US PoliERA 2019 |OT4| Folded like a DOG

NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,068
A big part of it is still name recognition.

Biden is also the most inoffensive option though and I could actually see him racking up a pretty big EC margin just from white people not wanting to fight about it at Thanksgiving.
Yep. Biden benefits, too, from being like Trump was: something you can project whatever you want onto it. Those in the political middle like that.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,795
A big part of it is still name recognition.

Biden is also the most inoffensive option though and I could actually see him racking up a pretty big EC margin just from white people not wanting to fight about it at Thanksgiving.
Hope so

But yeah...maybe there’s just a whole lot of Megan McCains out there ...

Ugh
 

RustyNails

Member
Oct 26, 2017
7,942
A big part of it is still name recognition.

Biden is also the most inoffensive option though and I could actually see him racking up a pretty big EC margin just from white people not wanting to fight about it at Thanksgiving.
Only problem I see with Biden is that 2022 backlash is going to be massive. For some reason I don't see it with Bernie or Warren.
 

Ichthyosaurus

Banned
Dec 26, 2018
5,547

devSin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,976
No, not suggesting that at all, and they have to live with the consequences of their choice, lest I be misunderstood. It also doesn't mean Dems need to chase after them. I guess I don't know what we do with these rural places that Era seems content to burn to the ground and leave barren as revenge for years of GOP fuckery a la some modern day Sherman's March to the Sea.
They're burning in fires they set.

These people would all be dancing in the fields if it was just the minorities that were hurting. I'll forgive my fellow forum posters for not showing any sympathy when the pain and damage these people enable starts to affect them too.
 

Aaron

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,555
Only problem I see with Biden is that 2022 backlash is going to be massive. For some reason I don't see it with Bernie or Warren.
Eh, I kind of see it differently. Biden’s base probably wouldn’t be as enthused, but there might be a bigger backlash against Sanders or Warren.

If 2020 is a Democratic win it needs to be a priority from like, minute one to keep an eye on 2022. There should be no reason why we can’t make Senate gains if the GOP could under Trump. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, all of those will be up and stand a decent chance at being open. (Arizona too, but let’s hope we’re playing defense there)
 

Kirblar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,492
Looking at polling, it's pretty nuts there's almost no gender or age gap on abortion. You really only see differences in attitudes once you get into religious affiliation and ideology.

https://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/
Saw somewhere else via twitter that in the wake of the issue becoming partisan, women actively change parties based on their position, while men... just seem to have adopted the view of their party.
 

brainchild

GameXplain
Verified
Nov 25, 2017
6,487
Minnesota
Nah, it was just the raw data, but men being much more indifferent well, matches a lot about what we see anecdotally (GOP paying for mistresses to lose the baby, Dem males not being motivated to vote by the issue.)
Makes sense. [cis-gender] Men have the privilege of taking whatever position they want on the issue without it affecting their autonomy.
 
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aspiegamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,734
ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
Looking at polling, it's pretty nuts there's almost no gender or age gap on abortion. You really only see differences in attitudes once you get into religious affiliation and ideology.

https://www.pewforum.org/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/
Being an ignorant shithead knows no gender, but I think women are substantively more likely to be upset by actual bans (for understandable reasons). More pro-life hispanics makes sense, too, on faith if nothing else.

"Conservative republican" is somehow worse than straight evangelical? Huh. So I can't actually blame the American Jeezus folk the most outright? Surprising.
 

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
10,558
London
Being an ignorant shithead knows no gender, but I think women are substantively more likely to be upset by actual bans (for understandable reasons). More pro-life hispanics makes sense, too, on faith if nothing else.

"Conservative republican" is somehow worse than straight evangelical? Huh. So I can't actually blame the American Jeezus folk the most outright? Surprising.
Looking at that Pew poll for the first time there's not a single group other than Evangelicals that Rs are winning with this insane "no exceptions" bill.

What an anchor for 2020, certainly if it goes to the SC.
 
Oct 26, 2017
1,872
Yeah the GOP is rapidly in a situation where the dog actually catches the car.

