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US PoliERA 2019 |OT4| Folded like a DOG

Oct 26, 2017
4,215
"Biden has the best chance of beating Trump, 61 percent of Pennsylvania registered Democrats say, followed by Sanders with 6 percent." - https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620

61 to 6!!! big oof
It's a poll of which one candidate the respondents think has the best chance, not of whom they think can beat Trump. Comparing percentages here isn't particularly meaningful.

I'd guess the majority (at least the plurality) of Era would also agree that Biden has the best chance of beating Trump.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,018
oof, +11 in PA. I can't see how Biden would lose a GE with numbers like these - pending any big scandals.

Warren's numbers are encouraging in view of her earlier rather concerning H2H numbers. Hoping for a breakout debate performance.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,030
oof, +11 in PA. I can't see how Biden would lose a GE with numbers like these - pending any big scandals.

Warren's numbers are encouraging in view of her earlier rather concerning H2H numbers. Hoping for a breakout debate performance.
I think Warren is the delta candidate, with the folksy charm of Biden, and better and more progressive policies than Bernie. Obvious compromise candidate for both camps imo.
 
I'll never understand the self-defeating stance of not voting if your preferred candidate isn't on the ballot. It's akin to being unemployed and refusing to take a job that's offered to you because it isn't what you want. While having the full knowledge that it be two years until you get another job offer.

Why not just take the job, get some money and experience, and keep looking for the job you want? Or in other words voting for the person you don't love and then organizing to get the person you like elected next time.

This ideological intransigence is stubbornness to the point of stupidity. It's the Jon Snow/Ned Stark syndrome.
 
Oct 25, 2017
7,418
It’s not really that shocking to me, we’re one of the worst states in regards to transparency and accountability with dark money groups and lobbyists. Last I checked we were in dead last in terms of FOIA too, but that may change this term.

I can go back to 2012 when then state house speaker Jase Bolger tried to create a scheme where a legislator would switch parties from Dem to GOP after the primary so they could gain a seat, until that was uncovered by the media here. Or then Senate Majority leader Randy Richardville stating he’d “never put right to work on the ballot”, saying he’s too pro-union for that, and then he put it on the floor for a vote in lame duck because he was afraid of being primaried out.

Corruption in our state legislature is kind of a given, and the upwards mobility most state reps and senators get thanks to our term limits make it a pathway for one to sit in a safe district, do all the things lobbyists want and then when you term out, boom, this sweet lobbying job is yours. Fortunately with fairer district maps on the way in the next year(court-ordered) and year following(voters not politicians/Prop 2) will help with this, but term limits and our legislature’s inability to act on putting daylight into dark money contributions will continue to put this issue in the forefront.

I’m glad he was caught too, and his narrow victory last year makes this seat a good candidate for a pickup if he resigns, it’d be great if we can narrow the slim GOP majority in the house further before next year.

For all the times throughout my life where this state has let me down politically, last year we did a lot of good. I wouldn’t discount that at all, it was a solid clapback and I think it’ll continue next year.
The wolves out here are already spending every minute going after Gretchen Whitmer. She needs to stand firm to these pricks
 
Oct 31, 2017
735
oof, +11 in PA. I can't see how Biden would lose a GE with numbers like these - pending any big scandals.

Warren's numbers are encouraging in view of her earlier rather concerning H2H numbers. Hoping for a breakout debate performance.
Again, I think people are underestimating that at the end of the day, the 2020 general could be as 'boring', numbers wise as the 2018 midterms.

Lots of heat about how the Democrats are Doomed because of various 48 hour culture war stories, but at the end of the day, Biden continually leads Trump by 5-10 points, and then wins.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,945
He did it for the same reason he streamed his dental appointment, and that was to interview an immigrant about starting a local business and contributing to the community. Granted, it's still very TMI for me. For anyone who didn't watch, he got something close to a faux hawk.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
2,142
It's the worst. Why am I getting more hair as I get older 😭

More on topic but the takes I'm getting from some of my leftist friends on Warren's green military are all sorts of fucked. They start with the argument that any and all support of the military is somehow tacit approval of American imperialism. Followed by the guarantee that we'll be at war with Venezuela and Iran before the new year. It's exhausting. If anything I think pushing the military to go greener is a good back door for lowering their overall budget. There's also the constant "shouldn't we be able to hold our politicians to a higher standard?!" Routine. Sure but when's the last time I heard you complain about McConnell or trump? It's been a minute because you're too busy equating Warren with American "exceptionalism"
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,146
Again, I think people are underestimating that at the end of the day, the 2020 general could be as 'boring', numbers wise as the 2018 midterms.

