So this was a 5-4 conservative/liberal split, the previous ruling in 1979 was 6-3 and this seems to be a flat overrule rather than some type of reasoned change of opinion.
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US PoliERA 2019 |OT4| Folded like a DOG
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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So this was a 5-4 conservative/liberal split, the previous ruling in 1979 was 6-3 and this seems to be a flat overrule rather than some type of reasoned change of opinion.
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Sweeping the states where he's underwater in approval would give us a 52-48 majority (you missed Iowa), even assuming Jones goes down.
Guessing it's more likely we lose Georgia though, but I think Texas is somewhat underrated, Cornyn is giving me some serious Bill Nelson vibes.
Ernst and Collins are going to require some dynamite recruits. Even though Iowa is to Maine's right I think Ernst is more beatable than Collins, so it evens out.
If I had to assign race ratings right now:
Lean D - Colorado
Tossup - Arizona, North Carolina
Lean R - Alabama, Georgia*, Iowa, Maine
Likely R - Texas
*yes I know what I just said, Texas is just a hunch I'm not ready to fully commit to yet.
This is what a lot of people don't realize. The media still enjoys reporting on big-sounding point losses, but the % drops are much smaller than they used to be since the value has increased so much. 700pts isn't the catastrophe it used to be, but they still like BREAKING NEWS WATCH THIS STORY NOW!!!
18 months? Was he suggesting a decision would be handed down in December 2019?
But yes, Roe v Wade is toast.
Who the fuck ever expected Kavanaugh to defend Roe? It'll be Roberts we need if it comes down to it.
Also Roe v Wade won't be struck down, the SCOTUS will just punt the decision and allow red states to effectively ban it by making absurd legal requirements that make it essentially impossible to get an abortion without it being illegal. Women of means can of course travel to a blue state to get one.
Also Roe v Wade won't be struck down, the SCOTUS will just punt the decision and allow red states to effectively ban it by making absurd legal requirements that make it essentially impossible to get an abortion without it being illegal. Women of means can of course travel to a blue state to get one.
The anti abortion lobby is openly admitting it's shooting to use trash cases to get appeals to an SC that has been hand picked to overturn this precedent.
I wonder how worried the GOP strategists are about what happens when its primary evangelical issue is effectively gone? What really concerns me is that the GOP will have to turn some of its hydra heads towards stirring up new issues. And they're going to be more predatory and horrifying than Roe Vs Wade.
Voting rights act and racial animus are the two most potent arrows left in that quiver.
I wonder how worried the GOP strategists are about what happens when its primary evangelical issue is effectively gone? What really concerns me is that the GOP will have to turn some of its hydra heads towards stirring up new issues. And they're going to be more predatory and horrifying than Roe Vs Wade.
Voting rights act and racial animus are the two most potent arrows left in that quiver.
I'm not hard-pressed to find this at all. The financial industry, after every financial crisis. Real-estate, on yearly tax returns. Now let's address the rest of this post about farmers:
There are farmers in every state. For people who run their own farms, this "sweat of the brow" is not a myth.
They don't get subsidized health care, life insurance, AD&D, etc. They've had to pay for it all themselves.
Yes they get yearly crop insurance, but the government is involved in regulating food production for many reasons, not just to provide financial gifts to farmers. They submit their farms and inventories to inspection multiple times a year.
They don't hate minorities because they employ them. And since they are in the business of producing food, they actually want people to have food, but under robust trade and distribution agreements - even if they themselves don't fully understand the ramifications of the politics behind them. And even though it's clear some of them don't, I remember a very politically-diverse crowd of people in 2016 were happy to shout "NO TPP" without understanding the trade implications either.
And for those who run farmers markets, they see well-to-do people try to steal produce far more than people who are not well-off. But you ask for a sample of something you will get it, no matter who you are.
The same Roberts who gutted the voting rights act because "racism ended"? Roe v Wade is fucked.
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The same Roberts also withheld an review into Kavanaugh's behavior as a judge until he got confirmed as a justice and then sent a worthless request to the 10th circuit.
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The same Roberts also withheld an review into Kavanaugh's behavior as a judge until he got confirmed as a justice and then sent a worthless request to the 10th circuit.