A lot of establishment Republicans have used "Pro-Life" advocacy purely as a stick to motivate evangelicals and keep them in the GOP's pocket. Republicans have kept stoking the issue to help them stack the courts with conservative judges. But in the midst of their zeal, they started to drink the Kool-Aid and they began equating "Pro-Life" with "Banning Abortion" and assumed it was a 50/50 issue nationwide. But it's not. Sure, a near majority of the public may consider themselves "Pro Life" in an informal sense and believe abortions should be a deliberate decision, but a supermajority of the public nationwide believe abortion should be legal and accessible.

This Alabama law is going to expose just how many people are Pro-Life but also believe abortions shouldn't be banned wholesale. This law is a gift for Democrats. It's not just "fear mongering" saying the GOP is trying to ban abortion, we now have a concrete example of a state banning abortion and trying to use it as a vehicle to ban it nationwide. It's why there's been crickets from Republicans in Congress about the Alabama law, none of them want to defend it directly but ironically this is the logical conclusion for what they've been fighting for nearly 40 years. Like I said, when the dog catches the car.
 

Ac30

Member
Oct 30, 2017
10,558
London
This Alabama law is going to expose just how many people are Pro-Life but also believe abortions shouldn't be banned wholesale. This law is a gift for Democrats. It's not just "fear mongering" saying the GOP is trying to ban abortion, we now have a concrete example of a state banning abortion and trying to use it as a vehicle to ban it nationwide. It's why there's been crickets from Republicans in Congress about the Alabama law, none of them want to defend it directly but ironically this is the logical conclusion for what they've been fighting for nearly 40 years. Like I said, when the dog catches the car.
When even far-right evangelical pastors are criticising your bill you know you fucked up.

This is now nationwide news, nice one 'bama.
 

thepotatoman

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,107
Denver
A big part of it is still name recognition.

Biden is also the most inoffensive option though and I could actually see him racking up a pretty big EC margin just from white people not wanting to fight about it at Thanksgiving.
Inoffensive right now. I think democrats are underestimating how his flaws will be attacked in the general in a way that won't in the primary. It takes a GOP level of disingenuousness to really take advantage of Ukraine and Foot in Mouth syndrome, and there's so much there that can be made to look really bad.
 

Y2Kev

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,768
Biden is definitely going to win the nomination IMO and will probably be a meaningful favorite to win the presidency. Just what I think. IMO. IMOIMO. I'm just BIDEN MY TIME! That should be his slogan.

We're Biden Our Time for Biden!

People are waiting for his "gaffes" to come out and bite him like a gaffe was what sunk him in the past and not the fact that he sucks. But now he has the sheen of not sucking.
 

Autodidact

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,489
That's 31% of Republicans, which means not even a third of his own party agrees.

11% of Republicans saying he should refuse to recognize the results is also much lower than I'd have anticipated.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,834
All of these people joining the race thinking they are going to win after Biden entered are more delusional than Tootsie.


Florida doing CNN/MSNBC's job for them.
 

Aaron

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,555
That's 31% of Republicans, which means not even a third of his own party agrees.

11% of Republicans saying he should refuse to recognize the results is also much lower than I'd have anticipated.
tbh and not to excuse the shittiness of that, but I bet you’d get somewhat similar numbers from Democrats as well if you’d asked that near the end of Obama’s term.
 

thefro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,172
All of these people joining the race thinking they are going to win after Biden entered are more delusional than Tootsie.


Florida doing CNN/MSNBC's job for them.
We really need to bring back the fairness doctrine when they can put crap like this on the public airwaves with nothing even close to equal time.
 

Blader

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,552
also, the Booker campaign urging people to donate to Gillibrand so she qualifies for the debates might be a gesture of goodwill between rivals but man that is kind of humiliating for her campaign.
 

Psamtik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,159
Only problem I see with Biden is that 2022 backlash is going to be massive. For some reason I don't see it with Bernie or Warren.
I don't know; if Bernie were to win it, I think at least some of his supporters would be disappointed at his inability to completely dismantle and replace our political and economic systems.

I bet it still really pisses him off that Obama has forty million followers on him.