken, and many of us are still reeling from the damage even today.

This has been particularly evident in the past 24 hours, as Bill Barr's summary letter of Mueller's report seems to have been assumed accurate (for now) by the news media, who have been engaging in irresponsible reporting. This has led many Era members to panic, fearing that the full report will never come out, or that Trump and his cronies will get away with everything, and Trump will be emboldened and become a dictator, or he will win the 2020 election easily now, and any number of unreasonable conclusions.

This is now so prolific that I think it's a major problem in the forum, and I want to make an effort to combat it. So today I'm going to talk about catastrophic thinking, and what we can do about it.

Catastrophic thinking, also known as catastrophizing, is a cognitive distortion. You are welcome (and encouraged!) to click the links for more information, but in a nutshell, catastrophizing means to believe that something is far worse than it actually is. This can either be about a current event or about a future event.

To take it as a given that the report will never come out, and even if it does then it's a dud, and because of this Trump will get away with everything, and he will use that to bolster his popularity and sail to a 2020 win, and democracy will be destroyed, is an example of catastrophic thinking.

Catastrophizing is not good for you. It leads to feelings of anxiety; it limits your opportunities in your career and relationships; and it undermines your ability to feel good about yourself or about your life.

This is different from the practice of managing your expectations. Tempering your expectations can be a prudent defense mechanism to blunt the impact of bad news. Automatically assuming the worst outcome, on the other hand, is damaging to yourself and potentially to those around you.

We can't blame people for falling victim to catastrophic thinking. Everyone does it sometimes, and it is an easy habit to fall into. But we also shouldn't let it flow freely.

So what can we do about it?

Here are some tips from Medical News Today.



There is a lot more information available on this topic, but I think this is a good stopping point for this forum post. If you want to learn more, I encourage you to google "catastrophic thinking" and "cognitive distortions." Our brains and emotions are complicated, and it can be helpful to get some insight on them from outside sources.

Also, if you're feeling really bad, you should know that there is a mental health community right here on Era that offers fantastic support to those who need it.

Mental Health Era |OT| You are not alone


Together, we will get through the unveiling of the Mueller report, no matter what happens.
Thank you for this
 

id.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
148
What are the odds the White House has seen the report?

I guess low since it hasn't leaked yet lol
 

enempi

Member
Mar 9, 2018
778
In retrospect all the hero worship of Mueller, Rosenstein, etc by all was pretty embarrassing. Two years of literally every single Republican debasing themselves for Trump and acting like a complete partisan hack, but we figured these were the good guys who were gonna bring down the hammer. It feels like the report was always going to be something along the lines of "well a lot of shady shit sure went down, but who can really say what the intention was deep down in his true heart?" The standards that Trump gets judged by are so absurdly low that it's pretty much impossible for him to commit a crime.

If anything this has definitely made me reevaluate how I consume cable news. It makes me think of how much time and energy I and others spent following Mueller and hyping themselves up for some kind of big reveal or turning point. We just had to wait for the cops to show up and arrest the bad guys. The only thing that anyone should be focusing on now is how to win in 2020 like how we did in 2018, because there are no allies coming to do the work for us.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,578
South Carolina
If you're Team Trump this morning, you're moving to unwind the remaining DoJ investigations; looking at pardons for Manafort, Gates, Stone and Flynn; figuring out how to claim executive privilege of methods/souces over the entire Mueller Report; and destroying every incriminating document you might have on this whole mess, quietly and securely.
This is a concern. If hes ballsy enough to strangle the review for getting out ahead of the full thing, he could strangle the many inv underway and handed off.

That seems to be the plan.
They cant but he may try.
 

ThLunarian

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,461
So the DOJ is just going to sit on the report and do absolutely nothing with it?
Why would you think this?

I mean, it's possible they might try it. But it would be very stupid of them to do. There is enormous pressure on the DOJ from multiple angles to release the report in full. Many powerful people are calling for its release.

Trump himself said it should be released.

The House of Representatives voted 420-0 to release it in full.

It's getting out. Probably sooner than later.
 

Greg NYC3

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,649
Miami
You can say Trump is an idiot, but the man knows how to put people in place or pay people to protect him against criminal charges. He's been getting away with crimes his whole life.
It's not that he's been getting away with crimes his entire life, it's that he was born into a position that made him immune from prosecution of most crimes. This entire system of government is founded on propping up men like Trump and shielding them from failure. It's the same reason that Kavanaugh not only got confirmed but became a rallying cry for conservatives in the midterms. Trump and most of what's happening here and around the world is a symptom of a larger problem. Those who have created these systems of privilege feel that they're in danger of collapsing and this far right wing surge is the response.
 
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