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My thought is what actually happens to the woman vote if/when Roe v Wade is overturned?
70:30 Dem:Rep? 80:20?
Agricultural dependence on illegal migrant labor in no way excludes "hate" and indeed the ability to pay less than minimum wage for back breaking labor with no benefits and horrible conditions hardly strikes me as a kindness. It's often hypocritical exploitation.
It's true that most farms are family owned but like "small business" the myth of Paw Olsen and a bucolic Little House on the Prairie farmstead is a cartoon that can include gigantic private companies, corporations, and distributed networks/cooperatives as well as tiny agribusiness startups.
I agree that they don't "hate" migrant workers in the consumption sense but they sure aren't loving them in the human sense of the word.
A Texas soybean farmer voting for Trump is about the most self sabotaging vote I can think of. And every now and then we'll get a profile of one with the stinger being that even though his crop is useless this year, he's gonna vote Trump again in 2020.
I would imagine women of means are not the majority of women that would be seeking an abortion (greater access to birth control) on the whole, but I admit I don't know the demographics of those getting abortions. It is complete shit all around.
I agree that they will probably let states decide for themselves and the south and some midwest states will be outlawing it.
Yeah, our town encourages us not to use disposals. Problem is people dump everything in, including lots of grease and such and the sewer lines can't handle it.
If a future comes to pass where red states are able to end abortion I hope that businesses will boycott those states completely.
I remember reading in a previous health class that it disportionately affects women of lower income, so it's a factor in that regard either way.
Biden is going to coast to victory with the majority of black Americans behind him. Pete at 0% lol
Harris is probably the only one with a shot at breaking out.
Basically the question is how much of Roe v Wade is killed, and what you describe is the most likely. It's not out of the question that they'd allow the whole alabama law, but likely it'll be cut back a bit.
There's probably a few of them that'd give fetuses 14th amendment rights and make it illegal everywhere if the court continues to get more radically conservative.
For anyone who doesn't believe we're in a constitutional crisis:
Could be worse! Klobuchar is out here still trying to convince Black America that she exists.
Could be worse! Klobuchar is out here still trying to convince Black America that she exists.
If Roe v Wade is gonna die then the best thimg that could happen is that it dies a few months before the 2020 election. it would make Collins easier to take down
It's kind of funny when people tell me my family's experience (extended across types of farms, and through generations) is wrong.
It's actually an economic inability to pay more. And if the government weans away support for certain types of farming (like dairy) it can be even worse where they can employ no one.
There's other things that happen off the books - employees need transportation to the farms which are out of the way of major travel routes, and the farmers' markets (if they have enough skills to run a stand) which are several dozens of miles away - they use vehicles owned by the farm, or their own - they're not just "picked up at the corner" or whatever stereotype you might think of. When possible, other financial assistance is provided to these folks without credit from the government or anyone else in society - because the reality is that in order for these folks to work, they and their families need to live and breathe.
Of course it's not enough, and unfortunately people assume farmers are "just fine" with this deal - a deal that has seen many of themselves working hard physical labor from childhood until death with little pay or benefits, in the face of decades of bipartisan lack of national political will on both immigration and agriculture employment and sustainability. But when Trump changes that, and does a bunch of "stuff" in a worse direction, it's the farmers that are bad. Swell.
Problem is, she's going to need to take direct shots at Biden's legitimacy as an advocate for the rights and freedoms of black Americans in order to bleed his support over to her... and will she be willing to do that if she feels she could be jeopardizing a potential VP nom that many believe she is firmly in line for to do it?
I didn't say "all farmers Are bad" and in fact I was pointing to a series of specific examples.
I'm not suggesting the issues aren't institutional. But there's no lipstick to put on paying illegal immigrants lower than minimum wages and then voting for a party that wants to cage those very people and their children - ship them all back to "Mexico" and start pointless agricultural trade wars with rivals and partners while handing taxpayer subsidies directly back to undo the unnecessary damage and give billionaires tax breaks and Learjet exemptions.
If that describes you or your family then you should be offended and if it should stick. If it doesn't describe you or your family then I'm not sure which aspect you're refuting or why.