Lots of heat about how the Democrats are Doomed because of various 48 hour culture war stories, but at the end of the day, Biden continually leads Trump by 5-10 points, and then wins.
Wasn't Hillary also leading by 5 - 10?
 
Wasn't Hillary also leading by 5 - 10?
I feel like Biden's polling vs Trump is more reliable because it's two knowns. Hillary vs Trump was a known vs Trump who was running with policies all over the place.

Biden vs Trump everyone already knows what they're getting with both of them. Ones a popular, recent, vice president and the other is the incumbent.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,499
I feel like Biden's polling vs Trump is more reliable because it's two knowns. Hillary vs Trump was a known vs Trump who was running with policies all over the place.

Biden vs Trump everyone already knows what they're getting with both of them. Ones a popular, recent, vice president and the other is the incumbent.
Yeah, it's probably the closest we'll get to a straight Obama vs. Trump match-up.

Part of me is tempted to just go with Biden for the easy win, but I'm still going with Warren.
 
Oct 31, 2017
735
Can Michelle Obama just run and end this Biden madness
The takes certain people would have for Michelle running would be...not great.

(Not that I actually think Michelle should run, even though she should win, since she's no political depth on issues beyond that of a very smart person who's the spouse of the President. Now, if she wants to run for Senate once Durbin retires...)

Joe has a penis.
He also doesn't have a 25 year smearjob that's been so consistent and total that supposed left-wing people use right-wing arguments against him word for word.

There is sexism, but unfortunately, Hillary also has a bonus of being burdened by being That Bitch to the Left and the Right.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,966
I'll never understand the self-defeating stance of not voting if your preferred candidate isn't on the ballot. It's akin to being unemployed and refusing to take a job that's offered to you because it isn't what you want. While having the full knowledge that it be two years until you get another job offer.

Why not just take the job, get some money and experience, and keep looking for the job you want? Or in other words voting for the person you don't love and then organizing to get the person you like elected next time.

This ideological intransigence is stubbornness to the point of stupidity. It's the Jon Snow/Ned Stark syndrome.
Yup, it’s essentially the same mentality a spoiled child has.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,399
It's the worst. Why am I getting more hair as I get older 😭

More on topic but the takes I'm getting from some of my leftist friends on Warren's green military are all sorts of fucked. They start with the argument that any and all support of the military is somehow tacit approval of American imperialism. Followed by the guarantee that we'll be at war with Venezuela and Iran before the new year. It's exhausting. If anything I think pushing the military to go greener is a good back door for lowering their overall budget. There's also the constant "shouldn't we be able to hold our politicians to a higher standard?!" Routine. Sure but when's the last time I heard you complain about McConnell or trump? It's been a minute because you're too busy equating Warren with American "exceptionalism"
Because these arm-chair Socialist dorks have so internalized being the 'lovable losers' that they can't get the idea in their heads that winning something takes more effort than posting Jacobin articles and putting in extra time at the food co-op. They have no expectations of actually having power, instead there is a child-like need to be the underdog, because the expectations for the underdog are so low.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,499
The green military idea is actually pretty brilliant, because it uses military bloat to help with the extremely large investment it'll require to combat climate change, while also countering the "Democrats don't care about the military" narrative. We don't have to cut their budget by a dime*, it comes off more as shuffling priorities

*I mean we should anyway but you know

But I am not surprised at all that there are certain leftists who can't see the forest for a single branch. That's right, not even the trees.
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,052
Overturning Roe v Wade is a negative for Republicans electorally, never thought they'd kill off that boogeyman. Lol at the hyperpartisan shit show Republicans have turned our government into. I'm glad SCOTUS being a wholly partisan body is just out there in the open now.

This administration just looks more and more corrupt day after day in regards to obstructing every single attempt at oversight.
I don't understand the idea that Roe v wade being legal weakens it as a base-motivating tool. "Vote for us so we can ban babymurder" is killer propaganda but "vote for us or babymurder will become legal" is still gonna get the misogynists and theocrats to turn out.

it miiight give moderates who don't believe that roe v wade would really be overturned less room to lie to themselves, but i feel like those people are truly dedicated to believing bad things don't happen, and that they would pivot to diet anti-choice positions instead of learning to care about things.