The things I am pointing out may not be universal but they are real. And they're institutional. But they're not mandatory.
If ethical farmers want to pay migrant laborers more and resolve their immigration situations in productive ways and avoid tarrif and export fights then they should address it at the ballot box as well as at their business. And many do. But those aren't who I'm talking about.
Jesus I hope that poll is just a fluke or some shit. 0% would mean even Trump has more black people supporting him, that can't be right.
I mean... what?
That's just for the primary. If Buttigieg actually made it to the general he'd win blacks 90-10 like any other Democrat would.
Google News has been feeding me this story (not logged in, no history) all day. Republicans and their allies making up quotes to disparage a Muslim woman Democrat is now standard fare.
Thankfully Pelosi hasn't fallen for it this time, at least not yet, nor have the usual suspects on this board (maybe if there was a separate thread in Etc.).
Given his history, PoCs are right to have zero trust in Pete.
Yeah I'm not too concerned if he wins the nom, he'll get Obama to campaign with him and stuff. It's just weird to see so little support from black voters. I thought Axelrod was jumping the gun being concerned with it. But it's been like this for a while, still enough time to change it tho.
Women and men support abortion rights by about the same amount, 60%ish.
It's good that she's spreading awareness on this issue because it seems like a lot of people tend to defend their favorite politicians' ties to corporate lobbyists by basically saying "no evidence of collusion". That's not how it works.
Juan de León Gutierrez (named in the article above) is the third child to die in a detention center since December last year, alone. These poor children. No real telling how many more have suffered without the reporting going on in other years. It's so sad and depressing. This is a very personal issue to me and I've donated to Raices and the like to do what I can to help others. But the weight of this decrepit administration can be really heavy sometimes.
I'll never let go of the fucking fury at that rando on Facebook I got into it with who claimed that Trump would never be able to nominate a justice more conservative than Garland because of (his emphasis) GRID. LOCK. But that even if he was able to cement a conservative majority, it wouldn't matter because "cases usually take four years to move through the courts anyway," as if this means anything thanks to LIFETIME APPOINTMENTS (plus it's not even true anyway, the ACA passed in 2010 and had a SCOTUS ruling on it just two years later).
People were clinging onto every possible opportunity to be a dumbass. I bet he didn't even vote last year.
On mobile so can't link, but a new poll has McSally leading Kelly only 45-44... and 38% of people still haven't heard of him. LOL McSalty. Horrible numbers for an incumbent.
Same slightly R-leaning pollster that had Sinema behind before she won, so even better for us.
Same slightly R-leaning pollster that had Sinema behind before she won, so even better for us.
Goes to show how much of an echo-chamber ResetEra can be.
Biden is gonna coast all the way on Obama Nostalgia.
Anecdotal but many Republican gone Independents in Arizona are pissed McDumbass got the position.
I like your Avatar by the way. Great transition from the past selections.
Horrible stuff. It's only getting worse from here too. I think about this pretty much non-stop every day. Dems in the House don't seem too concerned about opening investigations into it either. They let Nielsen walk away after lying repeatedly under oath. The new guy is even worse.
And fuckers out here still playing that game. Humans were a mistake.
I need variety now because next year will be awkward Collins pictures.
Mark Kelly is an all-star candidate. That seat is going to flip. So worst case scenario for the Senate is losing Alabama and only gaining Colorado and Arizona.
We need to see who will run in the general election in Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, and Texas before we make a determination of what will likely happen in these states. In close elections like the above will certaintly be, candidate quality is the difference between winning and losing.
We need to see who will run in the general election in Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia, and Texas before we make a determination of what will likely happen in these states. In close elections like the above will certaintly be, candidate quality is the difference between winning and losing.
Science literacy levels in America are already depressingly low. Unabashedly rejecting science and perpetuating it as a partisan issue is a very dangerous thing to do and should be illegal for any government official to do.
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Incredibly tragic. I really wish there was more that we could do.
I can't wait for a picture of her snapped the moment Roe v Wade is overturned.
Ruben Galego was awesome to not go against Kelly. I honestly would vote for Galego over Kelly but he is smart to not split the party. Further proof that Arizona is turning purple and the Dems are willing not to fight over messing up elections.
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